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Operation Performance of Central Solar Heating System with Seasonal Storage Water Tank in Harbin 被引量:2
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作者 YE Ling1,JIANG Yi-qiang1,YAO Yang1,ZHANG Shi-cong2(1.Institute of Heat Pump and Air Conditioning Technology,Harbin Institute of Technology,Harbin,Heilongjiang 150090,China 2.Institute of Built Environment and Energy Efficiency,China Academy of Building Research,Beijing 100013,China) 《湖南大学学报(自然科学版)》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2009年第S1期111-114,共4页
This paper presented a preliminary research on the central solar heating system with seasonal storage(CSHSSS)used in cold climate in China.A mathematical model of the solar energy seasonal storage water tank used in t... This paper presented a preliminary research on the central solar heating system with seasonal storage(CSHSSS)used in cold climate in China.A mathematical model of the solar energy seasonal storage water tank used in the central solar heating system was firstly developed based on energy conservation.This was followed by the simulation of the CSHSSS used in a two-floor villa in Harbin,and analysis of the impacts on storage water temperature of tank volume,solar collector area,tank burial depth,insulation thickness around the tank,etc.The results show there is a relatively economical tank volume to optimize the system efficiency,which decreases with increasing tank volume at the constant collector area,and increases with increasing collector area at the constant tank volume.Furthermore,the insulation thickness has obvious effect on avoiding heat loss,while the tank burial depth doesn't.In addition,the relationship between the solar collector efficiency and storage water temperature is also obtained,it decreases quickly with increasing storing water temperature,and then increases slowly after starting space heating system.These may be helpful for relevant design and optimization in cold climates in China and all over the world. 展开更多
关键词 CENTRAL solar heating SYSTEM with seasonal storage(CSHSSS) simulation SYSTEM efficiency STORAGE water tank VILLA
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Combination effect of seasonal freezing and artificial freezing on frost heave of silty clay 被引量:7
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作者 于琳琳 徐学燕 马琛 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2010年第1期163-168,共6页
To investigate the frost-heave properties of silty clay under the combination action of seasonal freezing and artificial freezing, and verify the feasibility of combined freezing, eight combined freezing experiments w... To investigate the frost-heave properties of silty clay under the combination action of seasonal freezing and artificial freezing, and verify the feasibility of combined freezing, eight combined freezing experiments were performed on silty clay with water content (mass fraction) of 23.5% and 28.0%, through developed frost-heave test apparatus, in closed or open system. Two sorts of freezing temperature models, namely, constant and sine models, were applied to artificial freezing. The experimental results indicate that the frost-heave degree in seasonal freezing stage accounts for over 90% of the total in open system and it is up to 95% in closed system; the change of artificial sine-freezing temperature has no influence on the frost-heave degree in closed system, however, slight influence in open system. It is found that the variation of temperature gradient of sine-freezing specimen lags behind that of sine-freezing temperature with half phase; sine-freezing temperature model can reduce frost-heave degree of soil. Brand new technology is proposed for the application of artificial ground freezing and new study field of artificial freezing is created. 展开更多
