In land warfare,trenches serve as vital defensive fortifications,offering protection to soldiers while engaging in combat.However,despite their protective function,soldiers often sustain injuries within these trenches...In land warfare,trenches serve as vital defensive fortifications,offering protection to soldiers while engaging in combat.However,despite their protective function,soldiers often sustain injuries within these trenches.The lack of corresponding blast data alongside empirical injury reports presents a significant knowledge gap,particularly concerning the blast pressures propagating within trench spaces following nearby explosions.This absence hinders the correlation between blast parameters,trench geometry,and reported injury cases,limiting our understanding of blast-related risks within trenches.This paper addresses the critical aspect of blast propagation within trench systems,essential for evaluating potential blast injury risks to individuals within these structures.Through advanced computational fluid dynamics(CFD)simulations,the study comprehensively investigates blast injury risks resulting from explosions near military trenches.Employing a sophisticated computational model,the research analyzes the dynamic blast effects within trenches,considering both geometrical parameters and blast characteristics influenced by explosive weight and scaled distance.The numerical simulations yield valuable insights into the impact of these parameters on blast injury risks,particularly focusing on eardrum rupture,lung injury,and traumatic brain injury levels within the trench.The findings elucidate distinct patterns of high-risk zones,highlighting unique characteristics of internal explosions due to confinement and venting dynamics along the trench.This study underscores the significance of detailed numerical modeling in assessing blast injury risks and provides a novel knowledge base for understanding risks associated with explosives detonating near military trenches.The insights gained contribute to enhancing safety measures in both military and civilian contexts exposed to blast events near trench structures.展开更多
The inference for the dependent competing risks model is studied and the dependent structure of failure causes is modeled by a Marshall-Olkin bivariate Rayleigh distribution. Under generalized progressive hybrid censo...The inference for the dependent competing risks model is studied and the dependent structure of failure causes is modeled by a Marshall-Olkin bivariate Rayleigh distribution. Under generalized progressive hybrid censoring(GPHC), maximum likelihood estimates are established and the confidence intervals are constructed based on the asymptotic theory. Bayesian estimates and the highest posterior density credible intervals are obtained by using Gibbs sampling. Simulation and a real life electrical appliances data set are used for practical illustration.展开更多
In 12th February 2008 UN launched IYPE,and some of the missions were;to demonstrate the great potential of Earth Sciences in the building of a safer, wealthier and safer society,as the Earth and Life are origins of di...In 12th February 2008 UN launched IYPE,and some of the missions were;to demonstrate the great potential of Earth Sciences in the building of a safer, wealthier and safer society,as the Earth and Life are origins of diversity.Currently we experience human activities posing impacts such as climate variability and huge diseases burden due to exploring of Geo resources.The paper describes potential health risks such as ionizing radiation,Geo hazards,chemicals展开更多
Hazards and risks assessment of dangerous geocryological processes is an actual problem in connection with climate change.Permafrost is widespread in Russia,Canada,the USA(Alaska),China,Mongolia and in mountain region...Hazards and risks assessment of dangerous geocryological processes is an actual problem in connection with climate change.Permafrost is widespread in Russia,Canada,the USA(Alaska),China,Mongolia and in mountain regions.Currently there are many papers concerning permafrost-related hazards,but the conceptual and basic techniques are not available. Different approaches for solving this problem are considered in the paper.The generally accessible techniques of geocryological processes quantitative risk assessment are not available.The problem lies展开更多
