In order to meet the demand of testability analysis and evaluation for complex equipment under a small sample test in the equipment life cycle, the hierarchical hybrid testability model- ing and evaluation method （HH...In order to meet the demand of testability analysis and evaluation for complex equipment under a small sample test in the equipment life cycle, the hierarchical hybrid testability model- ing and evaluation method （HHTME）, which combines the testabi- lity structure model （TSM） with the testability Bayesian networks model （TBNM）, is presented. Firstly, the testability network topo- logy of complex equipment is built by using the hierarchical hybrid testability modeling method. Secondly, the prior conditional prob- ability distribution between network nodes is determined through expert experience. Then the Bayesian method is used to update the conditional probability distribution, according to history test information, virtual simulation information and similar product in- formation. Finally, the learned hierarchical hybrid testability model （HHTM） is used to estimate the testability of equipment. Compared with the results of other modeling methods, the relative deviation of the HHTM is only 0.52%, and the evaluation result is the most accu rate.展开更多
The mechanical system with backlash is distinguished between a＂backlash mode＂and a＂contact mode＂.The inherent switching between the two operating modes makes the system a prime example of hybrid system.For elimina...The mechanical system with backlash is distinguished between a＂backlash mode＂and a＂contact mode＂.The inherent switching between the two operating modes makes the system a prime example of hybrid system.For eliminating the bad effect of backlash, a piecewise affine（PWA） model of the mechanical servo system with backlash is built.The optimal control of constrained PWA system is obtained by taking advantage of model predictive control（MPC） method, and the explicit solution of MPC in a look-up table form is figured out by combining the dynamic programming and multi-parametric quadratic programming, thereby establishing an explicit hybrid model predictive controller.Furthermore, a piecewise quadratic（PWQ） function for guaranteeing the stability of closed-loop control is found by formulating the search of PWQ function as a semi-definite programming problem.In the tracking experiments, it is demonstrated that the explicit hybrid model predictive controller has a good traction control effect on the mechanical system with backlash.The error meets the demands of real system.Further, compared to the direct on-line computation, the computation burden is reduced by the explicit solution, thereby being suitable for real-time control of system with short sampling time.展开更多
An accurate long-term energy demand forecasting is essential for energy planning and policy making. However, due to the immature energy data collecting and statistical methods, the available data are usually limited i...An accurate long-term energy demand forecasting is essential for energy planning and policy making. However, due to the immature energy data collecting and statistical methods, the available data are usually limited in many regions. In this paper, on the basis of comprehensive literature review, we proposed a hybrid model based on the long-range alternative energy planning (LEAP) model to improve the accuracy of energy demand forecasting in these regions. By taking Hunan province, China as a typical case, the proposed hybrid model was applied to estimating the possible future energy demand and energy-saving potentials in different sectors. The structure of LEAP model was estimated by Sankey energy flow, and Leslie matrix and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to predict the population, industrial structure and transportation turnover, respectively. Monte-Carlo method was employed to evaluate the uncertainty of forecasted results. The results showed that the hybrid model combined with scenario analysis provided a relatively accurate forecast for the long-term energy demand in regions with limited statistical data, and the average standard error of probabilistic distribution in 2030 energy demand was as low as 0.15. The prediction results could provide supportive references to identify energy-saving potentials and energy development pathways.展开更多
Dezert-Smarandache（DSm） theory, a new information fusion theory, is widely applied in image processing, multiple targets tracking identification, and other areas for its excellent processing ability of imperfect inf...Dezert-Smarandache（DSm） theory, a new information fusion theory, is widely applied in image processing, multiple targets tracking identification, and other areas for its excellent processing ability of imperfect information. However, earlier research on DSm theory mainly focused on one sort of questions. An evidence fusion procedure is proposed based on the hybrid DSm model to compensate for a lack of research on the entire information procedure of DSm theory. This paper analyzes the evidence fusion procedure, as well as correlative node input and output information. Key steps and detailed procedures of evidence fusion are also discussed. Finally, an experiment illustrates the efficiency of the proposed evidence fusion procedure.展开更多
