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Solving resource availability cost problem in project scheduling by pseudo particle swarm optimization 被引量:4
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作者 Jianjun Qi Bo Guo +1 位作者 Hongtao Lei Tao Zhang 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2014年第1期69-76,共8页
This paper considers a project scheduling problem with the objective of minimizing resource availability costs appealed to finish al activities before the deadline. There are finish-start type precedence relations amo... This paper considers a project scheduling problem with the objective of minimizing resource availability costs appealed to finish al activities before the deadline. There are finish-start type precedence relations among the activities which require some kinds of renewable resources. We predigest the process of sol-ving the resource availability cost problem (RACP) by using start time of each activity to code the schedule. Then, a novel heuris-tic algorithm is proposed to make the process of looking for the best solution efficiently. And then pseudo particle swarm optimiza-tion (PPSO) combined with PSO and path relinking procedure is presented to solve the RACP. Final y, comparative computational experiments are designed and the computational results show that the proposed method is very effective to solve RACP. 展开更多
关键词 project scheduling resource availability cost problem(RACP) HEURISTICS particle swarm optimization (PSO) path relin-king.
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Effects of Different Oligosaccharides on Performance and Availability of Nutrients in Broilers 被引量:3
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作者 GAOYing SHANAn-shan 《Journal of Northeast Agricultural University(English Edition)》 CAS 2004年第1期37-41,共5页
One hundred and forty-four Avin broilers (1 d of age) were randomly divided into six groups, with three replicates of eight birds each to study on the effects of different oligosaccharides on performance and availabil... One hundred and forty-four Avin broilers (1 d of age) were randomly divided into six groups, with three replicates of eight birds each to study on the effects of different oligosaccharides on performance and availability of nutrients in broilers. The control group(Group I)was fed with corn-soybean meal as basal diet, and the trial groups (Group II, III, IV,V and VI) were fed with basal diet plus 0.1% Manoligosaccharides(MOS), 0.3% Soybean-Oligosaccharides(SBOS), 0.3% Fructo-oligosaccharides(FOS), 0.3% α-Glucooligosaccharides(α-GOS) and 50 mg·L-1 Chlortetracycline(CTC), respectively. The results showed that the supplementation of oligosaccharides slightly improved daily gain and feed intake. SBOS supplementation improved, but MOS and α-GOS significantly decreased availability of energy. Oligosaccharides supplementation improved availability of energy, phosphorus, calcium, magnesium and iron, and significantly increased cholesterol content of fecal, and did not affect on availability of protein and cholesterol contents in serum and muscle. Availability of phosphorus of broilers fed with FOS was much higher than that with α-GOS. SBOS supplementation remarkably increased availability of iron. 展开更多
关键词 OLIGOSACCHARIDES PERFORMANCE availability of nutrients BROILERS
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Availability modelling for periodically inspected systems under mixed maintenance policies 被引量:2
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作者 LI Junliang CHEN Yueliang +2 位作者 ZHANG Yong ZHANG Zhuzhu FAN Weijie 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2021年第3期722-730,共9页
The availability of a periodic inspection system under mixed maintenance policies is studied in this paper.To accommodate the characteristic of multiple failure modes for complex systems,the system failures can be div... The availability of a periodic inspection system under mixed maintenance policies is studied in this paper.To accommodate the characteristic of multiple failure modes for complex systems,the system failures can be divided into two failure modes:hard failure and soft failure.When hard failure occurs,the corresponding corrective maintenance will be performed,taking a random time under the perfect maintenance policy;in contrast,if the soft failure is found,the corresponding preventive maintenance will be performed,taking a random time under the imperfect maintenance policy.The dynamic age setback model is adopted for imperfect maintenance,which can accurately reflect the fault characteristics of the degraded system.Then an analytical model for system steady state availability and instantaneous availability are derived.Moreover,the optimal method to maximize the system steady-state availability through adjusting the inspection interval is researched.According to the above research,the optimization of system unit time cost,preventive maintenance intervals and availability is researched.Finally,the developed approach is demonstrated by a numerical example. 展开更多
关键词 availability RELIABILITY maintenance repairable system maintenance policy
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Failure Impact,Availability and Cost Analysis of PONs Based on a Network Geometric Model 被引量:1
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作者 FERNANDEZ Alvaro STOL Norvald 《光子学报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2014年第S1期18-24,共7页
