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风险决策的概率权重偏差:心理机制与优化策略 被引量:8
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作者 孙庆洲 邬青渊 +3 位作者 张静 江程铭 赵雷 胡凤培 《心理科学进展》 CSSCI CSCD 北大核心 2019年第5期905-913,共9页
概率权重偏差指人对事件发生的主观概率估计与客观概率的差异。它影响投资、投保、医患沟通等方面。"重结果轻概率"的非补偿性策略和参照点诱发的情绪波动会引发概率权重偏差;改变"概率"的描述形式、"结果&qu... 概率权重偏差指人对事件发生的主观概率估计与客观概率的差异。它影响投资、投保、医患沟通等方面。"重结果轻概率"的非补偿性策略和参照点诱发的情绪波动会引发概率权重偏差;改变"概率"的描述形式、"结果"的情绪体验、"损益"的参照点、风险的心理距离等可调整权重偏差、优化决策。未来需深究权重偏差的适用情境、机制关联及偏差辨别等问题。 展开更多
关键词 概率权重偏差 结果 概率维度 参照点 情绪体验 优化策略
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A numerical simulation of seepage structure surface and its feasibility 被引量:3
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作者 彭康 李夕兵 +1 位作者 王泽伟 刘爱华 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2013年第5期1326-1331,共6页
According to Cubic law and incompressible fluid law of mass conservation, the seepage character of the fracture surface was simulated with the simulation method of fractal theory and random Brown function. Furthermore... According to Cubic law and incompressible fluid law of mass conservation, the seepage character of the fracture surface was simulated with the simulation method of fractal theory and random Brown function. Furthermore, the permeability coefficient of the single fracture was obtained. In order to test the stability of the method, 500 simulations were conducted on each different fractal dimension. The simulated permeability coefficient was analyzed in probability density distribution and probability cumulative distribution statistics. Statistics showed that the discrete degree of the permeability coefficient increases with the increase of the fractal dimension. And the calculation result has better stability when the fractal dimension value is relatively small. According to the Bayes theory, the characteristic index of the permeability coefficient on fractal dimension P(Dfi| Ri) is established. The index, P(Dfi| Ri), shows that when the simulated permeability coefficient is relatively large, it can clearly represent the fractal dimension of the structure surface, the probability is 82%. The calculated results of the characteristic index verify the feasibility of the method. 展开更多
关键词 fractal theory numerical simulation representative elementary volume (REV) random brown function permeabilitycoefficient fractal dimension
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