Hazards and risks assessment of dangerous geocryological processes is actual problem in connection with climate change.Permafrost is widespread in Russia,Canada,the USA(Alaska), China,Mongolia and in mountain regions....Hazards and risks assessment of dangerous geocryological processes is actual problem in connection with climate change.Permafrost is widespread in Russia,Canada,the USA(Alaska), China,Mongolia and in mountain regions.Currently there are many papers concerning permafrost-related hazards,but the conceptual and based techniques are not available.Different approaches for solving this problem are considered in the paper.The generally accessible techniques of geocryological processes quantitative risk assessment are not available.The problem lies in uncertainty appearing from展开更多
Mount Bambouto is a polygenic stratovolcano of the Cameroon Volcanic Line,built between 21 Ma and 4.5 Ma(Nkouathio et al.,2008).It is situated at about 200 km NE of mount Cameroon,at 09°55′and 10°15′East a...Mount Bambouto is a polygenic stratovolcano of the Cameroon Volcanic Line,built between 21 Ma and 4.5 Ma(Nkouathio et al.,2008).It is situated at about 200 km NE of mount Cameroon,at 09°55′and 10°15′East and,05°25′and 05°50′North.This volcano covers an area of 500 Km^2 and culminates at 2740 m at Meletan hill and bears a collapsed elliptical caldera at the summit(13×8 km).Mount展开更多
Middle censoring is an important censoring scheme,in which the actual failure data of an observation becomes unobservable if it falls into a random interval. This paper considers the statistical analysis of the depend...Middle censoring is an important censoring scheme,in which the actual failure data of an observation becomes unobservable if it falls into a random interval. This paper considers the statistical analysis of the dependent competing risks model by using the Marshall-Olkin bivariate Weibull(MOBW) distribution.The maximum likelihood estimations(MLEs), midpoint approximation(MPA) estimations and approximate confidence intervals(ACIs) of the unknown parameters are obtained. In addition, the Bayes approach is also considered based on the Gamma-Dirichlet prior of the scale parameters, with the given shape parameter.The acceptance-rejection sampling method is used to obtain the Bayes estimations and construct credible intervals(CIs). Finally,two numerical examples are used to show the performance of the proposed methods.展开更多
Inference are considered for the dependence competing risks model by using the Marshal-Olkin bivariate exponential distribution. Under generalized progressively hybrid censoring with partially observed failure causes,...Inference are considered for the dependence competing risks model by using the Marshal-Olkin bivariate exponential distribution. Under generalized progressively hybrid censoring with partially observed failure causes, the maximum likelihood estimators are established, and the approximate confidence intervals are also constructed via the observed Fisher information matrix.Moreover, Bayes estimates and highest probability density credible intervals are presented and the importance sampling technique is used to compute corresponding results. Finally, the numerical analysis is proposed for illustration.展开更多
This paper proposes a health evaluation method for degrading systems subject to competing risks of dependent soft and hard failures. To characterize the time-varying degradation rate, the degradation process is determ...This paper proposes a health evaluation method for degrading systems subject to competing risks of dependent soft and hard failures. To characterize the time-varying degradation rate, the degradation process is determined by a non-stationary Gamma process and the soft failure is encountered when it exceeds a predefined critical level. For the hard failure, a Cox’s proportional hazard model is applied to describe the hazard rate of the time to system failure. The dependent relationship is modeled by incorporating the degradation process as a time-varying covariate into the Cox’s proportional hazard model. To facilitate the health characteristics evaluation, a discretization technique is applied both to the degradation process and the monitoring time.All health characteristics can be obtained in the explicit form using the transition probability matrix, which is computationally attractive for practical applications. Finally, a numerical analysis is carried out to show the effectiveness and the performance of the proposed health evaluation method.展开更多
Hazards refer to situations with harmful effects on people’s lives,property,health and the environment. Examples include:fire outbreaks,hailstorms,smoke and haze,volcanic eruptions,earthquakes,landslides, drought,flo...Hazards refer to situations with harmful effects on people’s lives,property,health and the environment. Examples include:fire outbreaks,hailstorms,smoke and haze,volcanic eruptions,earthquakes,landslides, drought,floods,dust storm,global warming.Their remedies are:(1)sensitization of masses to take precaution;(2)resettlement of people based around hazardous areas;(3)instructing workers about the展开更多
