混煤燃烧存在复杂的相互影响,将混煤当成单一煤种并采用单混合分数/概率密度函数(probability density function,PDF)方法计算,意味着忽略了煤种之间的影响,结果会产生很大偏差。而双混合分数/PDF方法可以分别定义各单煤性质并跟踪各单...混煤燃烧存在复杂的相互影响,将混煤当成单一煤种并采用单混合分数/概率密度函数(probability density function,PDF)方法计算,意味着忽略了煤种之间的影响,结果会产生很大偏差。而双混合分数/PDF方法可以分别定义各单煤性质并跟踪各单煤的燃烧过程,能够体现煤种之间燃烧特性的影响。利用单、双混合分数/PDF方法对同1台300 MW四角切圆锅炉进行模拟研究,并与实测数据进行对比,结果表明:双混合分数/PDF方法模拟的结果更符合混煤在炉内实际的燃烧情况。同时采用双混合分数/PDF方法模拟某一混煤燃烧过程,得到燃烧煤粉锅炉的流动,温度和烟气分布等特性。展开更多
According to Cubic law and incompressible fluid law of mass conservation, the seepage character of the fracture surface was simulated with the simulation method of fractal theory and random Brown function. Furthermore...According to Cubic law and incompressible fluid law of mass conservation, the seepage character of the fracture surface was simulated with the simulation method of fractal theory and random Brown function. Furthermore, the permeability coefficient of the single fracture was obtained. In order to test the stability of the method, 500 simulations were conducted on each different fractal dimension. The simulated permeability coefficient was analyzed in probability density distribution and probability cumulative distribution statistics. Statistics showed that the discrete degree of the permeability coefficient increases with the increase of the fractal dimension. And the calculation result has better stability when the fractal dimension value is relatively small. According to the Bayes theory, the characteristic index of the permeability coefficient on fractal dimension P（Dfi｜ Ri） is established. The index, P（Dfi｜ Ri）, shows that when the simulated permeability coefficient is relatively large, it can clearly represent the fractal dimension of the structure surface, the probability is 82%. The calculated results of the characteristic index verify the feasibility of the method.展开更多
To improve prediction accuracy of strip thickness in hot rolling, a kind of Dempster/Shafer(D_S) information reconstitution prediction method(DSIRPM) was presented. DSIRPM basically consisted of three steps to impleme...To improve prediction accuracy of strip thickness in hot rolling, a kind of Dempster/Shafer(D_S) information reconstitution prediction method(DSIRPM) was presented. DSIRPM basically consisted of three steps to implement the prediction of strip thickness. Firstly, iba Analyzer was employed to analyze the periodicity of hot rolling and find three sensitive parameters to strip thickness, which were used to undertake polynomial curve fitting prediction based on least square respectively, and preliminary prediction results were obtained. Then, D_S evidence theory was used to reconstruct the prediction results under different parameters, in which basic probability assignment(BPA) was the key and the proposed contribution rate calculated using grey relational degree was regarded as BPA, which realizes BPA selection objectively. Finally, from this distribution, future strip thickness trend was inferred. Experimental results clearly show the improved prediction accuracy and stability compared with other prediction models, such as GM(1,1) and the weighted average prediction model.展开更多
The uncertainties of some key influence factors on coal crushing,such as rock strength,pore pressure and magnitude and orientation of three principal stresses,can lead to the uncertainty of coal crushing and make it v...The uncertainties of some key influence factors on coal crushing,such as rock strength,pore pressure and magnitude and orientation of three principal stresses,can lead to the uncertainty of coal crushing and make it very difficult to predict coal crushing under the condition of in-situ reservoir.To account for the uncertainty involved in coal crushing,a deterministic prediction model of coal crushing under the condition of in-situ reservoir was established based on Hoek-Brown criterion.Through this model,key influence factors on coal crushing were selected as random variables and the corresponding probability density functions were determined by combining experiment data and Latin Hypercube method.Then,to analyze the uncertainty of coal crushing,the firstorder second-moment method and the presented model were combined to address the failure probability involved in coal crushing analysis.Using the presented method,the failure probabilities of coal crushing were analyzed for WS5-5 well in Ningwu basin,China,and the relations between failure probability and the influence factors were furthermore discussed.The results show that the failure probabilities of WS5-5 CBM well vary from 0.6 to 1.0; moreover,for the coal seam section at depth of 784.3-785 m,the failure probabilities are equal to 1,which fit well with experiment results; the failure probability of coal crushing presents nonlinear growth relationships with the increase of principal stress difference and the decrease of uniaxial compressive strength.展开更多
