Accidents in engineered systems are usually generated by complex socio-technical factors.It is beneficial to investigate the increasing complexity and coupling of these factors from the perspective of system safety.Ba...Accidents in engineered systems are usually generated by complex socio-technical factors.It is beneficial to investigate the increasing complexity and coupling of these factors from the perspective of system safety.Based on system and control theories,System-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes(STAMP)is a widely recognized approach for accident analysis.In this paper,we propose a STAMP-Game model to analyze accidents in oil and gas storage and transportation systems.Stakeholders in accident analysis by STAMP can be regarded as players of a game.Game theory can,thus,be adopted in accident analysis to depict the competition and cooperation between stakeholders.Subsequently,we established a game model to study the strategies of both supervisory and supervised entities.The obtained results demonstrate that the proposed game model allows for identifying the effectiveness deficiency of the supervisory entity,and the safety and protection altitudes of the supervised entity.The STAMP-Game model can generate quantitative parameters for supporting the behavior and strategy selections of the supervisory and supervised entities.The quantitative data obtained can be used to guide the safety improvement,to reduce the costs of safety regulation violation and accident risk.展开更多
The phenomenology involved in severe accidents in nuclear reactors is highly complex.Currently,integrated analysis programs used for severe accident analysis heavily rely on custom empirical parameters,which introduce...The phenomenology involved in severe accidents in nuclear reactors is highly complex.Currently,integrated analysis programs used for severe accident analysis heavily rely on custom empirical parameters,which introduce considerable uncertainty.Therefore,in recent years,the field of severe accidents has shifted its focus toward applying uncertainty analysis methods to quantify uncertainty in safety assessment programs,known as“best estimate plus uncertainty(BEPU).”This approach aids in enhancing our comprehension of these programs and their further development and improvement.This study concentrates on a third-generation pressurized water reactor equipped with advanced active and passive mitigation strategies.Through an Integrated Severe Accident Analysis Program(ISAA),numerical modeling and uncertainty analysis were conducted on severe accidents resulting from large break loss of coolant accidents.Seventeen uncertainty parameters of the ISAA program were meticulously screened.Using Wilks'formula,the developed uncertainty program code,SAUP,was employed to carry out Latin hypercube sampling,while ISAA was employed to execute batch calculations.Statistical analysis was then conducted on two figures of merit,namely hydrogen generation and the release of fission products within the pressure vessel.Uncertainty calculations revealed that hydrogen production and the fraction of fission product released exhibited a normal distribution,ranging from 182.784 to 330.664 kg and from 15.6 to 84.3%,respectively.The ratio of hydrogen production to reactor thermal power fell within the range of 0.0578–0.105.A sensitivity analysis was performed for uncertain input parameters,revealing significant correlations between the failure temperature of the cladding oxide layer,maximum melt flow rate,size of the particulate debris,and porosity of the debris with both hydrogen generation and the release of fission products.展开更多
The reliability expression of dynamic driving behavior is derived from the driving shaping behavioural model; and then, in accordance with the combination of computer simulation and mathematical expression of driving ...The reliability expression of dynamic driving behavior is derived from the driving shaping behavioural model; and then, in accordance with the combination of computer simulation and mathematical expression of driving reliability, an approach for assessing the effect of driving erroneous actions on the dynamic performance of the driver vehicle system is presented. The analysis of driving erroneous actions in the driver vehicle system has been performed to show that the reliability during perception with variety widely could result in the incidents and/or accidents in traffic system.展开更多
In the scenario of a steam generator tube rupture accident in a lead-cooled fast reactor,secondary circuit subcooled water under high pressure is injected into an ordinary-pressure primary vessel,where a molten lead-b...In the scenario of a steam generator tube rupture accident in a lead-cooled fast reactor,secondary circuit subcooled water under high pressure is injected into an ordinary-pressure primary vessel,where a molten lead-based alloy(typically pure lead or lead-bismuth eutectic(LBE))is used as the coolant.To clarify the pressure build-up characteristics under water-jet injection,this study conducted several experiments by injecting pressurized water into a molten LBE pool at Sun Yat-sen University.To obtain a further understanding,several new experimental parameters were adopted,including the melt temperature,water subcooling,injection pressure,injection duration,and nozzle diameter.Through detailed analyses,it was found that the pressure and temperature during the water-melt interaction exhibited a consistent variation trend with our previous water-droplet injection mode LBE experiment.Similarly,the existence of a steam explosion was confirmed,which typically results in a much stronger pressure build-up.For the non-explosion cases,increasing the injection pressure,melt-pool temperature,nozzle diameter,and water subcooling promoted pressure build-up in the melt pool.However,a limited enhancement effect was observed when increasing the injection duration,which may be owing to the continually rising pressure in the interaction vessel or the isolation effect of the generated steam cavity.Regardless of whether a steam explosion occurred,the calculated mechanical and kinetic energy conversion efficiencies of the melt were relatively small(not exceeding 4.1%and 0.7%,respectively).Moreover,the range of the conversion efficiency was similar to that of previous water-droplet experiments,although the upper limit of the jet mode was slightly lower.展开更多
