The rapid integration of Internet of Things(IoT)technologies is reshaping the global energy landscape by deploying smart meters that enable high-resolution consumption monitoring,two-way communication,and advanced met...The rapid integration of Internet of Things(IoT)technologies is reshaping the global energy landscape by deploying smart meters that enable high-resolution consumption monitoring,two-way communication,and advanced metering infrastructure services.However,this digital transformation also exposes power system to evolving threats,ranging from cyber intrusions and electricity theft to device malfunctions,and the unpredictable nature of these anomalies,coupled with the scarcity of labeled fault data,makes realtime detection exceptionally challenging.To address these difficulties,a real-time decision support framework is presented for smart meter anomality detection that leverages rolling time windows and two self-supervised contrastive learning modules.The first module synthesizes diverse negative samples to overcome the lack of labeled anomalies,while the second captures intrinsic temporal patterns for enhanced contextual discrimination.The end-to-end framework continuously updates its model with rolling updated meter data to deliver timely identification of emerging abnormal behaviors in evolving grids.Extensive evaluations on eight publicly available smart meter datasets over seven diverse abnormal patterns testing demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed full framework,achieving average recall and F1 score of more than 0.85.展开更多
Load forecasting is of great significance to the development of new power systems.With the advancement of smart grids,the integration and distribution of distributed renewable energy sources and power electronics devi...Load forecasting is of great significance to the development of new power systems.With the advancement of smart grids,the integration and distribution of distributed renewable energy sources and power electronics devices have made power load data increasingly complex and volatile.This places higher demands on the prediction and analysis of power loads.In order to improve the prediction accuracy of short-term power load,a CNN-BiLSTMTPA short-term power prediction model based on the Improved Whale Optimization Algorithm(IWOA)with mixed strategies was proposed.Firstly,the model combined the Convolutional Neural Network(CNN)with the Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Network(BiLSTM)to fully extract the spatio-temporal characteristics of the load data itself.Then,the Temporal Pattern Attention(TPA)mechanism was introduced into the CNN-BiLSTM model to automatically assign corresponding weights to the hidden states of the BiLSTM.This allowed the model to differentiate the importance of load sequences at different time intervals.At the same time,in order to solve the problem of the difficulties of selecting the parameters of the temporal model,and the poor global search ability of the whale algorithm,which is easy to fall into the local optimization,the whale algorithm(IWOA)was optimized by using the hybrid strategy of Tent chaos mapping and Levy flight strategy,so as to better search the parameters of the model.In this experiment,the real load data of a region in Zhejiang was taken as an example to analyze,and the prediction accuracy(R2)of the proposed method reached 98.83%.Compared with the prediction models such as BP,WOA-CNN-BiLSTM,SSA-CNN-BiLSTM,CNN-BiGRU-Attention,etc.,the experimental results showed that the model proposed in this study has a higher prediction accuracy.展开更多
Urban air pollution has brought great troubles to physical and mental health,economic development,environmental protection,and other aspects.Predicting the changes and trends of air pollution can provide a scientific ...Urban air pollution has brought great troubles to physical and mental health,economic development,environmental protection,and other aspects.Predicting the changes and trends of air pollution can provide a scientific basis for governance and prevention efforts.In this paper,we propose an interval prediction method that considers the spatio-temporal characteristic information of PM_(2.5)signals from multiple stations.K-nearest neighbor(KNN)algorithm interpolates the lost signals in the process of collection,transmission,and storage to ensure the continuity of data.Graph generative network(GGN)is used to process time-series meteorological data with complex structures.The graph U-Nets framework is introduced into the GGN model to enhance its controllability to the graph generation process,which is beneficial to improve the efficiency and robustness of the model.In addition,sparse Bayesian regression is incorporated to improve the dimensional disaster defect of traditional kernel density estimation(KDE)interval prediction.With the support of sparse strategy,sparse Bayesian regression kernel density estimation(SBR-KDE)is very efficient in processing high-dimensional large-scale data.The PM_(2.5)data of spring,summer,autumn,and winter from 34 air quality monitoring sites in Beijing verified the accuracy,generalization,and superiority of the proposed model in interval prediction.展开更多
This paper presents a novel artificial intelligence (AI) based approach to predict crucial meteorological parameters such as temperature,pressure,and wind speed,typically calculated from computationally intensive weat...This paper presents a novel artificial intelligence (AI) based approach to predict crucial meteorological parameters such as temperature,pressure,and wind speed,typically calculated from computationally intensive weather research and forecasting (WRF) model.Accurate meteorological data is indispensable for simulating the release of radioactive effluents,especially in dispersion modeling for nuclear emergency decision support systems.Simulation of meteorological conditions during nuclear emergencies using the conventional WRF model is very complex and time-consuming.Therefore,a new artificial neural network (ANN) based technique was proposed as a viable alternative for meteorological prediction.A multi-input multi-output neural network was trained using historical site-specific meteorological data to forecast the meteorological parameters.Comprehensive evaluation of this technique was conducted to test its performance in forecasting various parameters including atmospheric pressure,temperature,and wind speed components in both East-West and North-South directions.The performance of developed network was evaluated on an unknown dataset,and acquired results are within the acceptable range for all meteorological parameters.Results show that ANNs possess the capability to forecast meteorological parameters,such as temperature and pressure,at multiple spatial locations within a grid with high accuracy,utilizing input data from a single station.However,accuracy is slightly compromised when predicting wind speed components.Root mean square error (RMSE) was utilized to report the accuracy of predicted results,with values of 1.453℃for temperature,77 Pa for predicted pressure,1.058 m/s for the wind speed of U-component and 0.959 m/s for the wind speed of V-component.In conclusion,this approach offers a precise,efficient,and wellinformed method for administrative decision-making during nuclear emergencies.展开更多
