Credit risk assessment is a crucial task in bank risk management.By making lending decisions based on credit risk assessment results,banks can reduce the probability of non-performing loans.However,class imbalance in ...Credit risk assessment is a crucial task in bank risk management.By making lending decisions based on credit risk assessment results,banks can reduce the probability of non-performing loans.However,class imbalance in bank credit default datasets limits the predictive performance of traditional machine learning and deep learning models.To address this issue,this study employs the conditional variational autoencoder-Wasserstein generative adversarial network with gradient penalty(CVAE-WGAN-gp)model for oversampling,generating samples similar to the original default customer data to enhance model prediction performance.To evaluate the quality of the data generated by the CVAE-WGAN-gp model,we selected several bank loan datasets for experimentation.The experimental results demonstrate that using the CVAE-WGAN-gp model for oversampling can significantly improve the predictive performance in credit risk assessment problems.展开更多
The Changsha-Xiangtan-Zhuzhou City Group is a heavy industrial district and accepted as the serious pollution area in the Xiangjiang River basin.In this study,7 metals(Pb,Hg,Cd,As,Zn,Cu and Se)and the river water qual...The Changsha-Xiangtan-Zhuzhou City Group is a heavy industrial district and accepted as the serious pollution area in the Xiangjiang River basin.In this study,7 metals(Pb,Hg,Cd,As,Zn,Cu and Se)and the river water quality parameters including pH,dissolved oxygen(DO),Escherichia coli(E.coli),potassium permanganate index(CODMn),dichromate oxidizability(CODCr),five-day biochemical oxygen demand(BOD5),ammonia nitrogen(NH4+-N),total nitrogen(TN),total phosphorus(TP)and fluoride(F)in 18 sampling sites of the Changsha-Xiangtan-Zhuzhou section are monthly monitored in 2016,which is the year to step into the second stage of the“Xiangjiang River Heavy Metal Pollution Control Implementation Plan”.It is found that E.coli,TN and TP are the main pollutants in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan section,and the pollution of heavy metal is not serious but As with potential risk to local people especially children should be concerned.In addition,Xiangtan city is mainly featured with heavy metal pollution,while Zhuzhou and Changsha city are both featured with other pollutants from municipal domestic sewage.展开更多
Water inrush is one of the most serious geological hazards in underground engineering construction.In order to effectively prevent and control the occurrence of water inrush,a new attribute interval recognition theory...Water inrush is one of the most serious geological hazards in underground engineering construction.In order to effectively prevent and control the occurrence of water inrush,a new attribute interval recognition theory and method is proposed to systematically evaluate the risk of water inrush in karst tunnels.Its innovation mainly includes that the value of evaluation index is an interval rather than a certain value;the single-index attribute evaluation model is improved non-linearly based on the idea of normal distribution;the synthetic attribute interval analysis method based on improved intuitionistic fuzzy theory is proposed.The TFN-AHP method is proposed to analyze the weight of evaluation index.By analyzing geological factors and engineering factors in tunnel zone,a multi-grade hierarchical index system for tunnel water inrush risk assessment is established.The proposed method is applied to ventilation incline of Xiakou tunnel,and its rationality and practicability is verified by comparison with field situation and evaluation results of other methods.In addition,the results evaluated by this method,which considers that water inrush is a complex non-linear system and the geological conditions have spatial variability,are more accurate and reliable.And it has good applicability in solving the problem of certain and uncertain problem.展开更多
In operation,risk arising from power transformer faults is of much uncertainty and complicacy.To timely and objectively control the risks,a transformer risk assessment method based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(...In operation,risk arising from power transformer faults is of much uncertainty and complicacy.To timely and objectively control the risks,a transformer risk assessment method based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP) and artificial neural network(ANN) from the perspective of accuracy and quickness is proposed.An analytic hierarchy process model for the transformer risk assessment is built by analysis of the risk factors affecting the transformer risk level and the weight relation of each risk factor in transformer risk calculation is analyzed by application of fuzzy consistency judgment matrix;with utilization of adaptive ability and nonlinear mapping ability of the ANN,the risk factors with large weights are used as input of neutral network,and thus intelligent quantitative assessment of transformer risk is realized.The simulation result shows that the proposed method increases the speed and accuracy of the risk assessment and can provide feasible decision basis for the transformer risk management and maintenance decisions.展开更多
Floor water inrush is one of the main types of coal mine water hazards.With the development of deep mining,the prediction and evaluation of floor water inrush is particularly significant.This paper proposes a variable...Floor water inrush is one of the main types of coal mine water hazards.With the development of deep mining,the prediction and evaluation of floor water inrush is particularly significant.This paper proposes a variable weight model,which combines a multi-factor interaction matrix(MFIM)and the technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS)to implement the risk assessment of floor water inrush in coal mines.Based on the MFIM,the interaction between seven evaluation indices,including the confined water pressure,water supply condition and aquifer water yield property,floor aquifuge thickness,fault water transmitting ability,fracture development degree,mining depth and thickness and their influence on floor water inrush were considered.After calculating the constant weights,the active degree evaluation was used to assign a variable weight to the indices.The values of the middle layer and final risk level were obtained by TOPSIS.The presented model was successfully applied in the 9901 working face in the Taoyang Mine and four additional coal mines and the results were highly consistent with the engineering situations.Compared with the existing nonlinear evaluation methods,the proposed model had advantages in terms of the weighting,principle explanation,and algorithm structure.展开更多