Landslide is one of the common natural hazards occurring in Sri Lanka.This is more signifycant in central highlands of the country.Some natural conditions of central highlands like geology and geomorphological feature...Landslide is one of the common natural hazards occurring in Sri Lanka.This is more signifycant in central highlands of the country.Some natural conditions of central highlands like geology and geomorphological features,steep slopes,getting high intensity of rainfall,etc.are direct influences on occurrence of high number of landslides compared to other regions of Sri Lanka.However,some human activities like deforestation,chena cultivation,improper constructions in hill slopes,etc.also contribute to accelerating landslide process in the study area. According to statistic data of past landslides of this region,those events destroyed valuable agricultural lands,houses and properties,etc.as well as lost展开更多
In this paper, an empirical research on the system risks of the Shenzhen Stock Market using capital asset pricing model is conducted. The typical composition stocks on Shenzhen Stock Market in 1998 are taken as sample...In this paper, an empirical research on the system risks of the Shenzhen Stock Market using capital asset pricing model is conducted. The typical composition stocks on Shenzhen Stock Market in 1998 are taken as samples. Some quantitative analysis results are got, which can measure the risk of stock market.展开更多
Risk management often plays an important role in decision making un-der uncertainty.In quantitative risk management,assessing and optimizing risk metrics requires eficient computing techniques and reliable theoretical...Risk management often plays an important role in decision making un-der uncertainty.In quantitative risk management,assessing and optimizing risk metrics requires eficient computing techniques and reliable theoretical guarantees.In this pa-per,we introduce several topics on quantitative risk management and review some of the recent studies and advancements on the topics.We consider several risk metrics and study decision models that involve the metrics,with a main focus on the related com-puting techniques and theoretical properties.We show that stochastic optimization,as a powerful tool,can be leveraged to effectively address these problems.展开更多
With the increase of international trade activities and the gradual melting of the polar ice cap,the importance of the Arctic route for marine transportation has been emphasized.Prediction of the polar navigation wind...With the increase of international trade activities and the gradual melting of the polar ice cap,the importance of the Arctic route for marine transportation has been emphasized.Prediction of the polar navigation window period is crucial for navigating in the Arctic route,which is of great significance to the selection of the route and the optimization of navigation.This paper introduces the establishment of a risk index system,determination of risk index weight,establishment of a risk evaluation model,and prediction algorithm for the window period.In addition,data sources of both environmental factors and ship factors are introducted,and their shortcomings are analyzed,followed by introduction of various methods involved in window prediction and analysis of their advantages and disadvantages.The quantitative risk evaluation and window period algorithm can provide a reference for the research of polar navigation window period prediction.展开更多
Hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC),which is essentially primary liver cancer,is closely related to CD8^(+)T cell immune infiltration and immune suppression.We constructed a CD8^(+)T cells related risk score model to predic...Hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC),which is essentially primary liver cancer,is closely related to CD8^(+)T cell immune infiltration and immune suppression.We constructed a CD8^(+)T cells related risk score model to predict the prognosis of HCC patients and provided therapeutic guidance based on the risk score.Using integrated bulk RNA sequencing(RNA-seq)and single-cell RNA sequencing(scRNA-seq)datasets,we identified stable CD8^(+)T cell signatures.Based on these signatures,a 3-gene risk score model,comprised of KLRB1,RGS 2,and TNFRSF1B was constructed.The risk score model was well validated through an independent external validation cohort.We divided patients into high-risk and low-risk groups according to the risk score and compared the differences in immune microenvironment between these two groups.Compared with low-risk patients,high-risk patients have higher M2-type macrophage content(P<0.0001)and lower CD8^(+)T cells infiltration(P<0.0001).High-risk patients predict worse response to immunotherapy treatment than low-risk patients(P<0.01).Drug sensitivity analysis shows that PI3K-β inhibitor AZD6482 and TGFβRII inhibitor SB505124 may be suitable therapies for high-risk patients,while the IGF-1R inhibitor BMS-754807 or the novel pyrimidine-based anti-tumor metabolic drug Gemcitabine could be potential therapeutic choices for low-risk patients.Moreover,expression of these 3-gene model was verified by immunohistochemistry.In summary,the establishment and validation of a CD8^(+)T cell-derived risk model can more accurately predict the prognosis of HCC patients and guide the construction of personalized treatment plans.展开更多