[Objective]Urban floods are occurring more frequently because of global climate change and urbanization.Accordingly,urban rainstorm and flood forecasting has become a priority in urban hydrology research.However,two-d...[Objective]Urban floods are occurring more frequently because of global climate change and urbanization.Accordingly,urban rainstorm and flood forecasting has become a priority in urban hydrology research.However,two-dimensional hydrodynamic models execute calculations slowly,hindering the rapid simulation and forecasting of urban floods.To overcome this limitation and accelerate the speed and improve the accuracy of urban flood simulations and forecasting,numerical simulations and deep learning were combined to develop a more effective urban flood forecasting method.[Methods]Specifically,a cellular automata model was used to simulate the urban flood process and address the need to include a large number of datasets in the deep learning process.Meanwhile,to shorten the time required for urban flood forecasting,a convolutional neural network model was used to establish the mapping relationship between rainfall and inundation depth.[Results]The results show that the relative error of forecasting the maximum inundation depth in flood-prone locations is less than 10%,and the Nash efficiency coefficient of forecasting inundation depth series in flood-prone locations is greater than 0.75.[Conclusion]The result demonstrated that the proposed method could execute highly accurate simulations and quickly produce forecasts,illustrating its superiority as an urban flood forecasting technique.展开更多
A new methodology for multi-step-ahead forecasting was proposed herein which combined the wavelet transform(WT), artificial neural network(ANN) and forecasting strategies based on the changing characteristics of avail...A new methodology for multi-step-ahead forecasting was proposed herein which combined the wavelet transform(WT), artificial neural network(ANN) and forecasting strategies based on the changing characteristics of available parking spaces(APS). First, several APS time series were decomposed and reconstituted by the wavelet transform. Then, using an artificial neural network, the following five strategies for multi-step-ahead time series forecasting were used to forecast the reconstructed time series: recursive strategy, direct strategy, multi-input multi-output(MIMO) strategy, DIRMO strategy(a combination of the direct and MIMO strategies), and newly proposed recursive multi-input multi-output(RECMO) strategy which is a combination of the recursive and MIMO strategies. Finally, integrating the predicted results with the reconstructed time series produced the final forecasted available parking spaces. Three findings appear to be consistently supported by the experimental results. First, applying the wavelet transform to multi-step ahead available parking spaces forecasting can effectively improve the forecasting accuracy. Second, the forecasting resulted from the DIRMO and RECMO strategies is more accurate than that of the other strategies. Finally, the RECMO strategy requires less model training time than the DIRMO strategy and consumes the least amount of training time among five forecasting strategies.展开更多
This paper aims to study a new grey prediction approach and its solution for forecasting the main system variable whose accurate value could not be collected while the potential value set could be defined. Based on th...This paper aims to study a new grey prediction approach and its solution for forecasting the main system variable whose accurate value could not be collected while the potential value set could be defined. Based on the traditional nonhomogenous discrete grey forecasting model（NDGM）, the interval grey number and its algebra operations are redefined and combined with the NDGM model to construct a new interval grey number sequence prediction approach. The solving principle of the model is analyzed, the new accuracy evaluation indices, i.e. mean absolute percentage error of mean value sequence（MAPEM） and mean percent of interval sequence simulating value set covered（MPSVSC）, are defined and, the procedure of the interval grey number sequence based the NDGM（IG-NDGM） is given out. Finally, a numerical case is used to test the modelling accuracy of the proposed model. Results show that the proposed approach could solve the interval grey number sequence prediction problem and it is much better than the traditional DGM（1,1） model and GM（1,1） model.展开更多
The area of well rice in the sanjiang Plain is incresing recently.At the same time,the groundwater resource has been wasted.Thus,the resource of groundwater is shortening.More and more area appears the phenomenon of ...The area of well rice in the sanjiang Plain is incresing recently.At the same time,the groundwater resource has been wasted.Thus,the resource of groundwater is shortening.More and more area appears the phenomenon of “hanger pump” and “funnel”.According to these problems the paper adopts Chuang Ye farm as the research base,through handle the data of groundwater,applying GM(1,1) to forecasting the dynamic variation of groundwater.The writer hopes to provide some references about using groundwater resource of the area in the future for readers.展开更多
