针对多尺度时间序列各尺度发展趋势及整体预测问题,建立小波分解回声状态网络预测模型(wavelet decomposi-tion and echo state networks,WDESN),根据各尺度的不同性质选取与之相匹配的回声状态网络模型(echo state networks,ESN),同时...针对多尺度时间序列各尺度发展趋势及整体预测问题,建立小波分解回声状态网络预测模型(wavelet decomposi-tion and echo state networks,WDESN),根据各尺度的不同性质选取与之相匹配的回声状态网络模型(echo state networks,ESN),同时,通过在各尺度条件下引入权值系数实现预测分量最优整合,提高整体预测精度。预测带噪多尺度正弦序列实验表明:WDESN模型与ESN、支持向量机及BP神经网络模型相比预测精度较高。目前,该模型已成功用于移动通信话务量的预测,并满足了现实系统的精度要求。展开更多
A model of vibrating device coupling two pendulums (VDP) which is highly nonlinear was put forward to conduct vibration analysis. Based on energy analysis, dynamic equations with cubic nonlinearities were established ...A model of vibrating device coupling two pendulums (VDP) which is highly nonlinear was put forward to conduct vibration analysis. Based on energy analysis, dynamic equations with cubic nonlinearities were established using Lagrange's equation. In order to obtain approximate solution, multiple time scales method, one of perturbation technique, was applied. Cases of non-resonant and 1:1:2:2 internal resonant were discussed. In the non-resonant case, the validity of multiple time scales method is confirmed, comparing numerical results derived from fourth order Runge-Kutta method with analytical results derived from first order approximate expression. In the 1:1:2:2 internal resonant case, modal amplitudes of Aa1 and Ab2 increase, respectively, from 0.38 to 0.63 and from 0.19 to 0.32, while the corresponding frequencies have an increase of almost 1.6 times with changes of initial conditions, indicating the existence of typical nonlinear phenomenon. In addition, the chaotic motion is found under this condition.展开更多
文摘针对多尺度时间序列各尺度发展趋势及整体预测问题,建立小波分解回声状态网络预测模型(wavelet decomposi-tion and echo state networks,WDESN),根据各尺度的不同性质选取与之相匹配的回声状态网络模型(echo state networks,ESN),同时,通过在各尺度条件下引入权值系数实现预测分量最优整合,提高整体预测精度。预测带噪多尺度正弦序列实验表明:WDESN模型与ESN、支持向量机及BP神经网络模型相比预测精度较高。目前,该模型已成功用于移动通信话务量的预测,并满足了现实系统的精度要求。
基金Projects(50574091, 50774084) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject supported by the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions+1 种基金Project(CXLX12_0949) supported by Research and Innovation Project for College Graduates of Jiangsu Province, ChinaProject(2013DXS03) supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, China
文摘A model of vibrating device coupling two pendulums (VDP) which is highly nonlinear was put forward to conduct vibration analysis. Based on energy analysis, dynamic equations with cubic nonlinearities were established using Lagrange's equation. In order to obtain approximate solution, multiple time scales method, one of perturbation technique, was applied. Cases of non-resonant and 1:1:2:2 internal resonant were discussed. In the non-resonant case, the validity of multiple time scales method is confirmed, comparing numerical results derived from fourth order Runge-Kutta method with analytical results derived from first order approximate expression. In the 1:1:2:2 internal resonant case, modal amplitudes of Aa1 and Ab2 increase, respectively, from 0.38 to 0.63 and from 0.19 to 0.32, while the corresponding frequencies have an increase of almost 1.6 times with changes of initial conditions, indicating the existence of typical nonlinear phenomenon. In addition, the chaotic motion is found under this condition.
