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A cloud model target damage effectiveness assessment algorithm based on spatio-temporal sequence finite multilayer fragments dispersion
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作者 Hanshan Li Xiaoqian Zhang Junchai Gao 《Defence Technology(防务技术)》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2024年第10期48-64,共17页
To solve the problem of target damage assessment when fragments attack target under uncertain projectile and target intersection in an air defense intercept,this paper proposes a method for calculating target damage p... To solve the problem of target damage assessment when fragments attack target under uncertain projectile and target intersection in an air defense intercept,this paper proposes a method for calculating target damage probability leveraging spatio-temporal finite multilayer fragments distribution and the target damage assessment algorithm based on cloud model theory.Drawing on the spatial dispersion characteristics of fragments of projectile proximity explosion,we divide into a finite number of fragments distribution planes based on the time series in space,set up a fragment layer dispersion model grounded in the time series and intersection criterion for determining the effective penetration of each layer of fragments into the target.Building on the precondition that the multilayer fragments of the time series effectively assail the target,we also establish the damage criterion of the perforation and penetration damage and deduce the damage probability calculation model.Taking the damage probability of the fragment layer in the spatio-temporal sequence to the target as the input state variable,we introduce cloud model theory to research the target damage assessment method.Combining the equivalent simulation experiment,the scientific and rational nature of the proposed method were validated through quantitative calculations and comparative analysis. 展开更多
关键词 Target damage Cloud model Fragments dispersion Effectiveness assessment Spatio-temporal sequence
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A novel refined dynamic model of high-speed maglev train-bridge coupled system for random vibration and running safety assessment
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作者 MAO Jian-feng LI Dao-hang +3 位作者 YU Zhi-wu CAI Wen-feng GUO Wei ZHANG Guang-wen 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2024年第7期2532-2544,共13页
Running safety assessment and tracking irregularity parametric sensitivity analysis of high-speed maglev train-bridge system are of great concern,especially need perfect refinement models in which all properties can b... Running safety assessment and tracking irregularity parametric sensitivity analysis of high-speed maglev train-bridge system are of great concern,especially need perfect refinement models in which all properties can be well characterized based on various stochastic excitations.A three-dimensional refined spatial random vibration analysis model of high-speed maglev train-bridge coupled system is established in this paper,in which multi-source uncertainty excitation can be considered simultaneously,and the probability density evolution method(PDEM)is adopted to reveal the system-specific uncertainty dynamic characteristic.The motion equation of the maglev vehicle model is composed of multi-rigid bodies with a total 210-degrees of freedom for each vehicle,and a refined electromagnetic force-air gap model is used to account for the interaction and coupling effect between the moving train and track beam bridges,which