Mendelian randomization(MR)is widely used in causal mediation analysis to control unmeasured confounding effects,which is valid under some strong assumptions.It is thus of great interest to assess the impact of violat...Mendelian randomization(MR)is widely used in causal mediation analysis to control unmeasured confounding effects,which is valid under some strong assumptions.It is thus of great interest to assess the impact of violations of these MR assumptions through sensitivity analysis.Sensitivity analyses have been conducted for simple MR-based causal average effect analyses,but they are not available for MR-based mediation analysis studies,and we aim to fill this gap in this paper.We propose to use two sensitivity parameters to quantify the effect due to the deviation of the IV assumptions.With these two sensitivity parameters,we derive consistent indirect causal effect estimators and establish their asymptotic propersties.Our theoretical results can be used in MR-based mediation analysis to study the impact of violations of MR as-sumptions.The finite sample performance of the proposed method is illustrated through simulation studies,sensitivity ana-lysis,and application to a real genome-wide association study.展开更多
The mechanical properties of cemented paste backfill(CPB) depend heavily on its pore structural characteristics and micro-structural changes. In order to explore the variation mechanisms of macro-mechanical characteri...The mechanical properties of cemented paste backfill(CPB) depend heavily on its pore structural characteristics and micro-structural changes. In order to explore the variation mechanisms of macro-mechanical characteristics and micro-structure of CPB. CPB specimens with different mass concentrations prepared from the full tailings of Xianglushan Tungsten Ore were micro-tests. Moreover, acquired pore digital images were processed by using the pores(particles) and cracks analysis system(PCAS), and a sensitivity analysis was performed. The results show that as the mass concentration of CPB increases from 70% to 78%, the porosity, the average pore area and the number of pores drop overall, leading to a decline in the pores opening degree and enhancing the mechanical characteristics. As the mass concentration of CPB increases, the trend of fractal dimension, probability entropy and roundness is reduced, constant and increased, which can result in an enhancement of the uniformity, an unchanged directionality and more round pores. According to the definition of sensitivity, the sensitivities of various micro-parameters were calculated and can be ranked as porosity > average pore area > number of pores > roundness > fractal dimension > probability entropy.展开更多
With the fast growth of Chinese economic, more and more capital will be invested in environmental projects. How to select the environmental investment projects （alternatives） for obtaining the best environmental qua...With the fast growth of Chinese economic, more and more capital will be invested in environmental projects. How to select the environmental investment projects （alternatives） for obtaining the best environmental quality and economic benefits is an important problem for the decision makers. The purpose of this paper is to develop a decision-making model to rank a finite number of alternatives with several and sometimes conflicting criteria. A model for ranking the projects of municipal sewage treatment plants is proposed by using exports＇ information and the data of the real projects. And, the ranking result is given based on the PROMETHEE method. Furthermore, by means of the concept of the weight stability intervals （WSI）, the sensitivity of the ranking results to the size of criteria values and the change of weights value of criteria are discussed. The result shows that some criteria, such as “proportion of benefit to project cost”, will influence the ranking result of alternatives very strong while others not. The influence are not only from the value of criterion but also from the changing the weight of criterion. So, some criteria such as “proportion of benefit to project cost” are key critera for ranking the projects. Decision makers must be cautious to them.展开更多
Wellbore stability analysis is a growing concern in oil industries. There are many parameters affecting the stability of a wellbore including geomechanical properties (e.g., elastic modulus, uni-axial compressive stre...Wellbore stability analysis is a growing concern in oil industries. There are many parameters affecting the stability of a wellbore including geomechanical properties (e.g., elastic modulus, uni-axial compressive strength (UCS) and cohesion) and acting forces (e.g., field stresses and mud pressure). Accurate determination of these parameters is time-consuming, expensive and sometimes even impossible. This work offers a systematic sensitivity analysis to quantify the amount of each parameter’s effect on the stability of a wellbore. Maximum wellbore wall displacement is used as a stability factor to study the stability of a wellbore. A 3D finite difference method with Mohr model is used for the numerical modeling. The numerical model is verified against an analytical solution. A dimensionless sensitivity factor is developed in order to compare the results of various parameters in the sensitivity analysis. The results show a different order of importance of parameters based on rock strength. The most sensitive properties for a weak rock are the maximum horizontal stress, internal friction angle and formation pressure, respectively, while for a strong rock, the most sensitive parameters are the maximum horizontal stress, mud pressure and pore pressure, respectively. The amount of error in wellbore stability analysis inflicted by the error in estimation of each parameter was also derived.展开更多
A novel conditional cell transmission model （CCTM） is a potential simulation tool because it accommodates all traffic conditions from light condition to oversaturated condition. To test the performance of the CCTM, ...A novel conditional cell transmission model （CCTM） is a potential simulation tool because it accommodates all traffic conditions from light condition to oversaturated condition. To test the performance of the CCTM, a series of experiments for sensitivity analysis were designed and performed for a multilane, two-way, three-signal sample network. Experiment 1 shows that the model is performed in a logical and expected manner with variations in traffic demand with time and direction. Experiment 2 shows when the possibility of the occurrence of a useful gap increases to 60% and 100%, the delays in left rams decrease by 5% and 15%, respectively. In Experiment 3, comparing the possibility of a conditional cell of 0 with 100%, delay of left turn and delay of the entire network were underestimated by 58% and 11%, respectively. Hence, sensitivity analysis demonstrates that by reflecting local drivers＇ behaviors properly, the CCTM provides an accurate representation of traffic flow in simulating oversaturated traffic conditions.展开更多