Passive Optical Networks(PONs)are considered as the preferred solution for broadband fibre-based access networks.This is because PONs present low cost deployment,low energy consumption and also meet high bandwidth dem... Passive Optical Networks(PONs)are considered as the preferred solution for broadband fibre-based access networks.This is because PONs present low cost deployment,low energy consumption and also meet high bandwidth demands from end users.In addition,end users expect a high availability for access networks,while operators are more concerned about reducing the failure impact(number of clients affected by failures).Moreover,operators are also interested in reducing the cost of the access network.This paper provides a deep insight into the consequences that the physical topology and design decisions cause on the availability,the failure impact and the cost of a PON.In order to do that,the physical layout of the PON deployment area is approximated by a network geometric model.A PON deployed according to the geometric model is then assessed in terms of failure impact,availability and cost.This way,the effects of different design decisions and the physical layout on these three parameters are evaluated.In addition,the tradeoffs between availability,failure impact and cost caused by planning decisions and the physical topology are identified and pinpointed. 展开更多
关键词 availability FAILURE IMPACT CAPITAL Expenditures Passive Optical Networks NETWORK geometric model
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Seasonal Variation of Moisture Availability at Water-wind Erosion Crisscross Region in Northern Loess Plateau China 被引量:1
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作者 Tan Lu Wang Zhong-bo +1 位作者 Huang Jin-bai Yasuda Hiroshi 《Journal of Northeast Agricultural University(English Edition)》 CAS 2013年第4期72-77,共6页
The objectives of the current study were to estimate evapotranspiration(ET) over the grassland and assess seasonal variation of moisture availability at the wind-water erosion crisscross region in the northern Loess... The objectives of the current study were to estimate evapotranspiration(ET) over the grassland and assess seasonal variation of moisture availability at the wind-water erosion crisscross region in the northern Loess Plateau of China. The Liudaogou Catchment which has the representative climatic and hydrological characteristics of the wind-water erosion crisscross region was chosen as the study location. The reference crop evapotranspiration(ET 0) was estimated by Penmen method, which was recommended by FAO56 and the evapotranspiration over the grassland(ET) was estimated by Penmen-Monteith equation using the observed meteorological data with time unit of 1 h. The soil moisture availability factor was defined by m a =ET/ET 0. The calculated results for 2006 indicated that the total ET 0 was slightly more than the total yearly precipitation and ET accounted for 37 % of that, ET increased distinctly after the intensive rainfall event in the rainy season. Most of the m a was less than 0.4 and its annual mean was 0.34. It was expected that the results provided a basis for studies on dynamic functional analysis of soil moisture, relationship between soil water and crop growth at the wind-water erosion crisscross region in the northern Loess Plateau. 展开更多
关键词 Loess Plateau Liudaogou Catchment ET ET0 moisture availability
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Joint optimization of sampling interval and control for condition-based maintenance using availability maximization criterion 被引量:1
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作者 LI Xin CAI Jing +3 位作者 ZUO Hongfu LIU Ruochen CHEN Xi GUO Jiachen 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2018年第1期203-215,共13页
Most of the maintenance optimization models in condition-based maintenance(CBM) consider the cost-optimal criterion, but few papers have dealt with availability maximization for maintenance applications. A novel optim... Most of the maintenance optimization models in condition-based maintenance(CBM) consider the cost-optimal criterion, but few papers have dealt with availability maximization for maintenance applications. A novel optimal Bayesian control approach is presented for maintenance decision making. The system deterioration evolves as a three-state continuous time hidden semi-Markov process. Considering the optimal maintenance policy, the multivariate Bayesian control scheme based on the hidden semi-Markov model(HSMM) is developed, the objective is to maximize the long-run expected average availability per unit time. The proposed approach can optimize the sampling interval and control limit jointly. A case study using Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)simulation is provided and a comparison with the Bayesian control scheme based on hidden Markov model(HMM), the age-based replacement policy, Hotelling’s T2, multivariate exponentially weihted moving average(MEWMA) and multivariate cumulative sum(MCUSUM) control charts is given, which illustrates the effectiveness of the proposed method. 展开更多
关键词 condition-based maintenance(CBM) availability maximization Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC) hidden semiMarkov model(HSMM) Bayesian control sampling interval
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Interlinkage Between Global Environmental Changes,Water Resources Availability and Quality in the East African Rift:Preliminary Analyses and Some Cases:The MaWARi Project(Kenya,Ethiopia,Djibouti,France)
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作者 Kebede Seifu 《地学前缘》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2009年第S1期36-37,共2页