are directly established by using finite element method.The model is proven to be applicable by comparing with Monte Carlo simulation.By applying the proposed stochastic framework to the high maglev line,the random dynamic responses of maglev vehicles running on the bridges are studied for running safety and stability assessment.Moreover,the effects of track irregularity wavelength range under different amplitude and running speeds on the coupled system are investigated.The results show that the augmentation of train speed will move backward the sensitive wavelength interval,and track irregularity amplitude influences the response remarkably in the sensitive interval. 展开更多
关键词 maglev train-bridge interaction electromagnetic force-air gap model stochastic dynamic analysis running safety assessment probability density evolution method
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Risk assessment model of tunnel water inrush based on improved attribute mathematical theory 被引量:12
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作者 YANG Xiao-li ZHANG Sheng 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2018年第2期379-391,共13页
Tunnel water inrush is one of the common geological disasters in the underground engineering construction.In order to effectively evaluate and control the occurrence of water inrush,the risk assessment model of tunnel... Tunnel water inrush is one of the common geological disasters in the underground engineering construction.In order to effectively evaluate and control the occurrence of water inrush,the risk assessment model of tunnel water inrush was proposed based on improved attribute mathematical theory.The trigonometric functions were adopted to optimize the attribute mathematical theory,avoiding the influence of mutation points and linear variation zones in traditional linear measurement functions on the accuracy of the model.Based on comprehensive analysis of various factors,five parameters were selected as the evaluation indicators for the model,including tunnel head pressure,permeability coefficient of surrounding rock,crushing degree of surrounding rock,relative angle of joint plane and tunnel section size,under the principle of dimension rationality,independence,directness and quantification.The indicator classifications were determined.The links among measured data were analyzed in detail,and the objective weight of each indicator was determined by using similar weight method.Thereby the tunnel water inrush risk assessment model is established and applied in four target segments of two different tunnels in engineering.The evaluation results and the actual excavation data agree well,which indicates that the model is of high credibility and feasibility. 展开更多
关键词 tunnel water inrush risk assessment model attribute mathematical theory nonlinear measurement function similar weight method
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Using hybrid modeling for life cycle assessment of motor bike and electric bike 被引量:1
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作者 戴杜 冷如波 +1 位作者 张成 王成焘 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2005年第S2期77-80,共4页