For the system with the fuzzy failure state, the effects of the input random variables and the fuzzy failure state on the fuzzy probability of failure for the structural system are studied, and the moment-independence...For the system with the fuzzy failure state, the effects of the input random variables and the fuzzy failure state on the fuzzy probability of failure for the structural system are studied, and the moment-independence global sensitivity analysis（GSA） model is proposed to quantitatively measure these effects. According to the fuzzy random theory, the fuzzy failure state is transformed into an equivalent new random variable for the system, and the complementary function of the membership function of the fuzzy failure state is defined as the cumulative distribution function（CDF） of the new random variable. After introducing the new random variable, the equivalent performance function of the original problem is built. The difference between the unconditional fuzzy probability of failure and conditional fuzzy probability of failure is defined as the moment-independent GSA index. In order to solve the proposed GSA index efficiently, the Kriging-based algorithm is developed to estimate the defined moment-independence GSA index. Two engineering examples are employed to verify the feasibility and rationality of the presented GSA model, and the advantages of the developed Kriging method are also illustrated.展开更多
Depending on the numerical test approach on a computer, the relationships among relevant parameters, eg branch number, node number, mesh number, computation accuracy, preliminary value of airflow rate, iteration numbe...Depending on the numerical test approach on a computer, the relationships among relevant parameters, eg branch number, node number, mesh number, computation accuracy, preliminary value of airflow rate, iteration number, computation time and convergence in a mine ventilation network analysis, were investigated based on 5 mine ventilation systems. The results show that a higher computation accuracy greatly influences the iteration number. When the accuracy reaches 10-6m3·s-1 for solving a complicated mine ventilation network, the running time is too long though a high-speed computer is used. The preliminary value of airflow rate in the range of 1100m3·s-1 has little effects the iteration number. The structure of network also has some effect on the iteration number.展开更多
Many products always operate under various complex environment conditions. To describe the dynamic influence of environment factors on their reliability, a method of reliability sensitivity analysis is proposed. In th...Many products always operate under various complex environment conditions. To describe the dynamic influence of environment factors on their reliability, a method of reliability sensitivity analysis is proposed. In this method, the location parameter is assumed as a function of relevant environment variables while the scale parameter is assumed as an unknown positive constant. Then, the location parameter function is constructed by using the method of radial basis function. Using the varied environment test data, the log-likelihood function is transformed to a generalized linear expression by describing the indicator as Poisson variable. With the generalized linear model, the maximum likelihood estimations of the model coefficients are obtained. With the reliability model, the reliability sensitivity is obtained. An instance analysis shows that the method is feasible to analyze the dynamic variety characters of reliability along with environment factors and is straightforward for engineering application.展开更多
The structural response of a single-layer reticulated dome to external explosions is shaped by many variables,and the associated uncertainties imply non-deterministic results.Existing deterministic methods for predict...The structural response of a single-layer reticulated dome to external explosions is shaped by many variables,and the associated uncertainties imply non-deterministic results.Existing deterministic methods for predicting the consequences of specific explosions do not account for these uncertainties.Therefore,the impact of the uncertainties associated with these input variables on the structures’response needs to be studied and quantified.In this study,a parametric uncertainty analysis was conducted first.Then,local and global sensitivity analyses were carried out to identify the drivers of the structural dynamic response.A probabilistic structural response model was established based on sensitive variables and a reasonable sample size.Furthermore,some deterministic empirical methods for explosion-resistance design,including the plane blast load model of CONWEP,the curved blast load model under the 50%assurance level,and the 20%mass-increased method,were used for evaluating their reliability.The results of the analyses revealed that the structural response of a single-layer reticulated dome to an external blast loading is lognormally distributed.Evidently,the MB0.5 method based on the curved reflector load model yielded results with a relatively stable assurance rate and reliability,but CONWEP did not;thus,the 1.2MB0.5 method can be used for making high-confidence simple predictions.In addition,the results indicated that the structural response is very sensitive to the explosion parameters.Based on these results,it is suggested that for explosion proofing,setting up a defensive barrier is more effective than structural strengthening.展开更多
Understanding the steady mechanism of biomass smoldering plays a great role in the utilization of smoldering technology.In this study numerical analysis of steady smoldering of biomass rods was performed.A two-dimensi...Understanding the steady mechanism of biomass smoldering plays a great role in the utilization of smoldering technology.In this study numerical analysis of steady smoldering of biomass rods was performed.A two-dimensional(2D)steady model taking into account both char oxidation and pyrolysis was developed on the basis of a calculated propagation velocity according to empirical correlation.The model was validated against the smoldering experiment of biomass rods under natural conditions,and the maximum error was smaller than 31%.Parameter sensitivity analysis found that propagation velocity decreases significantly while oxidation area and pyrolysis zone increase significantly with the increasing diameter of rod fuel.展开更多