Life-cycle assessment (LCA) is environmental evaluation of products, materials, and processes over their life cycle. Truncation uncertainty and corresponding uncertainty are main problems occurred in process life cycl...Life-cycle assessment (LCA) is environmental evaluation of products, materials, and processes over their life cycle. Truncation uncertainty and corresponding uncertainty are main problems occurred in process life cycle assessment (PLCA) modeling and economic input-output life cycle assessment (EIOLCA) modeling. Through combination of these two modelings in different life cycle stage and use of an uncertainty reduction strategy, a hybrid life cycle assessment modeling method was proposed in this study. Case studies were presented on gasoline-powered motorbikes (M-bike) and electricity-powered electric bike (E-bike). Web-based software was developed to analyze process environmental impacts. Results show that the largest part of life cycle energy (LCE) is consumed at use stage. Less energy is consumed in life cycle of E-bike than that of M-bike. GWP (Global Warming Potential), CO (Carbon Monoxide), PM10 (particulate matter) emission of M-bike are higher than that of E-bike, especially at use stage, AP (acidification Potential) emission of E-bike is higher than that of M-bike. Comprehensively, E-bike is energy efficient and less emitting, and better choice for urban private transportation.展开更多
Due to global energy depletion,solar energy technology has been widely used in the world.The output power of the solar energy systems is affected by solar radiation.Accurate short-term forecasting of solar radiation c...Due to global energy depletion,solar energy technology has been widely used in the world.The output power of the solar energy systems is affected by solar radiation.Accurate short-term forecasting of solar radiation can ensure the safety of photovoltaic grids and improve the utilization efficiency of the solar energy systems.In the study,a new decomposition-boosting model using artificial intelligence is proposed to realize the solar radiation multi-step prediction.The proposed model includes four parts:signal decomposition(EWT),neural network(NARX),Adaboost and ARIMA.Three real solar radiation datasets from Changde,China were used to validate the efficiency of the proposed model.To verify the robustness of the multi-step prediction model,this experiment compared nine models and made 1,3,and 5 steps ahead predictions for the time series.It is verified that the proposed model has the best performance among all models.展开更多
The hysteresis characteristic is the major deficiency in the positioning control of magnetic shape memory alloy actuator. A Prandtl-Ishlinskii model was developed to characterize the hysteresis of magnetic shape memor...The hysteresis characteristic is the major deficiency in the positioning control of magnetic shape memory alloy actuator. A Prandtl-Ishlinskii model was developed to characterize the hysteresis of magnetic shape memory alloy actuator. Based on the proposed Prandtl-Ishlinskii model, the inverse Prandtl-Ishlinskii model was established as a feedforward controller to compensate the hysteresis of the magnetic shape memory alloy actuator. For further improving of the positioning precision of the magnetic shape memory alloy actuator, a hybrid control method with hysteresis nonlinear model in feedforward loop was proposed. The control method is separated into two parts: a feedforward loop with inverse Prandtl-Ishlinskii model and a feedback loop with neural network controller. To validate the validity of the proposed control method, a series of simulations and experiments were researched. The simulation and experimental results demonstrate that the maximum error rate of open loop controller based on inverse PI model is 1.72%, the maximum error rate of the hybrid controller based on inverse PI model is 1.37%.展开更多