Life-cycle assessment (LCA) is environmental evaluation of products, materials, and processes over their life cycle. Truncation uncertainty and corresponding uncertainty are main problems occurred in process life cycl... Life-cycle assessment (LCA) is environmental evaluation of products, materials, and processes over their life cycle. Truncation uncertainty and corresponding uncertainty are main problems occurred in process life cycle assessment (PLCA) modeling and economic input-output life cycle assessment (EIOLCA) modeling. Through combination of these two modelings in different life cycle stage and use of an uncertainty reduction strategy, a hybrid life cycle assessment modeling method was proposed in this study. Case studies were presented on gasoline-powered motorbikes (M-bike) and electricity-powered electric bike (E-bike). Web-based software was developed to analyze process environmental impacts. Results show that the largest part of life cycle energy (LCE) is consumed at use stage. Less energy is consumed in life cycle of E-bike than that of M-bike. GWP (Global Warming Potential), CO (Carbon Monoxide), PM10 (particulate matter) emission of M-bike are higher than that of E-bike, especially at use stage, AP (acidification Potential) emission of E-bike is higher than that of M-bike. Comprehensively, E-bike is energy efficient and less emitting, and better choice for urban private transportation. 展开更多
关键词 LIFE CYCLE assessment hybrid modeling BIKE
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Risk Assessment of Coal Mine Water Hazard Based on Three-Dimensional Model of Geology and Underground Space 被引量:1
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作者 Kai Zhang~1,Ming Huang~1,Bin Tang~2,Fan Cui~1 1.Laboratory of Coal Resources and Mine Safety,China University of Mining and Technology,Beijing 100083,China. 2.China Water Investment Co.Ltd,Beijing 100053,China 《地学前缘》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2009年第S1期279-279,共1页
Mine safety have top-five disasters,which including the water,gas,fire,dust and geological dynamic disaster.The coal mine water disaster is one of the important factors which restricted the development of China’s coa... Mine safety have top-five disasters,which including the water,gas,fire,dust and geological dynamic disaster.The coal mine water disaster is one of the important factors which restricted the development of China’s coal production.It is showed by statistics that 60%of mine accidents are affected by groundwater,which not only result in the production losses,casualties and a variety of 展开更多
关键词 DISASTER risk assessment THREE-DIMENSIONAL model of GEOLOGY and UNDERGROUND space emergency RESCUE
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Risk identification and safety assessment of human-computer interaction in integrated avionics based on STAMP
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作者 ZHAO Changxiao LI Hao +2 位作者 ZHANG Wei DAI Jun DONG Lei 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第3期689-706,共18页
To solve the problem of risk identification and quantitative assessment for human-computer interaction(HCI)in complex avionics systems,an HCI safety analysis framework based on system-theoretical process analysis(STPA... To solve the problem of risk identification and quantitative assessment for human-computer interaction(HCI)in complex avionics systems,an HCI safety analysis framework based on system-theoretical process analysis(STPA)and cognitive reliability and error analysis method(CREAM)is proposed.STPACREAM can identify unsafe control actions and find the causal path during the interaction of avionics systems and pilot with the help of formal verification tools automatically.The common performance conditions(CPC)of avionics systems in the aviation environment is established and a quantitative analysis of human failure is carried out.Taking the head-up display(HUD)system interaction process as an example,a case analysis is carried out,the layered safety control structure and formal model of the HUD interaction