A comparative study is conducted to compare the theory and application effect of two accident causation models, the human factors analysis and classification system（HFACS） and the accident causation ＂2-4＂ model（2...A comparative study is conducted to compare the theory and application effect of two accident causation models, the human factors analysis and classification system（HFACS） and the accident causation ＂2-4＂ model（24 Model）, as well as to provide a reference for safety researchers and accident investigators to select an appropriate accident analysis method. The two models are compared in terms of their theoretical foundations, cause classifications, accident analysis processes, application ranges, and accident prevention strategies. A coal and gas outburst accident is then analyzed using both models, and the application results are compared. This study shows that both the 24 Model and HFACS have strong theoretical foundations, and they can each be applied in various domains. In addition, the cause classification in HFACS is more practical, and its accident analysis process is more convenient. On the other hand, the 24 Model includes external factors, which makes the cause analysis more systematic and comprehensive. Moreover, the 24 Model puts forward more corresponding measures to prevent accidents.展开更多
Accident causation analysis is of great importance for accident prevention.In order to improve the aviation safety,a new analysis method of aviation accident causation based on complex network theory is proposed in th...Accident causation analysis is of great importance for accident prevention.In order to improve the aviation safety,a new analysis method of aviation accident causation based on complex network theory is proposed in this paper.Through selecting 257 accident investigation reports,45 causative factors and nine accident types are obtained by the three-level coding process of the grounded theory,and the interaction of these factors is analyzed based on the“2-4”model.Accordingly,the aviation accident causation network is constructed based on complex network theory which has scale-free characteristics and small-world properties,the characteristics of causative factors are analyzed by the topology of the network,and the key causative factors of the accidents are identified by the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS)method.The comparison results show that the method proposed in this paper has the advantages of independent of expert experience,quantitative analysis of accident causative factors and statistical analysis of a lot of accident data,and it has better applicability and advancement.展开更多
In this paper, a new model is constructed for the causation analysis of railway accident based on the complex network theory. In the model, the nodes are defined as various manifest or latent accident causal factors. ...In this paper, a new model is constructed for the causation analysis of railway accident based on the complex network theory. In the model, the nodes are defined as various manifest or latent accident causal factors. By employing the complex network theory, especially its statistical indicators, the railway accident as well as its key causations can be analyzed from the overall perspective. As a case, the ＂7.23＂ China-Yongwen railway accident is illustrated based on this model. The results show that the inspection of signals and the checking of line conditions before trains run played an important role in this railway accident. In conclusion, the constructed model gives a theoretical clue for railway accident prediction and, hence, greatly reduces the occurrence of railway accidents.展开更多
To mitigate consequences of core melting,an ex-vessel core catcher is investigated in this study.Instructions should be obeyed to cool down the corium caused by core melting.The corium destroys the reactor containment...To mitigate consequences of core melting,an ex-vessel core catcher is investigated in this study.Instructions should be obeyed to cool down the corium caused by core melting.The corium destroys the reactor containment and causes radioactive materials to be released into the environment if it does not cool down well.It is important to build a core catcher system for the reception,localization,and cool down of the molten corium during a severe accident resulting from core melting.In this study,the role of a core catcher in the VVER-1000/v528 reactor containment during a station black out(SBO)accident is evaluated using the MELCOR1.8.6 code.In addition,parametric analyses of the SBO for(i)SBO accidents with emergency core cooling system(ECCS)operation,and(ii)without ECCS operation are performed.Furthermore,thermal–hydraulic analyses in dry and wet cavities with/without water are conducted.The investigations include