As a tropical island confronting the dual imperatives of tourism-driven economic growth and ecological vulnerability,Hainan's land-use sustainability critically impacts both regional development and coastal ecosys...As a tropical island confronting the dual imperatives of tourism-driven economic growth and ecological vulnerability,Hainan's land-use sustainability critically impacts both regional development and coastal ecosystem security.This study employs a coupled PLUS-InVEST modeling framework to analyze land-use changes and habitat quality dynamics from 2000 to 2020,projecting ecological outcomes under three development scenarios for 2030.Key findings reveal:(1)A persistent bimodal habitat distribution pattern,with high-quality areas concentrated in the central forest zone and degraded areas in coastal peripheries,exhibiting a continuous decline over the 20-year period.(2)Accelerated urbanization between 2010 and 2020 resulted in the conversion of ecological land to construction use,correlating strongly with habitat fragmentation intensity.(3)Baseline projections for 2030 indicate that construction land will dominate new conversions.(4)Ecological protection scenarios demonstrate recoverable habitat potentials,particularly within coastal buffer zones.These findings provide empirical validation of scenario-driven land-use planning as a viable tool for island ecosystems,highlighting the critical need to balance tourism infrastructure development with coastal conservation imperatives in tropical island sustainability management.This methodology advances spatial decision-making for balancing island economic growth with biodiversity preservation,offering replicable strategies for global island ecosystems facing similar sustainability challenges.展开更多
基金National Science and Technology Basic Resources Investigation Program(2022FY101901-2)。
文摘As a tropical island confronting the dual imperatives of tourism-driven economic growth and ecological vulnerability,Hainan's land-use sustainability critically impacts both regional development and coastal ecosystem security.This study employs a coupled PLUS-InVEST modeling framework to analyze land-use changes and habitat quality dynamics from 2000 to 2020,projecting ecological outcomes under three development scenarios for 2030.Key findings reveal:(1)A persistent bimodal habitat distribution pattern,with high-quality areas concentrated in the central forest zone and degraded areas in coastal peripheries,exhibiting a continuous decline over the 20-year period.(2)Accelerated urbanization between 2010 and 2020 resulted in the conversion of ecological land to construction use,correlating strongly with habitat fragmentation intensity.(3)Baseline projections for 2030 indicate that construction land will dominate new conversions.(4)Ecological protection scenarios demonstrate recoverable habitat potentials,particularly within coastal buffer zones.These findings provide empirical validation of scenario-driven land-use planning as a viable tool for island ecosystems,highlighting the critical need to balance tourism infrastructure development with coastal conservation imperatives in tropical island sustainability management.This methodology advances spatial decision-making for balancing island economic growth with biodiversity preservation,offering replicable strategies for global island ecosystems facing similar sustainability challenges.