The combustion and explosion characteristics of lithium-ion battery vent gas is a key factor in determining the fire hazard of lithium-ion batteries.Investigating the combustion and explosion hazards of lithium-ion ba...The combustion and explosion characteristics of lithium-ion battery vent gas is a key factor in determining the fire hazard of lithium-ion batteries.Investigating the combustion and explosion hazards of lithium-ion batteries vent gas can provide guidance for rescue and protection in explosion accidents in energy storage stations and new energy vehicles,thereby promoting the application and development of lithium-ion batteries.Based on this understanding and combined with previous research on gas production from lithium-ion batteries,this article conducted a study on the combustion and explosion risks of vent gas from thermal runaway of 18650 LFP batteries with different states of charge(SOCs).The explosion limit of mixed gases affected by carbon dioxide inert gas is calculated through the“elimination”method,and the Chemkin-Pro software is used to numerically simulate the laminar flame speed and adiabatic flame temperature of the battery vent gas.And the concentration of free radicals and sensitivity coefficients of major elementary reactions in the system are analyzed to comprehensively evaluate the combustion explosion hazard of battery vent gas.The study found that the 100%SOC battery has the lowest explosion limit of the vent gas.The inhibitory elementary reaction sensitivity coefficient in the reaction system is lower and the concentration of free radicals is higher.Therefore,it has the maximum laminar flame speed and adiabatic flame temperature.The combustion and explosion hazard of battery vent gas increases with the increase of SOC,and the risk of explosion is the greatest and most harmful when SOC reaches 100%.However,the related hazards decrease to varying degrees with overcharging of the battery.This article provides a feasible method for analyzing the combustion mechanism of vent gas from lithium-ion batteries,revealing the impact of SOC on the hazardousness of battery vent gas.It provides references for the safety of storage and transportation of lithium-ion batteries,safety protection of energy storage stations,and the selection of related fire extinguishing agents.展开更多
The uncertainty analysis is an effective sensitivity analysis method for system model analysis and optimization. However,the existing single-factor uncertainty analysis methods are not well used in the logistic suppor...The uncertainty analysis is an effective sensitivity analysis method for system model analysis and optimization. However,the existing single-factor uncertainty analysis methods are not well used in the logistic support systems with multiple decision-making factors. The multiple transfer parameters graphical evaluation and review technique（MTP-GERT） is used to model the logistic support process in consideration of two important factors, support activity time and support activity resources, which are two primary causes for the logistic support process uncertainty. On this basis,a global sensitivity analysis（GSA） method based on covariance is designed to analyze the logistic support process uncertainty. The aircraft support process is selected as a case application which illustrates the validity of the proposed method to analyze the support process uncertainty, and some feasible recommendations are proposed for aircraft support decision making on carrier.展开更多
Based on the nonlinear Barton–Bandis(B–B)failure criterion,this study considers the system reliability of rock wedge stability under the pseudo-static seismic load.The failure probability(Pf)of the system is calcula...Based on the nonlinear Barton–Bandis(B–B)failure criterion,this study considers the system reliability of rock wedge stability under the pseudo-static seismic load.The failure probability(Pf)of the system is calculated based on the Monte−Carlo method when considering parameter correlation and variability.Parameter analysis and sensitivity analysis are carried out to explore the influence of parameters on reliability.The relationships among the failure probability,safety factor(Fs),and variation coefficient are explored,and then stability probability curves of the rock wedge under the pseudo-static seismic load are drawn.The results show that the parameter correlation of the B–B failure criterion has a significant influence on the failure probability,but correlation increases system reliability or decreases system reliability affected by other parameters.Under the pseudo-static seismic action,sliding on both planes is the main failure mode of wedge system.In addition,the parameters with relatively high sensitivity are two angles related to the joint dip.When the coefficient of variation is consistent,the probability of system failure is a function of the safety factor.展开更多
In order to describe and control the stress distribution and total deformation of bladed disk assemblies used in the aeroengine, a highly efficient and precise method of probabilistic analysis which is called extremum...In order to describe and control the stress distribution and total deformation of bladed disk assemblies used in the aeroengine, a highly efficient and precise method of probabilistic analysis which is called extremum response surface method(ERSM) is produced based on the previous deterministic analysis results with the finite element model(FEM). In this work, many key nonlinear factors, such as the dynamic feature of the temperature load, the centrifugal force and the boundary conditions, are taken into consideration for the model. The changing patterns with time of bladed disk assemblies about stress distribution and total deformation are obtained during the deterministic analysis, and at the same time, the largest deformation and stress nodes of bladed disk assemblies are found and taken as input target of probabilistic analysis in a scientific and reasonable way. Not only their reliability, historical sample, extreme response surface(ERS) and the cumulative probability distribution function but also their sensitivity and effect probability are obtained. Main factors affecting stress distribution and total deformation of bladed disk assemblies are investigated through the sensitivity analysis of the model. Finally, compared with the response surface method(RSM) and the Monte Carlo simulation(MCS), the results show that this new approach is effective.展开更多
The free-piston engine generator(FPEG)is regarded as the next generation of energy conversion system which may replace traditional engines in the future.The effect of key operational parameters like excess air ratio o...The free-piston engine generator(FPEG)is regarded as the next generation of energy conversion system which may replace traditional engines in the future.The effect of key operational parameters like excess air ratio of input mixture and ignition position on the engine performance of a dual-cylinder FPEG was investigated,and their sensitivity was analyzed in this paper.The operating compression ratio of the system is susceptible to changes in excess air ratio and ignition position.At the same time,it decreases from 15.8 to 6.6 when excess air ratio increases from 0.85 to 1.15,but it increases from 6.1 to 13.3 as ignition position increases from 15 mm to 20 mm.The operating frequency and indicated power are more sensitive to changes in excess air ratio than ignition position.But it is the opposite for the indicated thermal efficiency and friction loss.Excess air ratio and ignition position have a quite similar influence on heat transfer.Therefore,from the perspective of system operation and performance,it is preferable to keep excess air coefficient slightly below 1.0.In contrast,when selecting ignition position,it is of great importance to comprehensively consider the risk of structural damage caused by the increase in the compression ratio and in-cylinder gas pressure.展开更多