the reduction of gases resulting from molten–corium–concrete interactions(H_(2),CO,CO_(2)).Core melting,gas production,and the pressure/temperature in the reactor containment are assessed.Additionally,a full investigation pertaining to gas release(H_(2),CO,CO_(2))and the pressure/temperature of the core catcher is performed.Based on MELCOR simulations,a core cavity and a perimeter water channel are the best options for corium cooling and a lower radionuclide release.This simulation is also theoretically investigated and discussed herein.The simulation results show that the core catcher system in addition to an internal sacrificial material reduces the containment pressure from 689 to 580 kPa and the corresponding temperature from 394 to 380 K.Furthermore,it is observed that the amount of gases produced,particularly hydrogen,decreased from 1698 to 1235 kg.Moreover,the presence of supporting systems,including an ECCS with a core catcher,prolonged the core melting time from 16,430 to 28,630 s(in an SBO accident)and significantly decreased the gases produced.展开更多
The thorium molten salt reactor–liquid fuel(TMSR-LF1) has inherent safety features. The accident occurrence possibility and their consequences are much lower for the TMSR-LF1 than that of traditional reactors.Based o...The thorium molten salt reactor–liquid fuel(TMSR-LF1) has inherent safety features. The accident occurrence possibility and their consequences are much lower for the TMSR-LF1 than that of traditional reactors.Based on accident analysis, the maximum credible accident and the radioactive source terms of the TMSR-LF1 were first estimated. Then, the total effective dose of the maximum credible accident was calculated. Based on calculations, the cover gas flow rate can significantly affect the radiation consequences of the maximum credible accident when it changes from 0 to 10 L/min. If no cover gas is flowing, a site-area emergency would be required within the range of 50–73 m from the reactor. In the case of cover gas flow, only an abnormal notification and an alert two emergency class would be required within the range of 50 m.展开更多
A severe accident in a marine nuclear reactor leads to radionuclide leakage,which causes hidden dangers to workers and has adverse effects of environmental pollution.It is necessary to propose a novel approach to radi...A severe accident in a marine nuclear reactor leads to radionuclide leakage,which causes hidden dangers to workers and has adverse effects of environmental pollution.It is necessary to propose a novel approach to radionuclide diffusion in a confined environment after a severe accident in a marine nuclear reactor.Therefore,this study proposes a new method for the severe accident analysis program MELCOR coupled with computational fluid dynamics scSTREAM to study radioactive diffusion in severe accidents.The radionuclide release fraction and temperature calculated by MELCOR were combined with the scSTREAM calculations to study the radionuclide diffusion behavior and the phenomenon of radionuclide diffusion in different space environments of the reactor under the conditions of varying wind velocities of the ventilation system and diffusion speed.The results show that the wind velocity of the ventilation system is very small or zero,and the turbulent diffusion of radionuclides is not obvious and diffuses slowly in the form of condensation sedimentation and gravity settlement.When the wind speed of the ventilation system increases,the flow of radionuclides meets the wall and forms eddy currents,affecting the time variation of radionuclides diffusing into chamber 2.The wind velocity of the ventilation system and the diffusion speed has opposite effects on the time variation trend of radionuclide diffusion into the four chambers.展开更多
To predict the thermal-hydraulic(T/H)parameters of the reactor core for liquid-metal-cooled fast reactors(LMFRs),especially under flow blockage accidents,we developed a subchannel code called KMC-FB.This code uses a t...To predict the thermal-hydraulic(T/H)parameters of the reactor core for liquid-metal-cooled fast reactors(LMFRs),especially under flow blockage accidents,we developed a subchannel code called KMC-FB.This code uses a time-dependent,four-equation,singlephase flow model together with a 3D heat conduction model for the fuel rods,which is solved by numerical methods based on the finite difference method with a staggered mesh.Owing to the local effect of the blockage on the flow field,low axial flow,increased forced crossflow,and backflow occur.To more accurately simulate this problem,we implemented a robust and novel solution method.We verified the code with a low-flow(~0.01 m/s)and large-scale blockage case.For the preliminary validation,we compared our results with the experimental data of the NACIE-UP BFPS blockage test and the KIT19ROD blockage test.The results revealed that KMC-FB has sufficient solution accuracy and can be used in future flow blockage analyses for LMFRs.展开更多
