以位于不同水文气象分区的屯溪流域和绥德流域为研究对象,选取TIGGE(THORPEX Interactive Garnd Global Ensemble)数据集中NCEP(National Centersfor Environmental Prediction)、ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forec...以位于不同水文气象分区的屯溪流域和绥德流域为研究对象,选取TIGGE(THORPEX Interactive Garnd Global Ensemble)数据集中NCEP(National Centersfor Environmental Prediction)、ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts)、CMA(China Meteorological Administration)3种预报产品的2010—2015年控制预报数据,基于分位数映射法中的QUANT(non-parametric quantile mapping using empirical quantiles)法和RQUANT(non-parametric quantile mapping using robust empirical quantiles)法进行预报降雨修正,并采用多分类预报检验、连续型预报检验和概率型预报检验等方法,对不同水文气象分区、不同预报产品和不同修正方法进行比较与适用性分析;同时,以屯溪流域实测降雨为例,通过增加噪声项对降雨重采样,基于新安江模型分析降雨不确定性对水文模拟结果的影响。结果表明:在研究流域,所选的预报产品对无雨和小雨期的预报精度都较高,但随着降雨量的增加,各产品的预报能力均出现较为明显的下降。多分类和连续型检验表明绥德流域的降雨预报效果更佳,NCEP和ECMWF在研究流域的整体预报精度较高,CMA的整体预报精度在研究流域略低于其他产品。各产品在修正后大部分检验指标预报精度提高,其中:ECMWF在绥德流域修正后预报精度最高,对两种修正方法都有很好的适用性;在屯溪流域,NCEP和ECMWF在不同修正方法后各指标预报精度各有高低,CMA在修正后仅在大雨量级的TS评分预报精度高于其他产品。降雨的不确定性会对水文模拟产生消极影响,并导致参数的不确定性和水文模拟精度的下降。展开更多
In order to establish a rapid method for regional slope stability analysis under rainfall,matric suction and seepage force were taken into account after obtaining explicit solution of infiltration depth.Moreover,simpl...In order to establish a rapid method for regional slope stability analysis under rainfall,matric suction and seepage force were taken into account after obtaining explicit solution of infiltration depth.Moreover,simplified analysis model under 3D condition was put forward based on identification and division of slope units,as well as modification of sliding direction of each column.The result shows that explicit solution of infiltration depth is of good precision;for the given model,safety factors without taking seepage force into account are 1.82-2.94 times higher;the stagnation point of slope angle is located approximately in the range of(45°,50°);the safety factor changes insignificantly when wetting front is deeper than 2 m;when matric suction changes in the specified range,the maximum variations of safety factor are less than 0.5,which proves that matric suction plays an insignificant role in maintaining slope stability compared to the slope angle and infiltration depth.Incorporated with geographic information system,a practical application of regional slope stability assessment verifies the applicability of the proposed method.展开更多
基金Project(kfj110207) supported by Open Fund of Key Laboratory of Road Structure and Material of Ministry of Transport,China
文摘In order to establish a rapid method for regional slope stability analysis under rainfall,matric suction and seepage force were taken into account after obtaining explicit solution of infiltration depth.Moreover,simplified analysis model under 3D condition was put forward based on identification and division of slope units,as well as modification of sliding direction of each column.The result shows that explicit solution of infiltration depth is of good precision;for the given model,safety factors without taking seepage force into account are 1.82-2.94 times higher;the stagnation point of slope angle is located approximately in the range of(45°,50°);the safety factor changes insignificantly when wetting front is deeper than 2 m;when matric suction changes in the specified range,the maximum variations of safety factor are less than 0.5,which proves that matric suction plays an insignificant role in maintaining slope stability compared to the slope angle and infiltration depth.Incorporated with geographic information system,a practical application of regional slope stability assessment verifies the applicability of the proposed method.