To reasonably design the blade-tip radial running clearance(BTRRC) of high pressure turbine and improve the performance and reliability of gas turbine, the multi-object multi-discipline reliability sensitivity analysi...To reasonably design the blade-tip radial running clearance(BTRRC) of high pressure turbine and improve the performance and reliability of gas turbine, the multi-object multi-discipline reliability sensitivity analysis of BTRRC was accomplished from a probabilistic prospective by considering nonlinear material attributes and dynamic loads. Firstly, multiply response surface model(MRSM) was proposed and the mathematical model of this method was established based on quadratic function. Secondly, the BTRRC was decomposed into three sub-components(turbine disk, blade and casing), and then the single response surface functions(SRSFs) of three structures were built in line with the basic idea of MRSM. Thirdly, the response surface function(MRSM) of BTRRC was reshaped by coordinating SRSFs. From the analysis, it is acquired to probabilistic distribution characteristics of input-output variables, failure probabilities of blade-tip clearance under different static blade-tip clearances δ and major factors impacting BTRRC. Considering the reliability and efficiency of gas turbine, δ=1.87 mm is an optimally acceptable option for rational BTRRC. Through the comparison of three analysis methods(Monte Carlo method, traditional response surface method and MRSM), the results show that MRSM has higher accuracy and higher efficiency in reliability sensitivity analysis of BTRRC. These strengths are likely to become more prominent with the increasing times of simulations. The present study offers an effective and promising approach for reliability sensitivity analysis and optimal design of complex dynamic assembly relationship.展开更多
To know the temperature status of track and wheels on tank,the finite element calculation of temperature field was implemented with ANSYS software.The detailed temperature distributions for road wheel,drive wheel,idle...To know the temperature status of track and wheels on tank,the finite element calculation of temperature field was implemented with ANSYS software.The detailed temperature distributions for road wheel,drive wheel,idle wheel and track loop were obtained.The effect of factors,such as tank speed,environment temperature,sun radiant energy,ground deformation resistant and tank load,on the temperature of road wheel was studied.The sensitivity analysis shows that the effect of tank load on the temperature is the most,and the effect of ground deformation resistant is the least.The temperature testing device for road wheel on tank was developed to perform the experiments in real time.The calculated temperatures are in accord well with the experimental values.展开更多
The parameter sensitivities affecting the flutter speed of the NREL （National Renewable Energy Laboratory） 5-MW baseline HAWT （horizontal axis wind turbine） blades are analyzed. An aeroelastic model, which compris...The parameter sensitivities affecting the flutter speed of the NREL （National Renewable Energy Laboratory） 5-MW baseline HAWT （horizontal axis wind turbine） blades are analyzed. An aeroelastic model, which comprises an aerodynamic part to calculate the aerodynamic loads and a structural part to determine the structural dynamic responses, is established to describe the classical flutter of the blades. For the aerodynamic part, Theodorsen unsteady aerodynamics model is used. For the structural part, Lagrange’s equation is employed. The flutter speed is determined by introducing “V–g” method to the aeroelastic model, which converts the issue of classical flutter speed determination into an eigenvalue problem. Furthermore, the time domain aeroelastic response of the wind turbine blade section is obtained with employing Runge-Kutta method. The results show that four cases （i.e., reducing the blade torsional stiffness, moving the center of gravity or the elastic axis towards the trailing edge of the section, and placing the turbine in high air density area） will decrease the flutter speed. Therefore, the judicious selection of the four parameters （the torsional stiffness, the chordwise position of the center of gravity, the elastic axis position and air density） can increase the relative inflow speed at the blade section associated with the onset of flutter.展开更多
In this paper,based on the topological description method,the kinematic and dynamic equations of the projectile flight and projectile-artillery coupling system during the whole process of firing are constructed.The fa...In this paper,based on the topological description method,the kinematic and dynamic equations of the projectile flight and projectile-artillery coupling system during the whole process of firing are constructed.The factors that can affect the projectile burst points,namely the state parameters of the projectile on the muzzle and state parameters of the barrel muzzle,as well as the factors that affect the barrel muzzle state parameters,are analyzed.On this basis,the design principle of artillery firing accuracy is proposed.The error analysis and the corresponding inverse problem,the extraction method of key parameters affecting artillery implicated motion,the conformal and control method of rotating band are analyzed and presented.Finally,the presented method is verified through a vehicle mounted howitzer case,and the muzzle state parameter interval is obtained meeting the given firing accuracy.In addition,the sensitivity analysis of artillery parameters shows that the less the correlation between the parameters and the barrel,the less the influence on the projectile implicated motion.The analysis of the coupling effect between rifling and the rotating band shows that the uniform rifling is the optimal form for the conformal of the rotating band during firing.展开更多
To maintain their capacity,transportation infrastructures are in need of regular maintenance and rehabilitation.The major challenge facing transportation engineers is the network-level policies to maintain the deterio...To maintain their capacity,transportation infrastructures are in need of regular maintenance and rehabilitation.The major challenge facing transportation engineers is the network-level policies to maintain the deteriorating roads at an acceptable level of serviceability.In this work,a quantitative transportation network efficiency measure is presented and then how to determine optimally network-level road maintenance policy depending on the road importance to the network performance has been demonstrated.The examples show that the different roads should be set different maintenance time points in terms of the retention capacities of the roads,because the different roads play different roles in network and have different important degrees to the network performance.This network-level road maintenance optimization method could not only save lots of infrastructure investments,but also ensure the service level of the existing transportation system.展开更多
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(12171451,72091212).