A new grey forecasting model based on BP neural network and Markov chain was proposed. In order to combine the grey forecasting model with neural network, an important theorem that the grey differential equation is eq...A new grey forecasting model based on BP neural network and Markov chain was proposed. In order to combine the grey forecasting model with neural network, an important theorem that the grey differential equation is equivalent to the time response model, was proved by analyzing the features of grey forecasting model（GM（1,1））. Based on this, the differential equation parameters were included in the network when the BP neural network was constructed, and the neural network was trained by extracting samples from grey system＇s known data. When BP network was converged, the whitened grey differential equation parameters were extracted and then the grey neural network forecasting model （GNNM（1,1）） was built. In order to reduce stochastic phenomenon in GNNM（1,1）, the state transition probability between two states was defined and the Markov transition matrix was established by building the residual sequences between grey forecasting and actual value. Thus, the new grey forecasting model（MNNGM（1,1）） was proposed by combining Markov chain with GNNM（1,1）. Based on the above discussion, three different approaches were put forward for forecasting China electricity demands. By comparing GM（1, 1） and GNNM（1,1） with the proposed model, the results indicate that the absolute mean error of MNNGM（1,1） is about 0.4 times of GNNM（1,1） and 0.2 times of GM（I, 1）, and the mean square error of MNNGM（1,1） is about 0.25 times of GNNM（1,1） and 0.1 times of GM（1,1）.展开更多
Due to global energy depletion,solar energy technology has been widely used in the world.The output power of the solar energy systems is affected by solar radiation.Accurate short-term forecasting of solar radiation c...Due to global energy depletion,solar energy technology has been widely used in the world.The output power of the solar energy systems is affected by solar radiation.Accurate short-term forecasting of solar radiation can ensure the safety of photovoltaic grids and improve the utilization efficiency of the solar energy systems.In the study,a new decomposition-boosting model using artificial intelligence is proposed to realize the solar radiation multi-step prediction.The proposed model includes four parts:signal decomposition(EWT),neural network(NARX),Adaboost and ARIMA.Three real solar radiation datasets from Changde,China were used to validate the efficiency of the proposed model.To verify the robustness of the multi-step prediction model,this experiment compared nine models and made 1,3,and 5 steps ahead predictions for the time series.It is verified that the proposed model has the best performance among all models.展开更多
Due to the nonlinearity and nonstationary of hydropower market data, a novel hybrid learning paradigm is proposed to predict hydropower consumption, by incorporating firefly algorithm （FA） into least square support ...Due to the nonlinearity and nonstationary of hydropower market data, a novel hybrid learning paradigm is proposed to predict hydropower consumption, by incorporating firefly algorithm （FA） into least square support vector regression （LSSVR）, i.e., FA-based LSSVR model. In the novel model, the powerful and effective artificial intelligence （AI） technique, i.e., LSSVR, is employed to forecast hydropower consumption. Furthermore, a promising AI optimization tool, i.e., FA, is espe- cially introduced to address the crucial but difficult task of parameters determination in LSSVR （e.g., hyper and kernel function parameters）. With the Chinese hydropower consumption as sample data, the empirical study has statistically confirmed the superiority of the novel FA-based LSSVR model to other benchmark models （including existing popular traditional econometric models, AI models and similar hybrid LSSVRs with other popular parameter searching tools）~ in terms of level and direc- tional accuracy. The empirical results also imply that the hybrid FA-based LSSVR learning paradigm with powerful forecasting tool and parameters optimization method can be employed as an effective forecasting tool for not only hydropower consumption but also other complex data.展开更多
In order to describe the characteristics of some systems, such as the process of economic and product forecasting, a lot of discrete data may be used. Although they are discrete, the inside law can be founded by some ...In order to describe the characteristics of some systems, such as the process of economic and product forecasting, a lot of discrete data may be used. Although they are discrete, the inside law can be founded by some methods. For a series that the discrete degree is large and the integrated tendency is ascending, a new method for grey forecasting model group is given by the grey system theory. The method is that it firstly transforms original data, chooses some clique values and divides original data into groups by different clique values; then, it establishes non-equigap GM(1,1) model for different groups and searches forecasting area of original data by the solution of model. At the end of the paper, the result of reliability of forecasting value is obtained. It is shown that the method is feasible.展开更多
To generate a test set for a given circuit (including both combinational and sequential circuits), choice of an algorithm within a number of existing test generation algorithms to apply is bound to vary from circuit t...To generate a test set for a given circuit (including both combinational and sequential circuits), choice of an algorithm within a number of existing test generation algorithms to apply is bound to vary from circuit to circuit. In this paper, the genetic algorithms are used to construct the models of existing test generation algorithms in making such choice more easily. Therefore, we may forecast the testability parameters of a circuit before using the real test generation algorithm. The results also can be used to evaluate the efficiency of the existing test generation algorithms. Experimental results are given to convince the readers of the truth and the usefulness of this approach.展开更多