The East African Rift extending across Djibouti, Ethiopia and Kenya is characterized by low level of economic development,high level of poverty,increasing population,scarce natural resources(land,water, and environmen... The East African Rift extending across Djibouti, Ethiopia and Kenya is characterized by low level of economic development,high level of poverty,increasing population,scarce natural resources(land,water, and environment),complex and rich ecosystems, increasing desertification and degrading biodiversity, underdeveloped regional trade and market,water resources mainly stored in groundwater and 展开更多
关键词 East AFRICAN RIFT groundwater resources water availability global environmental change impacts SCIENTIFIC regional cooperation
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Component reallocation and system replacement maintenance based on availability and cost in series systems
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作者 FU Yuqiang MA Xiaoyang 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2022年第6期1342-1353,共12页
Component reallocation(CR)is receiving increasing attention in many engineering systems with functionally interchangeable and unbalanced degradation components.This paper studies a CR and system replacement maintenanc... Component reallocation(CR)is receiving increasing attention in many engineering systems with functionally interchangeable and unbalanced degradation components.This paper studies a CR and system replacement maintenance policy of series repairable systems,which undergoes minimal repairs for each emergency failure of components,and considers constant downtime and cost of minimal repair,CR and system replacement.Two binary mixed integer nonlinear programming models are respectively established to determine the assignment of CR,and the uptime right before CR and system replacement with the objective of minimizing the system average maintenance cost and maximizing the system availability.Further,we derive the optimal uptime right before system replacement with maximization of the system availability,and then give the relationship between the system availability and the component failure rate.Finally,numerical examples show that the CR and system replacement maintenance policy can effectively reduce the system average maintenance cost and improve the system availability,and further give the sensitivity analysis and insights of the CR and system replacement maintenance policy. 展开更多
关键词 component reallocation(CR) system replacement maintenance cost availability binary mixed integer nonlinear programming minimal repair
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A Study on System Availability Vs System Administration Efforts with Mathematical Models
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作者 Zheng JiandeChina International Electronic Commerce Center, Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation of China, Beijing 100039, P. R. China 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2003年第1期24-29,共6页
Two mathematical models are developed in this paper to study the effectiveness of system administration efforts on the improvement of system availability, based on the assumption that there exists a transitional state... Two mathematical models are developed in this paper to study the effectiveness of system administration efforts on the improvement of system availability, based on the assumption that there exists a transitional state for a computer system in operation before it is brought down by some hardware or software problems and with intensified system administration efforts, it is possible to discover and fix the problems in time to bring the system back to normal state before it is down. Markov chain is used to simulate the transition of system states. A conclusion is made that increasing system administration efforts may be a cost-effective way to meet the requirements for moderate improvement on system availability, but higher demand on this aspect still has to be met by advanced technologies. 展开更多
关键词 System administration System availability Mathematiced Models.
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Modeling of Selective Availability for Global Positioning System
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作者 Yao Huihai & Lue Shanwei(Department of Electrical Engineering BeiJing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics, Beijing 100083, China) 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 1996年第3期9-14,共6页
To degrade location accuracy for unauthorized GPS users, US government applied Selective Availability (SA) to Global Positioning System (GPS). In this paper we discuss an anti-SAapproach to improve location accuracy w... To degrade location accuracy for unauthorized GPS users, US government applied Selective Availability (SA) to Global Positioning System (GPS). In this paper we discuss an anti-SAapproach to improve location accuracy which is very important in landing position, and then we derived the SA error by eliminating almost all other errors including ionospheric and tropospheric timedelays and clock errors both in satellites and in receiver, etc. By means of the system identificationtheory, an SA errorl all SA error model with the second-order Gauss-Maukov stochastic process wasderived and simulated. With the selected parameters of the stochastic process) the simulation resultsshow that there is the excellent agreement between the simulated SA error model and that of reallyapplied in GPS system. 展开更多
关键词 Global Positioning System (GPS) Selective availability (SA) Stochastic Process Location Accuracy.