Assisted by framework of multimedia total exposure model for hazard waste sites(CalTOX),potential influences of scenario-uncertainty on multimedia health risk assessment(MHRA) and decision-making were quantitatively a...Assisted by framework of multimedia total exposure model for hazard waste sites(CalTOX),potential influences of scenario-uncertainty on multimedia health risk assessment(MHRA) and decision-making were quantitatively analyzed in a primary extent under the Chinese scenario case by deliberately varying the two key scenario-elements,namely conceptual exposure pathways combination and aim receptor cohorts choice.Results show that the independent change of one exposure pathway or receptor cohort could lead variation of MHRA results in the range of 3.6×10-6-1.4×10-5 or 6.7×10-6-2.3×10-5.And randomly simultaneous change of those two elements could lead variation of MHRA results at the range of 7.7×10-8-2.3×10-5.On the basis of the corresponding sensitivity analysis,pathways which made a valid contribution to the final modeling risk value occupied only 16.7% of all considered pathways.Afterwards,comparative analysis between influence of parameter-uncertainty and influence of scenario-uncertainty was made.In consideration of interrelationship among all types of uncertainties and financial reasonability during MHRA procedures,the integrated method how to optimize the entire procedures of MHRA was presented innovatively based on sensitivity analysis,scenario-discussion and nest Monte Carlo simulation or fuzzy mathematics.展开更多
Mine safety have top-five disasters,which including the water,gas,fire,dust and geological dynamic disaster.The coal mine water disaster is one of the important factors which restricted the development of China’s coa...Mine safety have top-five disasters,which including the water,gas,fire,dust and geological dynamic disaster.The coal mine water disaster is one of the important factors which restricted the development of China’s coal production.It is showed by statistics that 60%of mine accidents are affected by groundwater,which not only result in the production losses.展开更多
In order to make the relevant risk departments and the agricultural producers have a clearer understanding of maize cold damage, the data of daily average temperature of 83 meteorological stations in Heilongjiang Prov...In order to make the relevant risk departments and the agricultural producers have a clearer understanding of maize cold damage, the data of daily average temperature of 83 meteorological stations in Heilongjiang Province from 1986 to 2015, and the risk assessment model of maize cold damage in northeast China were used, and the risk index values of maize cold damage in Heilongjiang Province from 1986 to 2015 were calculated. And according to the risk index values, Heilongjiang Province was divided into five risk areas. The results showed that the high risk areas and the sub-high risk areas of maize cold damage in Heilongjiang Province in recent 30 years were in Daqing and Suihua cities, the medium risk areas were located in the center of the Songnen Plain and other regions, the sub-low risk areas were located in the Songnen Plain, and most of the rest were the low risk areas.展开更多
Forest fire accidents caused by distribution line faults occur frequently,resulting in heavy impacts on people’s safety and social and economic development.Currently,there are few risk assessments for forest fires in...Forest fire accidents caused by distribution line faults occur frequently,resulting in heavy impacts on people’s safety and social and economic development.Currently,there are few risk assessments for forest fires induced by over-head distribution lines,and existing assessment methods may have difficulties in data acquisition.On this basis,a novel as-sessment framework based on an analytic hierarchy process,a Bayesian network and a Fussel-Vesely importance metric is proposed in this paper.The framework combines field research and historical operation and maintenance data to assess the regional-scale risk of forest fires induced by overhead distribution lines to derive the probability of forest fires and to identify high-risk lines and key hazard events in the assessment region.Finally,taking the southern Anhui region as an ex-ample,the annual fire probability of forest fires induced by overhead distribution lines in the southern Anhui region is 5.88%,and rectification measures are proposed.This study provides management with a complete assessment framework that optimizes the difficulty of data collection and allows for additional targeted corrective measures to be proposed for the entire region and route on the basis of the assessment results.展开更多
Five trace elements including Zn, Cu, Cd, Cr and As were investigated in surface water from ten typical sampling sites in Honghu Lake. The consequence indicated that all of the detected trace element levels were withi...Five trace elements including Zn, Cu, Cd, Cr and As were investigated in surface water from ten typical sampling sites in Honghu Lake. The consequence indicated that all of the detected trace element levels were within the allowed standard of China’s safe water guideline. The hazard quotients （HQ） and the hazard index （HI） value levels of all the five heavy metals in all sampling sites did not exceed the acceptable risk limits of non-carcinogenic value through the selected assessment method. Pearson’s correlation analysis and principal component analysis （PCA） indicated that Zn and Cu mainly originated from the natural alluviation and non-point agricultural sources, whereas Cr and As were mainly derived from industrial effluents. Moreover, Cd mainly originated from both non-point agricultural and industrial pollution sources. In addition, cluster analysis （CA） implied that cluster 1 （including S3, S5, S6 and S10） was considered the set of high pollution sites and cluster 2 （including S4 and S9） was identified as the set of moderate pollution sites.展开更多
