Decision making to mitigate the effects of natural hazards is a complex undertaking fraught with uncertainty. Models to describe risks associated with natural hazards have proliferated in recent years. Concurrently, t...Decision making to mitigate the effects of natural hazards is a complex undertaking fraught with uncertainty. Models to describe risks associated with natural hazards have proliferated in recent years. Concurrently, there is a growing body of work focused on developing best practices for natural hazard modeling and to create structured evaluation criteria for complex environmental models. However, to our knowledge there has been less focus on the conditions where decision makers can confidently rely on results from these models. In this review we propose a preliminary set of conditions necessary for the appropriate application of modeled results to natural hazard decision making and provide relevant examples within US wildfire management programs.展开更多
A larger number of uncertain factors in energy systems influence their evolution.Owing to the complexity of energy system modeling,incorporating uncertainty analysis to energy system modeling is essential for future e...A larger number of uncertain factors in energy systems influence their evolution.Owing to the complexity of energy system modeling,incorporating uncertainty analysis to energy system modeling is essential for future energy system planning and resource allocation.This study focusses on long-term energy system optimization model.The important uncertain parameters in the model are analyzed and divided into policy,economic,and technical factors.This study specifically addresses the challenges related to carbon emission reduction and energy transition.It involves collecting and organizing relevant research on uncertainty analysis of long-term energy systems.Various energy system uncertainty modeling methods and their applications from the literature are summarized in this review.Finally,important uncertainty factors and uncertainty modeling methods for long-term energy system modeling are discussed,and future research directions are proposed.展开更多
In this paper, the problem of the finite-time synchronization of two uncertain chaotic gyros is discussed. The parameters of both the master and the slave gyros are assumed to be unknown in advance. The effects of mod...In this paper, the problem of the finite-time synchronization of two uncertain chaotic gyros is discussed. The parameters of both the master and the slave gyros are assumed to be unknown in advance. The effects of model uncertainties and input nonlinearities are also taken into account. An appropriate adaptation law is proposed to tackle the gyros＇ unknown parameters. Based on the adaptation law and the finite-time control technique, proper control laws are introduced to ensure that the trajectories of the slave gyro converge to the trajectories of the master gyro in a given finite time. Simulation results show the applicability and the efficiency of the proposed finite-time controller.展开更多
Classical structural reliability analysis of intact ship hulls is extended to the case of ships with collision or grounding damages.Still water load distribution and residual bending moment capacity are included as ra...Classical structural reliability analysis of intact ship hulls is extended to the case of ships with collision or grounding damages.Still water load distribution and residual bending moment capacity are included as random variables in the limit state equation.The probability density functions of these random variables are defined based on random damage parameters given by the Marine Environment Protection Committee of the International Maritime Organization,while the proposed reliability formulation is consistent with international recommendations and thus may be valuable in the development of rules for accidental limit states.The methodology is applied on an example of an Aframax oil tanker.The proposed approach captures in a rational way complex interaction of different pertinent variables influencing safety of damaged ship structure.展开更多
文摘Decision making to mitigate the effects of natural hazards is a complex undertaking fraught with uncertainty. Models to describe risks associated with natural hazards have proliferated in recent years. Concurrently, there is a growing body of work focused on developing best practices for natural hazard modeling and to create structured evaluation criteria for complex environmental models. However, to our knowledge there has been less focus on the conditions where decision makers can confidently rely on results from these models. In this review we propose a preliminary set of conditions necessary for the appropriate application of modeled results to natural hazard decision making and provide relevant examples within US wildfire management programs.
基金supported by Global Energy Interconnection Group Co.,Ltd.:Assessment of China’s carbon neutrality implementation path and simulation research on policy tool combination(SGGEIG00JYJS2200059).
文摘A larger number of uncertain factors in energy systems influence their evolution.Owing to the complexity of energy system modeling,incorporating uncertainty analysis to energy system modeling is essential for future energy system planning and resource allocation.This study focusses on long-term energy system optimization model.The important uncertain parameters in the model are analyzed and divided into policy,economic,and technical factors.This study specifically addresses the challenges related to carbon emission reduction and energy transition.It involves collecting and organizing relevant research on uncertainty analysis of long-term energy systems.Various energy system uncertainty modeling methods and their applications from the literature are summarized in this review.Finally,important uncertainty factors and uncertainty modeling methods for long-term energy system modeling are discussed,and future research directions are proposed.
文摘In this paper, the problem of the finite-time synchronization of two uncertain chaotic gyros is discussed. The parameters of both the master and the slave gyros are assumed to be unknown in advance. The effects of model uncertainties and input nonlinearities are also taken into account. An appropriate adaptation law is proposed to tackle the gyros＇ unknown parameters. Based on the adaptation law and the finite-time control technique, proper control laws are introduced to ensure that the trajectories of the slave gyro converge to the trajectories of the master gyro in a given finite time. Simulation results show the applicability and the efficiency of the proposed finite-time controller.
基金The work of the first two authors has been fully supported by the Croatian Science Foundation within the project lP-2019-04-2085This work contributes to the Strategic Research Plan of the Centre for Marine Technology and Ocean Engineering(CENTEC),which is financed by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology(Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia-FCT)under contract UIDB/UIDP/00134/2020.
文摘Classical structural reliability analysis of intact ship hulls is extended to the case of ships with collision or grounding damages.Still water load distribution and residual bending moment capacity are included as random variables in the limit state equation.The probability density functions of these random variables are defined based on random damage parameters given by the Marine Environment Protection Committee of the International Maritime Organization,while the proposed reliability formulation is consistent with international recommendations and thus may be valuable in the development of rules for accidental limit states.The methodology is applied on an example of an Aframax oil tanker.The proposed approach captures in a rational way complex interaction of different pertinent variables influencing safety of damaged ship structure.
