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基于灰色关联分析和SSA-RF模型的岩爆等级预测 被引量:11
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作者 满轲 武立文 +4 位作者 刘晓丽 宋志飞 柳宗旭 刘汭琳 曹子祥 《金属矿山》 CAS 北大核心 2023年第5期202-212,共11页
矿山巷道、交通隧道等工程中岩爆灾害频发,岩爆预测变得尤为重要。为了提高岩爆等级的预测准确率和预测模型泛化性,提出了一种采用麻雀搜索算法(SSA)优化随机森林算法(RF)模型的SSA-RF模型。考虑岩爆等级预测指标的合理性,综合岩爆成因... 矿山巷道、交通隧道等工程中岩爆灾害频发,岩爆预测变得尤为重要。为了提高岩爆等级的预测准确率和预测模型泛化性,提出了一种采用麻雀搜索算法(SSA)优化随机森林算法(RF)模型的SSA-RF模型。考虑岩爆等级预测指标的合理性,综合岩爆成因特点并根据灰色关联分析结果进行4组方案比选以确定最佳预测指标组合,采用模型的重要度分析验证最佳预测指标组合的合理性。方案一保留全部预测指标作为对比项,方案二筛除与岩爆等级之间灰色关联度较低的两项预测指标,方案三采用复合指标,方案四采用独立指标。搜集了151个岩爆样本数据作为模型数据集,将SSA-RF模型的预测效果与其他7种预测方法进行比较,并分析了不同样本容量的模型敏感性。结果表明:方案二为最佳方案,最佳预测指标组合为围岩切向应力、应力系数、弹性能指数和单轴抗压强度;相比于其他7种预测方法,SSA-RF模型在4组方案中预测准确率均最高且平均准确率达到88.09%,在最佳方案中甚至达到95.23%;SSA-RF模型的预测指标重要度排序较RF模型更合理并有效验证了最佳预测指标组合的合理性;采用SSA优化RF模型可以提高RF模型对不同岩爆样本容量的预测准确率和泛化性,有效弥补了RF模型随机性的不足。综上可知,SSA-RF模型对于实际工程的岩爆等级预测具有可行性和有效性。 展开更多
关键词 岩爆等级预测 灰色关联分析 SSA-RF模型 模型重要度分析 模型敏感性分析
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Black-Scholes模型与经理股票期权的实证研究
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作者 王劲松 《工业技术经济》 2009年第6期142-144,共3页
经理股票期权(Executive Stock Options,ESOs)做为企业高管人员的一种激励方式,是从金融衍生工具股票期权发展而来,其理论起点为传统委托——代理框架下的最优契约理论。本文以经理股票期权作为研究对象,结合Black—Seholes期权... 经理股票期权(Executive Stock Options,ESOs)做为企业高管人员的一种激励方式,是从金融衍生工具股票期权发展而来,其理论起点为传统委托——代理框架下的最优契约理论。本文以经理股票期权作为研究对象,结合Black—Seholes期权定价模型,对中国2006-2008年88家实施股票期权激励的上市公司进行实证研究,得出中国上市公司样本企业股票期权价格与股票期权行权价、授予时股票价格、股票价格波动率、无风险利率、股票期权有效期的相关变化关系。为经理股票期权契约设计提供参考。 展开更多
关键词 经理股票期权 Black—Scholes模型敏感性分析
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Numerical Analysis of Steady Smoldering of Biomass Rods 被引量:1
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作者 Zhao Wentao Yu Guangxin +3 位作者 Zhang Yi Wang Youtang Zhou Dan He Fang 《燃烧科学与技术》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2024年第5期507-519,共13页
Understanding the steady mechanism of biomass smoldering plays a great role in the utilization of smoldering technology.In this study numerical analysis of steady smoldering of biomass rods was performed.A two-dimensi... Understanding the steady mechanism of biomass smoldering plays a great role in the utilization of smoldering technology.In this study numerical analysis of steady smoldering of biomass rods was performed.A two-dimensional(2D)steady model taking into account both char oxidation and pyrolysis was developed on the basis of a calculated propagation velocity according to empirical correlation.The model was validated against the smoldering experiment of biomass rods under natural conditions,and the maximum error was smaller than 31%.Parameter sensitivity analysis found that propagation velocity decreases significantly while oxidation area and pyrolysis zone increase significantly with the increasing diameter of rod fuel. 展开更多
关键词 steady smoldering biomass rod numerical analysis 2D steady model sensitivity analysis
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Temperature gradients in concrete box girder bridge under effect of cold wave 被引量:3
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作者 顾斌 陈志坚 陈欣迪 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2014年第3期1227-1241,共15页
The temperature distributions of a prestressed concrete box girder bridge under the effect of cold wave processes were analyzed. The distributions were found different from those under the effect of solar radiation or... The temperature distributions of a prestressed concrete box girder bridge under the effect of cold wave processes were analyzed. The distributions were found different from those under the effect of solar radiation or nighttime radiation cooling and should not be simplified as one dimensional. A temperature predicting model that can accurately predict temperatures over the cross section of the concrete box girder was developed. On the basis of the analytical model, a two-dimensional temperature gradient model was proposed and a parametric study that considered meteorological factors was performed. The results of sensitivity analysis show that the cold wave with shorter duration and more severe temperature drop may cause more unfavorable influences on the concrete box girder bridge. Finally, the unrestrained linear curvatures, self-equilibrating stresses and bending stresses when considering the frame action of the cross section, were derived from the proposed temperature gradient model and current code provisions, respectively. Then, a comparison was made between the value calculated against proposed model and several current specifications. The results show that the cold wave may cause more unfavorable effect on the concrete box girder bridge, especially on the large concrete box girder bridge. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the thermal effect caused by cold wave during the design stage. 展开更多
关键词 concrete box girder temperature field temperature gradient cold wave
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Parameter sensitivities analysis for classical flutter speed of a horizontal axis wind turbine blade 被引量:11
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作者 GAO Qiang CAI Xin +1 位作者 GUO Xing-wen MENG Rui 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2018年第7期1746-1754,共9页