To assess the water inflow which is more suitable to the actual conditions of tunnel,an empirical correlation about the permeability coefficient changing with depth is introduced.Supposing that the surrounding rock is...To assess the water inflow which is more suitable to the actual conditions of tunnel,an empirical correlation about the permeability coefficient changing with depth is introduced.Supposing that the surrounding rock is heterogeneous isotropy,the formula for calculating water inflow of tunnel with the nonlinear variation of permeability coefficient is deduced.By the contrast analysis with the existing formulas,the presented method has the similar value to them;moreover,the presented method has more simple form and easy to use.Due to parameter analysis,the water inflow decreases after considering the nonlinear variation of permeability coefficient.When the attenuation coefficient a>0,the water inflow increases first till reaches the maximum at a certain depth,then decreases and is close to 0 finally if deep enough.Thus,it is better to keep away from the certain depth where it is with the maximum water inflow for safe operation and economical construction,and reduce the water damage.Based on the analysis,the radius of tunnel has less impact on the amount of water inflow,and the water inflow just increases by 6.7% when the radius of tunnel increases by 1 m.展开更多
A combined model based on principal components analysis (PCA) and generalized regression neural network (GRNN) was adopted to forecast electricity price in day-ahead electricity market. PCA was applied to mine the mai...A combined model based on principal components analysis (PCA) and generalized regression neural network (GRNN) was adopted to forecast electricity price in day-ahead electricity market. PCA was applied to mine the main influence on day-ahead price, avoiding the strong correlation between the input factors that might influence electricity price, such as the load of the forecasting hour, other history loads and prices, weather and temperature; then GRNN was employed to forecast electricity price according to the main information extracted by PCA. To prove the efficiency of the combined model, a case from PJM (Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland) day-ahead electricity market was evaluated. Compared to back-propagation (BP) neural network and standard GRNN, the combined method reduces the mean absolute percentage error about 3%.展开更多
A time-series similarity measurement method based on wavelet and matrix transform was proposed,and its anti-noise ability,sensitivity and accuracy were discussed. The time-series sequences were compressed into wavelet...A time-series similarity measurement method based on wavelet and matrix transform was proposed,and its anti-noise ability,sensitivity and accuracy were discussed. The time-series sequences were compressed into wavelet subspace,and sample feature vector and orthogonal basics of sample time-series sequences were obtained by K-L transform. Then the inner product transform was carried out to project analyzed time-series sequence into orthogonal basics to gain analyzed feature vectors. The similarity was calculated between sample feature vector and analyzed feature vector by the Euclid distance. Taking fault wave of power electronic devices for example,the experimental results show that the proposed method has low dimension of feature vector,the anti-noise ability of proposed method is 30 times as large as that of plain wavelet method,the sensitivity of proposed method is 1/3 as large as that of plain wavelet method,and the accuracy of proposed method is higher than that of the wavelet singular value decomposition method. The proposed method can be applied in similarity matching and indexing for lager time series databases.展开更多
Considering the factors affecting the increasing rate of power consumption, the BP neural network structure and the neural network forecasting model of the increasing rate of power consumption were established. Immune...Considering the factors affecting the increasing rate of power consumption, the BP neural network structure and the neural network forecasting model of the increasing rate of power consumption were established. Immune genetic algorithm was applied to optimizing the weight from input layer to hidden layer, from hidden layer to output layer, and the threshold value of neuron nodes in hidden and output layers. Finally, training the related data of the increasing rate of power consumption from 1980 to 2000 in China, a nonlinear network model between the increasing rate of power consumption and influencing factors was obtained. The model was adopted to forecasting the increasing rate of power consumption from 2001 to 2005, and the average absolute error ratio of forecasting results is 13.521 8%. Compared with the ordinary neural network optimized by genetic algorithm, the results show that this method has better forecasting accuracy and stability for forecasting the increasing rate of power consumption.展开更多
The author considered the influences of several weather factors, such as air temperature, sunlight, saturation deficiency, wind speed and so on to forecasting the water requirement of well irrigation rice based on Art...The author considered the influences of several weather factors, such as air temperature, sunlight, saturation deficiency, wind speed and so on to forecasting the water requirement of well irrigation rice based on Artificial Neutron Network. Through dealing with the time series of water requirement and its influence factors, the author applied the multi-dimension data correlation analysis to ensure the net structure. Thus, the ANN model to forecast the water requirement of well irrigation rice has been built. By means of the ANN model, uncertainty relation between water requirement and many influence factors among the interior and exterior can be discovered. The results of ANN model is good, and can provide some references for establishing the water saving irrigation system.展开更多
To protect trains against strong cross-wind along Qinghai-Tibet railway, a strong wind speed monitoring and warning system was developed. And to obtain high-precision wind speed short-term forecasting values for the s...To protect trains against strong cross-wind along Qinghai-Tibet railway, a strong wind speed monitoring and warning system was developed. And to obtain high-precision wind speed short-term forecasting values for the system to make more accurate scheduling decision, two optimization algorithms were proposed. Using them to make calculative examples for actual wind speed time series from the 18th meteorological station, the results show that: the optimization algorithm based on wavelet analysis method and improved time series analysis method can attain high-precision multi-step forecasting values, the mean relative errors of one-step, three-step, five-step and ten-step forecasting are only 0.30%, 0.75%, 1.15% and 1.65%, respectively. The optimization algorithm based on wavelet analysis method and Kalman time series analysis method can obtain high-precision one-step forecasting values, the mean relative error of one-step forecasting is reduced by 61.67% to 0.115%. The two optimization algorithms both maintain the modeling simple character, and can attain prediction explicit equations after modeling calculation.展开更多
