We propose a procedure to forecast short time series with stable seasonal pattern.This new method is motivated by the observations that short time series arise in many situations for the fierce competition.The quantit...We propose a procedure to forecast short time series with stable seasonal pattern.This new method is motivated by the observations that short time series arise in many situations for the fierce competition.The quantity to be predicted is a yearly accumulation assuming that the partially accumulated data within the year are available.A simple model is proposed to describe the relation-ship between the yearly accumulation and partial accumulation and analytic results are obtained for both the point prediction and the predicative distribution.A comparison will be conducted between this model and traditional time series forecasting model with data from telecommunication industry. This method works better than the traditional models when only small amount of data are available. It can also be applied to forecast individual observations with a proper disaggregation algorithm.展开更多
Pattern Time Delay Shift Coding (PDS) scheme is robust for underwater acoustic communication. The digital information are encoded in the time delay shift values of the Pattern, so the PDS scheme belongs to the Pulse P...Pattern Time Delay Shift Coding (PDS) scheme is robust for underwater acoustic communication. The digital information are encoded in the time delay shift values of the Pattern, so the PDS scheme belongs to the Pulse Position Modulation (PPM). Several Patterns are selected for code division that the communication system could have a high ability to mitigate the inter-symbol interference (ISI) caused by multipath channel. Four communication channels work on the same time divided by different frequency, which lead to 1000bits/s of the data rate of communication. The simulation experiments show that the PDS system could adapt to many underwater acoustic channels for high data rate and high reliability.展开更多
文摘We propose a procedure to forecast short time series with stable seasonal pattern.This new method is motivated by the observations that short time series arise in many situations for the fierce competition.The quantity to be predicted is a yearly accumulation assuming that the partially accumulated data within the year are available.A simple model is proposed to describe the relation-ship between the yearly accumulation and partial accumulation and analytic results are obtained for both the point prediction and the predicative distribution.A comparison will be conducted between this model and traditional time series forecasting model with data from telecommunication industry. This method works better than the traditional models when only small amount of data are available. It can also be applied to forecast individual observations with a proper disaggregation algorithm.
文摘Pattern Time Delay Shift Coding (PDS) scheme is robust for underwater acoustic communication. The digital information are encoded in the time delay shift values of the Pattern, so the PDS scheme belongs to the Pulse Position Modulation (PPM). Several Patterns are selected for code division that the communication system could have a high ability to mitigate the inter-symbol interference (ISI) caused by multipath channel. Four communication channels work on the same time divided by different frequency, which lead to 1000bits/s of the data rate of communication. The simulation experiments show that the PDS system could adapt to many underwater acoustic channels for high data rate and high reliability.