process are established.For the interactive behavior“Pilots approaching with HUD”,four unsafe control actions and35 causal scenarios are identified and the impact of common performance conditions at different levels on the pilot decision model are analyzed.The results show that HUD's HCI level gradually improves as the scores of CPC increase,and the quality of crew member cooperation and time sufficiency of the task is the key to its HCI.Through case analysis,it is shown that STPACREAM can quantitatively assess the hazards in HCI and identify the key factors that impact safety. 展开更多
关键词 AVIONICS human-computer interaction(HCI) safety assessment system-theoretic accident model and process human reliability analysis
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Recycling Strategy and Recyclability Assessment Model Based on the Artificial Neural Network
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作者 LIU Zhi-feng, LIU Xue-Ping, WANG Shu-wang, LIU Guang-fu (College of Mechanical & Auto Engineering, Hefei University of Techno logy, Hefei 230009, China) 《厦门大学学报(自然科学版)》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2002年第S1期153-154,共2页
Now, a rapidly growing concern for the environmental protection and resource utilization has stimulated many new activities in the in dustrialized world for coping with urgent environmental problems created by the ste... Now, a rapidly growing concern for the environmental protection and resource utilization has stimulated many new activities in the in dustrialized world for coping with urgent environmental problems created by the steadily increasing consumption of industrial products. Increasingly stringent r egulations and widely expressed public concern for the environment highlight the importance of disposing solid waste generated from industrial and consumable pr oducts. How to efficiently recycle and tackle this problem has been a very impo rtant issue over the world. Designing products for recyclability is driven by environmental and economic goals. To obtain good recyclability, two measures can be adopted. One is better recycling strategy and technology; the other is design for recycling (DFR). The recycling strategies of products generally inclu de: reuse, service, remanufacturing, recycling of production scraps during the p roduct usage, recycle (separation first) and disposal. Recyclability assessment is a very important content in DFR. This paper first discusses the content of D FR and strategies and types related to products recyclability, and points out th at easy or difficult recyclability depends on the design phase. Then method and procedure of recyclability assessment based on ANN is explored in detail. The pr ocess consists of selection of the ANN input and output parameters, control of t he sample quality and construction and training of the neural network. At la st, the case study shows this method is simple and operative. 展开更多
关键词 recycling strategy product recycling artificial neural network assessment model design for recycling
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A fast-running engineering tool for assessing structural vulnerability to blast loading
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作者 Carlo Crispino Salvatore Annunziata +2 位作者 Alberto Contini Luca Lomazzi Andrea Manes 《Defence Technology(防务技术)》 2025年第4期244-254,共11页