Interplanetary meteoroids and space debris can impact satellites orbiting the Earth or spacecraft traveling to the Moon.Targeting China Space Station(CSS),7 satellites selected from the constellation of Beidou Navigat...Interplanetary meteoroids and space debris can impact satellites orbiting the Earth or spacecraft traveling to the Moon.Targeting China Space Station(CSS),7 satellites selected from the constellation of Beidou Navigation Satellite System Phase III(BDS-3),and 3 spacecraft orbiting the Moon,we have adopted in the paper the Meteoroid Engineering Model 3,Divine-Staubach meteoroid environment model,and Jenniskens-McBride meteoroid steam model to analyze the meteoroid environment with the mass range of 10–6~10 g.Orbital Debris Engineering Model 3.1 space debris model is used to analyze the orbital debris environment faced by these satellites.The flux of space debris with a size larger than 100μm is compared with that of the meteoroids.The results show that the space debris flux encountered by China Space Station is much higher than that of the meteoroids with sizes in the above range.And quite the opposite,the meteoroids flux impacting the 7 satellites from the BDS-3 is higher.Upon adopting the double-layer Whipple protection measure,the catastrophic collision flux of these satellites encountering meteoroids is about 10–6 times of that without protection,or even less,implying that the Whipple protection effectively guarantees the safety of the satellites in orbit.Besides,it is also found that the flux of the high-density meteoroid population encountered by each satellite is greater than that of the low-density population,whereas the impact velocity is lower for each satellite.These results can aid the orbit selection and the protection design for satellites and spacecraft.展开更多
Based on the investigation and research on 75 dairy farms in Heilongjiang Province, evaluation index system of dairy farm market risk was set up, and dairy farm market risks were divided into pairing risk, price risk,...Based on the investigation and research on 75 dairy farms in Heilongjiang Province, evaluation index system of dairy farm market risk was set up, and dairy farm market risks were divided into pairing risk, price risk, production risk, contract risk and policy risk, five aspects of a total of 12 assessment indicators. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to evaluate the market risk. The evaluation results showed that the market risk of dairy farms in Heilongjiang Province was at low risk; however, the policy risk was high. Finally, according to the results of the assessment, the suggestions was made as the followings： the government should expand the scope of policy insurance for dairy farming, vigorously promote the development of cooperative organizations and intermediary organizations in dairy farms by purchasing services through government, increase their functional roles and establish strict supervision mechanisms, including the establishment of official advice hotline and consultation channel online and improving third-party testing mechanism; government and the department of management industry would improve their abilities of management and do a good job of training and guiding.展开更多
Recently,I attended a conference organised by the European Food Safety Authority in the beautiful and prosperous Italian city of Parma.The overall topic of the conference was risk assessment,and the program included a...Recently,I attended a conference organised by the European Food Safety Authority in the beautiful and prosperous Italian city of Parma.The overall topic of the conference was risk assessment,and the program included a section on aspects of environmental risk assessment.In various areas,including the evalution of the effects of pesticide applications,invasive organisms or genetically modified plants(Arpaia et al.,2014)preparing an environmental risk assessment is an obviously relevant exercise.展开更多
The no-observed-effect level (NOEL) in a study of carcinogenicity for compounds that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic represents the limit of detection in that bioassay, rather than an estimate of a possible thresh...The no-observed-effect level (NOEL) in a study of carcinogenicity for compounds that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic represents the limit of detection in that bioassay, rather than an estimate of a possible threshold. Therefore, for those genotoxic and carcinogenic contaminants (e.g. acrylamides, PAHs, etc.) in foods it is not possible to develop health-based guidance values (e.g. ADI or PTWI) using the traditional NOEL and safety/uncertainty factors.展开更多
The Western Dongting Lake area,a biodiversity hotspot under traditional farming,has long suffered heavy metal pollution.In this study,the concentrations of As,Cd,Cr,Hg,and Pb in agricultural soils were determined and ...The Western Dongting Lake area,a biodiversity hotspot under traditional farming,has long suffered heavy metal pollution.In this study,the concentrations of As,Cd,Cr,Hg,and Pb in agricultural soils were determined and ecological risks were evaluated using both the hazard quotient(HQ)model and the probabilistic ecological risk assessment(PERA)model.The results showed that HQ suggested slight or negligible risks,whereas PERA indicated consistently high and unacceptable risks.This discrepancy arose because HQ criteria are derived from human health thresholds and provide only deterministic estimates,whereas PERA incorporates species-specific predicted no-effect concentration(P NEC),environmental variability,and uncertainty,thereby providing more precise and site-specific risk assessments and assigning probabilities.By applying a tiered PERA model,our study highlights its novelty and superiority in ecological risk characterization,providing critical guidance for soil management and ecological protection in contaminated farmlands.展开更多
An integrated evaluation system under randomness and fuzziness was developed in this work to systematically assess the risk of groundwater contamination in a little town, Central China. In this system, randomness of t...An integrated evaluation system under randomness and fuzziness was developed in this work to systematically assess the risk of groundwater contamination in a little town, Central China. In this system, randomness of the parameters and the fuzziness of the risk were considered simultaneously, and the exceeding standard probability of contamination and human health risk due to the contamination were integrated. The contamination risk was defined as a combination of "vulnerability" and "hazard". To calculate the value of "vulnerability", pollutant concentration was simulated by MODFLOW with random input variables and a new modified health risk assessment(MRA) model was established to analyze the level of "hazard". The limit concentration based on environmental-guideline and health risk due to manganese were systematically examined to obtain the general risk levels through a fuzzy rule base. The "vulnerability" and "hazard" were divided into five categories of "high", "medium-high", "medium", "low-medium" and "low", respectively. Then, "vulnerability" and "hazard" were firstly combined by integrated evaluation. Compared with the other two scenarios under deterministic methods, the risk obtained in the proposed system is higher. This research illustrated that ignoring of uncertainties in evaluation process might underestimate the risk level.展开更多