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Selective maintenance decision optimization for systems executing multi-mission under stochastic mission duration
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作者 MA Weining DONG Enzhi +1 位作者 LI Hua ZHAO Mei 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 2025年第1期209-223,共15页
This paper investigates the selective maintenance o systems that perform multi-mission in succession. Selective maintenance is performed on systems with limited break time to improve the success of the next mission. I... This paper investigates the selective maintenance o systems that perform multi-mission in succession. Selective maintenance is performed on systems with limited break time to improve the success of the next mission. In general, the duration of the mission is stochastic. However, existing studies rarely take into account system availability and the repairpersons with different skill levels. To solve this problem, a new multi-mission selective maintenance and repairpersons assignment model with stochastic duration of the mission are developed. To maximize the minimum phase-mission reliability while meeting the minimum system availability, the model is transformed into an optimization problem subject to limited maintenance resources. The optimization is then realized using an analytical method based on a self-programming function and a Monte Carlo simulation method, respectively. Finally, the validity of the model and solution method approaches are verified by numerical arithmetic examples. Comparative and sensitivity analyses are made to provide proven recommendations for decision-makers. 展开更多
关键词 multi-mission system selective maintenance problem stochastic duration Monte Carlo simulation availability
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Condition-based maintenance optimization for continuously monitored degrading systems under imperfect maintenance actions 被引量:10
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作者 CHEN Chuang LU Ningyun +1 位作者 JIANG Bin XING Yin 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2020年第4期841-851,共11页
Condition-based maintenance(CBM) is receiving increasing attention in various engineering systems because of its effectiveness. This paper formulates a new CBM optimization problem for continuously monitored degrading... Condition-based maintenance(CBM) is receiving increasing attention in various engineering systems because of its effectiveness. This paper formulates a new CBM optimization problem for continuously monitored degrading systems considering imperfect maintenance actions. In terms of maintenance actions,in practice, they scarcely restore the system to an as-good-as new state due to residual damage. According to up-to-data researches, imperfect maintenance actions are likely to speed up the degradation process. Regarding the developed CBM optimization strategy, it can balance the maintenance cost and the availability by the searching the optimal preventive maintenance threshold.The maximum number of maintenance is also considered, which is regarded as an availability constraint in the CBM optimization problem. A numerical example is introduced, and experimental results can demonstrate the novelty, feasibility and flexibility of the proposed CBM optimization strategy. 展开更多
关键词 condition-based maintenance(CBM) imperfect maintenance maintenance cost availability constraint OPTIMIZATION
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Application of reliability-centered maintenance for productivity improvement of open pit mining equipment:Case study of Sungun Copper Mine 被引量:5
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作者 Amin Moniri Morad Mohammad Pourgol-Mohammad Javad Sattarvand 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2014年第6期2372-2382,共11页
Equipment plays an important role in open pit mining industry and its cost competence at efficient operation and maintenance techniques centered on reliability can lead to significant cost reduction.The application of... Equipment plays an important role in open pit mining industry and its cost competence at efficient operation and maintenance techniques centered on reliability can lead to significant cost reduction.The application of optimal maintenance process was investigated for minimizing the equipment breakdowns and downtimes in Sungun Copper Mine.It results in the improved efficiency and productivity of the equipment and lowered expenses as well as the increased profit margin.The field operating data of 10 trucks are used to estimate the failure and maintenance profile for each component,and modeling and simulation are accomplished by using reliability block diagram method.Trend analysis was then conducted to select proper probabilistic model for maintenance profile.Then reliability of the system was evaluated and importance of each component was computed by weighted importance measure method.This analysis led to identify the items with critical impact on availability of overall equipment in order to prioritize improvement decisions.Later,the availability of trucks was evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation and it is revealed that the uptime of the trucks is around 11000 h at 12000 operation hours.Finally,uncertainty analysis was performed to account for the uncertainty sources in data and models. 展开更多
关键词 operating costs maintenance mining dump truck RELIABILITY availability UNCERTAINTY
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Optimizing reliability, maintainability and testability parameters of equipment based on GSPN 被引量:3
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作者 Tingpeng Li Yue Li +1 位作者 Yanling Qian Yongcheng Xu 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2015年第3期633-643,共11页
Reliability, maintainability and testability (RMT) are important properties of equipment, since they have important influ- ence on operational availability and life cycle costs (LCC). There- fore, weighting and op... Reliability, maintainability and testability (RMT) are important properties of equipment, since they have important influ- ence on operational availability and life cycle costs (LCC). There- fore, weighting and optimizing the three properties are of great significance. A new approach for optimization of RMT parameters is proposed. First of all, the model for the equipment operation pro- cess is established based on the generalized stochastic Petri nets (GSPN) theory. Then, by solving the GSPN model, the quantitative relationship between operational availability and RMT parameters is obtained. Afterwards, taking history data of similar equipment and operation process into consideration, a cost model of design, manufacture and maintenance is developed. Based on operational availability, the cost model and parameters ranges, an optimization model of RMT parameters is built. Finally, the effectiveness and practicability of this approach are validated through an example. 展开更多
关键词 RELIABILITY MAINTAINABILITY TESTABILITY optimization cost model operational availability.