关键词 seasonal freezing artificial freezing combined freezing sine-freezing freezing-temperature models frost-heave degree
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Seasonal Variations of Mesospheric Densities Observed by Rayleigh Lidar at Golmud,Qinghai 被引量:4
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作者 DAI Yaru PAN Weilin +3 位作者 QIAO Shuai HU Xiong YAN Zhaoai BAN Chao 《空间科学学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2020年第2期207-214,共8页
From Aug.2013 to Oct.2015,a Rayleigh lidar has been used to study the middle atmosphere at Golmud(36.25°N,94.54°E),Qinghai,located in the northeastern part of the Tibetan Plateau.Mesospheric density profiles... From Aug.2013 to Oct.2015,a Rayleigh lidar has been used to study the middle atmosphere at Golmud(36.25°N,94.54°E),Qinghai,located in the northeastern part of the Tibetan Plateau.Mesospheric density profiles from 50 to 90 km were retrieved based on 205 nights of lidar observation,with a total of 1616hours of operation.We compared our lidar density measurements with SABER observations onboard TIMED satellite and MSIS-00 model data.The results showed that the annual mean density measured by lidar agreed well with SABER data,but both were lower than that of MSIS-00.All datasets exhibited dominant annual oscillation in the mesosphere.From 63 to 85 km,the annual amplitude of lidar density is larger than those of SABER and MSIS-00.PDD(Percentage of Density Difference)was calculated to investigate the mesospheric density climatology.The largest density variations of lidar,MSIS-00,and SABER occurred at around 72 km.Both lidar and SABER PDD reached their maximum in May,about one month earlier than the MSIS-00;while the minimum PDD appeared in late December for all datasets. 展开更多
关键词 Lidar SABER MSIS model Mesospheric density seasonal variations
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Multi-component opportunistic maintenance optimization for wind turbines with consideration of seasonal factor 被引量:4
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作者 SU Chun HU Zhao-yong LIU Yang 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2020年第2期490-499,共10页
Aiming at wind turbines,the opportunistic maintenance optimization is carried out for multi-component system,where minimal repair,imperfect repair,replacement as well as their effects on component’s effective age are... Aiming at wind turbines,the opportunistic maintenance optimization is carried out for multi-component system,where minimal repair,imperfect repair,replacement as well as their effects on component’s effective age are considered.At each inspection point,appropriate maintenance mode is selected according to the component’s effective age and its maintenance threshold.To utilize the maintenance opportunities for the components among the wind turbines,opportunistic maintenance approach is adopted.Meanwhile,the influence of seasonal factor on the component’s failure rate and improvement factor’s decrease with the increase of repair’s times are also taken into account.The maintenance threshold is set as the decision