针对混频数据的建模问题,提出自回归U-MIDAS(unrestricted mixed data sampling)分位回归模型.首先,结合嵌套Lasso惩罚方法及spike-and-slab先验进行Bayes参数估计和变量选择;其次,通过数值模拟证明该方法的优越性;最后,将该方法用于美...针对混频数据的建模问题,提出自回归U-MIDAS(unrestricted mixed data sampling)分位回归模型.首先,结合嵌套Lasso惩罚方法及spike-and-slab先验进行Bayes参数估计和变量选择;其次,通过数值模拟证明该方法的优越性;最后,将该方法用于美国名义国内生产总值(GDP)年化季度增长率的预测,结果表明,该方法预测精度较好.展开更多
How to effectively evaluate the firing precision of weapon equipment at low cost is one of the core contents of improving the test level of weapon system.A new method to evaluate the firing precision of the MLRS consi...How to effectively evaluate the firing precision of weapon equipment at low cost is one of the core contents of improving the test level of weapon system.A new method to evaluate the firing precision of the MLRS considering the credibility of simulation system based on Bayesian theory is proposed in this paper.First of all,a comprehensive index system for the credibility of the simulation system of the firing precision of the MLRS is constructed combined with the group analytic hierarchy process.A modified method for determining the comprehensive weight of the index is established to improve the rationality of the index weight coefficients.The Bayesian posterior estimation formula of firing precision considering prior information is derived in the form of mixed prior distribution,and the rationality of prior information used in estimation model is discussed quantitatively.With the simulation tests,the different evaluation methods are compared to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.Finally,the experimental results show that the effectiveness of estimation method for firing precision is improved by more than 25%.展开更多
Aiming at the characteristics of multi-stage and(extremely)small samples of the identification problem of key effectiveness indexes of weapon equipment system-of-systems(WESoS),a Bayesian intelligent identification an...Aiming at the characteristics of multi-stage and(extremely)small samples of the identification problem of key effectiveness indexes of weapon equipment system-of-systems(WESoS),a Bayesian intelligent identification and inference model for system effectiveness assessment indexes based on dynamic grey incidence is proposed.The method uses multi-layer Bayesian techniques,makes full use of historical statistics and empirical information,and determines the Bayesian estima-tion of the incidence degree of indexes,which effectively solves the difficulties of small sample size of effectiveness indexes and difficulty in obtaining incidence rules between indexes.Sec-ondly,The method quantifies the incidence relationship between evaluation indexes and combat effectiveness based on Bayesian posterior grey incidence,and then identifies key system effec-tiveness evaluation indexes.Finally,the proposed method is applied to a case of screening key effectiveness indexes of a missile defensive system,and the analysis results show that the proposed method can fuse multi-moment information and extract multi-stage key indexes,and has good data extraction capability in the case of small samples.展开更多
We have examined the theoretical implications of combining two main and three auxiliary ligands to form several Ir(Ⅲ)complexes featuring a transition metal as their core atom to identify some appropriate organic ligh...We have examined the theoretical implications of combining two main and three auxiliary ligands to form several Ir(Ⅲ)complexes featuring a transition metal as their core atom to identify some appropriate organic lightemitting diode(OLED)materials.By utilizing electronic structure,frontier molecular orbitals,minimum single-line absorption,triplet excited states,and emission spectral data derived from the density functional theory,the usefulness of these Ir(Ⅲ)complexes,including(piq)_(2)Ir(acac),(piq)_(2)Ir(tmd),(piq)_(2)Ir(tpip),(fpiq)_(2)Ir(acac),(fpiq)_(2)Ir(tmd),and(fpiq)_(2)Ir(tpip),in OLEDs was examined,where piq=1-phenylisoquinoline,fpiq=1-(4-fluorophenyl)isoquinoline,acac=(3Z)-4-hydroxypent-3-en-2-one,tmd=(4Z)-5-hydroxy-2,2,6,6-tetramethylhept-4-en-3-one,and tpip=tetraphenylimido-diphosphonate.These complexes all have low-efficiency roll-off properties,especially(fpiq)_(2)Ir(tpip).Some researchers have successfully synthesized complexes extremely similar to(piq)_(2)Ir(acac)through the Suzuki-Miyaura coupling reaction.展开更多
The intersection is a widely used traffic line structure from the shallow tunnel to the deep roadway,and determining the subsidence hidden danger area of the roof is the key to its stability control.However,applying t...The intersection is a widely used traffic line structure from the shallow tunnel to the deep roadway,and determining the subsidence hidden danger area of the roof is the key to its stability control.However,applying traditional maximum equivalent span beam(MESB)theory to determine deformation range,peak point,and angle influence poses a challenge.Considering the overall structure of the intersection roof,the maximum equivalent triangular plate(METP)theory is proposed,and its geometric parameter calculation formula and deflection calculation formula are obtained.The application of the two theories in 18 models with different intersection angles,roadway types,and surrounding rock lithology is verified by numerical analysis.The results show that:1)The METP structure of the intersection roof established by the simulation results of each model successfully determined the location of the roof’s high displacement zone;2)The area comparison method of the METP theory can be reasonably explained:①The roof subsidence of the intersection decreases with the increase of the intersection angle;②The roof subsidence at the intersection of different roadway types has a rectangular type>arch type>circular type;③The roof subsidence of the intersection with weak surrounding rock is significantly larger than that of the intersection with hard surrounding rock.According to the application results of the two theories,the four advantages of the METP theory are compared and clarified in the basic assumptions,mechanical models,main viewpoints,and mechanism analysis.The large deformation inducement of the intersection roof is then explored.The J 2 peak area of the roof drives the large deformation of the area,the peak point of which is consistent with the center of gravity position of the METP.Furthermore,the change in the range of this peak is consistent with the change law of the METP’s area.Hence,this theory clarifies the large deformation area of the intersection roof,which provides a clear guiding basis for its initial support design,mid-term monitoring,and late local reinforcement.展开更多