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Multiobjective maintenance optimization of the continuously monitored deterioration system
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作者 Changyou Li Minqiang Xu +1 位作者 Song Guo Rixin Wang 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2010年第5期791-797,共7页
With the development of the monitoring technology,it is more and more common that the system is continuously monitored.Therefore,the research on the maintenance optimization of the continuously monitored deterioration... With the development of the monitoring technology,it is more and more common that the system is continuously monitored.Therefore,the research on the maintenance optimization of the continuously monitored deterioration system is important.The deterioration process of the discussed system is described by a Gamma process.The predictive maintenance is considered to be imperfect and formulated.The expected interval of two continuous preventive maintenances is derived.Then,the maintenance optimization model of the continuously monitored deterioration system is presented.In the model,the minimization of the expected operational cost per unit time and the maximization of the system availability are the optimization objectives.The improved ideal point method with the normalized objective functions is employed to solve the proposed model.The validity and sensitivity of the proposed multiobjective maintenance optimization model are analyzed by a numerical example. 展开更多
关键词 monitoring continuously multiobjective decision maintenance optimization availability COST normalized ideal point method.
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Quorum systems for intrusion-tolerance based on trusted timely computing base
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作者 Hua Zhou Xiangru Meng Li Zhang Xiangdong Qiao 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2010年第1期168-174,共7页
Quorum systems have been used to solve the problem of data consistency in distributed fault-tolerance systems. But when intrusions occur, traditional quorum systems have some disadvantages. For example, synchronous qu... Quorum systems have been used to solve the problem of data consistency in distributed fault-tolerance systems. But when intrusions occur, traditional quorum systems have some disadvantages. For example, synchronous quorum systems are subject to DOS attacks, while asynchronous quorum systems need a larger system size (at least 3f+1 for generic data, and f fewer for self-verifying data). In order to solve the problems above, an intrusion-tolerance quorum system (ITQS) of hybrid time model based on trust timely computing base is presented (TTCB). The TTCB is a trust secure real-time component inside the server with a well defined interface and separated from the operation system. It is in the synchronous communication environment while the application layer in the server deals with read-write requests and executes update-copy protocols asynchronously. The architectural hybridization of synchrony and asynchrony can achieve the data consistency and availability correctly. We also build two kinds of ITQSes based on TTCB, i.e., the symmetrical and the asymmetrical TTCB quorum systems. In the performance evaluations, we show that TTCB quorum systems are of smaller size, lower load and higher availability. 展开更多
关键词 network security intrusion-tolerance quorum system trusted timely computing base (TTCB) CONSISTENCY availability.
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Formal management-specifying approach for model-based safety assessment
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作者 XU Changyi DUAN Yiman ZHANG Chao 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2023年第6期1589-1601,共13页
In the field of model-based system assessment,mathematical models are used to interpret the system behaviors.However,the industrial systems in this intelligent era will be more manageable.Various management operations... In the field of model-based system assessment,mathematical models are used to interpret the system behaviors.However,the industrial systems in this intelligent era will be more manageable.Various management operations will be dynamically set,and the system will be no longer static as it is initially designed.Thus,the static model generated by the traditional model-based safety assessment(MBSA)approach cannot be used to accurately assess the dependability.There mainly exists three problems.Complex:huge and complex behaviors make the modeling to be trivial manual;Dynamic:though there are thousands of states and transitions,the previous model must be resubmitted to assess whenever new management arrives;Unreusable:as for different systems,the model must be resubmitted by reconsidering both the management and the system itself at the same time though the management is the same.Motivated by solving the above problems,this research studies a formal management specifying approach with the advantages of agility modeling,dynamic modeling,and specification design that can be re-suable.Finally,three typical managements are specified in a series-parallel system as a demonstration to show the potential. 展开更多
关键词 model-based safety assessment(MBSA) MANAGEMENT availability RELIABILITY MAINTAINABILITY continuous time Markov chain.