In order to resolve the coordination and optimization of the power network planning effectively, on the basis of introducing the concept of power intelligence center (PIC), the key factor power flow, line investment a...In order to resolve the coordination and optimization of the power network planning effectively, on the basis of introducing the concept of power intelligence center (PIC), the key factor power flow, line investment and load that impact generation sector, transmission sector and dispatching center in PIC were analyzed and a multi-objective coordination optimal model for new power intelligence center (NPIC) was established. To ensure the reliability and coordination of power grid and reduce investment cost, two aspects were optimized. The evolutionary algorithm was introduced to solve optimal power flow problem and the fitness function was improved to ensure the minimum cost of power generation. The gray particle swarm optimization (GPSO) algorithm was used to forecast load accurately, which can ensure the network with high reliability. On this basis, the multi-objective coordination optimal model which was more practical and in line with the need of the electricity market was proposed, then the coordination model was effectively solved through the improved particle swarm optimization algorithm, and the corresponding algorithm was obtained. The optimization of IEEE30 node system shows that the evolutionary algorithm can effectively solve the problem of optimal power flow. The average load forecasting of GPSO is 26.97 MW, which has an error of 0.34 MW compared with the actual load. The algorithm has higher forecasting accuracy. The multi-objective coordination optimal model for NPIC can effectively process the coordination and optimization problem of power network.展开更多
A kind of hybrid reliability model is presented to solve the fatigue reliability problems of steel bridges. The cumulative damage model is one kind of the models used in fatigue reliability analysis. The parameter cha...A kind of hybrid reliability model is presented to solve the fatigue reliability problems of steel bridges. The cumulative damage model is one kind of the models used in fatigue reliability analysis. The parameter characteristics of the model can be described as probabilistic and interval. The two-stage hybrid reliability model is given with a theoretical foundation and a solving algorithm to solve the hybrid reliability problems. The theoretical foundation is established by the consistency relationships of interval reliability model and probability reliability model with normally distributed variables in theory. The solving process is combined with the definition of interval reliability index and the probabilistic algorithm. With the consideration of the parameter characteristics of the S-N curve, the cumulative damage model with hybrid variables is given based on the standards from different countries. Lastly, a case of steel structure in the Neville Island Bridge is analyzed to verify the applicability of the hybrid reliability model in fatigue reliability analysis based on the AASHTO.展开更多
In order to take precaution and cure against intemet of vehicles （IOV） worm propagation in expressway, the IOV worm propagation and its corresponding anti-worm strategy were studied in expressway interchange termina...In order to take precaution and cure against intemet of vehicles （IOV） worm propagation in expressway, the IOV worm propagation and its corresponding anti-worm strategy were studied in expressway interchange terminal. According to omnirange driving in expressway interchange terminal and vehicular mobile communication environment, an IOV worm propagation model is constructed; and then according to the dynamic propagation law and destructiveness of IOV worm in this environment, a novel hybrid anti-worm strategy for confrontation is designed. This worm propagation model can factually simulates the IOV worm propagation in this interchange terminal environment; and this hybrid anti-worm strategy can effectively control IOV worm propagation in the environment, moreover, it can reduce the influence on network resource overhead.展开更多
Deficiencies of applying the simple genetic algorithm to generate concepts were specified. Based on analyzing conceptual design and the morphological matrix of an excavator, the hybrid optimization model of generating...Deficiencies of applying the simple genetic algorithm to generate concepts were specified. Based on analyzing conceptual design and the morphological matrix of an excavator, the hybrid optimization model of generating its concepts was proposed, viz. an improved adaptive genetic algorithm was applied to explore the excavator concepts in the searching space of conceptual design, and a neural network was used to evaluate the fitness of the population. The optimization of generating concepts was finished through the ＂evolution - evaluation＂ iteration. The results show that by using the hybrid optimization model, not only the fitness evaluation and constraint conditions are well processed, but also the search precision and convergence speed of the optimization process are greatly improved. An example is presented to demonstrate the advantages of the orooosed method and associated algorithms.展开更多
为更精确地预测航班过站时间,将全国机场按照规模差异及不同地理位置所导致的客流量差异和天气差异对航班过站时间造成的不同影响进行分类,基于各类机场航班数据,构建混合轻量级梯度提升机算法(LightGBM)模型对航班过站时间分类预测。...为更精确地预测航班过站时间,将全国机场按照规模差异及不同地理位置所导致的客流量差异和天气差异对航班过站时间造成的不同影响进行分类,基于各类机场航班数据,构建混合轻量级梯度提升机算法(LightGBM)模型对航班过站时间分类预测。引入自适应鲁棒损失函数(adaptive robust loss function,ARLF)改进LightGBM模型损失函数,降低航班数据中存在离群值的影响;通过改进的麻雀搜索算法对改进后的LightGBM模型进行参数寻优,形成混合LightGBM模型。采用全国2019年全年航班数据进行验证,实验结果验证了方法的可行性。展开更多
