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疾病传播动力学研究中的流行模拟方法 被引量:7
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作者 蔡全才 姜庆五 +4 位作者 郭强 徐勤丰 程翔 孙庆文 赵根明 《第二军医大学学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2005年第3期310-313,共4页
目的:建立疾病传播动力学研究中模拟流行的方法。方法:在建立传染病传播动力学模型的基础上,采用Van guard DecisionPro软件中的Markov模型方法模拟疾病流行,以北京SARS流行模拟及模型的抽象研究为例说明其应用。结果:DecisionPro Marko... 目的:建立疾病传播动力学研究中模拟流行的方法。方法:在建立传染病传播动力学模型的基础上,采用Van guard DecisionPro软件中的Markov模型方法模拟疾病流行,以北京SARS流行模拟及模型的抽象研究为例说明其应用。结果:DecisionPro Markov模型可以直观地描述疾病传播动力学模型。在Markov模型中,各模型参数取值可以随时调整,并可通过编程实现;可以观察模型状态变量的实时变化,预测疾病的流行趋势;通过敏感性分析功能,可以研究模型变量之间相互作用的规律;通过想定研究方法,可以定量评价输入参数变化对流行的影响。实例研究发现,该方法很适合流行模拟研究,可以用于干预措施效果的定量评价。结论:DecisionPro Markov模型方法是一种较为理想的模拟疾病流行的方法,可以用于传播动力学模型的抽象研究。 展开更多
关键词 疾病传播动力学 流行模拟 MARKOV模型 严重急性呼吸综合征
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Numerical simulation of heat transfer and flow of cooling air in triangular wavy fin channels 被引量:3
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作者 倪明龙 陈亚平 +1 位作者 董聪 吴嘉峰 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2014年第7期2759-2765,共7页
Numerical computation models of air cooling heat transfer and flow behaviors in triangular wavy fin channels(TWFC) were established with structural parameters of fins considered.The air side properties of heat transfe... Numerical computation models of air cooling heat transfer and flow behaviors in triangular wavy fin channels(TWFC) were established with structural parameters of fins considered.The air side properties of heat transfer coefficient and pressure drop are displayed with variable structural parameters of fins and inlet velocities of cooling air.Within the range of simulation,TWFC has the best comprehensive performance when inlet velocity vin=4-10 m/s.Compared with those of straight fins,the simulation results reveal that the triangular wavy fin channels are of higher heat transfer performances especially with the fin structural parameters of fin-height Fh=9.0 mm,fin-pitch Fp=2.5-3.0 mm,fin-wavelength λ=14.0-17.5 mm and fin-wave-amplitude A=1.0-1.2 mm.The correlations of both heat transfer factor and friction factor are presented,and the deviations from the experimental measurements are within 20%. 展开更多
关键词 triangular wavy fins heat transfer coefficients pressure drops plate-fin heat exchangers air cooling
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Rheological behavior of continuous roll casting process of aluminum alloy
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作者 湛利华 钟掘 +1 位作者 李晓谦 黄明辉 《Journal of Central South University of Technology》 EI 2005年第6期629-634,共6页
The rheological behavior of aluminum alloy and its influencing factors in physical simulation of continuous roll casting process were studied by using a Gleeble-1500 thermal-mechanical simulation tester with a set of ... The rheological behavior of aluminum alloy and its influencing factors in physical simulation of continuous roll casting process were studied by using a Gleeble-1500 thermal-mechanical simulation tester with a set of special clamp system. The relationships between the flow stress and the strain rate in the deformation process of simulating roll casting experiment were obtained. The results show that four different characteristic stages exist in the temperature range of the whole rheological process. The first occurs when the temperature is higher than 600 ℃, which belongs to the creep deformation stage; the second occurs when the temperature lies in the range of 500600 ℃, and it can be regarded as the high temperature and low stress level deformation stage; the third occurs when the temperature decreases to the range of 300500 ℃, it is considered to be the middle stress level deformation stage; the last occurs when the temperature is less than 300 ℃ and the strain rate is less than 1.00 s -1, it belongs to middle stress level deformation stage. But when the strain rate is larger than 1.00 s -1,it belongs to the high stress level deformation stage. And the relative constitutive models suitable for the four different stages of continuous roll casting process were established through multivariate linear regression analysis of the experimental data. 展开更多
关键词 aluminum alloy continuous roll casting SIMULATION rheological behavior constitutive relation
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