In order to reduce the accident rate of consumer-grade unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs)in daily use scenarios,the accident causes are analyzed based on the accident cases of consumer-grade UAVs.By extracting accident ca...In order to reduce the accident rate of consumer-grade unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs)in daily use scenarios,the accident causes are analyzed based on the accident cases of consumer-grade UAVs.By extracting accident causing factors based on the Grounded theory,the relationship between these factors is analyzed.The Bayesian network for consumer-grade UAV accidents is constructed.With the Grounded theory-Bayesian network,the probability of four types of accidents is inferred:fall,air collision,disappearance,and personal injury.With the posterior probability of each factor being reversely reasoned,the causal chain with the maximum probability of each accident is obtained.After the sensitivity of each factor is analyzed,the key nodes in the network accordingly are inferred.Then the causing factors of consumer-grade UAV accidents are analyzed.The results show that the probability of fall accident is the highest,the fall accident is associated with the probabilistic maximum causal chain of personal injury,and the sensitivity analysis results of each type of accident as the result node are inconsistent.展开更多
After the Fukushima disaster, interest in the evaluation of severe accidents in nuclear power plants and off-site consequences has significantly increased. Because experimental studies are difficult to conduct, comput...After the Fukushima disaster, interest in the evaluation of severe accidents in nuclear power plants and off-site consequences has significantly increased. Because experimental studies are difficult to conduct, computational methods play a substantial role in accident analysis. In this study, a severe accident in the Bushehr pressurized water reactor power plant caused by a station blackout with a total loss of alternating current power supply has been evaluated. This analysis presents the in-core damage of fuel rods and the release of fission products as well as the thermal hydraulic response of the station components during the loss of active emergency cooling systems. In this manner, a perfect model of the Bushehr nuclear power plant using the MELCOR code is prepared. The accident progression is simulated, and the thermal responses of the fuels and hydraulic components are presented. It is shown that, without operator intervention, steam generators will become dry in approximately 3000 s, and the heat sink of the reactor will be lost. The simulation results show that at approximately 8600 s, the upper parts of the core start melting. This model calculates the shortest available time for accident prevention and proves that the time available is sufficient for operator manual action to prevent a nuclear disaster.展开更多
In order to improve the forecasting precision of road accidents, by introducing Markov chains forecasting method, a grey-Markov model for forecasting road accidents is established based on grey forecasting method. The...In order to improve the forecasting precision of road accidents, by introducing Markov chains forecasting method, a grey-Markov model for forecasting road accidents is established based on grey forecasting method. The model combines the advantages of both grey forecasting method and Markov chains forecasting method, overcomes the influence of random fluctuation data on forecasting precision and widens the application scope of the grey forecasting. An application example is conducted to evaluate the grey-Markov model, which shows that the precision of the grey-Markov model is better than that of grey model in forecasting road accidents.展开更多
In order to discover the main causes of elevator group accidents in edge computing environment, a multi-dimensional data model of elevator accident data is established by using data cube technology, proposing and impl...In order to discover the main causes of elevator group accidents in edge computing environment, a multi-dimensional data model of elevator accident data is established by using data cube technology, proposing and implementing a method by combining classical Apriori algorithm with the model, digging out frequent items of elevator accident data to explore the main reasons for the occurrence of elevator accidents. In addition, a collaborative edge model of elevator accidents is set to achieve data sharing, making it possible to check the detail of each cause to confirm the causes of elevator accidents. Lastly the association rules are applied to find the law of elevator Accidents.展开更多
A loss-of-coolant accident(LOCA)is one of the basic design considerations for nuclear reactor safety analysis.A LOCA induces propagation of a depressurization wave in the coolant,exerting hydrodynamic forces on struct...A loss-of-coolant accident(LOCA)is one of the basic design considerations for nuclear reactor safety analysis.A LOCA induces propagation of a depressurization wave in the coolant,exerting hydrodynamic forces on structures viafiuid–structure interaction(FSI).The analysis of hydrodynamic forces on the core structures during a LOCA process is indispensable.We describe the implementation of a numerical strategy for prestressed structures.It consists of an initialization and a restarted transient analysis process,all implemented via the ANSYS Workbench by system coupling of ANSYS and Fluent.Our strategy is validated by making extensive comparisons of the pressures,displacements,and strains on various locations between the simulation and reported measurements.The approach is appealing for dynamic analysis of other prestressed structures,owing to the good popularity and acknowledgement of ANSYS and Fluent in both academia and industry.展开更多