文摘针对混频数据的建模问题,提出自回归U-MIDAS(unrestricted mixed data sampling)分位回归模型.首先,结合嵌套Lasso惩罚方法及spike-and-slab先验进行Bayes参数估计和变量选择;其次,通过数值模拟证明该方法的优越性;最后,将该方法用于美国名义国内生产总值(GDP)年化季度增长率的预测,结果表明,该方法预测精度较好.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.11972193 and 92266201)。
文摘How to effectively evaluate the firing precision of weapon equipment at low cost is one of the core contents of improving the test level of weapon system.A new method to evaluate the firing precision of the MLRS considering the credibility of simulation system based on Bayesian theory is proposed in this paper.First of all,a comprehensive index system for the credibility of the simulation system of the firing precision of the MLRS is constructed combined with the group analytic hierarchy process.A modified method for determining the comprehensive weight of the index is established to improve the rationality of the index weight coefficients.The Bayesian posterior estimation formula of firing precision considering prior information is derived in the form of mixed prior distribution,and the rationality of prior information used in estimation model is discussed quantitatively.With the simulation tests,the different evaluation methods are compared to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.Finally,the experimental results show that the effectiveness of estimation method for firing precision is improved by more than 25%.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(72271124,72071111).
文摘Aiming at the characteristics of multi-stage and(extremely)small samples of the identification problem of key effectiveness indexes of weapon equipment system-of-systems(WESoS),a Bayesian intelligent identification and inference model for system effectiveness assessment indexes based on dynamic grey incidence is proposed.The method uses multi-layer Bayesian techniques,makes full use of historical statistics and empirical information,and determines the Bayesian estima-tion of the incidence degree of indexes,which effectively solves the difficulties of small sample size of effectiveness indexes and difficulty in obtaining incidence rules between indexes.Sec-ondly,The method quantifies the incidence relationship between evaluation indexes and combat effectiveness based on Bayesian posterior grey incidence,and then identifies key system effec-tiveness evaluation indexes.Finally,the proposed method is applied to a case of screening key effectiveness indexes of a missile defensive system,and the analysis results show that the proposed method can fuse multi-moment information and extract multi-stage key indexes,and has good data extraction capability in the case of small samples.
文摘We have examined the theoretical implications of combining two main and three auxiliary ligands to form several Ir(Ⅲ)complexes featuring a transition metal as their core atom to identify some appropriate organic lightemitting diode(OLED)materials.By utilizing electronic structure,frontier molecular orbitals,minimum single-line absorption,triplet excited states,and emission spectral data derived from the density functional theory,the usefulness of these Ir(Ⅲ)complexes,including(piq)_(2)Ir(acac),(piq)_(2)Ir(tmd),(piq)_(2)Ir(tpip),(fpiq)_(2)Ir(acac),(fpiq)_(2)Ir(tmd),and(fpiq)_(2)Ir(tpip),in OLEDs was examined,where piq=1-phenylisoquinoline,fpiq=1-(4-fluorophenyl)isoquinoline,acac=(3Z)-4-hydroxypent-3-en-2-one,tmd=(4Z)-5-hydroxy-2,2,6,6-tetramethylhept-4-en-3-one,and tpip=tetraphenylimido-diphosphonate.These complexes all have low-efficiency roll-off properties,especially(fpiq)_(2)Ir(tpip).Some researchers have successfully synthesized complexes extremely similar to(piq)_(2)Ir(acac)through the Suzuki-Miyaura coupling reaction.
基金Project(52204164)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2021QNRC001)supported by the Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program by CAST,China。
文摘The intersection is a widely used traffic line structure from the shallow tunnel to the deep roadway,and determining the subsidence hidden danger area of the roof is the key to its stability control.However,applying traditional maximum equivalent span beam(MESB)theory to determine deformation range,peak point,and angle influence poses a challenge.Considering the overall structure of the intersection roof,the maximum equivalent triangular plate(METP)theory is proposed,and its geometric parameter calculation formula and deflection calculation formula are obtained.The application of the two theories in 18 models with different intersection angles,roadway types,and surrounding rock lithology is verified by numerical analysis.The results show that:1)The METP structure of the intersection roof established by the simulation results of each model successfully determined the location of the roof’s high displacement zone;2)The area comparison method of the METP theory can be reasonably explained:①The roof subsidence of the intersection decreases with the increase of the intersection angle;②The roof subsidence at the intersection of different roadway types has a rectangular type>arch type>circular type;③The roof subsidence of the intersection with weak surrounding rock is significantly larger than that of the intersection with hard surrounding rock.According to the application results of the two theories,the four advantages of the METP theory are compared and clarified in the basic assumptions,mechanical models,main viewpoints,and mechanism analysis.The large deformation inducement of the intersection roof is then explored.The J 2 peak area of the roof drives the large deformation of the area,the peak point of which is consistent with the center of gravity position of the METP.Furthermore,the change in the range of this peak is consistent with the change law of the METP’s area.Hence,this theory clarifies the large deformation area of the intersection roof,which provides a clear guiding basis for its initial support design,mid-term monitoring,and late local reinforcement.
