Three forecasting models are set up: the auto\|regressive moving average model, the grey forecasting model for the rate of qualified products P t, and the grey forecasting model for time intervals of the quality cata...Three forecasting models are set up: the auto\|regressive moving average model, the grey forecasting model for the rate of qualified products P t, and the grey forecasting model for time intervals of the quality catastrophes. Then a combined forewarning system for the quality of products is established, which contains three models, judgment rules and forewarning state illustration. Finally with an example of the practical production, this modeling system is proved fairly effective.展开更多
为了更好地运用跟驰模型描述车辆在信号交叉口的通行过程,提出一种考虑信号灯变化对车流瞬时冲击的交叉口全速度差和加速度(full velocity difference and acceleration at intersection,FVDA-I)模型,并根据车辆轨迹数据标定了跟驰模型...为了更好地运用跟驰模型描述车辆在信号交叉口的通行过程,提出一种考虑信号灯变化对车流瞬时冲击的交叉口全速度差和加速度(full velocity difference and acceleration at intersection,FVDA-I)模型,并根据车辆轨迹数据标定了跟驰模型参数。首先,构建位置-时间临界轨迹来判断车辆能否在绿灯时间内通过交叉口,并提出转弯车辆优化速度。然后,使用S-G滤波器对车辆位置进行平滑拟合,结合期望最大化(expectation maximum,EM)算法标定模型参数。最后,运用FVDA-I模型估计车辆在交叉口的通行时间以验证模型的有效性。仿真结果表明:相较于改进全速度差(full velocity difference,FVD)模型,FVDA-I模型具有头车启动舒适缓慢、跟随车辆启动快、车队总通行时间短的特点,通行效率提高了11.3%,车辆的通行时间与实际采样轨迹的估计时间对比误差小于10%。展开更多
文摘Three forecasting models are set up: the auto\|regressive moving average model, the grey forecasting model for the rate of qualified products P t, and the grey forecasting model for time intervals of the quality catastrophes. Then a combined forewarning system for the quality of products is established, which contains three models, judgment rules and forewarning state illustration. Finally with an example of the practical production, this modeling system is proved fairly effective.
文摘为了更好地运用跟驰模型描述车辆在信号交叉口的通行过程,提出一种考虑信号灯变化对车流瞬时冲击的交叉口全速度差和加速度(full velocity difference and acceleration at intersection,FVDA-I)模型,并根据车辆轨迹数据标定了跟驰模型参数。首先,构建位置-时间临界轨迹来判断车辆能否在绿灯时间内通过交叉口,并提出转弯车辆优化速度。然后,使用S-G滤波器对车辆位置进行平滑拟合,结合期望最大化(expectation maximum,EM)算法标定模型参数。最后,运用FVDA-I模型估计车辆在交叉口的通行时间以验证模型的有效性。仿真结果表明:相较于改进全速度差(full velocity difference,FVD)模型,FVDA-I模型具有头车启动舒适缓慢、跟随车辆启动快、车队总通行时间短的特点,通行效率提高了11.3%,车辆的通行时间与实际采样轨迹的估计时间对比误差小于10%。