The parameter sensitivities affecting the flutter speed of the NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory) 5-MW baseline HAWT (horizontal axis wind turbine) blades are analyzed. An aeroelastic model, which compris... The parameter sensitivities affecting the flutter speed of the NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory) 5-MW baseline HAWT (horizontal axis wind turbine) blades are analyzed. An aeroelastic model, which comprises an aerodynamic part to calculate the aerodynamic loads and a structural part to determine the structural dynamic responses, is established to describe the classical flutter of the blades. For the aerodynamic part, Theodorsen unsteady aerodynamics model is used. For the structural part, Lagrange’s equation is employed. The flutter speed is determined by introducing “V–g” method to the aeroelastic model, which converts the issue of classical flutter speed determination into an eigenvalue problem. Furthermore, the time domain aeroelastic response of the wind turbine blade section is obtained with employing Runge-Kutta method. The results show that four cases (i.e., reducing the blade torsional stiffness, moving the center of gravity or the elastic axis towards the trailing edge of the section, and placing the turbine in high air density area) will decrease the flutter speed. Therefore, the judicious selection of the four parameters (the torsional stiffness, the chordwise position of the center of gravity, the elastic axis position and air density) can increase the relative inflow speed at the blade section associated with the onset of flutter. 展开更多
关键词 wind turbine blade aeroelastic model classical flutter parameter sensitivities analysis
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An analytical model for pyrolysis of a single biomass particle 被引量:4
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作者 Mehdi Bidabadi Mohammad Rastegar Moghaddam +2 位作者 Seyed Alireza Mostafavi Farzad Faraji Dizaji Hossein Beidaghy Dizaji 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2015年第1期350-359,共10页
Decreasing in emissions of greenhouse gases to confront the global warming needs to replace fossil fuels as the main doer of the world climate changes by renewable and clean fuels produced from biomass like wood waste... Decreasing in emissions of greenhouse gases to confront the global warming needs to replace fossil fuels as the main doer of the world climate changes by renewable and clean fuels produced from biomass like wood waste which is neutral on the amount of CO2. An analytical and engineering model for pyrolysis process of a single biomass particle has been presented. Using a two-stage semi global kinetic model which includes both primary and secondary reactions, the effects of parameters like shape and size of particle as well as porosity on the particle temperature profile and product yields have been investigated. Comparison of the obtained results with experimental data shows that our results are in a reasonable agreement with previous researchers' works. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is done to determine the importance of each parameter on pyrolysis of a single biomass particle which is affected by many constant parameters. 展开更多
关键词 biomass pyrolysis analytical model single particle sensitivity analysis
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Sensitivity analysis of key input parameters in conditional cell transmission model for oversaturated arterials 被引量:2
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作者 王屏 S.L.JONES +1 位作者 杨群 S.GURUPACKIAM 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2013年第6期1772-1780,共9页
A novel conditional cell transmission model (CCTM) is a potential simulation tool because it accommodates all traffic conditions from light condition to oversaturated condition. To test the performance of the CCTM, ... A novel conditional cell transmission model (CCTM) is a potential simulation tool because it accommodates all traffic conditions from light condition to oversaturated condition. To test the performance of the CCTM, a series of experiments for sensitivity analysis were designed and performed for a multilane, two-way, three-signal sample network. Experiment 1 shows that the model is performed in a logical and expected manner with variations in traffic demand with time and direction. Experiment 2 shows when the possibility of the occurrence of a useful gap increases to 60% and 100%, the delays in left rams decrease by 5% and 15%, respectively. In Experiment 3, comparing the possibility of a conditional cell of 0 with 100%, delay of left turn and delay of the entire network were underestimated by 58% and 11%, respectively. Hence, sensitivity analysis demonstrates that by reflecting local drivers' behaviors properly, the CCTM provides an accurate representation of traffic flow in simulating oversaturated traffic conditions. 展开更多
关键词 oversaturation conditional cell transmission model sensitivity analysis DELAY POSSIBILITY
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