文摘Mendelian randomization(MR)is widely used in causal mediation analysis to control unmeasured confounding effects,which is valid under some strong assumptions.It is thus of great interest to assess the impact of violations of these MR assumptions through sensitivity analysis.Sensitivity analyses have been conducted for simple MR-based causal average effect analyses,but they are not available for MR-based mediation analysis studies,and we aim to fill this gap in this paper.We propose to use two sensitivity parameters to quantify the effect due to the deviation of the IV assumptions.With these two sensitivity parameters,we derive consistent indirect causal effect estimators and establish their asymptotic propersties.Our theoretical results can be used in MR-based mediation analysis to study the impact of violations of MR as-sumptions.The finite sample performance of the proposed method is illustrated through simulation studies,sensitivity ana-lysis,and application to a real genome-wide association study.
基金Projects(51674188,51874229,51504182)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2018KJXX-083)supported by Shaanxi Innovative Talents Cultivate Program-New-star Plan of Science and Technology,China
文摘The mechanical properties of cemented paste backfill(CPB) depend heavily on its pore structural characteristics and micro-structural changes. In order to explore the variation mechanisms of macro-mechanical characteristics and micro-structure of CPB. CPB specimens with different mass concentrations prepared from the full tailings of Xianglushan Tungsten Ore were micro-tests. Moreover, acquired pore digital images were processed by using the pores(particles) and cracks analysis system(PCAS), and a sensitivity analysis was performed. The results show that as the mass concentration of CPB increases from 70% to 78%, the porosity, the average pore area and the number of pores drop overall, leading to a decline in the pores opening degree and enhancing the mechanical characteristics. As the mass concentration of CPB increases, the trend of fractal dimension, probability entropy and roundness is reduced, constant and increased, which can result in an enhancement of the uniformity, an unchanged directionality and more round pores. According to the definition of sensitivity, the sensitivities of various micro-parameters were calculated and can be ranked as porosity > average pore area > number of pores > roundness > fractal dimension > probability entropy.
基金Shanghai Leading Academic Discipline Project (T0502)Shanghai Municipal Educational Commission Project (05EZ32).
文摘With the fast growth of Chinese economic, more and more capital will be invested in environmental projects. How to select the environmental investment projects （alternatives） for obtaining the best environmental quality and economic benefits is an important problem for the decision makers. The purpose of this paper is to develop a decision-making model to rank a finite number of alternatives with several and sometimes conflicting criteria. A model for ranking the projects of municipal sewage treatment plants is proposed by using exports＇ information and the data of the real projects. And, the ranking result is given based on the PROMETHEE method. Furthermore, by means of the concept of the weight stability intervals （WSI）, the sensitivity of the ranking results to the size of criteria values and the change of weights value of criteria are discussed. The result shows that some criteria, such as “proportion of benefit to project cost”, will influence the ranking result of alternatives very strong while others not. The influence are not only from the value of criterion but also from the changing the weight of criterion. So, some criteria such as “proportion of benefit to project cost” are key critera for ranking the projects. Decision makers must be cautious to them.
文摘Wellbore stability analysis is a growing concern in oil industries. There are many parameters affecting the stability of a wellbore including geomechanical properties (e.g., elastic modulus, uni-axial compressive strength (UCS) and cohesion) and acting forces (e.g., field stresses and mud pressure). Accurate determination of these parameters is time-consuming, expensive and sometimes even impossible. This work offers a systematic sensitivity analysis to quantify the amount of each parameter’s effect on the stability of a wellbore. Maximum wellbore wall displacement is used as a stability factor to study the stability of a wellbore. A 3D finite difference method with Mohr model is used for the numerical modeling. The numerical model is verified against an analytical solution. A dimensionless sensitivity factor is developed in order to compare the results of various parameters in the sensitivity analysis. The results show a different order of importance of parameters based on rock strength. The most sensitive properties for a weak rock are the maximum horizontal stress, internal friction angle and formation pressure, respectively, while for a strong rock, the most sensitive parameters are the maximum horizontal stress, mud pressure and pore pressure, respectively. The amount of error in wellbore stability analysis inflicted by the error in estimation of each parameter was also derived.