variable,and an opportunistic maintenance optimization model is proposed to minimize wind turbine’s life-cycle maintenance cost.Moreover,genetic algorithm is adopted to solve the model,and the effectiveness is verified with a case study.The results show that based on the component’s inherent reliability and maintainability,the proposed model can provide optimal maintenance plans accordingly.Furthermore,the higher the component’s reliability and maintainability are,the less the times of repair and replacement will be. 展开更多
关键词 wind turbine RELIABILITY seasonal factor multi-component maintenance opportunistic maintenance
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Comparison of Diurnal,Seasonal and Solar Cycle Variations of High-latitude,Mid-latitude and Low-latitude Ionosphere 被引量:1
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作者 K G RATOVSKY J K SHI +1 位作者 A V OINATS E B ROMANOVA 《空间科学学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2014年第2期143-153,共11页
Comparison of regular(diurnal,seasonal and solar cycle)variations of high-latitude,mid-latitude and low-latitude ionospheric characteristics has been provided on basis of local empirical models of the peak electron de... Comparison of regular(diurnal,seasonal and solar cycle)variations of high-latitude,mid-latitude and low-latitude ionospheric characteristics has been provided on basis of local empirical models of the peak electron density and the peak height.The local empirical models were derived from the hand-scaled ionogram data recorded by DPS-4 digisondes located at Norilsk(69°N,88°E),Irkutsk(52°N,104°E)and Hainan(19°N,109°E)for a 6-year period from December,2002 to December,2008.The technique used to build the local empirical model is described.The primary focus is diurnal-seasonal behavior under low solar activity and its change with increasing solar activity.Both common and specific features of the high-latitude(Norilsk),mid-latitude(Irkutsk)and low-latitude(Hainan)regular variations were revealed using their local empirical models. 展开更多
关键词 High- mid-and low-latitude ionosphere Local model DIURNAL seasonal and solar activity behavior
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In-situ experiment investigations of hydrothermal process of highway in deep seasonal frozen soil regions of Inner Mongolia, China 被引量:5
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作者 ZHANG Hong-wei WANG Xue-ying +1 位作者 ZHAO Xin LIU Peng-fei 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2020年第7期2082-2093,共12页
To reveal the influencing factors and changing rules for the hydrothermal interaction process of highway subgrade, the field measurements of Shiwei-Labudalin Highway in Inner Mongolia, China was conducted for 3 years,... To reveal the influencing factors and changing rules for the hydrothermal interaction process of highway subgrade, the field measurements of Shiwei-Labudalin Highway in Inner Mongolia, China was conducted for 3 years, based on which the freezing-thawing rules and water content changing characteristics were analyzed. The main results show the subgrade presents a frequent freezing-thawing alternation, and the water content of subgrade exhibits an obvious seasonal alternation. The subbase has the maximum water content, while the base has the minimum water content. The change of water flux is concentrated in the thawing period and consistent with the change of temperature gradient. The subbase layer has the most active water flux due to the heat absorption and impermeability of pavement that easily causes the water accumulation in this layer. Therefore, the prevention and treatment for the freezing-thawing disease should be started from heat insulation and water resistance. 展开更多