Carrying on a series of compression and shear tests by a large number of specimens, reliabilities of T300/QY8911 laminated composite were studied when dispersibility models were described. The results show that the st...Carrying on a series of compression and shear tests by a large number of specimens, reliabilities of T300/QY8911 laminated composite were studied when dispersibility models were described. The results show that the stress is linearly dependent on the strain and the damage modes of specimens are brittle fracture for both kinds of tests. Dispersibility models of compression and shear strength are expressed as Re-N（415.39, 6 586.36） and Rs-ln（5.071 8, 0.155 3）, respectively. When normal and lognormal distributions were used to describe the dispersibility models of compression and shear strength, and the compression or shear load follows the normal distribution, the almost same failure probability can be obtained from different reliability analysis methods.展开更多
The assumption widely used in the user equilibrium model for stochastic network was that the probability distributions of the travel time were known explicitly by travelers. However, this distribution may be unavailab...The assumption widely used in the user equilibrium model for stochastic network was that the probability distributions of the travel time were known explicitly by travelers. However, this distribution may be unavailable in reality. By relaxing the restrictive assumption, a robust user equilibrium model based on cumulative prospect theory under distribution-free travel time was presented. In the absence of the cumulative distribution function of the travel time, the exact cumulative prospect value(CPV) for each route cannot be obtained. However, the upper and lower bounds on the CPV can be calculated by probability inequalities.Travelers were assumed to choose the routes with the best worst-case CPVs. The proposed model was formulated as a variational inequality problem and solved via a heuristic solution algorithm. A numerical example was also provided to illustrate the application of the proposed model and the efficiency of the solution algorithm.展开更多
文摘混煤燃烧存在复杂的相互影响,将混煤当成单一煤种并采用单混合分数/概率密度函数(probability density function,PDF)方法计算,意味着忽略了煤种之间的影响,结果会产生很大偏差。而双混合分数/PDF方法可以分别定义各单煤性质并跟踪各单煤的燃烧过程,能够体现煤种之间燃烧特性的影响。利用单、双混合分数/PDF方法对同1台300 MW四角切圆锅炉进行模拟研究,并与实测数据进行对比,结果表明:双混合分数/PDF方法模拟的结果更符合混煤在炉内实际的燃烧情况。同时采用双混合分数/PDF方法模拟某一混煤燃烧过程,得到燃烧煤粉锅炉的流动,温度和烟气分布等特性。
基金Project(50934006) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(CX2012B070) supported by Hunan Provincial Innovation Foundation for Postgraduate,ChinaProject(1343-76140000024) Supported by Academic New Artist Ministry of Education Doctoral Post Graduate in 2012,China
文摘According to Cubic law and incompressible fluid law of mass conservation, the seepage character of the fracture surface was simulated with the simulation method of fractal theory and random Brown function. Furthermore, the permeability coefficient of the single fracture was obtained. In order to test the stability of the method, 500 simulations were conducted on each different fractal dimension. The simulated permeability coefficient was analyzed in probability density distribution and probability cumulative distribution statistics. Statistics showed that the discrete degree of the permeability coefficient increases with the increase of the fractal dimension. And the calculation result has better stability when the fractal dimension value is relatively small. According to the Bayes theory, the characteristic index of the permeability coefficient on fractal dimension P（Dfi｜ Ri） is established. The index, P（Dfi｜ Ri）, shows that when the simulated permeability coefficient is relatively large, it can clearly represent the fractal dimension of the structure surface, the probability is 82%. The calculated results of the characteristic index verify the feasibility of the method.