The pressure and temperature increase resulting from the impact of different threats onto target materials is analyzed with a unified laboratory-scale setup.This allows deriving qualitative information on the occurrin...The pressure and temperature increase resulting from the impact of different threats onto target materials is analyzed with a unified laboratory-scale setup.This allows deriving qualitative information on the occurring phenomenology as well as quantitative statements about the relative effects sizes as a function of target material and threat.The considered target materials are steel,aluminum,and magnesium.As threats,kinetic energy penetrator,explosively formed projectile,and shaped charge jet are used.For the investigated combinations,the measured overpressures vary by a factor of up to 5 for a variation of the material,by a factor of up to 7 for a variation of the threat,and by a factor larger than 15for a simultaneous variation of both.The obtained results as well as the experimental approach are relevant for the basic understanding of impact effects and risks due to material reactivity.The paper combines two main aims.Firstly,to provide a summary of own prior work in a coherent journal article and,secondly,to review and discuss these earlier results with a new perspective.展开更多
The electricity-hydrogen integrated energy system(EH-IES)enables synergistic operation of electricity,heat,and hydrogen subsystems,supporting renewable energy integration and efficient multi-energy utilization in futu...The electricity-hydrogen integrated energy system(EH-IES)enables synergistic operation of electricity,heat,and hydrogen subsystems,supporting renewable energy integration and efficient multi-energy utilization in future low carbon societies.However,uncertainties from renewable energy and load variability threaten system safety and economy.Conventional chance-constrained programming(CCP)ensures reliable operation by limiting risk.However,increasing source-load uncertainties that can render CCP models infeasible and exacerbate operational risks.To address this,this paper proposes a risk-adjustable chance-constrained goal programming(RACCGP)model,integrating CCP and goal programming to balance risk and cost based on system risk assessment.An intelligent nonlinear goal programming method based on the state transition algorithm(STA)is developed,along with an improved discretized step transformation,to handle model nonlinearity and enhance computational efficiency.Experimental results show that the proposed model reduces costs while controlling risk compared to traditional CCP,and the solution method outperforms average sample sampling in efficiency and solution quality.展开更多
In this paper,we consider the price of catastrophe options with credit risk in a regime-switching model.We assume that the macroeconomic states are described by a continuous-time Markov chain with a finite state space...In this paper,we consider the price of catastrophe options with credit risk in a regime-switching model.We assume that the macroeconomic states are described by a continuous-time Markov chain with a finite state space.By using the measure change technique,we derive the price expressions of catastrophe put options.Moreover,we conduct some numerical analysis to demonstrate how the parameters of the model affect the price of the catastrophe put option.展开更多
