Probabilistic safety assessment(PSA) is important in nuclear safety review and analysis. Because the design and physics of the fluoride salt-cooled high temperature reactor(FHR) differ greatly from the pressurized wat...Probabilistic safety assessment(PSA) is important in nuclear safety review and analysis. Because the design and physics of the fluoride salt-cooled high temperature reactor(FHR) differ greatly from the pressurized water reactor(PWR), the methods and steps of PSA in FHR should be studied. The high-temperature gascooled reactor(HTR-PM) and sodium-cooled fast reactors have built the PSA framework, and the framework to finish the PSA analysis. The FHR is compared with the PWR, HTR-PM and sodium-cooled fast reactors from the physics, design and safety. The PSA framework of FHR is discussed. In the FHR, the fuel and coolant combination provides large thermal margins to fuel damage(hundreds of degrees centigrade). The tristructuralisotropic(TRISO) as the fuel is independent in FHR core and its failure is limited for the core. The core damage in Level 1 PSA is of lower frequency. Levels 1 and 2 PSA are combined in the FHR PSA analysis. The initiating events analysis is the beginning, and the source term analysis and the release types are the target. Finally, Level3 PSA is done.展开更多
Direct Monte Carlo(MC) simulation is a powerful probabilistic safety assessment method for accounting dynamics of the system.But it is not efficient at simulating rare events.A biasing transition rate method based on ...Direct Monte Carlo(MC) simulation is a powerful probabilistic safety assessment method for accounting dynamics of the system.But it is not efficient at simulating rare events.A biasing transition rate method based on direct MC simulation is proposed to solve the problem in this paper.This method biases transition rates of the components by adding virtual components to them in series to increase the occurrence probability of the rare event,hence the decrease in the variance of MC estimator.Several cases are used to benchmark this method.The results show that the method is effective at modeling system failure and is more efficient at collecting evidence of rare events than the direct MC simulation.The performance is greatly improved by the biasing transition rate method.展开更多
Success criteria analysis(SCA) bridges the gap between deterministic and probabilistic approaches for risk assessment of complex systems. To develop a risk model,SCA evaluates systems behaviour in response to postulat...Success criteria analysis(SCA) bridges the gap between deterministic and probabilistic approaches for risk assessment of complex systems. To develop a risk model,SCA evaluates systems behaviour in response to postulated accidents using deterministic approach to provide required information for the probabilistic model. A systematic framework is proposed in this article for extracting the front line systems success criteria. In this regard, available approaches are critically reviewed and technical challenges are discussed. Application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated on a typical Westinghouse-type nuclear power plant. Steam generator tube rupture is selected as the postulated accident. The methodology is comprehensive and general; therefore, it can be implemented on the other types of plants and complex systems.展开更多
Autonomous aerial refueling(AAR)has demonstrated significant benefits to aviation by extending the aircraft range and endurance.It is of significance to assess system safety for autonomous aerial refueling.In this pap...Autonomous aerial refueling(AAR)has demonstrated significant benefits to aviation by extending the aircraft range and endurance.It is of significance to assess system safety for autonomous aerial refueling.In this paper,the reachability analysis method is adopted to assess system safety.Due to system uncertainties,the aerial refueling system can be considered as a stochastic system.Thus,probabilistic reachability is considered.Since there is a close relationship between reachability probability and collision probability,the collision probability of the AAR system is analyzed by using reachability analysis techniques.Then,the collision probability is accessed by using the Monte-Carlo experiment method.Finally,simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed safety assessment method.展开更多
基金Supported by Chinese Academy of Science Strategy Precursor Science and Technology Project(No.XDA0205050)
文摘Probabilistic safety assessment(PSA) is important in nuclear safety review and analysis. Because the design and physics of the fluoride salt-cooled high temperature reactor(FHR) differ greatly from the pressurized water reactor(PWR), the methods and steps of PSA in FHR should be studied. The high-temperature gascooled reactor(HTR-PM) and sodium-cooled fast reactors have built the PSA framework, and the framework to finish the PSA analysis. The FHR is compared with the PWR, HTR-PM and sodium-cooled fast reactors from the physics, design and safety. The PSA framework of FHR is discussed. In the FHR, the fuel and coolant combination provides large thermal margins to fuel damage(hundreds of degrees centigrade). The tristructuralisotropic(TRISO) as the fuel is independent in FHR core and its failure is limited for the core. The core damage in Level 1 PSA is of lower frequency. Levels 1 and 2 PSA are combined in the FHR PSA analysis. The initiating events analysis is the beginning, and the source term analysis and the release types are the target. Finally, Level3 PSA is done.
基金supported by the Special Projects of International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor(2015GB116000)the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.XDA03040000)+1 种基金the Informatizational Special Projects of Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.XXH12504-1-09)the Major/Innovative Program of Development Foundation of Hefei Center for Physical Science and Technology(No.2014FXCX004)
文摘Direct Monte Carlo(MC) simulation is a powerful probabilistic safety assessment method for accounting dynamics of the system.But it is not efficient at simulating rare events.A biasing transition rate method based on direct MC simulation is proposed to solve the problem in this paper.This method biases transition rates of the components by adding virtual components to them in series to increase the occurrence probability of the rare event,hence the decrease in the variance of MC estimator.Several cases are used to benchmark this method.The results show that the method is effective at modeling system failure and is more efficient at collecting evidence of rare events than the direct MC simulation.The performance is greatly improved by the biasing transition rate method.
文摘Success criteria analysis(SCA) bridges the gap between deterministic and probabilistic approaches for risk assessment of complex systems. To develop a risk model,SCA evaluates systems behaviour in response to postulated accidents using deterministic approach to provide required information for the probabilistic model. A systematic framework is proposed in this article for extracting the front line systems success criteria. In this regard, available approaches are critically reviewed and technical challenges are discussed. Application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated on a typical Westinghouse-type nuclear power plant. Steam generator tube rupture is selected as the postulated accident. The methodology is comprehensive and general; therefore, it can be implemented on the other types of plants and complex systems.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61933010).
文摘Autonomous aerial refueling(AAR)has demonstrated significant benefits to aviation by extending the aircraft range and endurance.It is of significance to assess system safety for autonomous aerial refueling.In this paper,the reachability analysis method is adopted to assess system safety.Due to system uncertainties,the aerial refueling system can be considered as a stochastic system.Thus,probabilistic reachability is considered.Since there is a close relationship between reachability probability and collision probability,the collision probability of the AAR system is analyzed by using reachability analysis techniques.Then,the collision probability is accessed by using the Monte-Carlo experiment method.Finally,simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed safety assessment method.
