A method to forecast the over-excavation of underground opening by using the Bayes discriminant analysis(BDA)theory was presented.The Bayes discriminant analysis theory was introduced.Based on an engineering example,t...A method to forecast the over-excavation of underground opening by using the Bayes discriminant analysis(BDA)theory was presented.The Bayes discriminant analysis theory was introduced.Based on an engineering example,the factors influencing the over-excavation of underground opening were taken into account to build a forecast BDA model,and the prior information about over-excavation of underground opening was also taken into consideration.Five parameters influencing the over-excavation of opening,including 2 groups of joints,1 group of layer surface,extension and space between structure faces were selected as geometric parameters.Engineering data in an underground opening were used as the training samples.The cross-validation method was introduced to verify the stability of BDA model and the ratio of mistake-discrimination was equal to zero after the BDA model was trained.Data in an underground engineering were used to test the discriminant ability of BDA model.The results show that five forecast results are identical with the actual situation and BDA can be used in practical engineering.展开更多
In order to forecast promising technologies in the field of next generation mobile communication, various patent indicators were analyzed such as citation per patent, patent family information, patent share, increase ...In order to forecast promising technologies in the field of next generation mobile communication, various patent indicators were analyzed such as citation per patent, patent family information, patent share, increase rate, and patent activity. These indicators were quantified into several indexes and then integrated into an evaluation score to provide promising technologies. As a result of the suggested patent analysis, four technologies out of twenty two in details classification were selected, which showed outstanding technology competitiveness, high patent share and increasing rates as well as high recent-patent-ratios and triad-patent-family-ratios. Each of the selected technologies scored more than 10 points in total, and the following four technologies were suggested as promising ones in the field of next generation mobile communication: 1) 3GPP based mobile communication, 2) beyond 4G mobile communication, 3) IEEE 802.16 based mobile communication, which are in medium classification of broadband mobile communication system, and 4) testing/certification system of mobile communication, which is in medium classification of mobile communication testing/certification system.展开更多
To solve the problem of the flashover forecasting of contaminated or polluted insulator,a flashover forecasting model of contaminated insulators based on nonlinear time series analysis is proposed in the paper.The ESD...To solve the problem of the flashover forecasting of contaminated or polluted insulator,a flashover forecasting model of contaminated insulators based on nonlinear time series analysis is proposed in the paper.The ESDD is the key of flashover on polluted insulator.The ESDD value of insulator can be forecasted by the method of nonlinear time series analysis of the ESDD time series and a forecasting model of polluted insulator flashover is proposed in the paper.The forecasting model consists of two artificial neural networks that reflect relationship of environment,ESDD and flashover probability.The first is used to estimate the ESDD time series of insulator and the second is employed to calculate the probability of the flashover.A series of artificial pollution tests show that the results of the forecasting model is acceptable.展开更多
The paper builds up the forecasting model of air temperature according to the data (1994～1998) of Fu Jin area.At the same time,the writer inquires into the relation of water requirement of well irrigation rice (ET) a...The paper builds up the forecasting model of air temperature according to the data (1994～1998) of Fu Jin area.At the same time,the writer inquires into the relation of water requirement of well irrigation rice (ET) and average air temperature (T).Furthermore,the rice irrigation water requirement (ET) of Fu Jin area has been forecast in 1999.Thus,we can apply the model in irrigation management.展开更多
Power load forecasting accuracy related to the development of the power system. There were so many factors influencing the power load, but their effects were not the same and what factors played a leading role could n...Power load forecasting accuracy related to the development of the power system. There were so many factors influencing the power load, but their effects were not the same and what factors played a leading role could not be determined empirically. Based on the analysis of the principal component, the paper forecasted the demands of power load with the method of the multivariate linear regression model prediction. Took the rural power grid load for example, the paper analyzed the impacts of different factors on power load, selected the forecast methods which were appropriate for using in this area, forecasted its 2014-2018 electricity load, and provided a reliable basis for grid planning.展开更多