Trade credit,as an effective tool for integrating and coordinating material,information,and financial flows in supply chain management,is becoming increasingly widespread.We explore how a manufacturer can design optim...Trade credit,as an effective tool for integrating and coordinating material,information,and financial flows in supply chain management,is becoming increasingly widespread.We explore how a manufacturer can design optimal trade credit contracts when a risk-averse retailer hides its sales cost information(adverse selection)and selling effort level(moral hazard).We develop incentive models for a risk-averse supply chain when adverse selection and moral hazard coexist,which are then compared with the results under single information asymmetry(moral hazard).Moreover,we analyze the effects of private information and risk-aversion coefficient on contract parameters,selling effort level and the profit or utility of the supply chain.The study shows that when the degree of retailer’s risk aversion is within a certain range,reasonable trade credit contracts designed by the manufacturer can effectively induce the retailer to report its real sales cost and encourage it to exert appropriate effort.Furthermore,we find that the optimal trade credit period,optimal transfer payment,and retailer’s optimal sales effort level under dual information asymmetry are less than those under single information asymmetry.Numerical analysis are conducted to demonstrate the effects of the parameters on decisions and profits.展开更多
Unlike the traditional decentralized channel,the drop-shipping channel entails a retailer relaying consumers’orders to the manufacturer,which proceeds to stock the orders and directly ship them to the consumers.This ...Unlike the traditional decentralized channel,the drop-shipping channel entails a retailer relaying consumers’orders to the manufacturer,which proceeds to stock the orders and directly ship them to the consumers.This study explores supply chain coordination and product quality in drop-shipping and traditional channels.Specifically,we analyze the performance of both channels under wholesale price and revenue-sharing contracts.Our study yields several key findings.First,the revenue-sharing contract can coordinate both traditional and drop-shipping channels,effectively increasing supply chain performance.Second,given the channel structure,the retailer prefers the wholesale price contract,whereas the manufacturer prefers the revenue-sharing contract.Third,product quality is higher in the drop-shipping channel when demand uncertainty is high.Finally,the implementation of the revenue-sharing contract increases product quality in the traditional channel,whereas it keeps product quality unchanged in the drop-shipping channel.展开更多
文摘In land warfare,trenches serve as vital defensive fortifications,offering protection to soldiers while engaging in combat.However,despite their protective function,soldiers often sustain injuries within these trenches.The lack of corresponding blast data alongside empirical injury reports presents a significant knowledge gap,particularly concerning the blast pressures propagating within trench spaces following nearby explosions.This absence hinders the correlation between blast parameters,trench geometry,and reported injury cases,limiting our understanding of blast-related risks within trenches.This paper addresses the critical aspect of blast propagation within trench systems,essential for evaluating potential blast injury risks to individuals within these structures.Through advanced computational fluid dynamics(CFD)simulations,the study comprehensively investigates blast injury risks resulting from explosions near military trenches.Employing a sophisticated computational model,the research analyzes the dynamic blast effects within trenches,considering both geometrical parameters and blast characteristics influenced by explosive weight and scaled distance.The numerical simulations yield valuable insights into the impact of these parameters on blast injury risks,particularly focusing on eardrum rupture,lung injury,and traumatic brain injury levels within the trench.The findings elucidate distinct patterns of high-risk zones,highlighting unique characteristics of internal explosions due to confinement and venting dynamics along the trench.This study underscores the significance of detailed numerical modeling in assessing blast injury risks and provides a novel knowledge base for understanding risks associated with explosives detonating near military trenches.The insights gained contribute to enhancing safety measures in both military and civilian contexts exposed to blast events near trench structures.
基金supported by the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2019M650260)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(11501433)。
文摘The inference for the dependent competing risks model is studied and the dependent structure of failure causes is modeled by a Marshall-Olkin bivariate Rayleigh distribution. Under generalized progressive hybrid censoring(GPHC), maximum likelihood estimates are established and the confidence intervals are constructed based on the asymptotic theory. Bayesian estimates and the highest posterior density credible intervals are obtained by using Gibbs sampling. Simulation and a real life electrical appliances data set are used for practical illustration.