Short-term forecasting is a difficult problem because of the influence of non-linear factors and irregular events.A novel short-term forecasting method named TIK was proposed,in which ARMA forecasting model was used t...Short-term forecasting is a difficult problem because of the influence of non-linear factors and irregular events.A novel short-term forecasting method named TIK was proposed,in which ARMA forecasting model was used to consider the load time series trend forecasting,intelligence forecasting DESVR model was applied to estimate the non-linear influence,and knowledge mining methods were applied to correct the errors caused by irregular events.In order to prove the effectiveness of the proposed model,an application of the daily maximum load forecasting was evaluated.The experimental results show that the DESVR model improves the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) from 2.82% to 2.55%,and the knowledge rules can improve the MAPE from 2.55% to 2.30%.Compared with the single ARMA forecasting method and ARMA combined SVR forecasting method,it can be proved that TIK method gains the best performance in short-term load forecasting.展开更多
文摘The rapid integration of Internet of Things(IoT)technologies is reshaping the global energy landscape by deploying smart meters that enable high-resolution consumption monitoring,two-way communication,and advanced metering infrastructure services.However,this digital transformation also exposes power system to evolving threats,ranging from cyber intrusions and electricity theft to device malfunctions,and the unpredictable nature of these anomalies,coupled with the scarcity of labeled fault data,makes realtime detection exceptionally challenging.To address these difficulties,a real-time decision support framework is presented for smart meter anomality detection that leverages rolling time windows and two self-supervised contrastive learning modules.The first module synthesizes diverse negative samples to overcome the lack of labeled anomalies,while the second captures intrinsic temporal patterns for enhanced contextual discrimination.The end-to-end framework continuously updates its model with rolling updated meter data to deliver timely identification of emerging abnormal behaviors in evolving grids.Extensive evaluations on eight publicly available smart meter datasets over seven diverse abnormal patterns testing demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed full framework,achieving average recall and F1 score of more than 0.85.
文摘Load forecasting is of great significance to the development of new power systems.With the advancement of smart grids,the integration and distribution of distributed renewable energy sources and power electronics devices have made power load data increasingly complex and volatile.This places higher demands on the prediction and analysis of power loads.In order to improve the prediction accuracy of short-term power load,a CNN-BiLSTMTPA short-term power prediction model based on the Improved Whale Optimization Algorithm(IWOA)with mixed strategies was proposed.Firstly,the model combined the Convolutional Neural Network(CNN)with the Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Network(BiLSTM)to fully extract the spatio-temporal characteristics of the load data itself.Then,the Temporal Pattern Attention(TPA)mechanism was introduced into the CNN-BiLSTM model to automatically assign corresponding weights to the hidden states of the BiLSTM.This allowed the model to differentiate the importance of load sequences at different time intervals.At the same time,in order to solve the problem of the difficulties of selecting the parameters of the temporal model,and the poor global search ability of the whale algorithm,which is easy to fall into the local optimization,the whale algorithm(IWOA)was optimized by using the hybrid strategy of Tent chaos mapping and Levy flight strategy,so as to better search the parameters of the model.In this experiment,the real load data of a region in Zhejiang was taken as an example to analyze,and the prediction accuracy(R2)of the proposed method reached 98.83%.Compared with the prediction models such as BP,WOA-CNN-BiLSTM,SSA-CNN-BiLSTM,CNN-BiGRU-Attention,etc.,the experimental results showed that the model proposed in this study has a higher prediction accuracy.
基金Project(2020YFC2008605)supported by the National Key Research and Development Project of ChinaProject(52072412)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2021JJ30359)supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province,China。
文摘Urban air pollution has brought great troubles to physical and mental health,economic development,environmental protection,and other aspects.Predicting the changes and trends of air pollution can provide a scientific basis for governance and prevention efforts.In this paper,we propose an interval prediction method that considers the spatio-temporal characteristic information of PM_(2.5)signals from multiple stations.K-nearest neighbor(KNN)algorithm interpolates the lost signals in the process of collection,transmission,and storage to ensure the continuity of data.Graph generative network(GGN)is used to process time-series meteorological data with complex structures.The graph U-Nets framework is introduced into the GGN model to enhance its controllability to the graph generation process,which is beneficial to improve the efficiency and robustness of the model.In addition,sparse Bayesian regression is incorporated to improve the dimensional disaster defect of traditional kernel density estimation(KDE)interval prediction.With the support of sparse strategy,sparse Bayesian regression kernel density estimation(SBR-KDE)is very efficient in processing high-dimensional large-scale data.The PM_(2.5)data of spring,summer,autumn,and winter from 34 air quality monitoring sites in Beijing verified the accuracy,generalization,and superiority of the proposed model in interval prediction.