基金supported by the National Defense Pre-research Foundation of China(51327030104)
文摘In order to meet the demand of testability analysis and evaluation for complex equipment under a small sample test in the equipment life cycle, the hierarchical hybrid testability model- ing and evaluation method （HHTME）, which combines the testabi- lity structure model （TSM） with the testability Bayesian networks model （TBNM）, is presented. Firstly, the testability network topo- logy of complex equipment is built by using the hierarchical hybrid testability modeling method. Secondly, the prior conditional prob- ability distribution between network nodes is determined through expert experience. Then the Bayesian method is used to update the conditional probability distribution, according to history test information, virtual simulation information and similar product in- formation. Finally, the learned hierarchical hybrid testability model （HHTM） is used to estimate the testability of equipment. Compared with the results of other modeling methods, the relative deviation of the HHTM is only 0.52%, and the evaluation result is the most accu rate.
基金supported by the Beijing Education Committee Cooperation Building Foundation Project (XK100070532)
文摘The mechanical system with backlash is distinguished between a＂backlash mode＂and a＂contact mode＂.The inherent switching between the two operating modes makes the system a prime example of hybrid system.For eliminating the bad effect of backlash, a piecewise affine（PWA） model of the mechanical servo system with backlash is built.The optimal control of constrained PWA system is obtained by taking advantage of model predictive control（MPC） method, and the explicit solution of MPC in a look-up table form is figured out by combining the dynamic programming and multi-parametric quadratic programming, thereby establishing an explicit hybrid model predictive controller.Furthermore, a piecewise quadratic（PWQ） function for guaranteeing the stability of closed-loop control is found by formulating the search of PWQ function as a semi-definite programming problem.In the tracking experiments, it is demonstrated that the explicit hybrid model predictive controller has a good traction control effect on the mechanical system with backlash.The error meets the demands of real system.Further, compared to the direct on-line computation, the computation burden is reduced by the explicit solution, thereby being suitable for real-time control of system with short sampling time.
基金Project(51606225) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2016JJ2144) supported by Hunan Provincial Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(502221703) supported by Graduate Independent Explorative Innovation Foundation of Central South University,China
文摘An accurate long-term energy demand forecasting is essential for energy planning and policy making. However, due to the immature energy data collecting and statistical methods, the available data are usually limited in many regions. In this paper, on the basis of comprehensive literature review, we proposed a hybrid model based on the long-range alternative energy planning (LEAP) model to improve the accuracy of energy demand forecasting in these regions. By taking Hunan province, China as a typical case, the proposed hybrid model was applied to estimating the possible future energy demand and energy-saving potentials in different sectors. The structure of LEAP model was estimated by Sankey energy flow, and Leslie matrix and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to predict the population, industrial structure and transportation turnover, respectively. Monte-Carlo method was employed to evaluate the uncertainty of forecasted results. The results showed that the hybrid model combined with scenario analysis provided a relatively accurate forecast for the long-term energy demand in regions with limited statistical data, and the average standard error of probabilistic distribution in 2030 energy demand was as low as 0.15. The prediction results could provide supportive references to identify energy-saving potentials and energy development pathways.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61102168)the Military Innovation Foundation(X11QN106)
文摘Dezert-Smarandache（DSm） theory, a new information fusion theory, is widely applied in image processing, multiple targets tracking identification, and other areas for its excellent processing ability of imperfect information. However, earlier research on DSm theory mainly focused on one sort of questions. An evidence fusion procedure is proposed based on the hybrid DSm model to compensate for a lack of research on the entire information procedure of DSm theory. This paper analyzes the evidence fusion procedure, as well as correlative node input and output information. Key steps and detailed procedures of evidence fusion are also discussed. Finally, an experiment illustrates the efficiency of the proposed evidence fusion procedure.