on the basis of analyzing the characteristics of low light level(LLL)image and ultra-violet image and the information amount of dual channel color night vision system,the LLL and ultra-violet color night vision techni...on the basis of analyzing the characteristics of low light level(LLL)image and ultra-violet image and the information amount of dual channel color night vision system,the LLL and ultra-violet color night vision technique is put forward.The methods of gray-scale modulation,frequency field fusion,special component fusion arc tried,and the improved LLL and ultra-violet image pseudo color fusion algorithms are presented.These new algorithms include subsection gray-scale modulation,image difference picking-up,component separation based on the reflected characteristics to night skylight reflection characteristics of objects and color space mapping which embodies the spectrum response of image sensor and nature vision.Some good results are obtained.展开更多
A comprehensive assessing method based on the principle of the gray system theory and gray relational grade analysis was put forward to optimize water consumption forecasting models. The method provides a better accur...A comprehensive assessing method based on the principle of the gray system theory and gray relational grade analysis was put forward to optimize water consumption forecasting models. The method provides a better accuracy for the assessment and the optimal selection of the water consumption forecasting models. The results show that the forecasting model built on this comprehensive assessing method presents better self-adaptability and accuracy in forecasting.展开更多
A combined model based on principal components analysis (PCA) and generalized regression neural network (GRNN) was adopted to forecast electricity price in day-ahead electricity market. PCA was applied to mine the mai...A combined model based on principal components analysis (PCA) and generalized regression neural network (GRNN) was adopted to forecast electricity price in day-ahead electricity market. PCA was applied to mine the main influence on day-ahead price, avoiding the strong correlation between the input factors that might influence electricity price, such as the load of the forecasting hour, other history loads and prices, weather and temperature; then GRNN was employed to forecast electricity price according to the main information extracted by PCA. To prove the efficiency of the combined model, a case from PJM (Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland) day-ahead electricity market was evaluated. Compared to back-propagation (BP) neural network and standard GRNN, the combined method reduces the mean absolute percentage error about 3%.展开更多
The general structure of ship-borne helicopter landing forecast system is presented, and a novel ship motion prediction model based on minor component analysis (MCA) is built up to improve the forecast effectiveness. ...The general structure of ship-borne helicopter landing forecast system is presented, and a novel ship motion prediction model based on minor component analysis (MCA) is built up to improve the forecast effectiveness. To validate the feasibility of this landing forecast system, time series for the roll, pitch and heave are generated by simulation and then forecasted based on MCA. Simulation results show that ship-borne helicopters can land safely in higher sea condition while carrying on rescue or replenishment tasks at sea in terms of the landing forecast system.展开更多
目的分析老年穿支动脉粥样硬化病患者血清微小RNA(micorRNA,miRNA)预测早期神经功能恶化的回归分析。方法选择2020年2月至2023年2月湖北医药学院附属随州市中心医院神经内科收治的老年穿支动脉粥样硬化病患者134例,依据早期神经功能恶...目的分析老年穿支动脉粥样硬化病患者血清微小RNA(micorRNA,miRNA)预测早期神经功能恶化的回归分析。方法选择2020年2月至2023年2月湖北医药学院附属随州市中心医院神经内科收治的老年穿支动脉粥样硬化病患者134例,依据早期神经功能恶化情况分为恶化组28例和未恶化组106例。入院时测定患者血清miR-130a、miR-210、miR-141-3p、miR-29a-3p水平,入院时及入院后7 d采用美国国立卫生研究院卒中量表(National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale,NIHSS)评分评估早期神经功能恶化情况。采用二元logistic回归分析法构建miR-130a、miR-210、miR-141-3p、miR-29a-3p预测老年穿支动脉粥样硬化病患者早期神经功能恶化模型,ROC曲线分析血清miR-130a、miR-210、miR-141-3p、miR-29a-3p水平对老年穿支动脉粥样硬化病患者早期神经功能恶化的预测价值。结果恶化组血清miR-130a、miR-210水平明显高于未恶化组,miR-141-3p、miR-29a-3p水平明显低于未恶化组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.01)。Logistic回归分析显示,血清miR-130a、miR-210、miR-141-3p、miR-29a-3p水平为老年穿支动脉粥样硬化病患者早期神经功能恶化的独立预测指标(P<0.05,P<0.01)。ROC曲线分析显示,血清miR-130a、miR-210、miR-141-3p、miR-29a-3p联合预测老年穿支动脉粥样硬化病患者早期神经功能恶化的曲线下面积为0.977(95%CI:0.936~0.995),敏感性为96.43%,特异性为90.57%,联合预测的效能明显优于各指标单独预测(P<0.01)。结论老年穿支动脉粥样硬化病患者血清miR-130a、miR-210、miR-141-3p、miR-29a-3p对预测早期神经功能恶化具有一定的价值,且四者联合检测可提高其预测效能。展开更多