Tunnel water inrush is one of the common geological disasters in the underground engineering construction.In order to effectively evaluate and control the occurrence of water inrush,the risk assessment model of tunnel...Tunnel water inrush is one of the common geological disasters in the underground engineering construction.In order to effectively evaluate and control the occurrence of water inrush,the risk assessment model of tunnel water inrush was proposed based on improved attribute mathematical theory.The trigonometric functions were adopted to optimize the attribute mathematical theory,avoiding the influence of mutation points and linear variation zones in traditional linear measurement functions on the accuracy of the model.Based on comprehensive analysis of various factors,five parameters were selected as the evaluation indicators for the model,including tunnel head pressure,permeability coefficient of surrounding rock,crushing degree of surrounding rock,relative angle of joint plane and tunnel section size,under the principle of dimension rationality,independence,directness and quantification.The indicator classifications were determined.The links among measured data were analyzed in detail,and the objective weight of each indicator was determined by using similar weight method.Thereby the tunnel water inrush risk assessment model is established and applied in four target segments of two different tunnels in engineering.The evaluation results and the actual excavation data agree well,which indicates that the model is of high credibility and feasibility.展开更多
To address the problem of sea ice collisions threatening offshore drilling operations in polar regions,this paper proposes a Bayesian network-based collision risk assessment model for drillships.The model integrates l...To address the problem of sea ice collisions threatening offshore drilling operations in polar regions,this paper proposes a Bayesian network-based collision risk assessment model for drillships.The model integrates large ice floe/iceberg conditions,natural environmental factors,and geometric factors derived from the ship’s shape,size,distance,and azimuth.Using iceberg routes,scenario simulations are conducted to evaluate collision probabilities and provide time-dependent risk values.Results demonstrate that the method yields reasonable and consistent assessments of drillship-ice interactions.The proposed method enables automatic collision risk assessment and can be applied to unattended management systems to enhance the safety of polar drilling operations.展开更多
39 soil samples surrounding a lead-zinc mining area in Guangxi were collected,and the contents of Pb,Hg,Cd,Cr,As,Cu,Zn,and Ni were determined to investigate the pollution characteristics and sources of heavy metals.Ar...39 soil samples surrounding a lead-zinc mining area in Guangxi were collected,and the contents of Pb,Hg,Cd,Cr,As,Cu,Zn,and Ni were determined to investigate the pollution characteristics and sources of heavy metals.ArcGIS inverse distance weight difference method was used to analyze the characteristics of pollution distribution,and single-factor pollution index,Nemerow comprehensive pollution index,ground accumulation index,and potential ecological risk index were selected to evaluate the characteristics of heavy metal pollution.Based on correlation analysis,the absolute principal component-multiple linear regression(APCS-MLR)and positive definite matrix factorization(PMF)models were used to analyze the sources of soil heavy metals.The results showed that the average concentrations of all eight heavy metals exceeded both national and Guangxi soil background values.Hg,Cd,and Zn exhibited high variation(greater than 0.5),indicating significant external disturbances,and their spatial distribution was closely related to mining activity locations.The single-factor pollution index evaluation indicated varying degrees of pollution risk for Cd,Zn,and As,with Cd and Zn being the most severe pollutants,as 69.23%and 30.77%of the samples fell into the moderate pollution or higher category.The geoaccumulation index analysis ranked the mean pollution levels of the eight elements as follows:Zn>Cd>Ni>Pb>Cu>Cr>Hg>As,with Cd and Zn showing the most severe contamination,and 51.28%of the samples exhibiting moderate or higher pollution levels.The Nemerow comprehensive pollution index evaluation showed that 74.35%of soil samples were classified as moderate to heavy pollution.The potential ecological risk index assessment indicated significant ecological risks posed by Cd and Zn,with 82.05%and 5.12%of the samples classified as causing strong to extreme ecological risks,respectively.The source apportionment analysis revealed minor differences between the two models.The APCS-MLR model identified three pollution sources and their contribution rates:anthropogenic mining sources(31.13%),parent material sources(40.38%),and unidentified sources(28.49%).The PMF model identified three pollution sources with contribution rates of anthropogenic mining sources(26.10%),parent material sources(46.96%),and a combined traffic and agricultural source(26.61%).Pb,Hg,Cd,and Zn mainly originated from mining activities;Cr,As,and Ni were primarily derived from the parent material,while Cu was predominantly attributed to traffic and agricultural sources.These findings provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of heavy metal pollution in mining areas.展开更多
In this paper, decision mechanism of credit-risk for banks is studied when the loan interest rate is fixed with asymmetry information in credit market. We give out the designs of rationing and non-rationing on credit ...In this paper, decision mechanism of credit-risk for banks is studied when the loan interest rate is fixed with asymmetry information in credit market. We give out the designs of rationing and non-rationing on credit risky decision mechanism when collateral value provided by an entrepreneur is not less than the minimum demands of the bank. It shows that under the action of the mechanism, banks could efficiently identify the risk size of the project. Finally, the condition of the project investigation of bank is given over again.展开更多
基金supported by National Key R&D Program of China(2022YFA1008000)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(12571297,12101585)+1 种基金the CAS Talent Introduction Program(Category B)the Young Elite Scientist Sponsorship Program by CAST(YESS20220125).
