This paper presents a risk evaluation model of water and mud inrush for tunnel excavation in karst areas.The factors affecting the probabilities of water and mud inrush in karst tunnels are investigated to define the ...This paper presents a risk evaluation model of water and mud inrush for tunnel excavation in karst areas.The factors affecting the probabilities of water and mud inrush in karst tunnels are investigated to define the dangerousness of this geological disaster.The losses that are caused by water and mud inrush are taken into consideration to account for its harmfulness.Then a risk evaluation model based on the dangerousness-harmfulness evaluation indicator system is constructed,which is more convincing in comparison with the traditional methods.The catastrophe theory is used to evaluate the risk level of water and mud inrush and it has great advantage in handling problems involving discontinuous catastrophe processes.To validate the proposed approach,the Qiyueshan tunnel of Yichang-Wanzhou Railway is taken as an example in which four target segments are evaluated using the risk evaluation model.Finally,the evaluation results are compared with the excavation data,which shows that the risk levels predicted by the proposed approach are in good agreements with that observed in engineering.In conclusion,the catastrophe theory-based risk evaluation model is an efficient and effective approach for water and mud inrush in karst tunnels.展开更多
The fuzziness exists in spatial distribution of geographic data of land suitability evaluation processes,which makes it difficult to quantify land boundaries by using traditional binary logic-based overlay model.Aimin...The fuzziness exists in spatial distribution of geographic data of land suitability evaluation processes,which makes it difficult to quantify land boundaries by using traditional binary logic-based overlay model.Aiming at this limitation,an ecological suitability evaluation analysis model was presented based on fuzzy theory and a research on urban growth boundary(UGB) of the Great-Hexi Leading District(GHLD) of Changsha was conducted.With the support of GIS,RS and MATLAB,slope,elevation,vegetation,soil productivity,soil permeability,water body and land use are selected as the input of model according to the characteristic properties of soil and terrain in red soil hilly areas.The running result of this model indicates that the ratios of highly suitable land,suitable land,moderately suitable land and unsuitable land in GHLD are 18.75%,10.31%,64.16%,6.78%,respectively.This result accords with spatial structure worked out by Space Development Strategy Planning of GHLD,Based on this result,several suggestions are made to guide UGB developments in future.展开更多
In the evaluation of some simulation systems, only small samples data are gotten due to the limited conditions. In allusion to the evaluation problem of small sample data, an interval estimation approach with the impr...In the evaluation of some simulation systems, only small samples data are gotten due to the limited conditions. In allusion to the evaluation problem of small sample data, an interval estimation approach with the improved grey confidence degree is proposed.On the basis of the definition of grey distance, three kinds of definition of the grey weight for every sample element in grey estimated value are put forward, and then the improved grey confidence degree is designed. In accordance with the new concept, the grey interval estimation for small sample data is deduced. Furthermore,the bootstrap method is applied for more accurate grey confidence interval. Through resampling of the bootstrap, numerous small samples with the corresponding confidence intervals can be obtained. Then the final confidence interval is calculated from the union of these grey confidence intervals. In the end, the simulation system evaluation using the proposed method is conducted. The simulation results show that the reasonable confidence interval is acquired, which demonstrates the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.展开更多
Environmental risk assessment of tailings reservoir assessment system is complex and has many index factors.In order to accurately judge surrounding environmental risks of tailings reservoirs and determinate the corre...Environmental risk assessment of tailings reservoir assessment system is complex and has many index factors.In order to accurately judge surrounding environmental risks of tailings reservoirs and determinate the corresponding prevention and control work,multi-hierarchical fuzzy judgment and nested dominance relation of rough set theory are implemented to evaluate them and find out the rules of this evaluation system with 14 representative cases.The methods of multi-hierarchical fuzzy evaluation can overall consider each influence factor of risk assessment system and their mutual impact,and the index weight based on the analytic hierarchy process is relatively reasonable.Rough set theory based on dominance relation reduces each index attribute from the top down,largely simplifies the complexity of the original evaluation system,and considers the preferential information in each index.Furthermore,grey correlation theory is applied to analysis of importance of each reducted condition attribute.The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed safety evaluation system and the application potential.展开更多
The clustering evaluation can be used to scientifically classify the objects to be evaluated according to the information aggregation of various evaluation rules. In grey weighted clustering evaluation, the index clus...The clustering evaluation can be used to scientifically classify the objects to be evaluated according to the information aggregation of various evaluation rules. In grey weighted clustering evaluation, the index clustering rule relies on the construction of the whitenization weight function, while the existing construction method of the linear function lacks the construction mechanism analysis and validity explanation. A normative construction principle is put forward by analyzing the construction mechanism of the function. Through proving the normative principle of the function,the basic modal function(BMF) is proposed and characterized by different function forms. Then, a new type of the whitenization weight function and its grey clustering evaluation model algorithm are given by studying the mechanism and nature of the construction of different forms of the function. Finally, the comparative study for self-innovation capability of defense science and technology industry(DSTI) is taken as an example. The results show that the different construction ways of the function have an effect on the clustering result. The proposed construction mechanism can better explain the index clustering rules and evaluation effectiveness,which will perfect the theoretical system of grey clustering evaluation and be applied to practice effectively.展开更多