Assessing the vulnerability of a platform is crucial in its design.In fact,the results obtained from vulnerability analyses provide valuable information,leading to precise design choices or corrective solutions that e... Assessing the vulnerability of a platform is crucial in its design.In fact,the results obtained from vulnerability analyses provide valuable information,leading to precise design choices or corrective solutions that enhance the platform's chances of surviving different scenarios.Such scenarios can involve various types of threats that can affect the platform's survivability.Among such,blast waves impacting the platform's structure represent critical conditions that have not yet been studied in detail.That is,frameworks for vulnerability assessment that can deal with blast loading have not been presented yet.In this context,this work presents a fast-running engineering tool that can quantify the risk that a structure fails when it is subjected to blast loading from the detonation of high explosive-driven threats detonating at various distances from the structure itself.The tool has been implemented in an in-house software that calculates vulnerability to various impacting objects,and its capabilities have been shown through a simplified,yet realistic,case study.The novelty of this research lies in the development of an integrated computational environment capable of calculating the platform's vulnerability to blast waves,without the need for running expensive finite element simulations.In fact,the proposed tool is fully based on analytical models integrated with a probabilistic approach for vulnerability calculation. 展开更多
关键词 VULNERABILITY Blast loading Probabilistic assessment Analytical models Fast-running engineering tool
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蒙特卡罗法在化感作用全区间抑制强度评估(wholerange assessment)中的应用 被引量:1
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作者 刘迎湖 付银莲 +2 位作者 陈小秋 安民 陈实 《生态科学》 CSCD 2009年第4期357-361,共5页
植物化感作用的强弱与化感物质的作用浓度相关。化感作用全区间抑制强度指数(Whole-range assessmentindex)是用于评估植物在一定的化感物质作用范围内所受化感作用总体抑制程度的一种方法。在对非线性剂量响应进行曲线拟合的基础上,本... 植物化感作用的强弱与化感物质的作用浓度相关。化感作用全区间抑制强度指数(Whole-range assessmentindex)是用于评估植物在一定的化感物质作用范围内所受化感作用总体抑制程度的一种方法。在对非线性剂量响应进行曲线拟合的基础上,本研究应用蒙特卡罗模拟法为计算化感作用全区间抑制强度指数提供了一种科学的数学计算方法,并应用该计算方法分析了番茄水浸提液对生菜、萝卜、白菜、菜心、包心菜、豆角和水稻的化感作用强度。 展开更多
关键词 化感作用 低促高抑(赫米斯Hormesis) 化感作用全区间抑制强度指数(whole-range assessment index) An.Johnson.Lover Hormesis模型 蒙特卡罗模拟法(Monte Carlo simulation)
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Risk assessment of water inrush in tunnels based on attribute interval recognition theory 被引量:8
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作者 WANG Sheng LI Li-ping +3 位作者 CHENG Shuai HU Hui-jiang ZHANG Ming-guang WEN Tao 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2020年第2期517-530,共14页
Water inrush is one of the most serious geological hazards in underground engineering construction.In order to effectively prevent and control the occurrence of water inrush,a new attribute interval recognition theory... Water inrush is one of the most serious geological hazards in underground engineering construction.In order to effectively prevent and control the occurrence of water inrush,a new attribute interval recognition theory and method is proposed to systematically evaluate the risk of water inrush in karst tunnels.Its innovation mainly includes that the value of evaluation index is an interval rather than a certain value;the single-index attribute evaluation model is improved non-linearly based on the idea of normal distribution;the synthetic attribute interval analysis method based on improved intuitionistic fuzzy theory is proposed.The TFN-AHP method is proposed to analyze the weight of evaluation index.By analyzing geological factors and engineering factors in tunnel zone,a multi-grade hierarchical