A Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC)analysis of a power is important and useful in clinical trials.A Classical Conditional Power(CCP)is a probability of a classical rejection region given values of true treatment ...A Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC)analysis of a power is important and useful in clinical trials.A Classical Conditional Power(CCP)is a probability of a classical rejection region given values of true treatment effect and interim result.For hypotheses and reversed hypotheses under normal models,we obtain analytical expressions of the ROC curves of the CCP,find optimal ROC curves of the CCP,investigate the superiority of the ROC curves of the CCP,calculate critical values of the False Positive Rate(FPR),True Positive Rate(TPR),and cutoff of the optimal CCP,and give go/no go decisions at the interim of the optimal CCP.In addition,extensive numerical experiments are carried out to exemplify our theoretical results.Finally,a real data example is performed to illustrate the go/no go decisions of the optimal CCP.展开更多
本文使用中国家庭动态跟踪调查(CFPS)数据,基于代理工具测试模型(Proxy means testing,PMT)并结合ROC曲线方法(Receiver Operating Characteristics)研究低保的反贫困瞄准问题.结果显示:城市单个贫困指数以卫生间类型、电脑拥有情况来...本文使用中国家庭动态跟踪调查(CFPS)数据,基于代理工具测试模型(Proxy means testing,PMT)并结合ROC曲线方法(Receiver Operating Characteristics)研究低保的反贫困瞄准问题.结果显示:城市单个贫困指数以卫生间类型、电脑拥有情况来衡量较为有效,农村单个贫困指数则以户主年龄、冰箱拥有情况来衡量较为有效.更改贫困概率门槛值会影响公共预算转移支付贫困瞄准结果,对于一个较低的贫困概率门槛值,其对应的覆盖率(公共预算转移支付覆盖贫困人口)和漏损率(非贫困人口被纳入公共预算转移支付)都比较高.当政策制定者把对覆盖贫困人口和排除非贫困人口的目标赋予同等权重时,城乡贫困概率门槛值约为0.5左右.当贫困率较低且使用与贫困率相同的瞄准率时,基于PMT模型的贫困瞄准较差.在贫困率给定的条件下,随着受益比率(包含率)的增加,贫困瞄准的精确性在提高.使用全覆盖所需预算的百分比下降时,覆盖率和漏损率也都呈现下降态势,贫困率逐渐上升,预算中做覆盖之用的比例上升,而预算中漏损部分的比例下降.贫困线的变动会影响覆盖率、漏损率.展开更多
To improve the ability of detecting underwater targets under strong wideband interference environment,an efficient method of line spectrum extraction is proposed,which fully utilizes the feature of the target spectrum...To improve the ability of detecting underwater targets under strong wideband interference environment,an efficient method of line spectrum extraction is proposed,which fully utilizes the feature of the target spectrum that the high intense and stable line spectrum is superimposed on the wide continuous spectrum.This method modifies the traditional beam forming algorithm by calculating and fusing the beam forming results at multi-frequency band and multi-azimuth interval,showing an excellent way to extract the line spectrum when the interference and the target are not in the same azimuth interval simultaneously.Statistical efficiency of the estimated azimuth variance and corresponding power of the line spectrum band depends on the line spectra ratio(LSR)of the line spectrum.The change laws of the output signal to noise ratio(SNR)with the LSR,the input SNR,the integration time and the filtering bandwidth of different algorithms bring the selection principle of the critical LSR.As the basis,the detection gain of wideband energy integration and the narrowband line spectrum algorithm are theoretically analyzed.The simulation detection gain demonstrates a good match with the theoretical model.The application conditions of all methods are verified by the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and experimental data from Qiandao Lake.In fact,combining the two methods for target detection reduces the missed detection rate.The proposed post-processing method in2-dimension with the Kalman filter in the time dimension and the background equalization algorithm in the azimuth dimension makes use of the strong correlation between adjacent frames,could further remove background fluctuation and improve the display effect.展开更多
基金supported by the National Social Science Fund of China(Grand No.21XTJ001).
文摘A Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC)analysis of a power is important and useful in clinical trials.A Classical Conditional Power(CCP)is a probability of a classical rejection region given values of true treatment effect and interim result.For hypotheses and reversed hypotheses under normal models,we obtain analytical expressions of the ROC curves of the CCP,find optimal ROC curves of the CCP,investigate the superiority of the ROC curves of the CCP,calculate critical values of the False Positive Rate(FPR),True Positive Rate(TPR),and cutoff of the optimal CCP,and give go/no go decisions at the interim of the optimal CCP.In addition,extensive numerical experiments are carried out to exemplify our theoretical results.Finally,a real data example is performed to illustrate the go/no go decisions of the optimal CCP.
文摘本文使用中国家庭动态跟踪调查(CFPS)数据,基于代理工具测试模型(Proxy means testing,PMT)并结合ROC曲线方法(Receiver Operating Characteristics)研究低保的反贫困瞄准问题.结果显示:城市单个贫困指数以卫生间类型、电脑拥有情况来衡量较为有效,农村单个贫困指数则以户主年龄、冰箱拥有情况来衡量较为有效.更改贫困概率门槛值会影响公共预算转移支付贫困瞄准结果,对于一个较低的贫困概率门槛值,其对应的覆盖率(公共预算转移支付覆盖贫困人口)和漏损率(非贫困人口被纳入公共预算转移支付)都比较高.当政策制定者把对覆盖贫困人口和排除非贫困人口的目标赋予同等权重时,城乡贫困概率门槛值约为0.5左右.当贫困率较低且使用与贫困率相同的瞄准率时,基于PMT模型的贫困瞄准较差.在贫困率给定的条件下,随着受益比率(包含率)的增加,贫困瞄准的精确性在提高.使用全覆盖所需预算的百分比下降时,覆盖率和漏损率也都呈现下降态势,贫困率逐渐上升,预算中做覆盖之用的比例上升,而预算中漏损部分的比例下降.贫困线的变动会影响覆盖率、漏损率.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51875535)the Natural Science Foundation for Young Scientists of Shanxi Province(201701D221017,201901D211242)。
文摘To improve the ability of detecting underwater targets under strong wideband interference environment,an efficient method of line spectrum extraction is proposed,which fully utilizes the feature of the target spectrum that the high intense and stable line spectrum is superimposed on the wide continuous spectrum.This method modifies the traditional beam forming algorithm by calculating and fusing the beam forming results at multi-frequency band and multi-azimuth interval,showing an excellent way to extract the line spectrum when the interference and the target are not in the same azimuth interval simultaneously.Statistical efficiency of the estimated azimuth variance and corresponding power of the line spectrum band depends on the line spectra ratio(LSR)of the line spectrum.The change laws of the output signal to noise ratio(SNR)with the LSR,the input SNR,the integration time and the filtering bandwidth of different algorithms bring the selection principle of the critical LSR.As the basis,the detection gain of wideband energy integration and the narrowband line spectrum algorithm are theoretically analyzed.The simulation detection gain demonstrates a good match with the theoretical model.The application conditions of all methods are verified by the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and experimental data from Qiandao Lake.In fact,combining the two methods for target detection reduces the missed detection rate.The proposed post-processing method in2-dimension with the Kalman filter in the time dimension and the background equalization algorithm in the azimuth dimension makes use of the strong correlation between adjacent frames,could further remove background fluctuation and improve the display effect.