Water resource allocation was defined as an input-output question in this paper, and a preliminary input-output index system was set up. Then GEM （group eigenvalue method）-MAUE （multi-attribute utility theory） mod...Water resource allocation was defined as an input-output question in this paper, and a preliminary input-output index system was set up. Then GEM （group eigenvalue method）-MAUE （multi-attribute utility theory） model was applied to evaluate relative efficiency of water resource allocation plans. This model determined weights of indicators by GEM, and assessed the allocation schemes by MAUE. Compared with DEA （Data Envelopment Analysis） or ANN （Artificial Neural Networks）, the mode was more applicable in some cases where decision-makers had preference for certain indicators展开更多
One of the goals of data collection is preparing for decision-making, so high quality requirement must be satisfied. Rational evaluation of data quality is an effective way to identify data problem in time, and the qu...One of the goals of data collection is preparing for decision-making, so high quality requirement must be satisfied. Rational evaluation of data quality is an effective way to identify data problem in time, and the quality of data after this evaluation is satisfactory with the requirement of decision maker. A fuzzy neural network based research method of data quality evaluation is proposed. First, the criteria for the evaluation of data quality are selected to construct the fuzzy sets of evaluating grades, and then by using the learning ability of NN, the objective evaluation of membership is carried out, which can be used for the effective evaluation of data quality. This research has been used in the platform of ＇data report of national compulsory education outlay guarantee＇ from the Chinese Ministry of Education. This method can be used for the effective evaluation of data quality worldwide, and the data quality situation can be found out more completely, objectively, and in better time by using the method.展开更多
The contribution rate of equipment system-of-systems architecture(ESoSA)is an important index to evaluate the equipment update,development,and architecture optimization.Since the traditional ESoSA contribution rate ev...The contribution rate of equipment system-of-systems architecture(ESoSA)is an important index to evaluate the equipment update,development,and architecture optimization.Since the traditional ESoSA contribution rate evaluation method does not make full use of the fuzzy information and uncertain information in the equipment system-of-systems(ESoS),and the Bayesian network is an effective tool to solve the uncertain information,a new ESoSA contribution rate evaluation method based on the fuzzy Bayesian network(FBN)is proposed.Firstly,based on the operation loop theory,an ESoSA is constructed considering three aspects:reconnaissance equipment,decision equipment,and strike equipment.Next,the fuzzy set theory is introduced to construct the FBN of ESoSA to deal with fuzzy information and uncertain information.Furthermore,the fuzzy importance index of the root node of the FBN is used to calculate the contribution rate of the ESoSA,and the ESoSA contribution rate evaluation model based on the root node fuzzy importance is established.Finally,the feasibility and rationality of this method are validated via an empirical case study of aviation ESoSA.Compared with traditional methods,the evaluation method based on FBN takes various failure states of equipment into consideration,is free of acquiring accurate probability of traditional equipment failure,and models the uncertainty of the relationship between equipment.The proposed method not only supplements and improves the ESoSA contribution rate assessment method,but also broadens the application scope of the Bayesian network.展开更多
Due to a combination of the sea erosion,the ship collision,the change of ground condition,the effect of alternative static and dynamic load and the material deterioration,the structure of high-pile wharf is easily dam...Due to a combination of the sea erosion,the ship collision,the change of ground condition,the effect of alternative static and dynamic load and the material deterioration,the structure of high-pile wharf is easily damaged.Once the structure of high-pile wharf destroyed,it is bound to be a great threat to the safety of various facilities and personnel in the port.Given all of that,the multi-level comprehensive evaluation method based on the extension theory is proposed in this paper.Using this method to assess the safety of high-pile wharf structure,the reasonable advice on its maintenance and reinforcement can be given in time.What’s more,the method is simple and can give more objective result of the evaluation.展开更多
基金Project(51378510)supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China。
文摘This paper presents a risk evaluation model of water and mud inrush for tunnel excavation in karst areas.The factors affecting the probabilities of water and mud inrush in karst tunnels are investigated to define the dangerousness of this geological disaster.The losses that are caused by water and mud inrush are taken into consideration to account for its harmfulness.Then a risk evaluation model based on the dangerousness-harmfulness evaluation indicator system is constructed,which is more convincing in comparison with the traditional methods.The catastrophe theory is used to evaluate the risk level of water and mud inrush and it has great advantage in handling problems involving discontinuous catastrophe processes.To validate the proposed approach,the Qiyueshan tunnel of Yichang-Wanzhou Railway is taken as an example in which four target segments are evaluated using the risk evaluation model.Finally,the evaluation results are compared with the excavation data,which shows that the risk levels predicted by the proposed approach are in good agreements with that observed in engineering.In conclusion,the catastrophe theory-based risk evaluation model is an efficient and effective approach for water and mud inrush in karst tunnels.