index system for tunnel water inrush risk assessment is established.The proposed method is applied to ventilation incline of Xiakou tunnel,and its rationality and practicability is verified by comparison with field situation and evaluation results of other methods.In addition,the results evaluated by this method,which considers that water inrush is a complex non-linear system and the geological conditions have spatial variability,are more accurate and reliable.And it has good applicability in solving the problem of certain and uncertain problem. 展开更多
关键词 water inrush risk assessment attribute interval recognition model TFN-AHP
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Stability assessment of rock surrounding an I-beam supported retreating roadway 被引量:5
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作者 严红 张吉雄 +1 位作者 李林玥 冯锐敏 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2015年第9期3598-3607,共10页
The installation of a back-wall guard-board is the key to successfully supporting underground retreating roadways in coal mines. Based on the coordinate support principle, and using an I-shaped steel support for the s... The installation of a back-wall guard-board is the key to successfully supporting underground retreating roadways in coal mines. Based on the coordinate support principle, and using an I-shaped steel support for the surrounding rock, a mechanical model was developed for the stability of the roadway support and surrounding rock. Analysis of the bearing capacity of the roof back-wall guard-board and modelling of the equations for the maximum deflection and the maximum compressive stress of the top and side beams of the I-shaped steel support were undertaken. Simultaneously, the model was used to calculate and analyse the stability of the top and side beams of the I-shaped steel support structure and analyse the criteria for their stability. The results provide a reliable theoretical basis for the judgment of the stability of the surrounding rock and support structure. The theoretical evaluation results are consistent with field data. Finally, the key support parameters of the top and side beams of the I-shaped steel support structure and the variation of the maximum deflection and the maximum compressive stress as affected by the influence of the guard-board length were investigated. It is concluded that, as the back-board length increases, the maximum compressive stress in the top beam of the I-shaped steel support increases while the compressive stress in the side beam decreases. The results show that the accuracy of judgment of the stability of a supported retreating roadway is improved, providing guidance for the design of such typical I-shaped steel support and back-board structures. 展开更多
关键词 mine support retreating roadway mechanical model back-wall guard-board stability assessment
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Meteoroid and Space Debris Risk Assessment for Satellites Orbiting the Earth/Moon
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作者 FENG Shuai WANG Ronglan 《空间科学学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2023年第4期724-735,共12页