基金Project(51108343)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(06121)supported by University of Transportation Center for Alabama,USA
文摘A novel conditional cell transmission model （CCTM） is a potential simulation tool because it accommodates all traffic conditions from light condition to oversaturated condition. To test the performance of the CCTM, a series of experiments for sensitivity analysis were designed and performed for a multilane, two-way, three-signal sample network. Experiment 1 shows that the model is performed in a logical and expected manner with variations in traffic demand with time and direction. Experiment 2 shows when the possibility of the occurrence of a useful gap increases to 60% and 100%, the delays in left rams decrease by 5% and 15%, respectively. In Experiment 3, comparing the possibility of a conditional cell of 0 with 100%, delay of left turn and delay of the entire network were underestimated by 58% and 11%, respectively. Hence, sensitivity analysis demonstrates that by reflecting local drivers＇ behaviors properly, the CCTM provides an accurate representation of traffic flow in simulating oversaturated traffic conditions.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(11702281)the Science Challenge Project(TZ2018007)the Technology Foundation Project of State Administration of Science,Technology and Industry for National Defence,PRC(JSZL2017212A001)
文摘For the system with the fuzzy failure state, the effects of the input random variables and the fuzzy failure state on the fuzzy probability of failure for the structural system are studied, and the moment-independence global sensitivity analysis（GSA） model is proposed to quantitatively measure these effects. According to the fuzzy random theory, the fuzzy failure state is transformed into an equivalent new random variable for the system, and the complementary function of the membership function of the fuzzy failure state is defined as the cumulative distribution function（CDF） of the new random variable. After introducing the new random variable, the equivalent performance function of the original problem is built. The difference between the unconditional fuzzy probability of failure and conditional fuzzy probability of failure is defined as the moment-independent GSA index. In order to solve the proposed GSA index efficiently, the Kriging-based algorithm is developed to estimate the defined moment-independence GSA index. Two engineering examples are employed to verify the feasibility and rationality of the presented GSA model, and the advantages of the developed Kriging method are also illustrated.
基金Project (50474050) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Depending on the numerical test approach on a computer, the relationships among relevant parameters, eg branch number, node number, mesh number, computation accuracy, preliminary value of airflow rate, iteration number, computation time and convergence in a mine ventilation network analysis, were investigated based on 5 mine ventilation systems. The results show that a higher computation accuracy greatly influences the iteration number. When the accuracy reaches 10-6m3·s-1 for solving a complicated mine ventilation network, the running time is too long though a high-speed computer is used. The preliminary value of airflow rate in the range of 1100m3·s-1 has little effects the iteration number. The structure of network also has some effect on the iteration number.
文摘Many products always operate under various complex environment conditions. To describe the dynamic influence of environment factors on their reliability, a method of reliability sensitivity analysis is proposed. In this method, the location parameter is assumed as a function of relevant environment variables while the scale parameter is assumed as an unknown positive constant. Then, the location parameter function is constructed by using the method of radial basis function. Using the varied environment test data, the log-likelihood function is transformed to a generalized linear expression by describing the indicator as Poisson variable. With the generalized linear model, the maximum likelihood estimations of the model coefficients are obtained. With the reliability model, the reliability sensitivity is obtained. An instance analysis shows that the method is feasible to analyze the dynamic variety characters of reliability along with environment factors and is straightforward for engineering application.
基金the financial support from the China Postdoctora Science Foundation (project No. 2021M690406)the financial supports from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (project Nos. 51708521, 51778183)
文摘The structural response of a single-layer reticulated dome to external explosions is shaped by many variables,and the associated uncertainties imply non-deterministic results.Existing deterministic methods for predicting the consequences of specific explosions do not account for these uncertainties.Therefore,the impact of the uncertainties associated with these input variables on the structures’response needs to be studied and quantified.In this study,a parametric uncertainty analysis was conducted first.Then,local and global sensitivity analyses were carried out to identify the drivers of the structural dynamic response.A probabilistic structural response model was established based on sensitive variables and a reasonable sample size.Furthermore,some deterministic empirical methods for explosion-resistance design,including the plane blast load model of CONWEP,the curved blast load model under the 50%assurance level,and the 20%mass-increased method,were used for evaluating their reliability.The results of the analyses revealed that the structural response of a single-layer reticulated dome to an external blast loading is lognormally distributed.Evidently,the MB0.5 method based on the curved reflector load model yielded results with a relatively stable assurance rate and reliability,but CONWEP did not;thus,the 1.2MB0.5 method can be used for making high-confidence simple predictions.In addition,the results indicated that the structural response is very sensitive to the explosion parameters.Based on these results,it is suggested that for explosion proofing,setting up a defensive barrier is more effective than structural strengthening.
文摘Understanding the steady mechanism of biomass smoldering plays a great role in the utilization of smoldering technology.In this study numerical analysis of steady smoldering of biomass rods was performed.A two-dimensional(2D)steady model taking into account both char oxidation and pyrolysis was developed on the basis of a calculated propagation velocity according to empirical correlation.The model was validated against the smoldering experiment of biomass rods under natural conditions,and the maximum error was smaller than 31%.Parameter sensitivity analysis found that propagation velocity decreases significantly while oxidation area and pyrolysis zone increase significantly with the increasing diameter of rod fuel.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(52106284)the Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province(B2021507001)support of Project to Promote Innovation in Doctoral Research at CPPU(BSKY202302).