文摘Credit risk assessment is a crucial task in bank risk management.By making lending decisions based on credit risk assessment results,banks can reduce the probability of non-performing loans.However,class imbalance in bank credit default datasets limits the predictive performance of traditional machine learning and deep learning models.To address this issue,this study employs the conditional variational autoencoder-Wasserstein generative adversarial network with gradient penalty(CVAE-WGAN-gp)model for oversampling,generating samples similar to the original default customer data to enhance model prediction performance.To evaluate the quality of the data generated by the CVAE-WGAN-gp model,we selected several bank loan datasets for experimentation.The experimental results demonstrate that using the CVAE-WGAN-gp model for oversampling can significantly improve the predictive performance in credit risk assessment problems.
基金Projects(2018YFC1903301,2018YFC1801805)supported by the National Key R&D Program of China
文摘The Changsha-Xiangtan-Zhuzhou City Group is a heavy industrial district and accepted as the serious pollution area in the Xiangjiang River basin.In this study,7 metals(Pb,Hg,Cd,As,Zn,Cu and Se)and the river water quality parameters including pH,dissolved oxygen(DO),Escherichia coli(E.coli),potassium permanganate index(CODMn),dichromate oxidizability(CODCr),five-day biochemical oxygen demand(BOD5),ammonia nitrogen(NH4+-N),total nitrogen(TN),total phosphorus(TP)and fluoride(F)in 18 sampling sites of the Changsha-Xiangtan-Zhuzhou section are monthly monitored in 2016,which is the year to step into the second stage of the“Xiangjiang River Heavy Metal Pollution Control Implementation Plan”.It is found that E.coli,TN and TP are the main pollutants in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan section,and the pollution of heavy metal is not serious but As with potential risk to local people especially children should be concerned.In addition,Xiangtan city is mainly featured with heavy metal pollution,while Zhuzhou and Changsha city are both featured with other pollutants from municipal domestic sewage.
基金Project(51722904)supported by the National Science Fund for Excellent Young Scholars,ChinaProject(51679131)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China+2 种基金Project(2019JZZY010601)supported by the Shandong Provincial Key Research and Development Program(Major Scientific and Technological Innovation Project),ChinaProject(KJ1712304)supported by the Science and Technology Research Program of Chongqing Municipal Education Commission,ChinaProject(2016XJQN13)supported by the Yangtze Normal University Research Project,China
文摘Water inrush is one of the most serious geological hazards in underground engineering construction.In order to effectively prevent and control the occurrence of water inrush,a new attribute interval recognition theory and method is proposed to systematically evaluate the risk of water inrush in karst tunnels.Its innovation mainly includes that the value of evaluation index is an interval rather than a certain value;the single-index attribute evaluation model is improved non-linearly based on the idea of normal distribution;the synthetic attribute interval analysis method based on improved intuitionistic fuzzy theory is proposed.The TFN-AHP method is proposed to analyze the weight of evaluation index.By analyzing geological factors and engineering factors in tunnel zone,a multi-grade hierarchical index system for tunnel water inrush risk assessment is established.The proposed method is applied to ventilation incline of Xiakou tunnel,and its rationality and practicability is verified by comparison with field situation and evaluation results of other methods.In addition,the results evaluated by this method,which considers that water inrush is a complex non-linear system and the geological conditions have spatial variability,are more accurate and reliable.And it has good applicability in solving the problem of certain and uncertain problem.
基金Project(50977003) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘In operation,risk arising from power transformer faults is of much uncertainty and complicacy.To timely and objectively control the risks,a transformer risk assessment method based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP) and artificial neural network(ANN) from the perspective of accuracy and quickness is proposed.An analytic hierarchy process model for the transformer risk assessment is built by analysis of the risk factors affecting the transformer risk level and the weight relation of each risk factor in transformer risk calculation is analyzed by application of fuzzy consistency judgment matrix;with utilization of adaptive ability and nonlinear mapping ability of the ANN,the risk factors with large weights are used as input of neutral network,and thus intelligent quantitative assessment of transformer risk is realized.The simulation result shows that the proposed method increases the speed and accuracy of the risk assessment and can provide feasible decision basis for the transformer risk management and maintenance decisions.
