A novel method under the interactive multiple model (IMM) filtering framework is presented in this paper, in which the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is used to identify the process noise covariance Q online....A novel method under the interactive multiple model (IMM) filtering framework is presented in this paper, in which the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is used to identify the process noise covariance Q online. For the existing IMM filtering theory, the matrix Q is determined by means of design experience, but Q is actually changed with the state of the maneuvering target. Meanwhile it is severely influenced by the environment around the target, i.e., it is a variable of time. Therefore, the experiential covariance Q can not represent the influence of state noise in the maneuvering process exactly. Firstly, it is assumed that the evolved state and the initial conditions of the system can be modeled by using Gaussian distribution, although the dynamic system is of a nonlinear measurement equation, and furthermore the EM algorithm based on IMM filtering with the Q identification online is proposed. Secondly, the truncated error analysis is performed. Finally, the Monte Carlo simulation results are given to show that the proposed algorithm outperforms the existing algorithms and the tracking precision for the maneuvering targets is improved efficiently.展开更多
提出了一类用于非线性时间序列建模的混合自回归滑动平均模型(MARMA).该模型是由K个平稳或非平稳的ARMA分量经过混合得到的.讨论了MARMA模型的平稳性条件和自相关函数.给出了MARMA模型参数估计的期望极大化(expectation maximization)算...提出了一类用于非线性时间序列建模的混合自回归滑动平均模型(MARMA).该模型是由K个平稳或非平稳的ARMA分量经过混合得到的.讨论了MARMA模型的平稳性条件和自相关函数.给出了MARMA模型参数估计的期望极大化(expectation maximization)算法.运用贝叶斯信息准则(Bayes information criterion)来选择该模型.MARMA模型分布形式富于变化的特征使得它能够对具有多峰分布以及条件异方差的序列进行建模.通过两个实例验证了该模型,并和其他模型进行比较,结果表明MARMA模型能够更好地描述这些数据的特征.展开更多
基金Supported by the National Key Fundamental Research & Development Programs of P. R. China (2001CB309403)
文摘A novel method under the interactive multiple model (IMM) filtering framework is presented in this paper, in which the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is used to identify the process noise covariance Q online. For the existing IMM filtering theory, the matrix Q is determined by means of design experience, but Q is actually changed with the state of the maneuvering target. Meanwhile it is severely influenced by the environment around the target, i.e., it is a variable of time. Therefore, the experiential covariance Q can not represent the influence of state noise in the maneuvering process exactly. Firstly, it is assumed that the evolved state and the initial conditions of the system can be modeled by using Gaussian distribution, although the dynamic system is of a nonlinear measurement equation, and furthermore the EM algorithm based on IMM filtering with the Q identification online is proposed. Secondly, the truncated error analysis is performed. Finally, the Monte Carlo simulation results are given to show that the proposed algorithm outperforms the existing algorithms and the tracking precision for the maneuvering targets is improved efficiently.
文摘提出了一类用于非线性时间序列建模的混合自回归滑动平均模型(MARMA).该模型是由K个平稳或非平稳的ARMA分量经过混合得到的.讨论了MARMA模型的平稳性条件和自相关函数.给出了MARMA模型参数估计的期望极大化(expectation maximization)算法.运用贝叶斯信息准则(Bayes information criterion)来选择该模型.MARMA模型分布形式富于变化的特征使得它能够对具有多峰分布以及条件异方差的序列进行建模.通过两个实例验证了该模型,并和其他模型进行比较,结果表明MARMA模型能够更好地描述这些数据的特征.