基金Project(2006BAJ04A13) supported by the National Science and Technology Pillar Program during the 11th Five-Year Plan of ChinaProject(2009FJ4056) supported by the Key Project of Science and Technology Program of Hunan Province,ChinaProject(20090161120014) supported by the New Teachers Fund of Department of Education,China
文摘The fuzziness exists in spatial distribution of geographic data of land suitability evaluation processes,which makes it difficult to quantify land boundaries by using traditional binary logic-based overlay model.Aiming at this limitation,an ecological suitability evaluation analysis model was presented based on fuzzy theory and a research on urban growth boundary(UGB) of the Great-Hexi Leading District(GHLD) of Changsha was conducted.With the support of GIS,RS and MATLAB,slope,elevation,vegetation,soil productivity,soil permeability,water body and land use are selected as the input of model according to the characteristic properties of soil and terrain in red soil hilly areas.The running result of this model indicates that the ratios of highly suitable land,suitable land,moderately suitable land and unsuitable land in GHLD are 18.75%,10.31%,64.16%,6.78%,respectively.This result accords with spatial structure worked out by Space Development Strategy Planning of GHLD,Based on this result,several suggestions are made to guide UGB developments in future.
文摘In the evaluation of some simulation systems, only small samples data are gotten due to the limited conditions. In allusion to the evaluation problem of small sample data, an interval estimation approach with the improved grey confidence degree is proposed.On the basis of the definition of grey distance, three kinds of definition of the grey weight for every sample element in grey estimated value are put forward, and then the improved grey confidence degree is designed. In accordance with the new concept, the grey interval estimation for small sample data is deduced. Furthermore,the bootstrap method is applied for more accurate grey confidence interval. Through resampling of the bootstrap, numerous small samples with the corresponding confidence intervals can be obtained. Then the final confidence interval is calculated from the union of these grey confidence intervals. In the end, the simulation system evaluation using the proposed method is conducted. The simulation results show that the reasonable confidence interval is acquired, which demonstrates the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.