基金Projects(41877239,51379112,51422904,40902084,41772298)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2019GSF111028)supported by the Key Technology Research and Development Program of Shandong Province,China+1 种基金Project(2018JC044)supported by the Fundamental Research Funds of Shandong University,ChinaProject(JQ201513)supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province,China。
文摘Floor water inrush is one of the main types of coal mine water hazards.With the development of deep mining,the prediction and evaluation of floor water inrush is particularly significant.This paper proposes a variable weight model,which combines a multi-factor interaction matrix(MFIM)and the technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS)to implement the risk assessment of floor water inrush in coal mines.Based on the MFIM,the interaction between seven evaluation indices,including the confined water pressure,water supply condition and aquifer water yield property,floor aquifuge thickness,fault water transmitting ability,fracture development degree,mining depth and thickness and their influence on floor water inrush were considered.After calculating the constant weights,the active degree evaluation was used to assign a variable weight to the indices.The values of the middle layer and final risk level were obtained by TOPSIS.The presented model was successfully applied in the 9901 working face in the Taoyang Mine and four additional coal mines and the results were highly consistent with the engineering situations.Compared with the existing nonlinear evaluation methods,the proposed model had advantages in terms of the weighting,principle explanation,and algorithm structure.
基金Projects(50978088,51039001,51178172,51009063) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(NCET-08- 180) supported by the Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University from the Ministry of Education of China
文摘Assisted by framework of multimedia total exposure model for hazard waste sites(CalTOX),potential influences of scenario-uncertainty on multimedia health risk assessment(MHRA) and decision-making were quantitatively analyzed in a primary extent under the Chinese scenario case by deliberately varying the two key scenario-elements,namely conceptual exposure pathways combination and aim receptor cohorts choice.Results show that the independent change of one exposure pathway or receptor cohort could lead variation of MHRA results in the range of 3.6×10-6-1.4×10-5 or 6.7×10-6-2.3×10-5.And randomly simultaneous change of those two elements could lead variation of MHRA results at the range of 7.7×10-8-2.3×10-5.On the basis of the corresponding sensitivity analysis,pathways which made a valid contribution to the final modeling risk value occupied only 16.7% of all considered pathways.Afterwards,comparative analysis between influence of parameter-uncertainty and influence of scenario-uncertainty was made.In consideration of interrelationship among all types of uncertainties and financial reasonability during MHRA procedures,the integrated method how to optimize the entire procedures of MHRA was presented innovatively based on sensitivity analysis,scenario-discussion and nest Monte Carlo simulation or fuzzy mathematics.
文摘Mine safety have top-five disasters,which including the water,gas,fire,dust and geological dynamic disaster.The coal mine water disaster is one of the important factors which restricted the development of China’s coal production.It is showed by statistics that 60%of mine accidents are affected by groundwater,which not only result in the production losses.
文摘In order to make the relevant risk departments and the agricultural producers have a clearer understanding of maize cold damage, the data of daily average temperature of 83 meteorological stations in Heilongjiang Province from 1986 to 2015, and the risk assessment model of maize cold damage in northeast China were used, and the risk index values of maize cold damage in Heilongjiang Province from 1986 to 2015 were calculated. And according to the risk index values, Heilongjiang Province was divided into five risk areas. The results showed that the high risk areas and the sub-high risk areas of maize cold damage in Heilongjiang Province in recent 30 years were in Daqing and Suihua cities, the medium risk areas were located in the center of the Songnen Plain and other regions, the sub-low risk areas were located in the Songnen Plain, and most of the rest were the low risk areas.
基金This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2022YFC3003101)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(WK2320000050)the Science and Technology Program of State Grid Anhui Electric Power Co.,Ltd.(521205220001).
文摘Forest fire accidents caused by distribution line faults occur frequently,resulting in heavy impacts on people’s safety and social and economic development.Currently,there are few risk assessments for forest fires induced by over-head distribution lines,and existing assessment methods may have difficulties in data acquisition.On this basis,a novel as-sessment framework based on an analytic hierarchy process,a Bayesian network and a Fussel-Vesely importance metric is proposed in this paper.The framework combines field research and historical operation and maintenance data to assess the regional-scale risk of forest fires induced by overhead distribution lines to derive the probability of forest fires and to identify high-risk lines and key hazard events in the assessment region.Finally,taking the southern Anhui region as an ex-ample,the annual fire probability of forest fires induced by overhead distribution lines in the southern Anhui region is 5.88%,and rectification measures are proposed.This study provides management with a complete assessment framework that optimizes the difficulty of data collection and allows for additional targeted corrective measures to be proposed for the entire region and route on the basis of the assessment results.