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The First Chinese Ocean Color Satellite HY-1A
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作者 PAN Delu HE Xianqiang 《空间科学学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2004年第z1期69-76,共8页
HY-1A is China's first ocean color satellite, and was launched on 15 May 2002as a piggyback satellite on the FY-1D satellite using the Long March rocket.There are two sensors on the satellite: China's Ocean Co... HY-1A is China's first ocean color satellite, and was launched on 15 May 2002as a piggyback satellite on the FY-1D satellite using the Long March rocket.There are two sensors on the satellite: China's Ocean Color and Temperature Scanner (COCTS), and the CCD Coastal Zone Imager (CZI). In the report,first, the properties and characteristics of HY-1A are briefly introduced; Second, the quality and availability of the data are evaluated by the mean of the Complex Signal Noise Ratio (CSNR) which is simulated theoretically; Third,the received HY-1A data are compared with SeaSTAR data to understand the accuracy of radiance measurement by the HY-1A; Finally, the remote sensing products of ocean color and temperature are mapped by HY-1A to study its application potentiality. The results show that the HY-1A has a latent capability for the application of marine environment detection, the management and protection of marine resources, and the furthering of national rights and interests.Meanwhile, some modifications are proposed for the next ocean satellite, suchas adding the case of tilt scanning, modification of the CCD element uniformity,and adding more ocean satellite receiving stations. 展开更多
关键词 HY-1A availability Accuracy APPLICATION
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Preliminary Research on the Residual Infrared Absorption of Titanium-doped Sapphire
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作者 Yin Shaotang Qin Qinghai +4 位作者 Xu Jiangfeng Fan Kaichun Wang Jiguang Li Weimin Mao Mingsheng 《人工晶体学报》 CSCD 1991年第3期240-240,共1页
Titanium-doped sapphire is an excellent laser crystal which has a bright future.But the residual infrared absorption in laser operation region of the crystal hindered the enhancement of the laser gain.Reducing the res... Titanium-doped sapphire is an excellent laser crystal which has a bright future.But the residual infrared absorption in laser operation region of the crystal hindered the enhancement of the laser gain.Reducing the residual infrared absorption is the key to that the crystal goes from experimental prototypesto commercially available products. 展开更多
关键词 laser crystal titanium doped sapphire residual infrared absorption enhancement laser gainreducing residual infrared absorption infrared absorption commercial availability
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Strategies for multi-step-ahead available parking spaces forecasting based on wavelet transform 被引量:6
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作者 JI Yan-jie GAO Liang-peng +1 位作者 CHEN Xiao-shi GUO Wei-hong 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2017年第6期1503-1512,共10页
A new methodology for multi-step-ahead forecasting was proposed herein which combined the wavelet transform(WT), artificial neural network(ANN) and forecasting strategies based on the changing characteristics of avail... A new methodology for multi-step-ahead forecasting was proposed herein which combined the wavelet transform(WT), artificial neural network(ANN) and forecasting strategies based on the changing characteristics of available parking spaces(APS). First, several APS time series were decomposed and reconstituted by the wavelet transform. Then, using an artificial neural network, the following five strategies for multi-step-ahead time series forecasting were used to forecast the reconstructed time series: recursive strategy, direct strategy, multi-input multi-output(MIMO) strategy, DIRMO strategy(a combination of the direct and MIMO strategies), and newly proposed recursive multi-input multi-output(RECMO) strategy which is a combination of the recursive and MIMO strategies. Finally, integrating the predicted results with the reconstructed time series produced the final forecasted available parking spaces. Three findings appear to be consistently supported by the experimental results. First, applying the wavelet transform to multi-step ahead available parking spaces forecasting can effectively improve the forecasting accuracy. Second, the forecasting resulted from the DIRMO and RECMO strategies is more accurate than that of the other strategies. Finally, the RECMO strategy requires less model training time than the DIRMO strategy and consumes the least amount of training time among five forecasting strategies. 展开更多
关键词 available PARKING SPACES MULTI-STEP AHEAD time series forecasting wavelet transform forecasting STRATEGIES recursive multi-input MULTI-OUTPUT strategy
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