This paper discusses some issues on human reliability model of time dependent human behavior. Some results of the crew reliability experiment on Tsinghua training simulator in China are given, Meanwhile, a case of ca...This paper discusses some issues on human reliability model of time dependent human behavior. Some results of the crew reliability experiment on Tsinghua training simulator in China are given, Meanwhile, a case of calculation for human error probability during anticipated transient without scram (ATWS) based on the data drew from the recent experiment is offered.展开更多
Human error,an important factor,may lead to serious results in various operational fields.The human factor plays a critical role in the risks and hazards of the maritime industry.A ship can achieve safe navigation whe...Human error,an important factor,may lead to serious results in various operational fields.The human factor plays a critical role in the risks and hazards of the maritime industry.A ship can achieve safe navigation when all operations in the engine room are conducted vigilantly.This paper presents a systematic evaluation of 20 failures in auxiliary systems of marine diesel engines that may be caused by human error.The Cognitive Reliability Error Analysis Method(CREAM)is used to determine the potentiality of human errors in the failures implied thanks to the answers of experts.Using this method,the probabilities of human error on failures were evaluated and the critical ones were emphasized.The measures to be taken for these results will make significant contributions not only to the seafarers but also to the ship owners.展开更多
为满足人机系统概率风险评估的需要,提出一种人为差错概率量化方法。分析技能、规则和知识为基础(skill,rule and knowledge-based,SRK)框架和行为模式的确定方法Hanaman决策树法,指出在确定行为模式的过程中考虑行为模式影响因素的不...为满足人机系统概率风险评估的需要,提出一种人为差错概率量化方法。分析技能、规则和知识为基础(skill,rule and knowledge-based,SRK)框架和行为模式的确定方法Hanaman决策树法,指出在确定行为模式的过程中考虑行为模式影响因素的不确定性是必要的;使用模糊逻辑方法处理行为模式各个影响因素的不确定性,根据Hanaman决策树构建模糊推理规则,利用系统人为行为可靠性程序(systematic human action reliability procedure,SHARP)方法所提供的人为差错概率区间确定人为差错概率的隶属度函数。结果表明:该方法考虑了任务场景的不确定性,可以得到人为差错概率的精确值,满足人机系统概率风险评估的需要。展开更多
文摘This paper discusses some issues on human reliability model of time dependent human behavior. Some results of the crew reliability experiment on Tsinghua training simulator in China are given, Meanwhile, a case of calculation for human error probability during anticipated transient without scram (ATWS) based on the data drew from the recent experiment is offered.
文摘Human error,an important factor,may lead to serious results in various operational fields.The human factor plays a critical role in the risks and hazards of the maritime industry.A ship can achieve safe navigation when all operations in the engine room are conducted vigilantly.This paper presents a systematic evaluation of 20 failures in auxiliary systems of marine diesel engines that may be caused by human error.The Cognitive Reliability Error Analysis Method(CREAM)is used to determine the potentiality of human errors in the failures implied thanks to the answers of experts.Using this method,the probabilities of human error on failures were evaluated and the critical ones were emphasized.The measures to be taken for these results will make significant contributions not only to the seafarers but also to the ship owners.
文摘为满足人机系统概率风险评估的需要,提出一种人为差错概率量化方法。分析技能、规则和知识为基础(skill,rule and knowledge-based,SRK)框架和行为模式的确定方法Hanaman决策树法,指出在确定行为模式的过程中考虑行为模式影响因素的不确定性是必要的;使用模糊逻辑方法处理行为模式各个影响因素的不确定性,根据Hanaman决策树构建模糊推理规则,利用系统人为行为可靠性程序(systematic human action reliability procedure,SHARP)方法所提供的人为差错概率区间确定人为差错概率的隶属度函数。结果表明:该方法考虑了任务场景的不确定性,可以得到人为差错概率的精确值,满足人机系统概率风险评估的需要。
