The manner and conditions of running the decision-making system with self-defense electronic jamming are given. After proposing the scenario of applying discrete dynamic Bayesian network to the decision making with se...The manner and conditions of running the decision-making system with self-defense electronic jamming are given. After proposing the scenario of applying discrete dynamic Bayesian network to the decision making with self-defense electronic jamming, a decision-making model with self-defense electronic jamming based on the discrete dynamic Bayesian network is established. Then jamming decision inferences by the aid of the algorithm of discrete dynamic Bayesian network are carried on. The simulating result shows that this method is able to synthesize different targets which are not predominant. In this way, various features at the same time, as well as the same feature appearing at different time complement mutually; in addition, the accuracy and reliability of electronic jamming decision making are enhanced significantly.展开更多
How to effectively evaluate the firing precision of weapon equipment at low cost is one of the core contents of improving the test level of weapon system.A new method to evaluate the firing precision of the MLRS consi...How to effectively evaluate the firing precision of weapon equipment at low cost is one of the core contents of improving the test level of weapon system.A new method to evaluate the firing precision of the MLRS considering the credibility of simulation system based on Bayesian theory is proposed in this paper.First of all,a comprehensive index system for the credibility of the simulation system of the firing precision of the MLRS is constructed combined with the group analytic hierarchy process.A modified method for determining the comprehensive weight of the index is established to improve the rationality of the index weight coefficients.The Bayesian posterior estimation formula of firing precision considering prior information is derived in the form of mixed prior distribution,and the rationality of prior information used in estimation model is discussed quantitatively.With the simulation tests,the different evaluation methods are compared to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.Finally,the experimental results show that the effectiveness of estimation method for firing precision is improved by more than 25%.展开更多
Game theory can be applied to the air combat decision-making problem of multiple unmanned combat air vehicles(UCAVs).However,it is difficult to have satisfactory decision-making results completely relying on air comba...Game theory can be applied to the air combat decision-making problem of multiple unmanned combat air vehicles(UCAVs).However,it is difficult to have satisfactory decision-making results completely relying on air combat situation information,because there is a lot of time-sensitive information in a complex air combat environment.In this paper,a constraint strategy game approach is developed to generate intelligent decision-making for multiple UCAVs in complex air combat environment with air combat situation information and time-sensitive information.Initially,a constraint strategy game is employed to model attack-defense decision-making problem in complex air combat environment.Then,an algorithm is proposed for solving the constraint strategy game based on linear programming and linear inequality(CSG-LL).Finally,an example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.展开更多
As to oppositional, multi-objective and hierarchical characteristic of air formation to ground attackdefends campaign, and using dynamic space state model of military campaign, this article establishes a principal and...As to oppositional, multi-objective and hierarchical characteristic of air formation to ground attackdefends campaign, and using dynamic space state model of military campaign, this article establishes a principal and subordinate hierarchical interactive decision-making way, the Nash-Stackelberg-Nash model, to solve the problems in military operation, and find out the associated best strategy in hierarchical dynamic decision-making. The simulating result indicate that when applying the model to air formation to ground attack-defends decision-making system, it can solve the problems of two hierarchies, dynamic oppositional decision-making favorably, and reach preferable effect in battle. It proves that the model can provide an effective way for analyzing a battle,展开更多
