Short-term forecasting is a difficult problem because of the influence of non-linear factors and irregular events.A novel short-term forecasting method named TIK was proposed,in which ARMA forecasting model was used t...Short-term forecasting is a difficult problem because of the influence of non-linear factors and irregular events.A novel short-term forecasting method named TIK was proposed,in which ARMA forecasting model was used to consider the load time series trend forecasting,intelligence forecasting DESVR model was applied to estimate the non-linear influence,and knowledge mining methods were applied to correct the errors caused by irregular events.In order to prove the effectiveness of the proposed model,an application of the daily maximum load forecasting was evaluated.The experimental results show that the DESVR model improves the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) from 2.82% to 2.55%,and the knowledge rules can improve the MAPE from 2.55% to 2.30%.Compared with the single ARMA forecasting method and ARMA combined SVR forecasting method,it can be proved that TIK method gains the best performance in short-term load forecasting.展开更多
Important Dates Submission due November 15, 2005 Notification of acceptance December 30, 2005 Camera-ready copy due January 10, 2006 Workshop Scope Intelligence and Security Informatics (ISI) can be broadly defined as...Important Dates Submission due November 15, 2005 Notification of acceptance December 30, 2005 Camera-ready copy due January 10, 2006 Workshop Scope Intelligence and Security Informatics (ISI) can be broadly defined as the study of the development and use of advanced information technologies and systems for national and international security-related applications. The First and Second Symposiums on ISI were held in Tucson,Arizona,in 2003 and 2004,respectively. In 2005,the IEEE International Conference on ISI was held in Atlanta,Georgia. These ISI conferences have brought together academic researchers,law enforcement and intelligence experts,information technology consultant and practitioners to discuss their research and practice related to various ISI topics including ISI data management,data and text mining for ISI applications,terrorism informatics,deception detection,terrorist and criminal social network analysis,crime analysis,monitoring and surveillance,policy studies and evaluation,information assurance,among others. We continue this stream of ISI conferences by organizing the Workshop on Intelligence and Security Informatics (WISI’06) in conjunction with the Pacific Asia Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (PAKDD’06). WISI’06 will provide a stimulating forum for ISI researchers in Pacific Asia and other regions of the world to exchange ideas and report research progress. The workshop also welcomes contributions dealing with ISI challenges specific to the Pacific Asian region.展开更多
In order to compete in the global manufacturing mar ke t, agility is the only possible solution to response to the fragmented market se gments and frequently changed customer requirements. However, manufacturing agil ...In order to compete in the global manufacturing mar ke t, agility is the only possible solution to response to the fragmented market se gments and frequently changed customer requirements. However, manufacturing agil ity can only be attained through the deployment of knowledge. To embed knowledge into a CAD system to form a knowledge intensive CAD (KIC) system is one of way to enhance the design compatibility of a manufacturing company. The most difficu lt phase to develop a KIC system is to capitalize a huge amount of legacy data t o form a knowledge database. In the past, such capitalization process could only be done solely manually or semi-automatic. In this paper, a five step model fo r automatic design knowledge capitalization through the use of data mining is pr oposed whilst details of how to select, verify and performance benchmarking an a ppropriate data mining algorithm for a specific design task will also be discuss ed. A case study concerning the design of a plastic toaster casing was used as an illustration for the proposed methodology and it was found that the avera ge absolute error of the predictions for the most appropriate algorithm is withi n 17%.展开更多
基金Projects(70671039,71071052) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProjects(10QX44,09QX68) supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities in China
文摘Short-term forecasting is a difficult problem because of the influence of non-linear factors and irregular events.A novel short-term forecasting method named TIK was proposed,in which ARMA forecasting model was used to consider the load time series trend forecasting,intelligence forecasting DESVR model was applied to estimate the non-linear influence,and knowledge mining methods were applied to correct the errors caused by irregular events.In order to prove the effectiveness of the proposed model,an application of the daily maximum load forecasting was evaluated.The experimental results show that the DESVR model improves the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) from 2.82% to 2.55%,and the knowledge rules can improve the MAPE from 2.55% to 2.30%.Compared with the single ARMA forecasting method and ARMA combined SVR forecasting method,it can be proved that TIK method gains the best performance in short-term load forecasting.
文摘Important Dates Submission due November 15, 2005 Notification of acceptance December 30, 2005 Camera-ready copy due January 10, 2006 Workshop Scope Intelligence and Security Informatics (ISI) can be broadly defined as the study of the development and use of advanced information technologies and systems for national and international security-related applications. The First and Second Symposiums on ISI were held in Tucson,Arizona,in 2003 and 2004,respectively. In 2005,the IEEE International Conference on ISI was held in Atlanta,Georgia. These ISI conferences have brought together academic researchers,law enforcement and intelligence experts,information technology consultant and practitioners to discuss their research and practice related to various ISI topics including ISI data management,data and text mining for ISI applications,terrorism informatics,deception detection,terrorist and criminal social network analysis,crime analysis,monitoring and surveillance,policy studies and evaluation,information assurance,among others. We continue this stream of ISI conferences by organizing the Workshop on Intelligence and Security Informatics (WISI’06) in conjunction with the Pacific Asia Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (PAKDD’06). WISI’06 will provide a stimulating forum for ISI researchers in Pacific Asia and other regions of the world to exchange ideas and report research progress. The workshop also welcomes contributions dealing with ISI challenges specific to the Pacific Asian region.
文摘In order to compete in the global manufacturing mar ke t, agility is the only possible solution to response to the fragmented market se gments and frequently changed customer requirements. However, manufacturing agil ity can only be attained through the deployment of knowledge. To embed knowledge into a CAD system to form a knowledge intensive CAD (KIC) system is one of way to enhance the design compatibility of a manufacturing company. The most difficu lt phase to develop a KIC system is to capitalize a huge amount of legacy data t o form a knowledge database. In the past, such capitalization process could only be done solely manually or semi-automatic. In this paper, a five step model fo r automatic design knowledge capitalization through the use of data mining is pr oposed whilst details of how to select, verify and performance benchmarking an a ppropriate data mining algorithm for a specific design task will also be discuss ed. A case study concerning the design of a plastic toaster casing was used as an illustration for the proposed methodology and it was found that the avera ge absolute error of the predictions for the most appropriate algorithm is withi n 17%.