文摘In 12th February 2008 UN launched IYPE,and some of the missions were;to demonstrate the great potential of Earth Sciences in the building of a safer, wealthier and safer society,as the Earth and Life are origins of diversity.Currently we experience human activities posing impacts such as climate variability and huge diseases burden due to exploring of Geo resources.The paper describes potential health risks such as ionizing radiation,Geo hazards,chemicals
文摘Hazards and risks assessment of dangerous geocryological processes is an actual problem in connection with climate change.Permafrost is widespread in Russia,Canada,the USA(Alaska),China,Mongolia and in mountain regions.Currently there are many papers concerning permafrost-related hazards,but the conceptual and basic techniques are not available. Different approaches for solving this problem are considered in the paper.The generally accessible techniques of geocryological processes quantitative risk assessment are not available.The problem lies
文摘Hazards and risks assessment of dangerous geocryological processes is actual problem in connection with climate change.Permafrost is widespread in Russia,Canada,the USA(Alaska), China,Mongolia and in mountain regions.Currently there are many papers concerning permafrost-related hazards,but the conceptual and based techniques are not available.Different approaches for solving this problem are considered in the paper.The generally accessible techniques of geocryological processes quantitative risk assessment are not available.The problem lies in uncertainty appearing from
文摘Mount Bambouto is a polygenic stratovolcano of the Cameroon Volcanic Line,built between 21 Ma and 4.5 Ma(Nkouathio et al.,2008).It is situated at about 200 km NE of mount Cameroon,at 09°55′and 10°15′East and,05°25′and 05°50′North.This volcano covers an area of 500 Km^2 and culminates at 2740 m at Meletan hill and bears a collapsed elliptical caldera at the summit(13×8 km).Mount
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71571144 71401134)the Program of International Cooperation and Exchanges in Science and Technology Funded by Shaanxi Province(2016KW-033)
文摘Middle censoring is an important censoring scheme,in which the actual failure data of an observation becomes unobservable if it falls into a random interval. This paper considers the statistical analysis of the dependent competing risks model by using the Marshall-Olkin bivariate Weibull(MOBW) distribution.The maximum likelihood estimations(MLEs), midpoint approximation(MPA) estimations and approximate confidence intervals(ACIs) of the unknown parameters are obtained. In addition, the Bayes approach is also considered based on the Gamma-Dirichlet prior of the scale parameters, with the given shape parameter.The acceptance-rejection sampling method is used to obtain the Bayes estimations and construct credible intervals(CIs). Finally,two numerical examples are used to show the performance of the proposed methods.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(11501433)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(JB180711)
文摘Inference are considered for the dependence competing risks model by using the Marshal-Olkin bivariate exponential distribution. Under generalized progressively hybrid censoring with partially observed failure causes, the maximum likelihood estimators are established, and the approximate confidence intervals are also constructed via the observed Fisher information matrix.Moreover, Bayes estimates and highest probability density credible intervals are presented and the importance sampling technique is used to compute corresponding results. Finally, the numerical analysis is proposed for illustration.
基金supported by the Aeronautical Science Foundation of China(20155553039)the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada(RGPIN 121384-11)
文摘This paper proposes a health evaluation method for degrading systems subject to competing risks of dependent soft and hard failures. To characterize the time-varying degradation rate, the degradation process is determined by a non-stationary Gamma process and the soft failure is encountered when it exceeds a predefined critical level. For the hard failure, a Cox’s proportional hazard model is applied to describe the hazard rate of the time to system failure. The dependent relationship is modeled by incorporating the degradation process as a time-varying covariate into the Cox’s proportional hazard model. To facilitate the health characteristics evaluation, a discretization technique is applied both to the degradation process and the monitoring time.All health characteristics can be obtained in the explicit form using the transition probability matrix, which is computationally attractive for practical applications. Finally, a numerical analysis is carried out to show the effectiveness and the performance of the proposed health evaluation method.
文摘Hazards refer to situations with harmful effects on people’s lives,property,health and the environment. Examples include:fire outbreaks,hailstorms,smoke and haze,volcanic eruptions,earthquakes,landslides, drought,floods,dust storm,global warming.Their remedies are:(1)sensitization of masses to take precaution;(2)resettlement of people based around hazardous areas;(3)instructing workers about the
文摘Landslide is one of the common natural hazards occurring in Sri Lanka.This is more signifycant in central highlands of the country.Some natural conditions of central highlands like geology and geomorphological features,steep slopes,getting high intensity of rainfall,etc.are direct influences on occurrence of high number of landslides compared to other regions of Sri Lanka.However,some human activities like deforestation,chena cultivation,improper constructions in hill slopes,etc.also contribute to accelerating landslide process in the study area. According to statistic data of past landslides of this region,those events destroyed valuable agricultural lands,houses and properties,etc.as well as lost
文摘In this paper, an empirical research on the system risks of the Shenzhen Stock Market using capital asset pricing model is conducted. The typical composition stocks on Shenzhen Stock Market in 1998 are taken as samples. Some quantitative analysis results are got, which can measure the risk of stock market.