关键词 subgrade engineering hydrothermal process field observation seasonal frozen soil regions freezing-thawing disease
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Field study of seasonal thermal comfort and adaptive behavior for occupants in residential buildings of Xi’an,China 被引量:3
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作者 WEI Na ZHENG Wu-xing +3 位作者 ZHANG Nan ZHAO Sheng-kai ZHAI Yong-chao YANG Liu 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2022年第7期2403-2414,共12页
The study aims to investigate the thermal comfort requirements in residential buildings and to establish an adaptive thermal comfort model in the cold zone of China.A year-long field study was conducted in residential... The study aims to investigate the thermal comfort requirements in residential buildings and to establish an adaptive thermal comfort model in the cold zone of China.A year-long field study was conducted in residential buildings in Xi’an,China.A total of 2069 valid questionnaires,along with indoor environmental parameters were obtained.The results indicated occupants’thermal comfort requirements varied with seasons.The neutral temperatures were 17.9,26.1(highest),25.2,and 17.4℃(lowest),and preferred temperatures were 23.2,25.6(highest),24.8,and 22.4℃(lowest),respectively for spring,summer,autumn,and winter.The neutral temperature and preferred temperature in autumn are close to the neutral temperature in summer,while the neutral temperature and preferred temperature in spring are close to that in winter.Besides,the 80%and 90%acceptable temperature ranges,adaptive thermal comfort models,and thermal comfort zones for each season were established.Human’s adaptability is related to his/her thermal experience of the current season and the previous season.Therefore,compared with the traditional year-round adaptive thermal comfort model,seasonal models can better reflect seasonal variations of human adaptation.This study provides fundamental knowledge of the thermal comfort demand for people in this region. 展开更多
关键词 thermal comfort seasonal variation adaptive thermal comfort model energy saving residential buildings
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Hybrid grey model to forecast monitoring series with seasonality 被引量:3
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作者 王琪洁 廖新浩 +3 位作者 周永宏 邹峥嵘 朱建军 彭悦 《Journal of Central South University of Technology》 2005年第5期623-627,共5页
The grey forecasting model has been successfully applied to many fields. However, the precision of GM(1,1) model is not high. In order to remove the seasonal fluctuations in monitoring series before building GM(1,1) m... The grey forecasting model has been successfully applied to many fields. However, the precision of GM(1,1) model is not high. In order to remove the seasonal fluctuations in monitoring series before building GM(1,1) model, the forecasting series of GM(1,1) was built, and an inverse process was used to resume the seasonal fluctuations. Two deseasonalization methods were presented , i.e., seasonal index-based deseasonalization and standard normal distribution-based deseasonalization. They were combined with the GM(1,1) model to form hybrid grey models. A