Interplanetary meteoroids and space debris can impact satellites orbiting the Earth or spacecraft traveling to the Moon.Targeting China Space Station(CSS),7 satellites selected from the constellation of Beidou Navigat... Interplanetary meteoroids and space debris can impact satellites orbiting the Earth or spacecraft traveling to the Moon.Targeting China Space Station(CSS),7 satellites selected from the constellation of Beidou Navigation Satellite System Phase III(BDS-3),and 3 spacecraft orbiting the Moon,we have adopted in the paper the Meteoroid Engineering Model 3,Divine-Staubach meteoroid environment model,and Jenniskens-McBride meteoroid steam model to analyze the meteoroid environment with the mass range of 10–6~10 g.Orbital Debris Engineering Model 3.1 space debris model is used to analyze the orbital debris environment faced by these satellites.The flux of space debris with a size larger than 100μm is compared with that of the meteoroids.The results show that the space debris flux encountered by China Space Station is much higher than that of the meteoroids with sizes in the above range.And quite the opposite,the meteoroids flux impacting the 7 satellites from the BDS-3 is higher.Upon adopting the double-layer Whipple protection measure,the catastrophic collision flux of these satellites encountering meteoroids is about 10–6 times of that without protection,or even less,implying that the Whipple protection effectively guarantees the safety of the satellites in orbit.Besides,it is also found that the flux of the high-density meteoroid population encountered by each satellite is greater than that of the low-density population,whereas the impact velocity is lower for each satellite.These results can aid the orbit selection and the protection design for satellites and spacecraft. 展开更多
关键词 Meteoroid environment model Space debris model Ballistic limit equation Impact risk assessment
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慢加急性肝衰竭肝移植预后评估 被引量:1
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作者 赖曼 徐曼曼 +2 位作者 王鑫 栗光明 陈煜 《器官移植》 北大核心 2025年第3期482-488,共7页
慢加急性肝衰竭(ACLF)是一种在慢性肝病基础上发生的急性肝功能恶化,伴随肝脏和肝外器官衰竭,短期病死率高。肝移植是ACLF患者的唯一治愈方法,但供肝短缺和分配系统的限制使得只有少数患者能接受移植。基于终末期肝病模型(MELD)评分的... 慢加急性肝衰竭(ACLF)是一种在慢性肝病基础上发生的急性肝功能恶化,伴随肝脏和肝外器官衰竭,短期病死率高。肝移植是ACLF患者的唯一治愈方法,但供肝短缺和分配系统的限制使得只有少数患者能接受移植。基于终末期肝病模型(MELD)评分的器官分配体系存在低估ACLF患者肝移植紧迫性的风险,开发更好的评估工具以确定哪些ACLF患者最有可能从肝移植中受益是当务之急。因此,本文就目前国内外主流的ACLF定义、ACLF肝移植治疗适应人群的选择以及ACLF肝移植预后的评分进行综述,以期为ACLF患者肝移植预后评估提供参考。 展开更多
关键词 肝移植 慢加急性肝衰竭 器官衰竭 终末期肝病模型评分 预后 静态评估 动态评估 机器学习
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基于信息量模型的黑山峡地区滑坡易发性风险评价 被引量:3
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作者 王炳亮 裴超 +2 位作者 李宝泉 石慧群 林兴 《人民黄河》 北大核心 2025年第1期134-140,共7页
滑坡是黄河黑山峡地区的主要地质灾害之一,在黑山峡水利枢纽建设前期工作中开展黑山峡地区滑坡易发性评价显得尤为必要。基于黑山峡地区地质条件、气候、人类活动等调查资料,选取高程、坡度、曲率、地层岩性、与断层的距离、与水系的距... 滑坡是黄河黑山峡地区的主要地质灾害之一,在黑山峡水利枢纽建设前期工作中开展黑山峡地区滑坡易发性评价显得尤为必要。基于黑山峡地区地质条件、气候、人类活动等调查资料,选取高程、坡度、曲率、地层岩性、与断层的距离、与水系的距离、NDVI(归一化差分植被指数)、与道路的距离、降水量9个因子作为滑坡易发性评价指标,采用信息量模型进行滑坡易发性评价,通过对各因子的分级权重进行计算,得到滑坡易发性信息量值;通过对滑坡易发性信息量进行叠加与分区,绘制黑山峡地区滑坡易发性分区图,确定危险区域。结果表明:黑山峡地区滑坡灾害极高易发区位于东北部中卫市沙坡头区、南部靖远县以及主要河流与道路沿线,这些地区地层岩性较软弱,大多为砂、黄土等,在河流冲积与人类活动的影响下极易发生地表斜坡失稳。 展开更多
关键词 滑坡 易发性 风险评价 信息量模型 黑山峡地区
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BIM技术赋能在役桥梁安全与高效运维 被引量:2
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作者 张丽萍 王广 +2 位作者 王力 陈云峰 李子奇 《中国安全生产科学技术》 北大核心 2025年第1期101-108,共8页
为了保证运维阶段桥梁结构安全,提升桥梁运维工作的效率,开展公路混凝土梁式桥运维阶段建筑信息模型(building information modeling,BIM)技术应用研究。在对公路桥梁现行编码体系进行扩展的基础上,提出1种参数化快速建模方法,以快速完... 为了保证运维阶段桥梁结构安全,提升桥梁运维工作的效率,开展公路混凝土梁式桥运维阶段建筑信息模型(building information modeling,BIM)技术应用研究。在对公路桥梁现行编码体系进行扩展的基础上,提出1种参数化快速建模方法,以快速完成桥梁构件族的创建与整体模型的集成。借助Autodesk Revit软件应用程序编程接口(application programming interface,API),采用C#语言,开发公路混凝土梁式桥智慧运维状态评估系统,以实际工程应用进行验证分析。研究结果表明:全面统一的桥梁信息编码体系,能够提高桥梁信息统计与检索效率;提出的快速建模方法能够显著减少建模工作量,建模时间较传统建模方法可减少60%,并保证模型的准确性与规范性;运维状态评估系统能够实现养护数据的充分利用与桥梁评定工作的自动化,通过对桥梁运维信息的有效组织,实现服役性能的长期追踪,从而确保运营期桥梁结构状态安全稳定。研究结果可为公路混凝土梁式桥运维管理提供技术支撑,提升桥梁运维的数字化水平。 展开更多
关键词 桥梁工程 运维状态评估系统 Building Information modeling 公路混凝土梁式桥