基金Projects(51578222,51178172) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProjects(17Z017,17G025) supported by the Humanities and Social Science Project of Hubei Provincial Education Department,China+1 种基金Project(1718WT15) supported by the Hubei College Student Affairs Research Institute,ChinaProjects(2016J1410,2016J1411) supported by the Graduate Innovative Education Program of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,China
文摘Five trace elements including Zn, Cu, Cd, Cr and As were investigated in surface water from ten typical sampling sites in Honghu Lake. The consequence indicated that all of the detected trace element levels were within the allowed standard of China’s safe water guideline. The hazard quotients （HQ） and the hazard index （HI） value levels of all the five heavy metals in all sampling sites did not exceed the acceptable risk limits of non-carcinogenic value through the selected assessment method. Pearson’s correlation analysis and principal component analysis （PCA） indicated that Zn and Cu mainly originated from the natural alluviation and non-point agricultural sources, whereas Cr and As were mainly derived from industrial effluents. Moreover, Cd mainly originated from both non-point agricultural and industrial pollution sources. In addition, cluster analysis （CA） implied that cluster 1 （including S3, S5, S6 and S10） was considered the set of high pollution sites and cluster 2 （including S4 and S9） was identified as the set of moderate pollution sites.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42074224)Key Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(ZDRE-KT-2021-3)Pandeng Program of National Space Science Center,Chinese Academy of Sciences。
文摘Interplanetary meteoroids and space debris can impact satellites orbiting the Earth or spacecraft traveling to the Moon.Targeting China Space Station(CSS),7 satellites selected from the constellation of Beidou Navigation Satellite System Phase III(BDS-3),and 3 spacecraft orbiting the Moon,we have adopted in the paper the Meteoroid Engineering Model 3,Divine-Staubach meteoroid environment model,and Jenniskens-McBride meteoroid steam model to analyze the meteoroid environment with the mass range of 10–6~10 g.Orbital Debris Engineering Model 3.1 space debris model is used to analyze the orbital debris environment faced by these satellites.The flux of space debris with a size larger than 100μm is compared with that of the meteoroids.The results show that the space debris flux encountered by China Space Station is much higher than that of the meteoroids with sizes in the above range.And quite the opposite,the meteoroids flux impacting the 7 satellites from the BDS-3 is higher.Upon adopting the double-layer Whipple protection measure,the catastrophic collision flux of these satellites encountering meteoroids is about 10–6 times of that without protection,or even less,implying that the Whipple protection effectively guarantees the safety of the satellites in orbit.Besides,it is also found that the flux of the high-density meteoroid population encountered by each satellite is greater than that of the low-density population,whereas the impact velocity is lower for each satellite.These results can aid the orbit selection and the protection design for satellites and spacecraft.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation(71673042)the National Natural Science Foundation(71640017)+1 种基金the Special Research Fund for Doctoral Programs in Colleges and Universities(20132325110019)the Natural Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Province(G201413)
文摘Based on the investigation and research on 75 dairy farms in Heilongjiang Province, evaluation index system of dairy farm market risk was set up, and dairy farm market risks were divided into pairing risk, price risk, production risk, contract risk and policy risk, five aspects of a total of 12 assessment indicators. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to evaluate the market risk. The evaluation results showed that the market risk of dairy farms in Heilongjiang Province was at low risk; however, the policy risk was high. Finally, according to the results of the assessment, the suggestions was made as the followings： the government should expand the scope of policy insurance for dairy farming, vigorously promote the development of cooperative organizations and intermediary organizations in dairy farms by purchasing services through government, increase their functional roles and establish strict supervision mechanisms, including the establishment of official advice hotline and consultation channel online and improving third-party testing mechanism; government and the department of management industry would improve their abilities of management and do a good job of training and guiding.
文摘Recently,I attended a conference organised by the European Food Safety Authority in the beautiful and prosperous Italian city of Parma.The overall topic of the conference was risk assessment,and the program included a section on aspects of environmental risk assessment.In various areas,including the evalution of the effects of pesticide applications,invasive organisms or genetically modified plants(Arpaia et al.,2014)preparing an environmental risk assessment is an obviously relevant exercise.
文摘The no-observed-effect level (NOEL) in a study of carcinogenicity for compounds that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic represents the limit of detection in that bioassay, rather than an estimate of a possible threshold. Therefore, for those genotoxic and carcinogenic contaminants (e.g. acrylamides, PAHs, etc.) in foods it is not possible to develop health-based guidance values (e.g. ADI or PTWI) using the traditional NOEL and safety/uncertainty factors.
基金Project(42207445)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(kq2404013)supported by the Changsha Municipal Key Special Projects,China+1 种基金Project(02013015001)supported by the Hunan Provincial Department of Agriculture,ChinaProject(ZR2021QD017)supported by the Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation,China。
文摘The Western Dongting Lake area,a biodiversity hotspot under traditional farming,has long suffered heavy metal pollution.In this study,the concentrations of As,Cd,Cr,Hg,and Pb in agricultural soils were determined and ecological risks were evaluated using both the hazard quotient(HQ)model and the probabilistic ecological risk assessment(PERA)model.The results showed that HQ suggested slight or negligible risks,whereas PERA indicated consistently high and unacceptable risks.This discrepancy arose because HQ criteria are derived from human health thresholds and provide only deterministic estimates,whereas PERA incorporates species-specific predicted no-effect concentration(P NEC),environmental variability,and uncertainty,thereby providing more precise and site-specific risk assessments and assigning probabilities.By applying a tiered PERA model,our study highlights its novelty and superiority in ecological risk characterization,providing critical guidance for soil management and ecological protection in contaminated farmlands.