文摘The combustion and explosion characteristics of lithium-ion battery vent gas is a key factor in determining the fire hazard of lithium-ion batteries.Investigating the combustion and explosion hazards of lithium-ion batteries vent gas can provide guidance for rescue and protection in explosion accidents in energy storage stations and new energy vehicles,thereby promoting the application and development of lithium-ion batteries.Based on this understanding and combined with previous research on gas production from lithium-ion batteries,this article conducted a study on the combustion and explosion risks of vent gas from thermal runaway of 18650 LFP batteries with different states of charge(SOCs).The explosion limit of mixed gases affected by carbon dioxide inert gas is calculated through the“elimination”method,and the Chemkin-Pro software is used to numerically simulate the laminar flame speed and adiabatic flame temperature of the battery vent gas.And the concentration of free radicals and sensitivity coefficients of major elementary reactions in the system are analyzed to comprehensively evaluate the combustion explosion hazard of battery vent gas.The study found that the 100%SOC battery has the lowest explosion limit of the vent gas.The inhibitory elementary reaction sensitivity coefficient in the reaction system is lower and the concentration of free radicals is higher.Therefore,it has the maximum laminar flame speed and adiabatic flame temperature.The combustion and explosion hazard of battery vent gas increases with the increase of SOC,and the risk of explosion is the greatest and most harmful when SOC reaches 100%.However,the related hazards decrease to varying degrees with overcharging of the battery.This article provides a feasible method for analyzing the combustion mechanism of vent gas from lithium-ion batteries,revealing the impact of SOC on the hazardousness of battery vent gas.It provides references for the safety of storage and transportation of lithium-ion batteries,safety protection of energy storage stations,and the selection of related fire extinguishing agents.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71171008)
文摘The uncertainty analysis is an effective sensitivity analysis method for system model analysis and optimization. However,the existing single-factor uncertainty analysis methods are not well used in the logistic support systems with multiple decision-making factors. The multiple transfer parameters graphical evaluation and review technique（MTP-GERT） is used to model the logistic support process in consideration of two important factors, support activity time and support activity resources, which are two primary causes for the logistic support process uncertainty. On this basis,a global sensitivity analysis（GSA） method based on covariance is designed to analyze the logistic support process uncertainty. The aircraft support process is selected as a case application which illustrates the validity of the proposed method to analyze the support process uncertainty, and some feasible recommendations are proposed for aircraft support decision making on carrier.
基金Project(51878668)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProjects(2017-122-058,2018-123-040)supported by the Guizhou Provincial Department of Transportation Foundation,ChinaProject([2018]2815)supported by the Guizhou Provincial Department of Science and Technology Foundation,China。
文摘Based on the nonlinear Barton–Bandis(B–B)failure criterion,this study considers the system reliability of rock wedge stability under the pseudo-static seismic load.The failure probability(Pf)of the system is calculated based on the Monte−Carlo method when considering parameter correlation and variability.Parameter analysis and sensitivity analysis are carried out to explore the influence of parameters on reliability.The relationships among the failure probability,safety factor(Fs),and variation coefficient are explored,and then stability probability curves of the rock wedge under the pseudo-static seismic load are drawn.The results show that the parameter correlation of the B–B failure criterion has a significant influence on the failure probability,but correlation increases system reliability or decreases system reliability affected by other parameters.Under the pseudo-static seismic action,sliding on both planes is the main failure mode of wedge system.In addition,the parameters with relatively high sensitivity are two angles related to the joint dip.When the coefficient of variation is consistent,the probability of system failure is a function of the safety factor.
基金Projects(51375032,51175017,51245027)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘In order to describe and control the stress distribution and total deformation of bladed disk assemblies used in the aeroengine, a highly efficient and precise method of probabilistic analysis which is called extremum response surface method(ERSM) is produced based on the previous deterministic analysis results with the finite element model(FEM). In this work, many key nonlinear factors, such as the dynamic feature of the temperature load, the centrifugal force and the boundary conditions, are taken into consideration for the model. The changing patterns with time of bladed disk assemblies about stress distribution and total deformation are obtained during the deterministic analysis, and at the same time, the largest deformation and stress nodes of bladed disk assemblies are found and taken as input target of probabilistic analysis in a scientific and reasonable way. Not only their reliability, historical sample, extreme response surface(ERS) and the cumulative probability distribution function but also their sensitivity and effect probability are obtained. Main factors affecting stress distribution and total deformation of bladed disk assemblies are investigated through the sensitivity analysis of the model. Finally, compared with the response surface method(RSM) and the Monte Carlo simulation(MCS), the results show that this new approach is effective.
基金Projects(51675043,52005038)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China。
文摘The free-piston engine generator(FPEG)is regarded as the next generation of energy conversion system which may replace traditional engines in the future.The effect of key operational parameters like excess air ratio of input mixture and ignition position on the engine performance of a dual-cylinder FPEG was investigated,and their sensitivity was analyzed in this paper.The operating compression ratio of the system is susceptible to changes in excess air ratio and ignition position.At the same time,it decreases from 15.8 to 6.6 when excess air ratio increases from 0.85 to 1.15,but it increases from 6.1 to 13.3 as ignition position increases from 15 mm to 20 mm.The operating frequency and indicated power are more sensitive to changes in excess air ratio than ignition position.But it is the opposite for the indicated thermal efficiency and friction loss.Excess air ratio and ignition position have a quite similar influence on heat transfer.Therefore,from the perspective of system operation and performance,it is preferable to keep excess air coefficient slightly below 1.0.In contrast,when selecting ignition position,it is of great importance to comprehensively consider the risk of structural damage caused by the increase in the compression ratio and in-cylinder gas pressure.
