目的分析1990-2019年中国睾丸癌的发病和死亡情况,并探讨年龄、时期和队列效应对睾丸癌发病和死亡的影响。方法利用全球疾病负担(Global Burden of Disease,GBD)2019数据库,分析1990-2019年中国睾丸癌发病和死亡情况,应用Joinpoint软件...目的分析1990-2019年中国睾丸癌的发病和死亡情况,并探讨年龄、时期和队列效应对睾丸癌发病和死亡的影响。方法利用全球疾病负担(Global Burden of Disease,GBD)2019数据库,分析1990-2019年中国睾丸癌发病和死亡情况,应用Joinpoint软件分析标化发病率和标化死亡率的时间变化趋势,计算平均年度变化百分比。构建年龄-时期-队列模型,分析年龄、时期和出生队列效应对睾丸癌发病及死亡趋势变化的影响。结果2019年,中国睾丸癌发病率为1.21/10万,死亡率为0.08/10万,发病率和死亡率比1990年升高了348.15%和14.29%。1990-2019年,中国睾丸癌标化发病率呈升高趋势,平均每年升高5.23%,趋势有统计学意义(P<0.05),睾丸癌标化死亡率呈下降趋势,平均每年下降0.12%,但趋势无统计学意义(P>0.05)。年龄效应结果显示,1990-2019年中国睾丸癌的发病率和死亡率整体呈升高趋势,发病率和死亡率均在60岁以后呈快速升高趋势,在85岁以上年龄组达到高峰。时期效应结果显示,1990-2019年,中国睾丸癌发病风险的时期变化相对危险度(relative ratio,RR)呈升高趋势,在2015-2019年发病风险最高,发病风险RR=2.44[95%可信区间(confidence interval,CI)2.31~2.56];睾丸癌死亡风险的时期变化RR值趋势呈下降趋势,1995-1999年死亡风险最高,死亡风险RR=1.09(95%CI 0.99~1.19)。队列效应结果显示,出生越晚的人,发病风险越高,死亡风险越低。结论1990-2019年,中国居民睾丸癌的标化发病率呈升高趋势,标化死亡率呈下降趋势但无统计学意义。不同年龄、时期和出生队列的睾丸癌流行病学模式和趋势可能为公共卫生提供新的见解,这些发现可为进一步减轻睾丸癌负担的公共卫生策略的制定提供重要依据。展开更多
Objective To forecast the future burden and its attributable risk factors of infective endocarditis(IE).Methods We analyzed the disease burden of IE and its risk factors from 1990 to 2019 using the Global Burden of Di...Objective To forecast the future burden and its attributable risk factors of infective endocarditis(IE).Methods We analyzed the disease burden of IE and its risk factors from 1990 to 2019 using the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database and projected the disease burden from 2020 to 2030 using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model.Results By 2030,the incidence of IE will increase uncontrollably on a global scale,with developed countries having the largest number of cases and developing countries experiencing the fastest growth.The affected population will be predominantly males,but the gender gap will narrow.The elderly in high-income countries will bear the greatest burden,with a gradual shift to middle-income countries.The incidence of IE in countries with middle/high-middle social-demographic indicators(SDI) will surpass that of high SDI countries.In China,the incidence rate and the number of IE will reach 18.07 per 100,000 and 451,596 in 2030,respectively.IEassociated deaths and heart failure will continue to impose a significant burden on society,the burden on women will increase and surpass that on men,and the elderly in high-SDI countries will bear the heaviest burden.High systolic blood pressure has become the primary risk factor for IE-related death.Conclusions This study provides comprehensive analyses of the disease burden and risk factors of IE worldwide over the next decade.The IE-associated incidence will increase in the future and the death and heart failure burden will not be appropriately controlled.Gender,age,regional,and country heterogeneity should be taken seriously to facilitate in making effective strategies for lowering the IE disease burden.展开更多
文摘Objective To forecast the future burden and its attributable risk factors of infective endocarditis(IE).Methods We analyzed the disease burden of IE and its risk factors from 1990 to 2019 using the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database and projected the disease burden from 2020 to 2030 using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model.Results By 2030,the incidence of IE will increase uncontrollably on a global scale,with developed countries having the largest number of cases and developing countries experiencing the fastest growth.The affected population will be predominantly males,but the gender gap will narrow.The elderly in high-income countries will bear the greatest burden,with a gradual shift to middle-income countries.The incidence of IE in countries with middle/high-middle social-demographic indicators(SDI) will surpass that of high SDI countries.In China,the incidence rate and the number of IE will reach 18.07 per 100,000 and 451,596 in 2030,respectively.IEassociated deaths and heart failure will continue to impose a significant burden on society,the burden on women will increase and surpass that on men,and the elderly in high-SDI countries will bear the heaviest burden.High systolic blood pressure has become the primary risk factor for IE-related death.Conclusions This study provides comprehensive analyses of the disease burden and risk factors of IE worldwide over the next decade.The IE-associated incidence will increase in the future and the death and heart failure burden will not be appropriately controlled.Gender,age,regional,and country heterogeneity should be taken seriously to facilitate in making effective strategies for lowering the IE disease burden.