变异函数量化了空间2点地质属性的变异性,对地质统计分析至关重要。当地质数据随空间坐标呈现趋势变化时,正确选择和估计变异函数十分困难。为实现变异函数的模型选择和参数估计,提出了基于贝叶斯理论的变异函数选择方法,采用拉普拉斯...变异函数量化了空间2点地质属性的变异性,对地质统计分析至关重要。当地质数据随空间坐标呈现趋势变化时,正确选择和估计变异函数十分困难。为实现变异函数的模型选择和参数估计,提出了基于贝叶斯理论的变异函数选择方法,采用拉普拉斯近似方法将后验概率分布近似为高斯分布。首先计算出参数的后验概率分布,随后分别计算每个备选变异函数的贝叶斯模型证据,以确定最优模型。探讨了3种模型选择方法在变异函数选择中的适用性,包括贝叶斯模型证据(BME)、Akaike information criterion(AIC)识别准则和Bayesian information criterion(BIC)识别准则。通过实测静力触探试验的锥端阻力数据,说明了该方法,并从模型拟合度和复杂度罚值2个方面比较3种方法在变异函数模型选择中的差异性。研究表明,给定试验数据条件下,BME能够合理地考虑变异函数的拟合度和复杂性;而AIC和BIC识别准则在模型参数个数相同时,仅能反映不同变异函数的拟合度差异,因此,在这种情况下推荐采用BME选择变异函数。本研究方法能够在考虑趋势项参数条件下合理地选择地质统计学变异函数,所选最优变异函数与试验变异函数较一致,为地质统计学分析提供了有效的参考。展开更多
在软土地区深基坑工程中,选取合适的土体本构模型并确定参数,对基坑开挖中的变形预测及支护结构优化设计尤为重要。为解决软土地区基坑工程中修正剑桥模型参数难以准确获取的问题,提出基于室内试验-贝叶斯理论的建筑基坑软土参数反演方...在软土地区深基坑工程中,选取合适的土体本构模型并确定参数,对基坑开挖中的变形预测及支护结构优化设计尤为重要。为解决软土地区基坑工程中修正剑桥模型参数难以准确获取的问题,提出基于室内试验-贝叶斯理论的建筑基坑软土参数反演方法。首先,通过室内三轴固结不排水试验及标准固结-回弹试验,获取2种土层的修正剑桥模型参数的试验取值及参数反演区间。其次,利用PLAXIS 3D建立基坑有限元模型,运用极差分析法对2种土层的修正剑桥模型参数进行敏感性分析,得出围护结构侧移、地表沉降和坑底隆起对模型参数的敏感性排序。最后,构建基于现场实测数据的贝叶斯反分析框架,利用马尔科夫蒙特卡洛(Markov Chain Monte Carlo,MCMC)算法获取修正剑桥模型参数在不同开挖阶段的后验分布。研究结果表明,贝叶斯反分析方法可用于修正剑桥模型的参数更新,参数更新后的相对误差与其敏感度相关,敏感度越高的参数更新后误差越大。采用更新后的参数计算基坑开挖引起的围护结构水平位移,并与实际监测值进行对比,计算误差相较于利用室内试验参数进行计算的结果显著减小,说明参数更新能提高反分析参数的准确性,验证了贝叶斯反演方法的可靠性和准确性。研究结果可为基坑工程的设计和施工提供理论依据和技术支持。展开更多
基金the National Natural Science Fundation of China (10377014).
文摘The manner and conditions of running the decision-making system with self-defense electronic jamming are given. After proposing the scenario of applying discrete dynamic Bayesian network to the decision making with self-defense electronic jamming, a decision-making model with self-defense electronic jamming based on the discrete dynamic Bayesian network is established. Then jamming decision inferences by the aid of the algorithm of discrete dynamic Bayesian network are carried on. The simulating result shows that this method is able to synthesize different targets which are not predominant. In this way, various features at the same time, as well as the same feature appearing at different time complement mutually; in addition, the accuracy and reliability of electronic jamming decision making are enhanced significantly.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.11972193 and 92266201)。
文摘How to effectively evaluate the firing precision of weapon equipment at low cost is one of the core contents of improving the test level of weapon system.A new method to evaluate the firing precision of the MLRS considering the credibility of simulation system based on Bayesian theory is proposed in this paper.First of all,a comprehensive index system for the credibility of the simulation system of the firing precision of the MLRS is constructed combined with the group analytic hierarchy process.A modified method for determining the comprehensive weight of the index is established to improve the rationality of the index weight coefficients.The Bayesian posterior estimation formula of firing precision considering prior information is derived in the form of mixed prior distribution,and the rationality of prior information used in estimation model is discussed quantitatively.With the simulation tests,the different evaluation methods are compared to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.Finally,the experimental results show that the effectiveness of estimation method for firing precision is improved by more than 25%.
基金supported by Major Projects for Science and Technology Innovation 2030(Grant No.2018AA0100800)Equipment Pre-research Foundation of Laboratory(Grant No.61425040104)in part by Jiangsu Province“333”project under Grant BRA2019051.