simple but practical method to further improve the forecasting results was also suggested. For comparison, a conventional periodic function model was investigated. The concept and algorithms were tested with four years monthly monitoring data. The results show that on the whole the seasonal index-GM(1,1) model outperform the conventional periodic function model and the conventional periodic function model outperform the SND-GM(1,1) model. The mean Absolute error and mean square error of seasonal index-GM(1,1) are 30.69% and 54.53% smaller than that of conventional periodic function model, respectively. The high accuracy, straightforward and easy implementation natures of the proposed hybrid seasonal index-grey model make it a powerful analysis technique for seasonal monitoring series. 展开更多
关键词 seasonal index GM(1 1) grey forecasting model time series
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Interferometric coherence and seasonal deformation characteristics analysis of saline soil based on Sentinel-1A time series imagery 被引量:1
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作者 ZHANG Rui XIANG Wei +5 位作者 LIU Guoxiang WANG Xiaowen MAO Wenfei FU Yin CAI Jialun ZHANG Bo 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2021年第6期1270-1283,共14页
Affected by the natural environmental and human activity factors,significant seasonal differences appear on the regional scattering characteristic and ground deformation of saline soil.Interferometric decorrelation du... Affected by the natural environmental and human activity factors,significant seasonal differences appear on the regional scattering characteristic and ground deformation of saline soil.Interferometric decorrelation due to season replacement limits the conventional multi-temporal interferometric synthetic aperture radar(MT-InSAR)technique and its application in such areas.To extend the monitoring capability in the salt desert area,we select a vast basin of saline soil around Howz-e-Soltan Salt Lake of Iran as the study area and present an improved MTInSAR for experimental research.Based on 131 C-band Sentinel-1 A images collected between October 2014 to July 2020,1896 refined interferograms in total are selected from all interferogram candidates.Interferometric coherence analysis shows that the coherence in the saline soil area has an apparent seasonal variation,and the soil moisture affected by the precipitation may be the main factor that leads to the seasonal variation.Subsequently,the deformation characteristics of saline soil under different environmental conditions and human activity factors are compared and analyzed in detail.Related deformation mechanisms of different saline soil types are initially revealed by combining interferometric coherence,meteorological data,and engineering geological characteristics of saline soil.Related results would provide reference for the large-scale infrastructure construction engineering in similar saline soil areas. 展开更多
关键词 Howz-e-Soltan Salt Lake saline soil multi-temporal InSAR interferometric coherence seasonal deformation Sentinel-1A
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Seasonal Variability of the Mixed Layer Temperature in the Southwestern Tropical Indian Ocean
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作者 B.Praveen Kumar Jerome Vialard Gregory R.Foltz 《地学前缘》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2009年第S1期122-123,共2页