文摘Life-cycle assessment (LCA) is environmental evaluation of products, materials, and processes over their life cycle. Truncation uncertainty and corresponding uncertainty are main problems occurred in process life cycle assessment (PLCA) modeling and economic input-output life cycle assessment (EIOLCA) modeling. Through combination of these two modelings in different life cycle stage and use of an uncertainty reduction strategy, a hybrid life cycle assessment modeling method was proposed in this study. Case studies were presented on gasoline-powered motorbikes (M-bike) and electricity-powered electric bike (E-bike). Web-based software was developed to analyze process environmental impacts. Results show that the largest part of life cycle energy (LCE) is consumed at use stage. Less energy is consumed in life cycle of E-bike than that of M-bike. GWP (Global Warming Potential), CO (Carbon Monoxide), PM10 (particulate matter) emission of M-bike are higher than that of E-bike, especially at use stage, AP (acidification Potential) emission of E-bike is higher than that of M-bike. Comprehensively, E-bike is energy efficient and less emitting, and better choice for urban private transportation.
基金Project(2020TJ-Q06)supported by Hunan Provincial Science&Technology Talent Support,ChinaProject(KQ1707017)supported by the Changsha Science&Technology,ChinaProject(2019CX005)supported by the Innovation Driven Project of the Central South University,China。
文摘Due to global energy depletion,solar energy technology has been widely used in the world.The output power of the solar energy systems is affected by solar radiation.Accurate short-term forecasting of solar radiation can ensure the safety of photovoltaic grids and improve the utilization efficiency of the solar energy systems.In the study,a new decomposition-boosting model using artificial intelligence is proposed to realize the solar radiation multi-step prediction.The proposed model includes four parts:signal decomposition(EWT),neural network(NARX),Adaboost and ARIMA.Three real solar radiation datasets from Changde,China were used to validate the efficiency of the proposed model.To verify the robustness of the multi-step prediction model,this experiment compared nine models and made 1,3,and 5 steps ahead predictions for the time series.It is verified that the proposed model has the best performance among all models.
基金Project(51105170) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject supported by the Scientific Research Foundation for the Returned Overseas Chinese Scholars,Ministry of Education,China
文摘The hysteresis characteristic is the major deficiency in the positioning control of magnetic shape memory alloy actuator. A Prandtl-Ishlinskii model was developed to characterize the hysteresis of magnetic shape memory alloy actuator. Based on the proposed Prandtl-Ishlinskii model, the inverse Prandtl-Ishlinskii model was established as a feedforward controller to compensate the hysteresis of the magnetic shape memory alloy actuator. For further improving of the positioning precision of the magnetic shape memory alloy actuator, a hybrid control method with hysteresis nonlinear model in feedforward loop was proposed. The control method is separated into two parts: a feedforward loop with inverse Prandtl-Ishlinskii model and a feedback loop with neural network controller. To validate the validity of the proposed control method, a series of simulations and experiments were researched. The simulation and experimental results demonstrate that the maximum error rate of open loop controller based on inverse PI model is 1.72%, the maximum error rate of the hybrid controller based on inverse PI model is 1.37%.