文摘This paper presents a novel artificial intelligence (AI) based approach to predict crucial meteorological parameters such as temperature,pressure,and wind speed,typically calculated from computationally intensive weather research and forecasting (WRF) model.Accurate meteorological data is indispensable for simulating the release of radioactive effluents,especially in dispersion modeling for nuclear emergency decision support systems.Simulation of meteorological conditions during nuclear emergencies using the conventional WRF model is very complex and time-consuming.Therefore,a new artificial neural network (ANN) based technique was proposed as a viable alternative for meteorological prediction.A multi-input multi-output neural network was trained using historical site-specific meteorological data to forecast the meteorological parameters.Comprehensive evaluation of this technique was conducted to test its performance in forecasting various parameters including atmospheric pressure,temperature,and wind speed components in both East-West and North-South directions.The performance of developed network was evaluated on an unknown dataset,and acquired results are within the acceptable range for all meteorological parameters.Results show that ANNs possess the capability to forecast meteorological parameters,such as temperature and pressure,at multiple spatial locations within a grid with high accuracy,utilizing input data from a single station.However,accuracy is slightly compromised when predicting wind speed components.Root mean square error (RMSE) was utilized to report the accuracy of predicted results,with values of 1.453℃for temperature,77 Pa for predicted pressure,1.058 m/s for the wind speed of U-component and 0.959 m/s for the wind speed of V-component.In conclusion,this approach offers a precise,efficient,and wellinformed method for administrative decision-making during nuclear emergencies.
文摘[Objective]Urban floods are occurring more frequently because of global climate change and urbanization.Accordingly,urban rainstorm and flood forecasting has become a priority in urban hydrology research.However,two-dimensional hydrodynamic models execute calculations slowly,hindering the rapid simulation and forecasting of urban floods.To overcome this limitation and accelerate the speed and improve the accuracy of urban flood simulations and forecasting,numerical simulations and deep learning were combined to develop a more effective urban flood forecasting method.[Methods]Specifically,a cellular automata model was used to simulate the urban flood process and address the need to include a large number of datasets in the deep learning process.Meanwhile,to shorten the time required for urban flood forecasting,a convolutional neural network model was used to establish the mapping relationship between rainfall and inundation depth.[Results]The results show that the relative error of forecasting the maximum inundation depth in flood-prone locations is less than 10%,and the Nash efficiency coefficient of forecasting inundation depth series in flood-prone locations is greater than 0.75.[Conclusion]The result demonstrated that the proposed method could execute highly accurate simulations and quickly produce forecasts,illustrating its superiority as an urban flood forecasting technique.
基金Project(51561135003)supported by the International Cooperation and Exchange of the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(51338003)supported by the Key Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘A new methodology for multi-step-ahead forecasting was proposed herein which combined the wavelet transform(WT), artificial neural network(ANN) and forecasting strategies based on the changing characteristics of available parking spaces(APS). First, several APS time series were decomposed and reconstituted by the wavelet transform. Then, using an artificial neural network, the following five strategies for multi-step-ahead time series forecasting were used to forecast the reconstructed time series: recursive strategy, direct strategy, multi-input multi-output(MIMO) strategy, DIRMO strategy(a combination of the direct and MIMO strategies), and newly proposed recursive multi-input multi-output(RECMO) strategy which is a combination of the recursive and MIMO strategies. Finally, integrating the predicted results with the reconstructed time series produced the final forecasted available parking spaces. Three findings appear to be consistently supported by the experimental results. First, applying the wavelet transform to multi-step ahead available parking spaces forecasting can effectively improve the forecasting accuracy. Second, the forecasting resulted from the DIRMO and RECMO strategies is more accurate than that of the other strategies. Finally, the RECMO strategy requires less model training time than the DIRMO strategy and consumes the least amount of training time among five forecasting strategies.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(7090104171171113)the Aeronautical Science Foundation of China(2014ZG52077)
文摘This paper aims to study a new grey prediction approach and its solution for forecasting the main system variable whose accurate value could not be collected while the potential value set could be defined. Based on the traditional nonhomogenous discrete grey forecasting model（NDGM）, the interval grey number and its algebra operations are redefined and combined with the NDGM model to construct a new interval grey number sequence prediction approach. The solving principle of the model is analyzed, the new accuracy evaluation indices, i.e. mean absolute percentage error of mean value sequence（MAPEM） and mean percent of interval sequence simulating value set covered（MPSVSC）, are defined and, the procedure of the interval grey number sequence based the NDGM（IG-NDGM） is given out. Finally, a numerical case is used to test the modelling accuracy of the proposed model. Results show that the proposed approach could solve the interval grey number sequence prediction problem and it is much better than the traditional DGM（1,1） model and GM（1,1） model.
基金China Postdoctoral Science Fund.The Youth Fund of Si Chuon University ( 4 3 2 0 2 8)
文摘The area of well rice in the sanjiang Plain is incresing recently.At the same time,the groundwater resource has been wasted.Thus,the resource of groundwater is shortening.More and more area appears the phenomenon of “hanger pump” and “funnel”.According to these problems the paper adopts Chuang Ye farm as the research base,through handle the data of groundwater,applying GM(1,1) to forecasting the dynamic variation of groundwater.The writer hopes to provide some references about using groundwater resource of the area in the future for readers.