The 5°S-10°S band in the Indian Ocean,named recently as Seychelles-Chagos Thermocline Ridge (SCTR),is a region where several phenomena of significant climatic influence build up.It is a generation region for... The 5°S-10°S band in the Indian Ocean,named recently as Seychelles-Chagos Thermocline Ridge (SCTR),is a region where several phenomena of significant climatic influence build up.It is a generation region for tropical cyclones striking the inhabited islands in the Indian Ocean and the African coast.It was recently shown that it is one of the regions where atmospheric intraseasonal variability (e.g.Madden Julian Oscillation,MJO) is 展开更多
关键词 INDIAN ocean heat BUDGET seasonal cycle advection ENTRAINMENT FORCING
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Seasonal Variation of Major Elements in South Lake Cyohoha, Rwanda
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作者 Jean de Dieu Bazimenyera Fu Qiang Théophila Niragire 《Journal of Northeast Agricultural University(English Edition)》 CAS 2014年第1期56-63,共8页
The paper analyzed the seasonal variation of the concentrations of Cr, Mn, A1, N, P, As, Ba, Ca, Cu, Fe, Mg, and K in South Lake Cyohoha water using spectroscopic technique. Water samples were taken monthly at Ngenda,... The paper analyzed the seasonal variation of the concentrations of Cr, Mn, A1, N, P, As, Ba, Ca, Cu, Fe, Mg, and K in South Lake Cyohoha water using spectroscopic technique. Water samples were taken monthly at Ngenda, Karehe and Nyamabuye stations from January 2009 to December 2010. The results showed that the concentrations of aluminum, nitrogen, potassium, arsenic, phosphorous, manganese, chromium, barium and copper were high during the raining season and low during the dry season, while calcium, iron and magnesium varied independently with seasonal change. The results of conductivity and pH also confirmed the effects of seasonal change on the quality of water in the South Lake Cyohoha since the highest value of conductivity was found during the raining season, while the smallest was observed during the dry season, for pH the highest number was noticed during the dry season and the lowest during the raining season. 展开更多
关键词 seasonal variation CONCENTRATION QUALITY South Lake Cyohoha
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EFFECT OF SOIL MOISTURE-ENERGY DISTRIBUTION AND MELTING-FREEZING PROCESSES ON SEASONAL SHIFT IN TIBETAN PLATEAU
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作者 Yang Meixue 1, Yao Tandong 1, He Yuanqing 1,Toshio Koike 2 2 Nagaoka University o 《地学前缘》 EI CAS CSCD 2000年第S1期441-441,共1页
As one of the major projects of GAME (GEWEX Asian Monsoon Experiment), the GAME\|Tibet aimed to mainly examine the energy and water cycle in Tibetan Plateau and its effects on Asian monsoon. In this paper, based on th... As one of the major projects of GAME (GEWEX Asian Monsoon Experiment), the GAME\|Tibet aimed to mainly examine the energy and water cycle in Tibetan Plateau and its effects on Asian monsoon. In this paper, based on the in\|situ high\|resolution observation data of GAME\|Tibet, the soil energy\|moisture distribution and the melting\|freezing progresses and their effects on seasonal shift were preliminarily discussed.The soil energy\|water distribution and freezing\|melting processes varied at different sites in northern part of Tibetan Plateau. The temporal and spatial variation of the soil moisture content is more complex than that of temperature. The soil moisture content increased with depth