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集中降雨影响下辽南仙人洞国家级自然保护区滑坡灾害多因子风险评价 被引量:3
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作者 郑德凤 潘美伊 +3 位作者 高敏 闫成林 李媛媛 年廷凯 《地质科技通报》 北大核心 2025年第2期48-58,共11页
位于辽宁省南部的仙人洞国家级自然保护区及毗邻区域,近年来在集中降雨期间多次发生滑坡等地质灾害;然而,针对集中降雨影响下该区域滑坡灾害易发性与风险评价还很少探究,因此亟待开展深入研究,这对有效减轻保护区地质灾害危害、提升地... 位于辽宁省南部的仙人洞国家级自然保护区及毗邻区域,近年来在集中降雨期间多次发生滑坡等地质灾害;然而,针对集中降雨影响下该区域滑坡灾害易发性与风险评价还很少探究,因此亟待开展深入研究,这对有效减轻保护区地质灾害危害、提升地质灾害应急和风险防控能力具有重要意义。首先利用SMOTE-Tomek综合采样法、耦合XGBoost模型,对地形地貌、地质岩性、水文气象和人类工程活动因子等12个指标进行深入分析,以获取滑坡灾害易发性评价结果;其次,着重考虑短时间集中降雨和连续性降雨影响,利用研究区周围4个气象站的日降雨数据,计算2018-2023年平均暴雨强度和3 d累计降雨量,作为危险性评价指标,实现对滑坡灾害危险性的量化评估。在此基础上,考虑承灾体的易损性特点和区域防灾减灾能力,构建适用于研究区的多因子滑坡灾害风险评价模型,进而得到滑坡灾害风险评价分区图。结果表明:较高及以上等级风险区约占研究区总面积的10%,主要分布在仙人洞镇东北部、步云山乡北部、长岭镇北部和荷花山镇西南部。未来应重点关注滑坡地质灾害风险较高的仙人洞镇和步云山乡,加强监测和预警工作,为整个研究区的地质灾害防控提供决策支持。 展开更多
关键词 滑坡灾害 易发性评价 风险评价 SMOTE-Tomek算法 XGBoost模型 防灾减灾能力 自然保护区 集中降雨
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基于PSR+云模型的室内地震应急避难场所的韧性评估 被引量:1
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作者 李海凌 刘睿玲 张怀 《地震工程学报》 北大核心 2025年第1期143-151,共9页
为评估室内地震应急避难场所的韧性等级,提出一种基于压力-状态-响应(PSR)模型+云模型的室内地震应急避难场所韧性评估方法。从PSR角度构建室内地震应急避难场所韧性评估指标体系,划分韧性评估等级标准,利用AHP-DEMATEL为指标赋权,并结... 为评估室内地震应急避难场所的韧性等级,提出一种基于压力-状态-响应(PSR)模型+云模型的室内地震应急避难场所韧性评估方法。从PSR角度构建室内地震应急避难场所韧性评估指标体系,划分韧性评估等级标准,利用AHP-DEMATEL为指标赋权,并结合云模型构建室内地震应急避难场所的韧性评估模型。以该模型对绵阳市九洲体育馆进行实证分析,分别确定其压力韧性、状态韧性、响应韧性的隶属度等级,最终得到综合等级C 2的结论,与九洲体育馆在汶川地震中表现出的韧性状态吻合,验证了模型的有效性。 展开更多
关键词 韧性评估 室内地震应急避难场所 避难建筑 PSR模型 云模型
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电化学储能电站运行风险评价模型与应用研究 被引量:1
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作者 陈西江 毛晓萱 胡少华 《安全与环境学报》 北大核心 2025年第4期1257-1266,共10页
为提升电化学储能电站风险管控水平和本质安全能力,研究基于等级全息模型(Hierarchical Holographic Modeling,HHM)建立电化学储能电站运行风险评价指标体系,包括人员因素、电池因素、环境因素、管理因素4个一级指标,以及壳体破损、荷... 为提升电化学储能电站风险管控水平和本质安全能力,研究基于等级全息模型(Hierarchical Holographic Modeling,HHM)建立电化学储能电站运行风险评价指标体系,包括人员因素、电池因素、环境因素、管理因素4个一级指标,以及壳体破损、荷电状态等20个二级指标。运用最优最劣法(Best-Worst Method,BWM)和改进CRITIC(Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation)法确定评价指标的主客观权重,利用博弈论方法计算评价指标的组合权重,并应用二维云模型通过仿真分析确定风险指标等级,构建了基于BWM-改进CRITIC-二维云模型的电化学储能电站运行风险评价模型。工程应用结果显示:永川松溉储能电站运行风险等级为Ⅲ级,处于一般风险。该电站电池荷电状态和单体间温度不一致的概率等级、后果等级风险云数字特征较高,分别为5.05、6.58和5.87、5.78,二者在风险管控中应处于核心地位。 展开更多
关键词 安全工程 储能电站 风险评价 二维云模型
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中国保险业系统性风险的评估与预警研究——基于Attention-LSTM模型的分析 被引量:1
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作者 师荣蓉 杨娅 《财经理论与实践》 北大核心 2025年第2期26-34,共9页
基于保险业系统性风险传导机制和预警机制的理论分析,利用CoVaR方法评估保险业系统性风险,从微观保险机构和宏观经济环境构建Attention-LSTM模型对保险业系统性风险进行预警分析。研究发现:当遭遇重大事件冲击时,系统重要性保险机构对... 基于保险业系统性风险传导机制和预警机制的理论分析,利用CoVaR方法评估保险业系统性风险,从微观保险机构和宏观经济环境构建Attention-LSTM模型对保险业系统性风险进行预警分析。研究发现:当遭遇重大事件冲击时,系统重要性保险机构对保险业的风险溢出增加;将金融压力指数纳入风险预警体系,其预测平均绝对误差、均方根误差和平均绝对百分比误差分别降低8.59%、7.27%和4.55%;Attention-LSTM模型能捕捉风险间的关联性和传染性,在预测准确性、泛化能力和时间稳定性方面均优于传统机器学习模型。鉴于此,应建立保险业风险分区管理体系,融合深度学习模型多维度构建保险业系统性风险预警机制。 展开更多
关键词 保险业系统性风险 评估 预警 Attention-LSTM模型
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基于场景多模态数据的学生坚毅力智能化测评研究
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作者 郑勤华 郭利明 齐欣 《中国电化教育》 北大核心 2025年第5期75-84,116,共11页
学生坚毅力的重要性日益明显。目前对学生坚毅力的测评大部分是以主观方法、单一的静态性文本模态数据为主,鲜有研究基于场景融合真实表现的多模态数据开展对学生坚毅力的客观化与智能化测评,不利于学生坚毅力的培养与发展。基于此,该... 学生坚毅力的重要性日益明显。目前对学生坚毅力的测评大部分是以主观方法、单一的静态性文本模态数据为主,鲜有研究基于场景融合真实表现的多模态数据开展对学生坚毅力的客观化与智能化测评,不利于学生坚毅力的培养与发展。基于此,该研究以学生坚毅力测评的理论体系、工具体系以及数据体系为基础,通过“多模态数据采集、多模态数据特征提取、模态融合与指标计算、模型生成与结果计算、模型有效性验证”的思路,开展融合科学探究活动场景多模态数据的学生坚毅力智能化测评。实践结果表明,该研究提出的学生坚毅力智能化测评方法体系能够比较真实反映学生的坚毅力发展状态,一定程度解决了学生坚毅力测评的现实问题,能为未来学生高阶能力集的测评提供参考。 展开更多
关键词 坚毅力测评 多模态数据 坚毅力测评可计算模型 表现性评价 科学探究活动
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