Short-term forecasting is a difficult problem because of the influence of non-linear factors and irregular events.A novel short-term forecasting method named TIK was proposed,in which ARMA forecasting model was used t...Short-term forecasting is a difficult problem because of the influence of non-linear factors and irregular events.A novel short-term forecasting method named TIK was proposed,in which ARMA forecasting model was used to consider the load time series trend forecasting,intelligence forecasting DESVR model was applied to estimate the non-linear influence,and knowledge mining methods were applied to correct the errors caused by irregular events.In order to prove the effectiveness of the proposed model,an application of the daily maximum load forecasting was evaluated.The experimental results show that the DESVR model improves the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) from 2.82% to 2.55%,and the knowledge rules can improve the MAPE from 2.55% to 2.30%.Compared with the single ARMA forecasting method and ARMA combined SVR forecasting method,it can be proved that TIK method gains the best performance in short-term load forecasting.展开更多
In order to improve the screening efficiency of vibrating screen and make vibration process smooth,a new type of magnetorheological (MR) damper was proposed. The signals of displacement in the vibration process during...In order to improve the screening efficiency of vibrating screen and make vibration process smooth,a new type of magnetorheological (MR) damper was proposed. The signals of displacement in the vibration process during the test were collected. The trispectrum model of autoregressive (AR) time series was built and the correlation dimension was used to quantify the fractal characteristics during the vibration process. The result shows that,in different working conditions,trispectrum slices are applied to obtaining the information of non-Gaussian,nonlinear amplitude?frequency characteristics of the signal. Besides,there is correlation between the correlation dimension of vibration signal and trispectrum slices,which is very important to select the optimum working parameters of the MR damper and vibrating screen. And in the experimental conditions,it is found that when the working current of MR damper is 2 A and the rotation speed of vibration motor is 800 r/min,the vibration screen reaches its maximum screening efficiency.展开更多
基金Projects(70671039,71071052) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProjects(10QX44,09QX68) supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities in China
文摘Short-term forecasting is a difficult problem because of the influence of non-linear factors and irregular events.A novel short-term forecasting method named TIK was proposed,in which ARMA forecasting model was used to consider the load time series trend forecasting,intelligence forecasting DESVR model was applied to estimate the non-linear influence,and knowledge mining methods were applied to correct the errors caused by irregular events.In order to prove the effectiveness of the proposed model,an application of the daily maximum load forecasting was evaluated.The experimental results show that the DESVR model improves the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) from 2.82% to 2.55%,and the knowledge rules can improve the MAPE from 2.55% to 2.30%.Compared with the single ARMA forecasting method and ARMA combined SVR forecasting method,it can be proved that TIK method gains the best performance in short-term load forecasting.
基金Project(50975098) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2008HZ0002-1) supported by the Major Scientific and Technological Program of Fujian Province,China
文摘In order to improve the screening efficiency of vibrating screen and make vibration process smooth,a new type of magnetorheological (MR) damper was proposed. The signals of displacement in the vibration process during the test were collected. The trispectrum model of autoregressive (AR) time series was built and the correlation dimension was used to quantify the fractal characteristics during the vibration process. The result shows that,in different working conditions,trispectrum slices are applied to obtaining the information of non-Gaussian,nonlinear amplitude?frequency characteristics of the signal. Besides,there is correlation between the correlation dimension of vibration signal and trispectrum slices,which is very important to select the optimum working parameters of the MR damper and vibrating screen. And in the experimental conditions,it is found that when the working current of MR damper is 2 A and the rotation speed of vibration motor is 800 r/min,the vibration screen reaches its maximum screening efficiency.