in certain layers but decreased in other layers. The freezing and melting processes and the temperature distribution were largely influenced by the existence of higher soil moisture content layer. During summer monsoon, the soil moisture at 10cm at all sites is relatively high, but the spatial difference existed. Generally speaking, the shallow layers start to freeze in October and to melt from April at all sites, with about 6 months frozen period. However, the beginning time of freezing\|melting and frozen period varied at different sites. 展开更多
关键词 SOIL water\|energy distribution SOIL melting\|freezing proce sses seasonal SHIFT northern part of TIBETAN plateau
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季节性淹水对长江滩地杨树林土壤理化性质和酶活性及微生物群落的影响 被引量:4
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作者 苗婷婷 吴中能 +5 位作者 刘俊龙 丁昌俊 曹志华 孙慧 闫彩霞 杨传宝 《东北林业大学学报》 CAS 北大核心 2025年第1期134-146,共13页
为了探明季节性淹水对林分地力的影响,以安徽沿江地区滩地杨树林土壤为研究对象,对季节性淹水前后,土壤(0<深度(h)≤60 cm)的养分质量分数、物理性质及酶活性进行测定;采用高通量测序技术对土壤微生物群落组成、多样性、空间结构及... 为了探明季节性淹水对林分地力的影响,以安徽沿江地区滩地杨树林土壤为研究对象,对季节性淹水前后,土壤(0<深度(h)≤60 cm)的养分质量分数、物理性质及酶活性进行测定;采用高通量测序技术对土壤微生物群落组成、多样性、空间结构及功能类群等进行测定,分析环境因子与土壤微生物群落的相互作用及其潜在关系。结果表明:季节性淹水后,滩地杨树林土壤0<h≤60 cm土层的pH显著升高;除全磷、速效钾、水解氮养分外,其他养分质量分数均极显著降低;田间持水量极显著增加;土壤脲酶、酸性磷酸酶的活性均有所下降,其中酸性磷酸酶活性降幅达99.68%;过氧化氢酶活性总体上升。季节性淹水改变了土壤细菌、真菌优势菌群的相对丰度,未显著提高微生物群落的丰富性和多样性,但改变了土壤真菌群落多样性在各土层间的变化趋势。非度量多维尺度分析(NMDS)和相似性分析(ANOSIM)发现,淹水前的细菌群落结构与淹水后具有显著差异;淹水前的真菌群落结构与淹水后具有极显著差异;且淹水后各土层间的细菌、真菌群落均呈显著差异。功能预测结果表明:土壤细菌生态功能以化能异养、好氧化能异养、硝化作用、氨氧化作用功能类群为主,季节性淹水后,土壤40 cm<h≤60 cm土层中,细菌群落的亚硝酸盐呼吸、硝化、亚硝态氮反硝化功能较为丰富。土壤真菌群落主要功能在淹水后,由病理-腐生-共生过渡型(33.13%)向病理营养型(20.74%)转变。淹水前后,土壤0<h≤20 cm土层真菌群落的植物病原菌相对丰度差异显著。冗余分析和相关性分析结果表明:pH、酸性磷酸酶、脲酶、过氧化氢酶、水解氮、全钾是影响微生物群落的主要环境因子。 展开更多
关键词 季节性淹水 杨树人工林 地力维护 土壤理化性质 微生物群落
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基于稠密雨量观测的四川省复杂地形降水特征分析 被引量:3
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作者 周秋雪 康岚 +1 位作者 龙柯吉 冯良敏 《高原气象》 北大核心 2025年第2期302-310,共9页
基于四川省空间稠密的3454个站点逐小时降水资料及高精度格点海拔高度资料,对四川省7个区域近10年的降水特征进行分析。研究发现:(1)四川省汛期雨量有三个大值中心:盆地西南部雅安、盆地西北部安州区和攀西地区南部盐边,其中安州区是全... 基于四川省空间稠密的3454个站点逐小时降水资料及高精度格点海拔高度资料,对四川省7个区域近10年的降水特征进行分析。研究发现:(1)四川省汛期雨量有三个大值中心:盆地西南部雅安、盆地西北部安州区和攀西地区南部盐边,其中安州区是全省的大暴雨中心,汛期雨量主要由R_(24)≥100 mm的天气过程贡献。(2)受山脉走向和地形陡峭程度影响,盆周大值区形态和等值线梯度均有明显差异,且累积雨量越大,站点越向山脉迎风坡集中。(3)夜雨比率自西南向东北逐渐减弱,其中攀枝花夜雨比率为全省最大。(4)大雨及以上量级的强降水雨日分布与地形关系密切,大暴雨日站点仅分布在盆地西部与高原的陡峭过渡区。另外盆地西北部暴雨日中出现小时雨强≥50 mm·h^(-1)的站点比率最高。(5)相较持续性大雨而言,持续性暴雨的站点分布受迎风坡地形影响更加显著。 展开更多
关键词 四川 强降水 陡峭地形 夜雨 汛期
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马堃“因时制宜”治疗卵巢储备功能下降不孕症用药特点浅析 被引量:1
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作者 马堃 王越 +1 位作者 钟观兰 孙立华 《辽宁中医杂志》 北大核心 2025年第5期18-21,共4页
卵巢储备功能下降是女性生殖内分泌疾病中的常见病和难治病,也是导致不孕症的重要病因。马堃教授指出肾虚血瘀是卵巢储备功能下降不孕症的主要病因病机,在“病—证—症”模式的指导下,运用中医药补肾活血,调月经—促排卵—助种子—安胞... 卵巢储备功能下降是女性生殖内分泌疾病中的常见病和难治病,也是导致不孕症的重要病因。马堃教授指出肾虚血瘀是卵巢储备功能下降不孕症的主要病因病机,在“病—证—症”模式的指导下,运用中医药补肾活血,调月经—促排卵—助种子—安胞胎,“因时制宜”,以月经周期(经前期、行经期、经后期、经间期)为基调整方药组成,配合四时节气(春生、夏长、秋收、冬藏)加减用药,疗效显著。 展开更多
关键词 卵巢储备功能下降 不孕症 因时制宜 月经周期 四时节气
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2024年2月华东和华中大范围低温雨雪冰冻灾害的成因和可预报性分析 被引量:6
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作者 赵俊虎 赵语欣 +3 位作者 贾小龙 张涵 熊开国 曾宇星 《气象》 北大核心 2025年第1期17-29,共13页
