Environmental risk assessment of tailings reservoir assessment system is complex and has many index factors.In order to accurately judge surrounding environmental risks of tailings reservoirs and determinate the corre...Environmental risk assessment of tailings reservoir assessment system is complex and has many index factors.In order to accurately judge surrounding environmental risks of tailings reservoirs and determinate the corresponding prevention and control work,multi-hierarchical fuzzy judgment and nested dominance relation of rough set theory are implemented to evaluate them and find out the rules of this evaluation system with 14 representative cases.The methods of multi-hierarchical fuzzy evaluation can overall consider each influence factor of risk assessment system and their mutual impact,and the index weight based on the analytic hierarchy process is relatively reasonable.Rough set theory based on dominance relation reduces each index attribute from the top down,largely simplifies the complexity of the original evaluation system,and considers the preferential information in each index.Furthermore,grey correlation theory is applied to analysis of importance of each reducted condition attribute.The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed safety evaluation system and the application potential.展开更多
基金Project(51374242)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(200449)supported by National Outstanding Doctoral Dissertations Special Fund of ChinaProject(2012QNZT028)supported by the Free Exploration Fund of Central South University,China
文摘Environmental risk assessment of tailings reservoir assessment system is complex and has many index factors.In order to accurately judge surrounding environmental risks of tailings reservoirs and determinate the corresponding prevention and control work,multi-hierarchical fuzzy judgment and nested dominance relation of rough set theory are implemented to evaluate them and find out the rules of this evaluation system with 14 representative cases.The methods of multi-hierarchical fuzzy evaluation can overall consider each influence factor of risk assessment system and their mutual impact,and the index weight based on the analytic hierarchy process is relatively reasonable.Rough set theory based on dominance relation reduces each index attribute from the top down,largely simplifies the complexity of the original evaluation system,and considers the preferential information in each index.Furthermore,grey correlation theory is applied to analysis of importance of each reducted condition attribute.The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed safety evaluation system and the application potential.
文摘目的洪水是影响尾矿库安全的重要因素,明晰洪水对尾矿库的风险传导路径有利于帮助识别关键风险因素,优化防控措施。方法结合文献计量法和专家决策筛选出尾矿库洪水风险的重要影响指标,利用解释结构模型(interpretative structural modeling,ISM)对指标层次进行划分,最后基于事故树分析(fault tree analysis,FTA)解析灾害的演化路径,并提出相应预防措施。结果结果表明:(1)基于文献计量法总共筛选出24个尾矿库洪水风险影响因素,结合平均权重值与专家经验确定10个相对重要的尾矿库洪水风险影响因素;(2)基于ISM计算得出10个影响因素和洪水风险间的相互影响关系,确定尾矿库洪水灾害的直接、间接和最根本影响因素;(3)结合ISM和事故案例,建立尾矿库洪水灾害事故树,通过布尔代数运算得出18种致灾路径和9种预防事故的路径;(4)分析事故树的结构重要度后发现对尾矿库洪水风险影响最大的事件是排洪能力不足、洪峰流量大和初始浸润线埋深浅。结论提出的文献计量法、ISM与FTA相结合的方法不仅实现了客观指标筛选与系统建模的融合,而且为尾矿库防洪实现从“被动应对”向“主动阻断”的转变提供了理论支撑。
