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三种水文模型不确定性分析方法比较 被引量:5
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作者 陈昌军 郑雄伟 张卫飞 《水文》 CSCD 北大核心 2012年第2期16-20,共5页
模型不确定性研究是水文科学的重要课题。以尼泊尔Bagmati流域为案例,采用了马尔科夫链蒙托卡罗(Markov Chain Monte Carlo)、蒙托卡罗(Monte Carlo)和拉丁超立方体(Latin Hypercube)等三种方法,分析了水箱模型输出成果的不确定性,并将... 模型不确定性研究是水文科学的重要课题。以尼泊尔Bagmati流域为案例,采用了马尔科夫链蒙托卡罗(Markov Chain Monte Carlo)、蒙托卡罗(Monte Carlo)和拉丁超立方体(Latin Hypercube)等三种方法,分析了水箱模型输出成果的不确定性,并将三种方法所获得参数不确定性进行了比较。另外,运用Meta-Gaussian模型计算了总体不确定性,在基于所采用的似然函数基础上,对由参数导致模型输出的不确定性和模型输出的总体不确定性进行了比较。结果显示,模型的不确定性比参数不确定性更为重要,同时也表明,尽管蒙托卡罗和拉丁超立方体两种模拟方法产生几乎相同的结果,但两者都与马尔科夫链蒙托卡罗方法有很大的不同。 展开更多
关键词 马尔科夫链蒙托卡罗 拉丁超立方体 水文模型 不确定性 bagmati流域
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THRUST PACKAGES OF 1.68 Ga INDIAN SUPRA-CRUSTAL ROCKS IN THE MIOCENE SIWALIK BELT,CENTRAL NEPAL HIMALAYAS
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作者 Harutaka Sakai\+1,Yutaka Takigami\+2,B.N.Upreti\+3,D.P.Adhikary\+3 2.Kanto Gakuen University,Ohta\|shi,Gunma,373\|8515 Japan 3.Department of Geology,Tri\|Chan 《地学前缘》 EI CAS CSCD 2000年第S1期64-66,共3页
The Siwalik Belt is a frontal fold\|thrust belt of the Himalayas and composed of thick sequence of foreland basin sediments derived from the Himalayas during the last 15 to 17 million years.From this Miocene belt in t... The Siwalik Belt is a frontal fold\|thrust belt of the Himalayas and composed of thick sequence of foreland basin sediments derived from the Himalayas during the last 15 to 17 million years.From this Miocene belt in the central Nepal,we discovered exotic thrust packages of the Middle Proterozoic rocks,which has been regarded as the Siwalik Group or post\|collisional sediments correlatable with the Subathu or Murree Formation in India.The thrust belt,called the Bagmati Belt,is narrowly distributed in the Siwalik Belt,22km to the north of the Main Frontal Thrust (MFT or HFF) that is an active fault and considered to be the deformation front of the Himalayan orogen.The Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) which separates the Siwalik Belt from the Lesser Himalayan Belt runs 7km to the north of the thrust packages.Within the belt,tectonic slices of 400m to 1km in thickness are repeated three to five times due to thrusts,sandwiching a thin slice of the Siwalik beds.The thrust package consists of the pre\|Siwalik sedimetary rocks and sills of dolerite,and named as the Bagmati Group.The thickness is only about 800m due to tectonic repition by thrust,although the group has been considered to be a continuous sequence attaining 2200m in thickness.We divided the Bagmati Group into three formations,each of which shows an upward\|coarsening and thickening sequence of 200 to 350m in thickness.All sequence is composed of red\|brown orthoquartzite,pink quartzite,micaceous shale and thin sandstone interbed and rhythmite,mottled hematite and hematitic pisolite.We interpret that the Bagmati Group was deposited in shallow lacustrine and desert environments. 展开更多
关键词 THRUST package the bagmati Group the Siwalik BELT CENTRAL Nepal HIMALAYA
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