基金Projects(51175017,51245027)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘To reasonably design the blade-tip radial running clearance(BTRRC) of high pressure turbine and improve the performance and reliability of gas turbine, the multi-object multi-discipline reliability sensitivity analysis of BTRRC was accomplished from a probabilistic prospective by considering nonlinear material attributes and dynamic loads. Firstly, multiply response surface model(MRSM) was proposed and the mathematical model of this method was established based on quadratic function. Secondly, the BTRRC was decomposed into three sub-components(turbine disk, blade and casing), and then the single response surface functions(SRSFs) of three structures were built in line with the basic idea of MRSM. Thirdly, the response surface function(MRSM) of BTRRC was reshaped by coordinating SRSFs. From the analysis, it is acquired to probabilistic distribution characteristics of input-output variables, failure probabilities of blade-tip clearance under different static blade-tip clearances δ and major factors impacting BTRRC. Considering the reliability and efficiency of gas turbine, δ=1.87 mm is an optimally acceptable option for rational BTRRC. Through the comparison of three analysis methods(Monte Carlo method, traditional response surface method and MRSM), the results show that MRSM has higher accuracy and higher efficiency in reliability sensitivity analysis of BTRRC. These strengths are likely to become more prominent with the increasing times of simulations. The present study offers an effective and promising approach for reliability sensitivity analysis and optimal design of complex dynamic assembly relationship.
文摘To know the temperature status of track and wheels on tank,the finite element calculation of temperature field was implemented with ANSYS software.The detailed temperature distributions for road wheel,drive wheel,idle wheel and track loop were obtained.The effect of factors,such as tank speed,environment temperature,sun radiant energy,ground deformation resistant and tank load,on the temperature of road wheel was studied.The sensitivity analysis shows that the effect of tank load on the temperature is the most,and the effect of ground deformation resistant is the least.The temperature testing device for road wheel on tank was developed to perform the experiments in real time.The calculated temperatures are in accord well with the experimental values.
基金Project(2015B37714)supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of ChinaProject(51605005)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China+1 种基金Project(ZK16-03-03)supported by the Open Foundation of Jiangsu Wind Technology Center,ChinaProject([2013]56)supported by the First Group of 2011 Plan of Jiangsu Province,China
文摘The parameter sensitivities affecting the flutter speed of the NREL （National Renewable Energy Laboratory） 5-MW baseline HAWT （horizontal axis wind turbine） blades are analyzed. An aeroelastic model, which comprises an aerodynamic part to calculate the aerodynamic loads and a structural part to determine the structural dynamic responses, is established to describe the classical flutter of the blades. For the aerodynamic part, Theodorsen unsteady aerodynamics model is used. For the structural part, Lagrange’s equation is employed. The flutter speed is determined by introducing “V–g” method to the aeroelastic model, which converts the issue of classical flutter speed determination into an eigenvalue problem. Furthermore, the time domain aeroelastic response of the wind turbine blade section is obtained with employing Runge-Kutta method. The results show that four cases （i.e., reducing the blade torsional stiffness, moving the center of gravity or the elastic axis towards the trailing edge of the section, and placing the turbine in high air density area） will decrease the flutter speed. Therefore, the judicious selection of the four parameters （the torsional stiffness, the chordwise position of the center of gravity, the elastic axis position and air density） can increase the relative inflow speed at the blade section associated with the onset of flutter.
基金This work was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.11472137)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central University(Grant No.309181A880 and 30919011204).
文摘In this paper,based on the topological description method,the kinematic and dynamic equations of the projectile flight and projectile-artillery coupling system during the whole process of firing are constructed.The factors that can affect the projectile burst points,namely the state parameters of the projectile on the muzzle and state parameters of the barrel muzzle,as well as the factors that affect the barrel muzzle state parameters,are analyzed.On this basis,the design principle of artillery firing accuracy is proposed.The error analysis and the corresponding inverse problem,the extraction method of key parameters affecting artillery implicated motion,the conformal and control method of rotating band are analyzed and presented.Finally,the presented method is verified through a vehicle mounted howitzer case,and the muzzle state parameter interval is obtained meeting the given firing accuracy.In addition,the sensitivity analysis of artillery parameters shows that the less the correlation between the parameters and the barrel,the less the influence on the projectile implicated motion.The analysis of the coupling effect between rifling and the rotating band shows that the uniform rifling is the optimal form for the conformal of the rotating band during firing.
基金Project(71101155)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2015JJ2184)supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province,China
文摘To maintain their capacity,transportation infrastructures are in need of regular maintenance and rehabilitation.The major challenge facing transportation engineers is the network-level policies to maintain the deteriorating roads at an acceptable level of serviceability.In this work,a quantitative transportation network efficiency measure is presented and then how to determine optimally network-level road maintenance policy depending on the road importance to the network performance has been demonstrated.The examples show that the different roads should be set different maintenance time points in terms of the retention capacities of the roads,because the different roads play different roles in network and have different important degrees to the network performance.This network-level road maintenance optimization method could not only save lots of infrastructure investments,but also ensure the service level of the existing transportation system.
