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基于GRA/EEMD-Informer混合模型的光储直柔配电系统多数据预测方法 被引量:1
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作者 王炳铮 岳云涛 +1 位作者 李炳华 万珊珊 《电力科学与技术学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2024年第3期86-95,共10页
针对现有时间序列模型预测光储直柔配电系统短期发用电数据精度不高的问题,提出一种基于灰色关联度分析/集合经验模态分解(grey relation analysis,ensemble empirical mode decomposition,GRA/EEMD-Informer)的光储直柔配电系统多数据... 针对现有时间序列模型预测光储直柔配电系统短期发用电数据精度不高的问题,提出一种基于灰色关联度分析/集合经验模态分解(grey relation analysis,ensemble empirical mode decomposition,GRA/EEMD-Informer)的光储直柔配电系统多数据预测模型,通过灰色关联度分析、模态分解,结合自注意力蒸馏机制,有效捕捉输出和输入之间较精确的长程相关性耦合,降低了时空复杂度,极大缓解了传统编解码的局限性。将已建成并投入使用的光伏发电站某月数据、典型办公建筑某月电力数据及电动汽车充电站运行数据作为原始数据,以均方误差、平均绝对误差、均方根误差作为评价指标对模型进行检验,并进行消融实验与分析,最后与长短期记忆网络(long short-term memory,LSTM)、基于粒子群优化(particle swarm optimization,PSO)算法的长短期记忆网络(PSO-LSTM)、Transformer时间序列预测方法对比,结果表明该方法的拟合程度明显高于其他预测方法,验证了GRA/EEMDInformer算法对提高预测能力的有效性和实用性。 展开更多
关键词 光储直柔 GRA/EEMD-Informer 光伏发电输出功率 建筑电力负荷 电动汽车负荷
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Sensitivity to electricity consumption in urban business and commercial area buildings according to climatic change
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作者 LEE Kang-guk KIM Sung-bum HONG Won-hwa 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2012年第3期770-776,共7页
Recently, urban high temperature phenomenon has become a problem which results from human activities, the increase in energy consumption, and land-cover change in urban areas. As extremely hot weather caused by urban ... Recently, urban high temperature phenomenon has become a problem which results from human activities, the increase in energy consumption, and land-cover change in urban areas. As extremely hot weather caused by urban high temperature continues, demand for power is increased and results in the degradation of electricity reserves. The current trend in climate change, regardless of the summer and winter power demand, is likely to have much effect on the power demand. Thus, sensitivity to electricity consumption in urban areas due to climate change was researched. The results show that, 1) the basic unit of the sensitivity to electricity consumption in the target areas is 1.25-1.58W/(m2.℃); 2) The maximum sensitivity is recorded at around 8:00 pm in the area crowded with commercial and business area. And in the business area, electricity consumption load is even from 9:00 am to 6:00 pm. 展开更多
关键词 electricity consumption electricity load electricity reserves energy
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