基金Project (70671039) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘In order to resolve the coordination and optimization of the power network planning effectively, on the basis of introducing the concept of power intelligence center (PIC), the key factor power flow, line investment and load that impact generation sector, transmission sector and dispatching center in PIC were analyzed and a multi-objective coordination optimal model for new power intelligence center (NPIC) was established. To ensure the reliability and coordination of power grid and reduce investment cost, two aspects were optimized. The evolutionary algorithm was introduced to solve optimal power flow problem and the fitness function was improved to ensure the minimum cost of power generation. The gray particle swarm optimization (GPSO) algorithm was used to forecast load accurately, which can ensure the network with high reliability. On this basis, the multi-objective coordination optimal model which was more practical and in line with the need of the electricity market was proposed, then the coordination model was effectively solved through the improved particle swarm optimization algorithm, and the corresponding algorithm was obtained. The optimization of IEEE30 node system shows that the evolutionary algorithm can effectively solve the problem of optimal power flow. The average load forecasting of GPSO is 26.97 MW, which has an error of 0.34 MW compared with the actual load. The algorithm has higher forecasting accuracy. The multi-objective coordination optimal model for NPIC can effectively process the coordination and optimization problem of power network.
基金Projects(51178042,51578047)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(C14JB00340)supported by the Innovative Research Fund in Beijing Jiaotong University,ChinaProject(2014-ZJKJ-03)supported by Science and Technology Research and Development Fund of the China Communications Construction Co.,LTD
文摘A kind of hybrid reliability model is presented to solve the fatigue reliability problems of steel bridges. The cumulative damage model is one kind of the models used in fatigue reliability analysis. The parameter characteristics of the model can be described as probabilistic and interval. The two-stage hybrid reliability model is given with a theoretical foundation and a solving algorithm to solve the hybrid reliability problems. The theoretical foundation is established by the consistency relationships of interval reliability model and probability reliability model with normally distributed variables in theory. The solving process is combined with the definition of interval reliability index and the probabilistic algorithm. With the consideration of the parameter characteristics of the S-N curve, the cumulative damage model with hybrid variables is given based on the standards from different countries. Lastly, a case of steel structure in the Neville Island Bridge is analyzed to verify the applicability of the hybrid reliability model in fatigue reliability analysis based on the AASHTO.
基金Project(61005008) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(JI300D004) supported by the COSTIND Application Foundation of China
文摘In order to take precaution and cure against intemet of vehicles （IOV） worm propagation in expressway, the IOV worm propagation and its corresponding anti-worm strategy were studied in expressway interchange terminal. According to omnirange driving in expressway interchange terminal and vehicular mobile communication environment, an IOV worm propagation model is constructed; and then according to the dynamic propagation law and destructiveness of IOV worm in this environment, a novel hybrid anti-worm strategy for confrontation is designed. This worm propagation model can factually simulates the IOV worm propagation in this interchange terminal environment; and this hybrid anti-worm strategy can effectively control IOV worm propagation in the environment, moreover, it can reduce the influence on network resource overhead.
文摘Deficiencies of applying the simple genetic algorithm to generate concepts were specified. Based on analyzing conceptual design and the morphological matrix of an excavator, the hybrid optimization model of generating its concepts was proposed, viz. an improved adaptive genetic algorithm was applied to explore the excavator concepts in the searching space of conceptual design, and a neural network was used to evaluate the fitness of the population. The optimization of generating concepts was finished through the ＂evolution - evaluation＂ iteration. The results show that by using the hybrid optimization model, not only the fitness evaluation and constraint conditions are well processed, but also the search precision and convergence speed of the optimization process are greatly improved. An example is presented to demonstrate the advantages of the orooosed method and associated algorithms.
文摘为更精确地预测航班过站时间,将全国机场按照规模差异及不同地理位置所导致的客流量差异和天气差异对航班过站时间造成的不同影响进行分类,基于各类机场航班数据,构建混合轻量级梯度提升机算法(LightGBM)模型对航班过站时间分类预测。引入自适应鲁棒损失函数(adaptive robust loss function,ARLF)改进LightGBM模型损失函数,降低航班数据中存在离群值的影响;通过改进的麻雀搜索算法对改进后的LightGBM模型进行参数寻优,形成混合LightGBM模型。采用全国2019年全年航班数据进行验证,实验结果验证了方法的可行性。