文摘Risk management often plays an important role in decision making un-der uncertainty.In quantitative risk management,assessing and optimizing risk metrics requires eficient computing techniques and reliable theoretical guarantees.In this pa-per,we introduce several topics on quantitative risk management and review some of the recent studies and advancements on the topics.We consider several risk metrics and study decision models that involve the metrics,with a main focus on the related com-puting techniques and theoretical properties.We show that stochastic optimization,as a powerful tool,can be leveraged to effectively address these problems.
文摘With the increase of international trade activities and the gradual melting of the polar ice cap,the importance of the Arctic route for marine transportation has been emphasized.Prediction of the polar navigation window period is crucial for navigating in the Arctic route,which is of great significance to the selection of the route and the optimization of navigation.This paper introduces the establishment of a risk index system,determination of risk index weight,establishment of a risk evaluation model,and prediction algorithm for the window period.In addition,data sources of both environmental factors and ship factors are introducted,and their shortcomings are analyzed,followed by introduction of various methods involved in window prediction and analysis of their advantages and disadvantages.The quantitative risk evaluation and window period algorithm can provide a reference for the research of polar navigation window period prediction.
基金国家自然科学基金项目(No.81902513)山西省应用基础研究计划项目(No.202303021211114 and 202103021224228)山西省高等教育百亿工程“科技引导”专项(No.BYJL047)资助。
文摘Hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC),which is essentially primary liver cancer,is closely related to CD8^(+)T cell immune infiltration and immune suppression.We constructed a CD8^(+)T cells related risk score model to predict the prognosis of HCC patients and provided therapeutic guidance based on the risk score.Using integrated bulk RNA sequencing(RNA-seq)and single-cell RNA sequencing(scRNA-seq)datasets,we identified stable CD8^(+)T cell signatures.Based on these signatures,a 3-gene risk score model,comprised of KLRB1,RGS 2,and TNFRSF1B was constructed.The risk score model was well validated through an independent external validation cohort.We divided patients into high-risk and low-risk groups according to the risk score and compared the differences in immune microenvironment between these two groups.Compared with low-risk patients,high-risk patients have higher M2-type macrophage content(P<0.0001)and lower CD8^(+)T cells infiltration(P<0.0001).High-risk patients predict worse response to immunotherapy treatment than low-risk patients(P<0.01).Drug sensitivity analysis shows that PI3K-β inhibitor AZD6482 and TGFβRII inhibitor SB505124 may be suitable therapies for high-risk patients,while the IGF-1R inhibitor BMS-754807 or the novel pyrimidine-based anti-tumor metabolic drug Gemcitabine could be potential therapeutic choices for low-risk patients.Moreover,expression of these 3-gene model was verified by immunohistochemistry.In summary,the establishment and validation of a CD8^(+)T cell-derived risk model can more accurately predict the prognosis of HCC patients and guide the construction of personalized treatment plans.
文摘The pressure and temperature increase resulting from the impact of different threats onto target materials is analyzed with a unified laboratory-scale setup.This allows deriving qualitative information on the occurring phenomenology as well as quantitative statements about the relative effects sizes as a function of target material and threat.The considered target materials are steel,aluminum,and magnesium.As threats,kinetic energy penetrator,explosively formed projectile,and shaped charge jet are used.For the investigated combinations,the measured overpressures vary by a factor of up to 5 for a variation of the material,by a factor of up to 7 for a variation of the threat,and by a factor larger than 15for a simultaneous variation of both.The obtained results as well as the experimental approach are relevant for the basic understanding of impact effects and risks due to material reactivity.The paper combines two main aims.Firstly,to provide a summary of own prior work in a coherent journal article and,secondly,to review and discuss these earlier results with a new perspective.