利用全国2374个站点的逐日气温和降水资料、NCEP/NCAR大气环流再分析资料和Hadley中心的海温资料,研究了2024年2月华东和华中大范围低温雨雪冰冻灾害成因和可预报性。结果表明:2024年2月上旬和下旬这两次大范围低温雨雪冰冻天气过程,发... 利用全国2374个站点的逐日气温和降水资料、NCEP/NCAR大气环流再分析资料和Hadley中心的海温资料,研究了2024年2月华东和华中大范围低温雨雪冰冻灾害成因和可预报性。结果表明:2024年2月上旬和下旬这两次大范围低温雨雪冰冻天气过程,发生地区重叠度高,冰雪灾害严重;影响两次过程的副热带和中高纬环流系统配置较为一致,西北太平洋副热带高压(以下简称副高)稳定偏强和偏西,西伯利亚高压、南支槽和西北太平洋反气旋阶段性同步偏强,形成较强的协同作用,西伯利亚高压增强导致冷空气南下,副高、南支槽和西北太平洋反气旋同步增强则为华东和华中提供了充沛的水汽条件;2023年5月至2024年4月赤道中东太平洋地区发生了一次中等强度的El Nino事件,冬季热带印度洋和热带北大西洋海温异常偏暖,三大洋海温异常共同导致了副高持续偏强,也有利于西北太平洋反气旋的阶段性发展和增强,为2月的两次过程提供了充沛的水汽条件;次季节模式对两次过程的预报时效在1~2周左右,起报时间在2周以上时,目前模式无法准确预测欧亚中高纬环流系统的异常特征,导致对两次过程的预测能力较低。 展开更多
关键词 低温雨雪冻雨 El Nino 成因 次季节可预报性
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番茄价格季节性波动规律及动态变化特征研究 被引量:1
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作者 项朝阳 宋长鸣 肖小勇 《中国蔬菜》 北大核心 2025年第6期14-20,共7页
采用X-12-ARIMA模型分析了番茄价格的季节性波动及动态特征,主要结论为:2004—2023年,番茄价格季节性波动最高点为每年2月,季节性因素导致番茄价格平均上涨了24.13%;季节性波动最低点为每年7月,季节性因素导致番茄价格平均下跌了24.83%... 采用X-12-ARIMA模型分析了番茄价格的季节性波动及动态特征,主要结论为:2004—2023年,番茄价格季节性波动最高点为每年2月,季节性因素导致番茄价格平均上涨了24.13%;季节性波动最低点为每年7月,季节性因素导致番茄价格平均下跌了24.83%。1、3、4、5月和12月是番茄价格季节性上涨的月份,平均上涨幅度分别是19.54%、20.13%、16.44%、0.36%和4.62%。6、8、9、10月和11月是番茄价格季节性下跌的月份,研究期限内平均下跌幅度分别为20.99%、22.89%、12.02%、3.25%和0.52%。动态来看,番茄价格季节性波动幅度呈现缩小趋势,原因是季节性波动高点不断走低,季节性波动低点却走高。总体来看,2、3月和4月番茄价格季节性涨幅有缩小趋势,12月却呈现扩大态势;6、7、8月番茄价格季节性跌幅也呈现缩小趋势;5月番茄价格由季节性上涨转为下跌;11月则由季节性下跌转为季节性上涨。 展开更多
关键词 番茄 价格 季节性 X-12-ARIMA模型
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乌东德水库浮游植物群落时空动态特征及其环境影响因素 被引量:1
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作者 张地继 田楚铭 +5 位作者 高玉磊 齐青松 路斌 刘妍 毕永红 米武娟 《水生态学杂志》 北大核心 2025年第4期174-184,共11页
分析乌东德水库浮游植物群落时空变化特征及其环境影响因素,为水库的生态保护和管理提供数据资料。2022年春季(5月)、夏季(8月)、秋季(11月)和冬季(12月)在乌东德水库设置10个采样点进行了浮游植物样品采集和环境因子调查,采用ANOSIM分... 分析乌东德水库浮游植物群落时空变化特征及其环境影响因素,为水库的生态保护和管理提供数据资料。2022年春季(5月)、夏季(8月)、秋季(11月)和冬季(12月)在乌东德水库设置10个采样点进行了浮游植物样品采集和环境因子调查,采用ANOSIM分析各季节的优势种,用Pearson相关性分析探究生物量及细胞密度与环境因子的关系,用非度量多维尺度分析(NMDS)探究浮游植物优势种群落结构季节演替。调查期间共采集并鉴定出浮游植物124种,隶属于7门77属,主要为硅藻和绿藻,优势种有11种;浮游植物群落时空差异显著(P<0.05),生物量表现出夏季>秋季>春季>冬季、支流>干流的特征;Pearson相关性分析表明,浮游植物生物量和细胞密度与水温、总氮、总磷、透明度、流速、浊度和高锰酸盐指数具有显著相关性(P<0.05);NMDS分析表明优势种的季节差异显著(P<0.05),浮游植物群落呈明显的季节演替;RDA分析结果表明,浮游植物优势种演替与水环境因子关系密切,驱动时间异质性的主要因子为总磷、正磷酸盐、浊度和pH。 展开更多
关键词 浮游植物 群落结构 季节演替 环境因子 乌东德水库
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2024年夏季中国气候异常特征及成因分析 被引量:5
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作者 李想 郑志海 《气象》 北大核心 2025年第1期110-121,共12页
2024年夏季,中国降水偏多、气温偏高。全国平均气温22.3℃,为1961年以来历史同期第一,高温天气过程偏早、范围广、极端性强;降水空间分布上呈“东多西少”分布,东北南部、内蒙古中部、华北东部、华东北部、华中北部和西南部、西北地区... 2024年夏季,中国降水偏多、气温偏高。全国平均气温22.3℃,为1961年以来历史同期第一,高温天气过程偏早、范围广、极端性强;降水空间分布上呈“东多西少”分布,东北南部、内蒙古中部、华北东部、华东北部、华中北部和西南部、西北地区东部等地降水较常年同期偏多5成至1倍。夏季台风生成个数和登陆个数均偏少。2023年5月开始的中等强度El Nino事件在2024年5月结束并向冷海温发展,2023/2024年冬季以来,热带印度洋和北大西洋海温均为历史同期最暖,热带三大洋的异常海温分布有利于夏季西太平洋副热带高压增强,将充沛的太平洋和印度洋水汽输送到中国东部,使得东部季风区降水大范围偏多,强降水过程多。 展开更多
关键词 气候异常 季节内变化 西太平洋副热带高压 副热带西风急流
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基于SARIMA-SVM模型的季节性PM_(2.5)浓度预测 被引量:1
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作者 宋英华 徐亚安 张远进 《计算机工程》 北大核心 2025年第1期51-59,共9页
空气污染是城市环境治理的主要问题之一,而PM_(2.5)是影响空气质量的重要因素。针对传统时间序列预测模型对PM_(2.5)浓度预测缺少季节性因素分析,预测精度不够高的问题,提出一种基于机器学习的季节性差分自回归滑动平均-支持向量机(SARI... 空气污染是城市环境治理的主要问题之一,而PM_(2.5)是影响空气质量的重要因素。针对传统时间序列预测模型对PM_(2.5)浓度预测缺少季节性因素分析,预测精度不够高的问题,提出一种基于机器学习的季节性差分自回归滑动平均-支持向量机(SARIMA-SVM)融合模型。该融合模型为串联型融合模型,将数据拆分为线性部分与非线性部分。SARIMA模型在差分自回归滑动平均(ARIMA)模型的基础上增加了季节性因素提取参数,能有效分析PM_(2.5)浓度数据的季节性规律变化趋势,较好地预测数据未来的线性变化趋势。结合SVM模型对预测数据的残差序列进行优化,利用滑动步长预测法确定残差序列的最优预测步长,通过网格搜索确定最优模型参数,实现对PM_(2.5)浓度数据的长期预测,同时提高整体预测精度。通过对武汉市近5年的PM_(2.5)浓度监测数据进行分析,结果表明该融合模型的预测准确率相较于单一模型有很大提升,在相同的实验环境下比单一的ARIMA、Auto ARIMA、SARIMA模型分别提升了99%、99%、98%,稳定性也更好,为PM_(2.5)浓度预测研究提供了新的思路。 展开更多
关键词 季节性差分自回归滑动平均 支持向量机 融合模型 PM_(2.5)浓度 季节性预测
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