Safety of underground ammunition storage is an important issue,especially during the accidental ignition of missiles.This work investigates the pressure and temperature distribution of the multi-layer underground ammu...Safety of underground ammunition storage is an important issue,especially during the accidental ignition of missiles.This work investigates the pressure and temperature distribution of the multi-layer underground ammunition storage with a pressure relief duct during the accidental ignition process of the missile.A large-scale experiment was carried out using a multi-layered restricted space with a pressure relief duct to simulate the underground ammunition store and a solid rocket motor to simulate the accidental ignition of the missile.The results show that when the motor gas mass flow increased by5.6 times,the maximum pressure of the ammunition storage increased by 5.87 times.At a certain motor flow rate,when the pressure relief exhaust area at the end of the relief duct was reduced by 1/2,the maximum pressure on the first layer did not change.But the rate of pressure relief was reduced and the time delayed for the pressure of ammunition store to drop to zero.In this experiment,when the motor ignition position was located in to the third layer ammunition chamber,the maximum pressure was reduced by 32.9%and also reduced the rate of change of pressure.In addition,for the experimental conditions,the theoretical analysis of the pressure relief of the ammunition storage is given by a simplified model.Based on the findings,some suggestions to the safety protection design of ammunition store are proposed.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.52004030)the R&D Program of Beijing Municipal Education Commission(Grant No.KM202310016003)the Exchange Program of High-end Foreign Experts of Ministry of Science and Technology,China(Grant No.G2022178013L)。
文摘Accidents in engineered systems are usually generated by complex socio-technical factors.It is beneficial to investigate the increasing complexity and coupling of these factors from the perspective of system safety.Based on system and control theories,System-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes(STAMP)is a widely recognized approach for accident analysis.In this paper,we propose a STAMP-Game model to analyze accidents in oil and gas storage and transportation systems.Stakeholders in accident analysis by STAMP can be regarded as players of a game.Game theory can,thus,be adopted in accident analysis to depict the competition and cooperation between stakeholders.Subsequently,we established a game model to study the strategies of both supervisory and supervised entities.The obtained results demonstrate that the proposed game model allows for identifying the effectiveness deficiency of the supervisory entity,and the safety and protection altitudes of the supervised entity.The STAMP-Game model can generate quantitative parameters for supporting the behavior and strategy selections of the supervisory and supervised entities.The quantitative data obtained can be used to guide the safety improvement,to reduce the costs of safety regulation violation and accident risk.
基金This work was supported financially by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.12375176).
文摘The phenomenology involved in severe accidents in nuclear reactors is highly complex.Currently,integrated analysis programs used for severe accident analysis heavily rely on custom empirical parameters,which introduce considerable uncertainty.Therefore,in recent years,the field of severe accidents has shifted its focus toward applying uncertainty analysis methods to quantify uncertainty in safety assessment programs,known as“best estimate plus uncertainty(BEPU).”This approach aids in enhancing our comprehension of these programs and their further development and improvement.This study concentrates on a third-generation pressurized water reactor equipped with advanced active and passive mitigation strategies.Through an Integrated Severe Accident Analysis Program(ISAA),numerical modeling and uncertainty analysis were conducted on severe accidents resulting from large break loss of coolant accidents.Seventeen uncertainty parameters of the ISAA program were meticulously screened.Using Wilks'formula,the developed uncertainty program code,SAUP,was employed to carry out Latin hypercube sampling,while ISAA was employed to execute batch calculations.Statistical analysis was then conducted on two figures of merit,namely hydrogen generation and the release of fission products within the pressure vessel.Uncertainty calculations revealed that hydrogen production and the fraction of fission product released exhibited a normal distribution,ranging from 182.784 to 330.664 kg and from 15.6 to 84.3%,respectively.The ratio of hydrogen production to reactor thermal power fell within the range of 0.0578–0.105.A sensitivity analysis was performed for uncertain input parameters,revealing significant correlations between the failure temperature of the cladding oxide layer,maximum melt flow rate,size of the particulate debris,and porosity of the debris with both hydrogen generation and the release of fission products.
文摘The reliability expression of dynamic driving behavior is derived from the driving shaping behavioural model; and then, in accordance with the combination of computer simulation and mathematical expression of driving reliability, an approach for assessing the effect of driving erroneous actions on the dynamic performance of the driver vehicle system is presented. The analysis of driving erroneous actions in the driver vehicle system has been performed to show that the reliability during perception with variety widely could result in the incidents and/or accidents in traffic system.
基金supported by Basic and Applied Basic research foundation of Guangdong province(Nos.2021A1515010343 and 2022A1515011582)the Science and Technology Program of Guangdong Province(Nos.2021A0505030026 and 2022A0505050029).