基金Project(2022YFC2904502)supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of ChinaProject(62273357)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China。
文摘The electricity-hydrogen integrated energy system(EH-IES)enables synergistic operation of electricity,heat,and hydrogen subsystems,supporting renewable energy integration and efficient multi-energy utilization in future low carbon societies.However,uncertainties from renewable energy and load variability threaten system safety and economy.Conventional chance-constrained programming(CCP)ensures reliable operation by limiting risk.However,increasing source-load uncertainties that can render CCP models infeasible and exacerbate operational risks.To address this,this paper proposes a risk-adjustable chance-constrained goal programming(RACCGP)model,integrating CCP and goal programming to balance risk and cost based on system risk assessment.An intelligent nonlinear goal programming method based on the state transition algorithm(STA)is developed,along with an improved discretized step transformation,to handle model nonlinearity and enhance computational efficiency.Experimental results show that the proposed model reduces costs while controlling risk compared to traditional CCP,and the solution method outperforms average sample sampling in efficiency and solution quality.
基金supported by the Jiangsu University Philosophy and Social Science Research Project(Grant No.2019SJA1326).
文摘In this paper,we consider the price of catastrophe options with credit risk in a regime-switching model.We assume that the macroeconomic states are described by a continuous-time Markov chain with a finite state space.By using the measure change technique,we derive the price expressions of catastrophe put options.Moreover,we conduct some numerical analysis to demonstrate how the parameters of the model affect the price of the catastrophe put option.
基金supported by the Plan Project of Shanghai Philosophy and Social Science(2017BGL014)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71832001)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(2232020B-04,2232018H-07).
文摘Trade credit,as an effective tool for integrating and coordinating material,information,and financial flows in supply chain management,is becoming increasingly widespread.We explore how a manufacturer can design optimal trade credit contracts when a risk-averse retailer hides its sales cost information(adverse selection)and selling effort level(moral hazard).We develop incentive models for a risk-averse supply chain when adverse selection and moral hazard coexist,which are then compared with the results under single information asymmetry(moral hazard).Moreover,we analyze the effects of private information and risk-aversion coefficient on contract parameters,selling effort level and the profit or utility of the supply chain.The study shows that when the degree of retailer’s risk aversion is within a certain range,reasonable trade credit contracts designed by the manufacturer can effectively induce the retailer to report its real sales cost and encourage it to exert appropriate effort.Furthermore,we find that the optimal trade credit period,optimal transfer payment,and retailer’s optimal sales effort level under dual information asymmetry are less than those under single information asymmetry.Numerical analysis are conducted to demonstrate the effects of the parameters on decisions and profits.
基金supported by the Key Fund Project for Youth Innovation of USTC(WK2040000042).
文摘Unlike the traditional decentralized channel,the drop-shipping channel entails a retailer relaying consumers’orders to the manufacturer,which proceeds to stock the orders and directly ship them to the consumers.This study explores supply chain coordination and product quality in drop-shipping and traditional channels.Specifically,we analyze the performance of both channels under wholesale price and revenue-sharing contracts.Our study yields several key findings.First,the revenue-sharing contract can coordinate both traditional and drop-shipping channels,effectively increasing supply chain performance.Second,given the channel structure,the retailer prefers the wholesale price contract,whereas the manufacturer prefers the revenue-sharing contract.Third,product quality is higher in the drop-shipping channel when demand uncertainty is high.Finally,the implementation of the revenue-sharing contract increases product quality in the traditional channel,whereas it keeps product quality unchanged in the drop-shipping channel.
