Bonding quality at the interface of solid propellant grains is crucial for the reliability and safety of solid rocket motors.Although bonding reliability is influenced by numerous factors,the lack of quantitative char...Bonding quality at the interface of solid propellant grains is crucial for the reliability and safety of solid rocket motors.Although bonding reliability is influenced by numerous factors,the lack of quantitative characterization of interface debonding mechanisms and the challenge of identifying key factors have made precise control of process variables difficult,resulting in unpredictable failure risks.This paper presents an improved fuzzy failure probability evaluation method that combines fuzzy fault tree analysis with expert knowledge,transforming process data into fuzzy failure probability to accurately assess debonding probabilities.The predictive model is constructed through a general regression neural network and optimized using the particle swarm optimization algorithm.Sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify key decision variables,including normal force,grain rotation speed,and adhesive weight,which are verified experimentally.Compared with classical models,the maximum error margin of the constructed reliability prediction model is only 0.02%,and it has high stability.The experimental results indicate that the main factors affecting debonding are processing roughness and coating uniformity.Controlling the key decision variable as the median resulted in a maximum increase of 200.7%in bonding strength.The feasibility of the improved method has been verified,confirming that identifying key decision variables has the ability to improve bonding reliability.The proposed method simplifies the evaluation of propellant interface bonding reliability under complex conditions by quantifying the relationship between process parameters and failure risk,enabling targeted management of key decision variables.展开更多
将FFTA(Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis,模糊故障树分析法)应用到ZPW-2000A轨道电路系统的故障诊断分析之中,可以解决系统各部件之间具有不确定性的联系以及各部件的故障概率数据较少,无法精确获得的问题。将模糊逻辑理论引入到FTA(Fault Tr...将FFTA(Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis,模糊故障树分析法)应用到ZPW-2000A轨道电路系统的故障诊断分析之中,可以解决系统各部件之间具有不确定性的联系以及各部件的故障概率数据较少,无法精确获得的问题。将模糊逻辑理论引入到FTA(Fault Tree Analysis,故障树分析)中,使传统的FTA具备了处理模糊信息的能力。再根据模糊故障树构造BN(Bayesian Networks,贝叶斯网络),利用BN的双向推理功能计算出ZPW-2000A系统的故障概率,并可以寻找出最有可能导致系统发生故障的原因。展开更多
基金supported in part by the Equipment Development Pre-research Project funded by Equipment Development Department,PRC under Grant No.50923010501Fundamental Research Program of Shenyang Institute of Automation(SIA),Chinese Academy of Sciencess under Grant No.355060201。
文摘Bonding quality at the interface of solid propellant grains is crucial for the reliability and safety of solid rocket motors.Although bonding reliability is influenced by numerous factors,the lack of quantitative characterization of interface debonding mechanisms and the challenge of identifying key factors have made precise control of process variables difficult,resulting in unpredictable failure risks.This paper presents an improved fuzzy failure probability evaluation method that combines fuzzy fault tree analysis with expert knowledge,transforming process data into fuzzy failure probability to accurately assess debonding probabilities.The predictive model is constructed through a general regression neural network and optimized using the particle swarm optimization algorithm.Sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify key decision variables,including normal force,grain rotation speed,and adhesive weight,which are verified experimentally.Compared with classical models,the maximum error margin of the constructed reliability prediction model is only 0.02%,and it has high stability.The experimental results indicate that the main factors affecting debonding are processing roughness and coating uniformity.Controlling the key decision variable as the median resulted in a maximum increase of 200.7%in bonding strength.The feasibility of the improved method has been verified,confirming that identifying key decision variables has the ability to improve bonding reliability.The proposed method simplifies the evaluation of propellant interface bonding reliability under complex conditions by quantifying the relationship between process parameters and failure risk,enabling targeted management of key decision variables.
文摘将FFTA(Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis,模糊故障树分析法)应用到ZPW-2000A轨道电路系统的故障诊断分析之中,可以解决系统各部件之间具有不确定性的联系以及各部件的故障概率数据较少,无法精确获得的问题。将模糊逻辑理论引入到FTA(Fault Tree Analysis,故障树分析)中,使传统的FTA具备了处理模糊信息的能力。再根据模糊故障树构造BN(Bayesian Networks,贝叶斯网络),利用BN的双向推理功能计算出ZPW-2000A系统的故障概率,并可以寻找出最有可能导致系统发生故障的原因。