基金Project(70572090) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘A new grey forecasting model based on BP neural network and Markov chain was proposed. In order to combine the grey forecasting model with neural network, an important theorem that the grey differential equation is equivalent to the time response model, was proved by analyzing the features of grey forecasting model（GM（1,1））. Based on this, the differential equation parameters were included in the network when the BP neural network was constructed, and the neural network was trained by extracting samples from grey system＇s known data. When BP network was converged, the whitened grey differential equation parameters were extracted and then the grey neural network forecasting model （GNNM（1,1）） was built. In order to reduce stochastic phenomenon in GNNM（1,1）, the state transition probability between two states was defined and the Markov transition matrix was established by building the residual sequences between grey forecasting and actual value. Thus, the new grey forecasting model（MNNGM（1,1）） was proposed by combining Markov chain with GNNM（1,1）. Based on the above discussion, three different approaches were put forward for forecasting China electricity demands. By comparing GM（1, 1） and GNNM（1,1） with the proposed model, the results indicate that the absolute mean error of MNNGM（1,1） is about 0.4 times of GNNM（1,1） and 0.2 times of GM（I, 1）, and the mean square error of MNNGM（1,1） is about 0.25 times of GNNM（1,1） and 0.1 times of GM（1,1）.
基金Project(2020TJ-Q06)supported by Hunan Provincial Science&Technology Talent Support,ChinaProject(KQ1707017)supported by the Changsha Science&Technology,ChinaProject(2019CX005)supported by the Innovation Driven Project of the Central South University,China。
文摘Due to global energy depletion,solar energy technology has been widely used in the world.The output power of the solar energy systems is affected by solar radiation.Accurate short-term forecasting of solar radiation can ensure the safety of photovoltaic grids and improve the utilization efficiency of the solar energy systems.In the study,a new decomposition-boosting model using artificial intelligence is proposed to realize the solar radiation multi-step prediction.The proposed model includes four parts:signal decomposition(EWT),neural network(NARX),Adaboost and ARIMA.Three real solar radiation datasets from Changde,China were used to validate the efficiency of the proposed model.To verify the robustness of the multi-step prediction model,this experiment compared nine models and made 1,3,and 5 steps ahead predictions for the time series.It is verified that the proposed model has the best performance among all models.
基金supported by the National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars under Grant No.71025005the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.91224001 and 71301006+1 种基金National Program for Support of Top-Notch Young Professionalsthe Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities in BUCT
文摘Due to the nonlinearity and nonstationary of hydropower market data, a novel hybrid learning paradigm is proposed to predict hydropower consumption, by incorporating firefly algorithm （FA） into least square support vector regression （LSSVR）, i.e., FA-based LSSVR model. In the novel model, the powerful and effective artificial intelligence （AI） technique, i.e., LSSVR, is employed to forecast hydropower consumption. Furthermore, a promising AI optimization tool, i.e., FA, is espe- cially introduced to address the crucial but difficult task of parameters determination in LSSVR （e.g., hyper and kernel function parameters）. With the Chinese hydropower consumption as sample data, the empirical study has statistically confirmed the superiority of the novel FA-based LSSVR model to other benchmark models （including existing popular traditional econometric models, AI models and similar hybrid LSSVRs with other popular parameter searching tools）~ in terms of level and direc- tional accuracy. The empirical results also imply that the hybrid FA-based LSSVR learning paradigm with powerful forecasting tool and parameters optimization method can be employed as an effective forecasting tool for not only hydropower consumption but also other complex data.
文摘In order to describe the characteristics of some systems, such as the process of economic and product forecasting, a lot of discrete data may be used. Although they are discrete, the inside law can be founded by some methods. For a series that the discrete degree is large and the integrated tendency is ascending, a new method for grey forecasting model group is given by the grey system theory. The method is that it firstly transforms original data, chooses some clique values and divides original data into groups by different clique values; then, it establishes non-equigap GM(1,1) model for different groups and searches forecasting area of original data by the solution of model. At the end of the paper, the result of reliability of forecasting value is obtained. It is shown that the method is feasible.
基金This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) under the grant !No. 69873030
文摘To generate a test set for a given circuit (including both combinational and sequential circuits), choice of an algorithm within a number of existing test generation algorithms to apply is bound to vary from circuit to circuit. In this paper, the genetic algorithms are used to construct the models of existing test generation algorithms in making such choice more easily. Therefore, we may forecast the testability parameters of a circuit before using the real test generation algorithm. The results also can be used to evaluate the efficiency of the existing test generation algorithms. Experimental results are given to convince the readers of the truth and the usefulness of this approach.
基金Projects(51478477,51508562,51508563)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘To assess the water inflow which is more suitable to the actual conditions of tunnel,an empirical correlation about the permeability coefficient changing with depth is introduced.Supposing that the surrounding rock is heterogeneous isotropy,the formula for calculating water inflow of tunnel with the nonlinear variation of permeability coefficient is deduced.By the contrast analysis with the existing formulas,the presented method has the similar value to them;moreover,the presented method has more simple form and easy to use.Due to parameter analysis,the water inflow decreases after considering the nonlinear variation of permeability coefficient.When the attenuation coefficient a>0,the water inflow increases first till reaches the maximum at a certain depth,then decreases and is close to 0 finally if deep enough.Thus,it is better to keep away from the certain depth where it is with the maximum water inflow for safe operation and economical construction,and reduce the water damage.Based on the analysis,the radius of tunnel has less impact on the amount of water inflow,and the water inflow just increases by 6.7% when the radius of tunnel increases by 1 m.