基金Projects(61174115,51104044)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(L2010153)supported by Scientific Research Project of Liaoning Provincial Education Department,China
文摘To improve prediction accuracy of strip thickness in hot rolling, a kind of Dempster/Shafer(D_S) information reconstitution prediction method(DSIRPM) was presented. DSIRPM basically consisted of three steps to implement the prediction of strip thickness. Firstly, iba Analyzer was employed to analyze the periodicity of hot rolling and find three sensitive parameters to strip thickness, which were used to undertake polynomial curve fitting prediction based on least square respectively, and preliminary prediction results were obtained. Then, D_S evidence theory was used to reconstruct the prediction results under different parameters, in which basic probability assignment(BPA) was the key and the proposed contribution rate calculated using grey relational degree was regarded as BPA, which realizes BPA selection objectively. Finally, from this distribution, future strip thickness trend was inferred. Experimental results clearly show the improved prediction accuracy and stability compared with other prediction models, such as GM(1,1) and the weighted average prediction model.
基金Project(51204201)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProjects(2011ZX05036-001,2011ZX05037-004)supported by the National Science and Technology Major Program of China+1 种基金Project(2010CB226706)supported by the National Basic Research Program of ChinaProject(11CX04050A)supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China
文摘The uncertainties of some key influence factors on coal crushing,such as rock strength,pore pressure and magnitude and orientation of three principal stresses,can lead to the uncertainty of coal crushing and make it very difficult to predict coal crushing under the condition of in-situ reservoir.To account for the uncertainty involved in coal crushing,a deterministic prediction model of coal crushing under the condition of in-situ reservoir was established based on Hoek-Brown criterion.Through this model,key influence factors on coal crushing were selected as random variables and the corresponding probability density functions were determined by combining experiment data and Latin Hypercube method.Then,to analyze the uncertainty of coal crushing,the firstorder second-moment method and the presented model were combined to address the failure probability involved in coal crushing analysis.Using the presented method,the failure probabilities of coal crushing were analyzed for WS5-5 well in Ningwu basin,China,and the relations between failure probability and the influence factors were furthermore discussed.The results show that the failure probabilities of WS5-5 CBM well vary from 0.6 to 1.0; moreover,for the coal seam section at depth of 784.3-785 m,the failure probabilities are equal to 1,which fit well with experiment results; the failure probability of coal crushing presents nonlinear growth relationships with the increase of principal stress difference and the decrease of uniaxial compressive strength.
基金Project(51175424) supported by the National Natural Science FoundationProject(B07050) supported by the 111 Project,ChinaProject (JC20110257) supported by the Basic Research Foundation of Northwestern Polytechnical University
文摘Carrying on a series of compression and shear tests by a large number of specimens, reliabilities of T300/QY8911 laminated composite were studied when dispersibility models were described. The results show that the stress is linearly dependent on the strain and the damage modes of specimens are brittle fracture for both kinds of tests. Dispersibility models of compression and shear strength are expressed as Re-N（415.39, 6 586.36） and Rs-ln（5.071 8, 0.155 3）, respectively. When normal and lognormal distributions were used to describe the dispersibility models of compression and shear strength, and the compression or shear load follows the normal distribution, the almost same failure probability can be obtained from different reliability analysis methods.
基金Project(2012CB725400)supported by the National Basic Research Program of ChinaProjects(71271023,71322102,7121001)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘The assumption widely used in the user equilibrium model for stochastic network was that the probability distributions of the travel time were known explicitly by travelers. However, this distribution may be unavailable in reality. By relaxing the restrictive assumption, a robust user equilibrium model based on cumulative prospect theory under distribution-free travel time was presented. In the absence of the cumulative distribution function of the travel time, the exact cumulative prospect value(CPV) for each route cannot be obtained. However, the upper and lower bounds on the CPV can be calculated by probability inequalities.Travelers were assumed to choose the routes with the best worst-case CPVs. The proposed model was formulated as a variational inequality problem and solved via a heuristic solution algorithm. A numerical example was also provided to illustrate the application of the proposed model and the efficiency of the solution algorithm.