文摘In the scenario of a steam generator tube rupture accident in a lead-cooled fast reactor,secondary circuit subcooled water under high pressure is injected into an ordinary-pressure primary vessel,where a molten lead-based alloy(typically pure lead or lead-bismuth eutectic(LBE))is used as the coolant.To clarify the pressure build-up characteristics under water-jet injection,this study conducted several experiments by injecting pressurized water into a molten LBE pool at Sun Yat-sen University.To obtain a further understanding,several new experimental parameters were adopted,including the melt temperature,water subcooling,injection pressure,injection duration,and nozzle diameter.Through detailed analyses,it was found that the pressure and temperature during the water-melt interaction exhibited a consistent variation trend with our previous water-droplet injection mode LBE experiment.Similarly,the existence of a steam explosion was confirmed,which typically results in a much stronger pressure build-up.For the non-explosion cases,increasing the injection pressure,melt-pool temperature,nozzle diameter,and water subcooling promoted pressure build-up in the melt pool.However,a limited enhancement effect was observed when increasing the injection duration,which may be owing to the continually rising pressure in the interaction vessel or the isolation effect of the generated steam cavity.Regardless of whether a steam explosion occurred,the calculated mechanical and kinetic energy conversion efficiencies of the melt were relatively small(not exceeding 4.1%and 0.7%,respectively).Moreover,the range of the conversion efficiency was similar to that of previous water-droplet experiments,although the upper limit of the jet mode was slightly lower.
基金support from the State Key Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51534008)
文摘A comparative study is conducted to compare the theory and application effect of two accident causation models, the human factors analysis and classification system（HFACS） and the accident causation ＂2-4＂ model（24 Model）, as well as to provide a reference for safety researchers and accident investigators to select an appropriate accident analysis method. The two models are compared in terms of their theoretical foundations, cause classifications, accident analysis processes, application ranges, and accident prevention strategies. A coal and gas outburst accident is then analyzed using both models, and the application results are compared. This study shows that both the 24 Model and HFACS have strong theoretical foundations, and they can each be applied in various domains. In addition, the cause classification in HFACS is more practical, and its accident analysis process is more convenient. On the other hand, the 24 Model includes external factors, which makes the cause analysis more systematic and comprehensive. Moreover, the 24 Model puts forward more corresponding measures to prevent accidents.
基金supported by the Civil Aviation Joint Fund of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.U1533112)。
文摘Accident causation analysis is of great importance for accident prevention.In order to improve the aviation safety,a new analysis method of aviation accident causation based on complex network theory is proposed in this paper.Through selecting 257 accident investigation reports,45 causative factors and nine accident types are obtained by the three-level coding process of the grounded theory,and the interaction of these factors is analyzed based on the“2-4”model.Accordingly,the aviation accident causation network is constructed based on complex network theory which has scale-free characteristics and small-world properties,the characteristics of causative factors are analyzed by the topology of the network,and the key causative factors of the accidents are identified by the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS)method.The comparison results show that the method proposed in this paper has the advantages of independent of expert experience,quantitative analysis of accident causative factors and statistical analysis of a lot of accident data,and it has better applicability and advancement.
基金Project supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (Grant No.2011AA110502)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.71271022)the Research Foundation of State Key Laboratory of Rail Traffic Control and Safety,China (Grant No.RCS2012ZQ001)
文摘In this paper, a new model is constructed for the causation analysis of railway accident based on the complex network theory. In the model, the nodes are defined as various manifest or latent accident causal factors. By employing the complex network theory, especially its statistical indicators, the railway accident as well as its key causations can be analyzed from the overall perspective. As a case, the ＂7.23＂ China-Yongwen railway accident is illustrated based on this model. The results show that the inspection of signals and the checking of line conditions before trains run played an important role in this railway accident. In conclusion, the constructed model gives a theoretical clue for railway accident prediction and, hence, greatly reduces the occurrence of railway accidents.
