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福建省台风灾害直接经济损失预评估模型 被引量:13
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作者 于小龙 潘伟然 +1 位作者 张国荣 骆智斌 《厦门大学学报(自然科学版)》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2011年第6期1047-1052,共6页
基于2000—2009年对福建省造成灾害损失的22个台风数据,将台风分为气象型灾害和混合型灾害,利用数理统计的方法建立台风灾害直接经济损失预评估模型,在得到致灾因子和损失因子的多项式拟合关系基础上,进行了台风损失的悲观估计和乐观估... 基于2000—2009年对福建省造成灾害损失的22个台风数据,将台风分为气象型灾害和混合型灾害,利用数理统计的方法建立台风灾害直接经济损失预评估模型,在得到致灾因子和损失因子的多项式拟合关系基础上,进行了台风损失的悲观估计和乐观估计,并对台风灾害的影响等级进行了评估.研究结果显示该模型具有较高的拟合率,由误差分布和实际评估结果计算的模型的有效率均达到80%以上,能够较好地预评估台风可能造成的直接经济损失并能有效地分析台风灾害的趋势;灾害等级预报的准确性稍低于灾害经济损失预报的准确性,但总体属于同一水平.模型的建立可为防灾减灾提供科学依据,具有实际意义. 展开更多
关键词 台风 直接经济损失 灾害等级 数理统计 预评估模型
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基于大样本检验数据的电梯风险预评估方法 被引量:12
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作者 陈国华 蔡文杰 +2 位作者 王新华 刘英杰 李刚 《中国安全科学学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2015年第5期56-60,共5页
为提高在用电梯监督抽查工作效率,在统计分析大样本检验数据库的基础上,构建以电梯使用情况、电梯基本参数以及维保安装制造因素为指标的管理指标体系;根据在用电梯整机检验风险分布特性以及风险等级划分的最低合理可行(ALARP)原则,研... 为提高在用电梯监督抽查工作效率,在统计分析大样本检验数据库的基础上,构建以电梯使用情况、电梯基本参数以及维保安装制造因素为指标的管理指标体系;根据在用电梯整机检验风险分布特性以及风险等级划分的最低合理可行(ALARP)原则,研究电梯整机检验风险等级划分准则,建立电梯整机检验风险预评估模型。工程应用结果表明,用该方法可完成批量电梯的风险预评估工作,为电梯监督抽查工作筛选出合理比例的高风险电梯。 展开更多
关键词 电梯 大样本 监督抽查 检验数据库 预评估模型 最低合理可行(ALARP)原则
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Analytical models for evaluating buoyancy-driven ventilation due to stack effect in a shaft considering heat transfer from shaft interior boundaries 被引量:1
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作者 阳东 李百战 +1 位作者 杜涛 李楠 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2012年第3期651-656,共6页
Stack effect is a dominant driving force for building natural ventilation.Analytical models were developed for the evaluation of stack effect in a shaft,accounting for the heat transfer from shaft interior boundaries.... Stack effect is a dominant driving force for building natural ventilation.Analytical models were developed for the evaluation of stack effect in a shaft,accounting for the heat transfer from shaft interior boundaries.Both the conditions with constant heat flux from boundaries to the airflow and the ones with constant boundary temperature were considered.The prediction capabilities of these analytical models were evaluated by using large eddy simulation(LES) for a hypothetical shaft.The results show that there are fairly good agreements between the predictions of the analytical models and the LES predictions in mass flow rate,vertical temperatures profile and pressure difference as well.Both the results of analytical models and LES show that the neutral plane could locate higher than one half of the shaft height when the upper opening area is identical with the lower opening area.Further,it is also shown that the analytical models perform better than KLOTE's model does in the mass flow rate prediction. 展开更多
关键词 stack effect theoretical analysis large eddy simulation vertical temperature distribution heat transfer
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Error assessment of laser cutting predictions by semi-supervised learning
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作者 Mustafa Zaidi Imran Amin +1 位作者 Ahmad Hussain Nukman Yusoff 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2014年第10期3736-3745,共10页
Experimentation data of perspex glass sheet cutting, using CO2 laser, with missing values were modelled with semi-supervised artificial neural networks. Factorial design of experiment was selected for the verification... Experimentation data of perspex glass sheet cutting, using CO2 laser, with missing values were modelled with semi-supervised artificial neural networks. Factorial design of experiment was selected for the verification of orthogonal array based model prediction. It shows improvement in modelling of edge quality and kerf width by applying semi-supervised learning algorithm, based on novel error assessment on simulations. The results are expected to depict better prediction on average by utilizing the systematic randomized techniques to initialize the neural network weights and increase the number of initialization. Missing values handling is difficult with statistical tools and supervised learning techniques; on the other hand, semi-supervised learning generates better results with the smallest datasets even with missing values. 展开更多
关键词 semi-supervised learning training algorithm kerf width edge quality laser cutting process artificial neural network(ANN)
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