基金Project(51374242)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(200449)supported by National Outstanding Doctoral Dissertations Special Fund of ChinaProject(2012QNZT028)supported by the Free Exploration Fund of Central South University,China
文摘Environmental risk assessment of tailings reservoir assessment system is complex and has many index factors.In order to accurately judge surrounding environmental risks of tailings reservoirs and determinate the corresponding prevention and control work,multi-hierarchical fuzzy judgment and nested dominance relation of rough set theory are implemented to evaluate them and find out the rules of this evaluation system with 14 representative cases.The methods of multi-hierarchical fuzzy evaluation can overall consider each influence factor of risk assessment system and their mutual impact,and the index weight based on the analytic hierarchy process is relatively reasonable.Rough set theory based on dominance relation reduces each index attribute from the top down,largely simplifies the complexity of the original evaluation system,and considers the preferential information in each index.Furthermore,grey correlation theory is applied to analysis of importance of each reducted condition attribute.The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed safety evaluation system and the application potential.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71671090)the Aeronautical Science Foundation of China(2016ZG52068)+1 种基金the Liberal Arts and Social Sciences Foundation of the Ministry of Education(MOE)in China(15YJCZH189)the Qinglan Project for Excellent Youth or Middle-aged Academic Leaders in Jiangsu Province
文摘The clustering evaluation can be used to scientifically classify the objects to be evaluated according to the information aggregation of various evaluation rules. In grey weighted clustering evaluation, the index clustering rule relies on the construction of the whitenization weight function, while the existing construction method of the linear function lacks the construction mechanism analysis and validity explanation. A normative construction principle is put forward by analyzing the construction mechanism of the function. Through proving the normative principle of the function,the basic modal function(BMF) is proposed and characterized by different function forms. Then, a new type of the whitenization weight function and its grey clustering evaluation model algorithm are given by studying the mechanism and nature of the construction of different forms of the function. Finally, the comparative study for self-innovation capability of defense science and technology industry(DSTI) is taken as an example. The results show that the different construction ways of the function have an effect on the clustering result. The proposed construction mechanism can better explain the index clustering rules and evaluation effectiveness,which will perfect the theoretical system of grey clustering evaluation and be applied to practice effectively.
文摘Water resource allocation was defined as an input-output question in this paper, and a preliminary input-output index system was set up. Then GEM （group eigenvalue method）-MAUE （multi-attribute utility theory） model was applied to evaluate relative efficiency of water resource allocation plans. This model determined weights of indicators by GEM, and assessed the allocation schemes by MAUE. Compared with DEA （Data Envelopment Analysis） or ANN （Artificial Neural Networks）, the mode was more applicable in some cases where decision-makers had preference for certain indicators
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (60503024 50634010).
文摘One of the goals of data collection is preparing for decision-making, so high quality requirement must be satisfied. Rational evaluation of data quality is an effective way to identify data problem in time, and the quality of data after this evaluation is satisfactory with the requirement of decision maker. A fuzzy neural network based research method of data quality evaluation is proposed. First, the criteria for the evaluation of data quality are selected to construct the fuzzy sets of evaluating grades, and then by using the learning ability of NN, the objective evaluation of membership is carried out, which can be used for the effective evaluation of data quality. This research has been used in the platform of ＇data report of national compulsory education outlay guarantee＇ from the Chinese Ministry of Education. This method can be used for the effective evaluation of data quality worldwide, and the data quality situation can be found out more completely, objectively, and in better time by using the method.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Project(2018YFB1700802)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(72071206)the Science and Technology Innovation Plan of Hunan Province(2020RC4046).
文摘The contribution rate of equipment system-of-systems architecture(ESoSA)is an important index to evaluate the equipment update,development,and architecture optimization.Since the traditional ESoSA contribution rate evaluation method does not make full use of the fuzzy information and uncertain information in the equipment system-of-systems(ESoS),and the Bayesian network is an effective tool to solve the uncertain information,a new ESoSA contribution rate evaluation method based on the fuzzy Bayesian network(FBN)is proposed.Firstly,based on the operation loop theory,an ESoSA is constructed considering three aspects:reconnaissance equipment,decision equipment,and strike equipment.Next,the fuzzy set theory is introduced to construct the FBN of ESoSA to deal with fuzzy information and uncertain information.Furthermore,the fuzzy importance index of the root node of the FBN is used to calculate the contribution rate of the ESoSA,and the ESoSA contribution rate evaluation model based on the root node fuzzy importance is established.Finally,the feasibility and rationality of this method are validated via an empirical case study of aviation ESoSA.Compared with traditional methods,the evaluation method based on FBN takes various failure states of equipment into consideration,is free of acquiring accurate probability of traditional equipment failure,and models the uncertainty of the relationship between equipment.The proposed method not only supplements and improves the ESoSA contribution rate assessment method,but also broadens the application scope of the Bayesian network.
文摘Due to a combination of the sea erosion,the ship collision,the change of ground condition,the effect of alternative static and dynamic load and the material deterioration,the structure of high-pile wharf is easily damaged.Once the structure of high-pile wharf destroyed,it is bound to be a great threat to the safety of various facilities and personnel in the port.Given all of that,the multi-level comprehensive evaluation method based on the extension theory is proposed in this paper.Using this method to assess the safety of high-pile wharf structure,the reasonable advice on its maintenance and reinforcement can be given in time.What’s more,the method is simple and can give more objective result of the evaluation.