文摘To mitigate consequences of core melting,an ex-vessel core catcher is investigated in this study.Instructions should be obeyed to cool down the corium caused by core melting.The corium destroys the reactor containment and causes radioactive materials to be released into the environment if it does not cool down well.It is important to build a core catcher system for the reception,localization,and cool down of the molten corium during a severe accident resulting from core melting.In this study,the role of a core catcher in the VVER-1000/v528 reactor containment during a station black out(SBO)accident is evaluated using the MELCOR1.8.6 code.In addition,parametric analyses of the SBO for(i)SBO accidents with emergency core cooling system(ECCS)operation,and(ii)without ECCS operation are performed.Furthermore,thermal–hydraulic analyses in dry and wet cavities with/without water are conducted.The investigations include the reduction of gases resulting from molten–corium–concrete interactions(H_(2),CO,CO_(2)).Core melting,gas production,and the pressure/temperature in the reactor containment are assessed.Additionally,a full investigation pertaining to gas release(H_(2),CO,CO_(2))and the pressure/temperature of the core catcher is performed.Based on MELCOR simulations,a core cavity and a perimeter water channel are the best options for corium cooling and a lower radionuclide release.This simulation is also theoretically investigated and discussed herein.The simulation results show that the core catcher system in addition to an internal sacrificial material reduces the containment pressure from 689 to 580 kPa and the corresponding temperature from 394 to 380 K.Furthermore,it is observed that the amount of gases produced,particularly hydrogen,decreased from 1698 to 1235 kg.Moreover,the presence of supporting systems,including an ECCS with a core catcher,prolonged the core melting time from 16,430 to 28,630 s(in an SBO accident)and significantly decreased the gases produced.
文摘The thorium molten salt reactor–liquid fuel(TMSR-LF1) has inherent safety features. The accident occurrence possibility and their consequences are much lower for the TMSR-LF1 than that of traditional reactors.Based on accident analysis, the maximum credible accident and the radioactive source terms of the TMSR-LF1 were first estimated. Then, the total effective dose of the maximum credible accident was calculated. Based on calculations, the cover gas flow rate can significantly affect the radiation consequences of the maximum credible accident when it changes from 0 to 10 L/min. If no cover gas is flowing, a site-area emergency would be required within the range of 50–73 m from the reactor. In the case of cover gas flow, only an abnormal notification and an alert two emergency class would be required within the range of 50 m.
基金supported by the Postgraduate Scientific Research Innovation Project of Hunan Province (No. CX20210922)
文摘A severe accident in a marine nuclear reactor leads to radionuclide leakage,which causes hidden dangers to workers and has adverse effects of environmental pollution.It is necessary to propose a novel approach to radionuclide diffusion in a confined environment after a severe accident in a marine nuclear reactor.Therefore,this study proposes a new method for the severe accident analysis program MELCOR coupled with computational fluid dynamics scSTREAM to study radioactive diffusion in severe accidents.The radionuclide release fraction and temperature calculated by MELCOR were combined with the scSTREAM calculations to study the radionuclide diffusion behavior and the phenomenon of radionuclide diffusion in different space environments of the reactor under the conditions of varying wind velocities of the ventilation system and diffusion speed.The results show that the wind velocity of the ventilation system is very small or zero,and the turbulent diffusion of radionuclides is not obvious and diffuses slowly in the form of condensation sedimentation and gravity settlement.When the wind speed of the ventilation system increases,the flow of radionuclides meets the wall and forms eddy currents,affecting the time variation of radionuclides diffusing into chamber 2.The wind velocity of the ventilation system and the diffusion speed has opposite effects on the time variation trend of radionuclide diffusion into the four chambers.
文摘To predict the thermal-hydraulic(T/H)parameters of the reactor core for liquid-metal-cooled fast reactors(LMFRs),especially under flow blockage accidents,we developed a subchannel code called KMC-FB.This code uses a time-dependent,four-equation,singlephase flow model together with a 3D heat conduction model for the fuel rods,which is solved by numerical methods based on the finite difference method with a staggered mesh.Owing to the local effect of the blockage on the flow field,low axial flow,increased forced crossflow,and backflow occur.To more accurately simulate this problem,we implemented a robust and novel solution method.We verified the code with a low-flow(~0.01 m/s)and large-scale blockage case.For the preliminary validation,we compared our results with the experimental data of the NACIE-UP BFPS blockage test and the KIT19ROD blockage test.The results revealed that KMC-FB has sufficient solution accuracy and can be used in future flow blockage analyses for LMFRs.
基金supported by the Fun⁃damental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.3122022103).