基金Project(50490274)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘A method to forecast the over-excavation of underground opening by using the Bayes discriminant analysis(BDA)theory was presented.The Bayes discriminant analysis theory was introduced.Based on an engineering example,the factors influencing the over-excavation of underground opening were taken into account to build a forecast BDA model,and the prior information about over-excavation of underground opening was also taken into consideration.Five parameters influencing the over-excavation of opening,including 2 groups of joints,1 group of layer surface,extension and space between structure faces were selected as geometric parameters.Engineering data in an underground opening were used as the training samples.The cross-validation method was introduced to verify the stability of BDA model and the ratio of mistake-discrimination was equal to zero after the BDA model was trained.Data in an underground engineering were used to test the discriminant ability of BDA model.The results show that five forecast results are identical with the actual situation and BDA can be used in practical engineering.
文摘In order to forecast promising technologies in the field of next generation mobile communication, various patent indicators were analyzed such as citation per patent, patent family information, patent share, increase rate, and patent activity. These indicators were quantified into several indexes and then integrated into an evaluation score to provide promising technologies. As a result of the suggested patent analysis, four technologies out of twenty two in details classification were selected, which showed outstanding technology competitiveness, high patent share and increasing rates as well as high recent-patent-ratios and triad-patent-family-ratios. Each of the selected technologies scored more than 10 points in total, and the following four technologies were suggested as promising ones in the field of next generation mobile communication: 1) 3GPP based mobile communication, 2) beyond 4G mobile communication, 3) IEEE 802.16 based mobile communication, which are in medium classification of broadband mobile communication system, and 4) testing/certification system of mobile communication, which is in medium classification of mobile communication testing/certification system.
基金Project Supported by Cultiration Found of the Key Scientific and Technical Innovation Project,Ministry of Education of China(707018)
文摘To solve the problem of the flashover forecasting of contaminated or polluted insulator,a flashover forecasting model of contaminated insulators based on nonlinear time series analysis is proposed in the paper.The ESDD is the key of flashover on polluted insulator.The ESDD value of insulator can be forecasted by the method of nonlinear time series analysis of the ESDD time series and a forecasting model of polluted insulator flashover is proposed in the paper.The forecasting model consists of two artificial neural networks that reflect relationship of environment,ESDD and flashover probability.The first is used to estimate the ESDD time series of insulator and the second is employed to calculate the probability of the flashover.A series of artificial pollution tests show that the results of the forecasting model is acceptable.
基金Funditem:China Postdoctoral Science Fund(2 0 0 0 ).The Youth Fund of Sichuan U niversity.(43 2 0 2 8)
文摘The paper builds up the forecasting model of air temperature according to the data (1994～1998) of Fu Jin area.At the same time,the writer inquires into the relation of water requirement of well irrigation rice (ET) and average air temperature (T).Furthermore,the rice irrigation water requirement (ET) of Fu Jin area has been forecast in 1999.Thus,we can apply the model in irrigation management.
基金Supported by the Science and Technology Research Project Fund of Provincial Department of Education(12531004)Project of Heilongjiang Leading Talent Echelon Talented(2012)
文摘Power load forecasting accuracy related to the development of the power system. There were so many factors influencing the power load, but their effects were not the same and what factors played a leading role could not be determined empirically. Based on the analysis of the principal component, the paper forecasted the demands of power load with the method of the multivariate linear regression model prediction. Took the rural power grid load for example, the paper analyzed the impacts of different factors on power load, selected the forecast methods which were appropriate for using in this area, forecasted its 2014-2018 electricity load, and provided a reliable basis for grid planning.