文摘Game theory can be applied to the air combat decision-making problem of multiple unmanned combat air vehicles(UCAVs).However,it is difficult to have satisfactory decision-making results completely relying on air combat situation information,because there is a lot of time-sensitive information in a complex air combat environment.In this paper,a constraint strategy game approach is developed to generate intelligent decision-making for multiple UCAVs in complex air combat environment with air combat situation information and time-sensitive information.Initially,a constraint strategy game is employed to model attack-defense decision-making problem in complex air combat environment.Then,an algorithm is proposed for solving the constraint strategy game based on linear programming and linear inequality(CSG-LL).Finally,an example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.
基金College Doctor Foundation (20060699026)Aviation Basic Scientific Foundation (05D53021).
文摘As to oppositional, multi-objective and hierarchical characteristic of air formation to ground attackdefends campaign, and using dynamic space state model of military campaign, this article establishes a principal and subordinate hierarchical interactive decision-making way, the Nash-Stackelberg-Nash model, to solve the problems in military operation, and find out the associated best strategy in hierarchical dynamic decision-making. The simulating result indicate that when applying the model to air formation to ground attack-defends decision-making system, it can solve the problems of two hierarchies, dynamic oppositional decision-making favorably, and reach preferable effect in battle. It proves that the model can provide an effective way for analyzing a battle,
文摘变异函数量化了空间2点地质属性的变异性,对地质统计分析至关重要。当地质数据随空间坐标呈现趋势变化时,正确选择和估计变异函数十分困难。为实现变异函数的模型选择和参数估计,提出了基于贝叶斯理论的变异函数选择方法,采用拉普拉斯近似方法将后验概率分布近似为高斯分布。首先计算出参数的后验概率分布,随后分别计算每个备选变异函数的贝叶斯模型证据,以确定最优模型。探讨了3种模型选择方法在变异函数选择中的适用性,包括贝叶斯模型证据(BME)、Akaike information criterion(AIC)识别准则和Bayesian information criterion(BIC)识别准则。通过实测静力触探试验的锥端阻力数据,说明了该方法,并从模型拟合度和复杂度罚值2个方面比较3种方法在变异函数模型选择中的差异性。研究表明,给定试验数据条件下,BME能够合理地考虑变异函数的拟合度和复杂性;而AIC和BIC识别准则在模型参数个数相同时,仅能反映不同变异函数的拟合度差异,因此,在这种情况下推荐采用BME选择变异函数。本研究方法能够在考虑趋势项参数条件下合理地选择地质统计学变异函数,所选最优变异函数与试验变异函数较一致,为地质统计学分析提供了有效的参考。
文摘在软土地区深基坑工程中,选取合适的土体本构模型并确定参数,对基坑开挖中的变形预测及支护结构优化设计尤为重要。为解决软土地区基坑工程中修正剑桥模型参数难以准确获取的问题,提出基于室内试验-贝叶斯理论的建筑基坑软土参数反演方法。首先,通过室内三轴固结不排水试验及标准固结-回弹试验,获取2种土层的修正剑桥模型参数的试验取值及参数反演区间。其次,利用PLAXIS 3D建立基坑有限元模型,运用极差分析法对2种土层的修正剑桥模型参数进行敏感性分析,得出围护结构侧移、地表沉降和坑底隆起对模型参数的敏感性排序。最后,构建基于现场实测数据的贝叶斯反分析框架,利用马尔科夫蒙特卡洛(Markov Chain Monte Carlo,MCMC)算法获取修正剑桥模型参数在不同开挖阶段的后验分布。研究结果表明,贝叶斯反分析方法可用于修正剑桥模型的参数更新,参数更新后的相对误差与其敏感度相关,敏感度越高的参数更新后误差越大。采用更新后的参数计算基坑开挖引起的围护结构水平位移,并与实际监测值进行对比,计算误差相较于利用室内试验参数进行计算的结果显著减小,说明参数更新能提高反分析参数的准确性,验证了贝叶斯反演方法的可靠性和准确性。研究结果可为基坑工程的设计和施工提供理论依据和技术支持。