文摘In order to reduce the accident rate of consumer-grade unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs)in daily use scenarios,the accident causes are analyzed based on the accident cases of consumer-grade UAVs.By extracting accident causing factors based on the Grounded theory,the relationship between these factors is analyzed.The Bayesian network for consumer-grade UAV accidents is constructed.With the Grounded theory-Bayesian network,the probability of four types of accidents is inferred:fall,air collision,disappearance,and personal injury.With the posterior probability of each factor being reversely reasoned,the causal chain with the maximum probability of each accident is obtained.After the sensitivity of each factor is analyzed,the key nodes in the network accordingly are inferred.Then the causing factors of consumer-grade UAV accidents are analyzed.The results show that the probability of fall accident is the highest,the fall accident is associated with the probabilistic maximum causal chain of personal injury,and the sensitivity analysis results of each type of accident as the result node are inconsistent.
基金indebted to Shahid Beheshti University G. C. for partial support of this work
文摘After the Fukushima disaster, interest in the evaluation of severe accidents in nuclear power plants and off-site consequences has significantly increased. Because experimental studies are difficult to conduct, computational methods play a substantial role in accident analysis. In this study, a severe accident in the Bushehr pressurized water reactor power plant caused by a station blackout with a total loss of alternating current power supply has been evaluated. This analysis presents the in-core damage of fuel rods and the release of fission products as well as the thermal hydraulic response of the station components during the loss of active emergency cooling systems. In this manner, a perfect model of the Bushehr nuclear power plant using the MELCOR code is prepared. The accident progression is simulated, and the thermal responses of the fuels and hydraulic components are presented. It is shown that, without operator intervention, steam generators will become dry in approximately 3000 s, and the heat sink of the reactor will be lost. The simulation results show that at approximately 8600 s, the upper parts of the core start melting. This model calculates the shortest available time for accident prevention and proves that the time available is sufficient for operator manual action to prevent a nuclear disaster.
文摘In order to improve the forecasting precision of road accidents, by introducing Markov chains forecasting method, a grey-Markov model for forecasting road accidents is established based on grey forecasting method. The model combines the advantages of both grey forecasting method and Markov chains forecasting method, overcomes the influence of random fluctuation data on forecasting precision and widens the application scope of the grey forecasting. An application example is conducted to evaluate the grey-Markov model, which shows that the precision of the grey-Markov model is better than that of grey model in forecasting road accidents.
文摘In order to discover the main causes of elevator group accidents in edge computing environment, a multi-dimensional data model of elevator accident data is established by using data cube technology, proposing and implementing a method by combining classical Apriori algorithm with the model, digging out frequent items of elevator accident data to explore the main reasons for the occurrence of elevator accidents. In addition, a collaborative edge model of elevator accidents is set to achieve data sharing, making it possible to check the detail of each cause to confirm the causes of elevator accidents. Lastly the association rules are applied to find the law of elevator Accidents.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.11972277 and 11872060)。
文摘A loss-of-coolant accident(LOCA)is one of the basic design considerations for nuclear reactor safety analysis.A LOCA induces propagation of a depressurization wave in the coolant,exerting hydrodynamic forces on structures viafiuid–structure interaction(FSI).The analysis of hydrodynamic forces on the core structures during a LOCA process is indispensable.We describe the implementation of a numerical strategy for prestressed structures.It consists of an initialization and a restarted transient analysis process,all implemented via the ANSYS Workbench by system coupling of ANSYS and Fluent.Our strategy is validated by making extensive comparisons of the pressures,displacements,and strains on various locations between the simulation and reported measurements.The approach is appealing for dynamic analysis of other prestressed structures,owing to the good popularity and acknowledgement of ANSYS and Fluent in both academia and industry.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant number:NSFC11572095)。
文摘Safety of underground ammunition storage is an important issue,especially during the accidental ignition of missiles.This work investigates the pressure and temperature distribution of the multi-layer underground ammunition storage with a pressure relief duct during the accidental ignition process of the missile.A large-scale experiment was carried out using a multi-layered restricted space with a pressure relief duct to simulate the underground ammunition store and a solid rocket motor to simulate the accidental ignition of the missile.The results show that when the motor gas mass flow increased by5.6 times,the maximum pressure of the ammunition storage increased by 5.87 times.At a certain motor flow rate,when the pressure relief exhaust area at the end of the relief duct was reduced by 1/2,the maximum pressure on the first layer did not change.But the rate of pressure relief was reduced and the time delayed for the pressure of ammunition store to drop to zero.In this experiment,when the motor ignition position was located in to the third layer ammunition chamber,the maximum pressure was reduced by 32.9%and also reduced the rate of change of pressure.In addition,for the experimental conditions,the theoretical analysis of the pressure relief of the ammunition storage is given by a simplified model.Based on the findings,some suggestions to the safety protection design of ammunition store are proposed.