文摘on the basis of analyzing the characteristics of low light level(LLL)image and ultra-violet image and the information amount of dual channel color night vision system,the LLL and ultra-violet color night vision technique is put forward.The methods of gray-scale modulation,frequency field fusion,special component fusion arc tried,and the improved LLL and ultra-violet image pseudo color fusion algorithms are presented.These new algorithms include subsection gray-scale modulation,image difference picking-up,component separation based on the reflected characteristics to night skylight reflection characteristics of objects and color space mapping which embodies the spectrum response of image sensor and nature vision.Some good results are obtained.
基金Project(2003BA808A15-2-4) supported by the National Scientific and Technologies Key Task Program
文摘A comprehensive assessing method based on the principle of the gray system theory and gray relational grade analysis was put forward to optimize water consumption forecasting models. The method provides a better accuracy for the assessment and the optimal selection of the water consumption forecasting models. The results show that the forecasting model built on this comprehensive assessing method presents better self-adaptability and accuracy in forecasting.
基金Project(70671039) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘A combined model based on principal components analysis (PCA) and generalized regression neural network (GRNN) was adopted to forecast electricity price in day-ahead electricity market. PCA was applied to mine the main influence on day-ahead price, avoiding the strong correlation between the input factors that might influence electricity price, such as the load of the forecasting hour, other history loads and prices, weather and temperature; then GRNN was employed to forecast electricity price according to the main information extracted by PCA. To prove the efficiency of the combined model, a case from PJM (Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland) day-ahead electricity market was evaluated. Compared to back-propagation (BP) neural network and standard GRNN, the combined method reduces the mean absolute percentage error about 3%.
文摘The general structure of ship-borne helicopter landing forecast system is presented, and a novel ship motion prediction model based on minor component analysis (MCA) is built up to improve the forecast effectiveness. To validate the feasibility of this landing forecast system, time series for the roll, pitch and heave are generated by simulation and then forecasted based on MCA. Simulation results show that ship-borne helicopters can land safely in higher sea condition while carrying on rescue or replenishment tasks at sea in terms of the landing forecast system.
文摘目的分析老年穿支动脉粥样硬化病患者血清微小RNA(micorRNA,miRNA)预测早期神经功能恶化的回归分析。方法选择2020年2月至2023年2月湖北医药学院附属随州市中心医院神经内科收治的老年穿支动脉粥样硬化病患者134例,依据早期神经功能恶化情况分为恶化组28例和未恶化组106例。入院时测定患者血清miR-130a、miR-210、miR-141-3p、miR-29a-3p水平,入院时及入院后7 d采用美国国立卫生研究院卒中量表(National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale,NIHSS)评分评估早期神经功能恶化情况。采用二元logistic回归分析法构建miR-130a、miR-210、miR-141-3p、miR-29a-3p预测老年穿支动脉粥样硬化病患者早期神经功能恶化模型,ROC曲线分析血清miR-130a、miR-210、miR-141-3p、miR-29a-3p水平对老年穿支动脉粥样硬化病患者早期神经功能恶化的预测价值。结果恶化组血清miR-130a、miR-210水平明显高于未恶化组,miR-141-3p、miR-29a-3p水平明显低于未恶化组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.01)。Logistic回归分析显示,血清miR-130a、miR-210、miR-141-3p、miR-29a-3p水平为老年穿支动脉粥样硬化病患者早期神经功能恶化的独立预测指标(P<0.05,P<0.01)。ROC曲线分析显示,血清miR-130a、miR-210、miR-141-3p、miR-29a-3p联合预测老年穿支动脉粥样硬化病患者早期神经功能恶化的曲线下面积为0.977(95%CI:0.936~0.995),敏感性为96.43%,特异性为90.57%,联合预测的效能明显优于各指标单独预测(P<0.01)。结论老年穿支动脉粥样硬化病患者血清miR-130a、miR-210、miR-141-3p、miR-29a-3p对预测早期神经功能恶化具有一定的价值,且四者联合检测可提高其预测效能。
