To improve prediction accuracy of strip thickness in hot rolling, a kind of Dempster/Shafer(D_S) information reconstitution prediction method(DSIRPM) was presented. DSIRPM basically consisted of three steps to impleme...To improve prediction accuracy of strip thickness in hot rolling, a kind of Dempster/Shafer(D_S) information reconstitution prediction method(DSIRPM) was presented. DSIRPM basically consisted of three steps to implement the prediction of strip thickness. Firstly, iba Analyzer was employed to analyze the periodicity of hot rolling and find three sensitive parameters to strip thickness, which were used to undertake polynomial curve fitting prediction based on least square respectively, and preliminary prediction results were obtained. Then, D_S evidence theory was used to reconstruct the prediction results under different parameters, in which basic probability assignment(BPA) was the key and the proposed contribution rate calculated using grey relational degree was regarded as BPA, which realizes BPA selection objectively. Finally, from this distribution, future strip thickness trend was inferred. Experimental results clearly show the improved prediction accuracy and stability compared with other prediction models, such as GM(1,1) and the weighted average prediction model.展开更多
Rolling force for strip casting of 1Cr17 ferritic stainless steel was predicted using theoretical model and artificial intelligence.Solution zone was classified into two parts by kiss point position during casting str...Rolling force for strip casting of 1Cr17 ferritic stainless steel was predicted using theoretical model and artificial intelligence.Solution zone was classified into two parts by kiss point position during casting strip.Navier-Stokes equation in fluid mechanics and stream function were introduced to analyze the rheological property of liquid zone and mushy zone,and deduce the analytic equation of unit compression stress distribution.The traditional hot rolling model was still used in the solid zone.Neural networks based on feedforward training algorithm in Bayesian regularization were introduced to build model for kiss point position.The results show that calculation accuracy for verification data of 94.67% is in the range of ±7.0%,which indicates that the predicting accuracy of this model is very high.展开更多
基金Projects(61174115,51104044)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(L2010153)supported by Scientific Research Project of Liaoning Provincial Education Department,China
文摘To improve prediction accuracy of strip thickness in hot rolling, a kind of Dempster/Shafer(D_S) information reconstitution prediction method(DSIRPM) was presented. DSIRPM basically consisted of three steps to implement the prediction of strip thickness. Firstly, iba Analyzer was employed to analyze the periodicity of hot rolling and find three sensitive parameters to strip thickness, which were used to undertake polynomial curve fitting prediction based on least square respectively, and preliminary prediction results were obtained. Then, D_S evidence theory was used to reconstruct the prediction results under different parameters, in which basic probability assignment(BPA) was the key and the proposed contribution rate calculated using grey relational degree was regarded as BPA, which realizes BPA selection objectively. Finally, from this distribution, future strip thickness trend was inferred. Experimental results clearly show the improved prediction accuracy and stability compared with other prediction models, such as GM(1,1) and the weighted average prediction model.
基金Project(2004CB619108) supported by National Basic Research Program of China
文摘Rolling force for strip casting of 1Cr17 ferritic stainless steel was predicted using theoretical model and artificial intelligence.Solution zone was classified into two parts by kiss point position during casting strip.Navier-Stokes equation in fluid mechanics and stream function were introduced to analyze the rheological property of liquid zone and mushy zone,and deduce the analytic equation of unit compression stress distribution.The traditional hot rolling model was still used in the solid zone.Neural networks based on feedforward training algorithm in Bayesian regularization were introduced to build model for kiss point position.The results show that calculation accuracy for verification data of 94.67% is in the range of ±7.0%,which indicates that the predicting accuracy of this model is very high.