基金Projects(51039001,51009063) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(SX2010-026) supported by State Council Three Gorges Project Construction Committee Executive Office,China+1 种基金Project(2012BS046) supported by Henan University of Technology,ChinaProject(BYHGLC-2010-02) supported by the Guangzhou Water Authority,China
文摘An integrated evaluation system under randomness and fuzziness was developed in this work to systematically assess the risk of groundwater contamination in a little town, Central China. In this system, randomness of the parameters and the fuzziness of the risk were considered simultaneously, and the exceeding standard probability of contamination and human health risk due to the contamination were integrated. The contamination risk was defined as a combination of "vulnerability" and "hazard". To calculate the value of "vulnerability", pollutant concentration was simulated by MODFLOW with random input variables and a new modified health risk assessment(MRA) model was established to analyze the level of "hazard". The limit concentration based on environmental-guideline and health risk due to manganese were systematically examined to obtain the general risk levels through a fuzzy rule base. The "vulnerability" and "hazard" were divided into five categories of "high", "medium-high", "medium", "low-medium" and "low", respectively. Then, "vulnerability" and "hazard" were firstly combined by integrated evaluation. Compared with the other two scenarios under deterministic methods, the risk obtained in the proposed system is higher. This research illustrated that ignoring of uncertainties in evaluation process might underestimate the risk level.
基金Project(2013CB036004) supported by National Basic Research Program(973)of ChinaProject(51378510) supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Tunnel water inrush is one of the common geological disasters in the underground engineering construction.In order to effectively evaluate and control the occurrence of water inrush,the risk assessment model of tunnel water inrush was proposed based on improved attribute mathematical theory.The trigonometric functions were adopted to optimize the attribute mathematical theory,avoiding the influence of mutation points and linear variation zones in traditional linear measurement functions on the accuracy of the model.Based on comprehensive analysis of various factors,five parameters were selected as the evaluation indicators for the model,including tunnel head pressure,permeability coefficient of surrounding rock,crushing degree of surrounding rock,relative angle of joint plane and tunnel section size,under the principle of dimension rationality,independence,directness and quantification.The indicator classifications were determined.The links among measured data were analyzed in detail,and the objective weight of each indicator was determined by using similar weight method.Thereby the tunnel water inrush risk assessment model is established and applied in four target segments of two different tunnels in engineering.The evaluation results and the actual excavation data agree well,which indicates that the model is of high credibility and feasibility.
基金supported by the High-tech Ship Projects of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China(CBG2N21-4-1).
文摘To address the problem of sea ice collisions threatening offshore drilling operations in polar regions,this paper proposes a Bayesian network-based collision risk assessment model for drillships.The model integrates large ice floe/iceberg conditions,natural environmental factors,and geometric factors derived from the ship’s shape,size,distance,and azimuth.Using iceberg routes,scenario simulations are conducted to evaluate collision probabilities and provide time-dependent risk values.Results demonstrate that the method yields reasonable and consistent assessments of drillship-ice interactions.The proposed method enables automatic collision risk assessment and can be applied to unattended management systems to enhance the safety of polar drilling operations.
文摘39 soil samples surrounding a lead-zinc mining area in Guangxi were collected,and the contents of Pb,Hg,Cd,Cr,As,Cu,Zn,and Ni were determined to investigate the pollution characteristics and sources of heavy metals.ArcGIS inverse distance weight difference method was used to analyze the characteristics of pollution distribution,and single-factor pollution index,Nemerow comprehensive pollution index,ground accumulation index,and potential ecological risk index were selected to evaluate the characteristics of heavy metal pollution.Based on correlation analysis,the absolute principal component-multiple linear regression(APCS-MLR)and positive definite matrix factorization(PMF)models were used to analyze the sources of soil heavy metals.The results showed that the average concentrations of all eight heavy metals exceeded both national and Guangxi soil background values.Hg,Cd,and Zn exhibited high variation(greater than 0.5),indicating significant external disturbances,and their spatial distribution was closely related to mining activity locations.The single-factor pollution index evaluation indicated varying degrees of pollution risk for Cd,Zn,and As,with Cd and Zn being the most severe pollutants,as 69.23%and 30.77%of the samples fell into the moderate pollution or higher category.The geoaccumulation index analysis ranked the mean pollution levels of the eight elements as follows:Zn>Cd>Ni>Pb>Cu>Cr>Hg>As,with Cd and Zn showing the most severe contamination,and 51.28%of the samples exhibiting moderate or higher pollution levels.The Nemerow comprehensive pollution index evaluation showed that 74.35%of soil samples were classified as moderate to heavy pollution.The potential ecological risk index assessment indicated significant ecological risks posed by Cd and Zn,with 82.05%and 5.12%of the samples classified as causing strong to extreme ecological risks,respectively.The source apportionment analysis revealed minor differences between the two models.The APCS-MLR model identified three pollution sources and their contribution rates:anthropogenic mining sources(31.13%),parent material sources(40.38%),and unidentified sources(28.49%).The PMF model identified three pollution sources with contribution rates of anthropogenic mining sources(26.10%),parent material sources(46.96%),and a combined traffic and agricultural source(26.61%).Pb,Hg,Cd,and Zn mainly originated from mining activities;Cr,As,and Ni were primarily derived from the parent material,while Cu was predominantly attributed to traffic and agricultural sources.These findings provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of heavy metal pollution in mining areas.
基金This project was supported by Fubangs Science & Technology Company Ltd.
文摘In this paper, decision mechanism of credit-risk for banks is studied when the loan interest rate is fixed with asymmetry information in credit market. We give out the designs of rationing and non-rationing on credit risky decision mechanism when collateral value provided by an entrepreneur is not less than the minimum demands of the bank. It shows that under the action of the mechanism, banks could efficiently identify the risk size of the project. Finally, the condition of the project investigation of bank is given over again.