基金Project(70671039) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘A combined model based on principal components analysis (PCA) and generalized regression neural network (GRNN) was adopted to forecast electricity price in day-ahead electricity market. PCA was applied to mine the main influence on day-ahead price, avoiding the strong correlation between the input factors that might influence electricity price, such as the load of the forecasting hour, other history loads and prices, weather and temperature; then GRNN was employed to forecast electricity price according to the main information extracted by PCA. To prove the efficiency of the combined model, a case from PJM (Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland) day-ahead electricity market was evaluated. Compared to back-propagation (BP) neural network and standard GRNN, the combined method reduces the mean absolute percentage error about 3%.
基金Projects(60634020, 60904077, 60874069) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(JC200903180555A) supported by the Foundation Project of Shenzhen City Science and Technology Plan of China
文摘A time-series similarity measurement method based on wavelet and matrix transform was proposed,and its anti-noise ability,sensitivity and accuracy were discussed. The time-series sequences were compressed into wavelet subspace,and sample feature vector and orthogonal basics of sample time-series sequences were obtained by K-L transform. Then the inner product transform was carried out to project analyzed time-series sequence into orthogonal basics to gain analyzed feature vectors. The similarity was calculated between sample feature vector and analyzed feature vector by the Euclid distance. Taking fault wave of power electronic devices for example,the experimental results show that the proposed method has low dimension of feature vector,the anti-noise ability of proposed method is 30 times as large as that of plain wavelet method,the sensitivity of proposed method is 1/3 as large as that of plain wavelet method,and the accuracy of proposed method is higher than that of the wavelet singular value decomposition method. The proposed method can be applied in similarity matching and indexing for lager time series databases.
基金Project(70373017) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Considering the factors affecting the increasing rate of power consumption, the BP neural network structure and the neural network forecasting model of the increasing rate of power consumption were established. Immune genetic algorithm was applied to optimizing the weight from input layer to hidden layer, from hidden layer to output layer, and the threshold value of neuron nodes in hidden and output layers. Finally, training the related data of the increasing rate of power consumption from 1980 to 2000 in China, a nonlinear network model between the increasing rate of power consumption and influencing factors was obtained. The model was adopted to forecasting the increasing rate of power consumption from 2001 to 2005, and the average absolute error ratio of forecasting results is 13.521 8%. Compared with the ordinary neural network optimized by genetic algorithm, the results show that this method has better forecasting accuracy and stability for forecasting the increasing rate of power consumption.
文摘The author considered the influences of several weather factors, such as air temperature, sunlight, saturation deficiency, wind speed and so on to forecasting the water requirement of well irrigation rice based on Artificial Neutron Network. Through dealing with the time series of water requirement and its influence factors, the author applied the multi-dimension data correlation analysis to ensure the net structure. Thus, the ANN model to forecast the water requirement of well irrigation rice has been built. By means of the ANN model, uncertainty relation between water requirement and many influence factors among the interior and exterior can be discovered. The results of ANN model is good, and can provide some references for establishing the water saving irrigation system.
基金Project(2006BAC07B03) supported by the National Key Technology R & D Program of ChinaProject(2006G040-A) supported by the Foundation of the Science and Technology Section of Ministry of RailwayProject(2008yb044) supported by the Foundation of Excellent Doctoral Dissertation of Central South University
文摘To protect trains against strong cross-wind along Qinghai-Tibet railway, a strong wind speed monitoring and warning system was developed. And to obtain high-precision wind speed short-term forecasting values for the system to make more accurate scheduling decision, two optimization algorithms were proposed. Using them to make calculative examples for actual wind speed time series from the 18th meteorological station, the results show that: the optimization algorithm based on wavelet analysis method and improved time series analysis method can attain high-precision multi-step forecasting values, the mean relative errors of one-step, three-step, five-step and ten-step forecasting are only 0.30%, 0.75%, 1.15% and 1.65%, respectively. The optimization algorithm based on wavelet analysis method and Kalman time series analysis method can obtain high-precision one-step forecasting values, the mean relative error of one-step forecasting is reduced by 61.67% to 0.115%. The two optimization algorithms both maintain the modeling simple character, and can attain prediction explicit equations after modeling calculation.
基金Projects(70671039,71071052) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProjects(10QX44,09QX68) supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities in China
文摘Short-term forecasting is a difficult problem because of the influence of non-linear factors and irregular events.A novel short-term forecasting method named TIK was proposed,in which ARMA forecasting model was used to consider the load time series trend forecasting,intelligence forecasting DESVR model was applied to estimate the non-linear influence,and knowledge mining methods were applied to correct the errors caused by irregular events.In order to prove the effectiveness of the proposed model,an application of the daily maximum load forecasting was evaluated.The experimental results show that the DESVR model improves the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) from 2.82% to 2.55%,and the knowledge rules can improve the MAPE from 2.55% to 2.30%.Compared with the single ARMA forecasting method and ARMA combined SVR forecasting method,it can be proved that TIK method gains the best performance in short-term load forecasting.
