A method was proposed to evaluate the real-time reliability for a single product based on damaged measurement degradation data.Most researches on degradation analysis often assumed that the measurement process did not...A method was proposed to evaluate the real-time reliability for a single product based on damaged measurement degradation data.Most researches on degradation analysis often assumed that the measurement process did not have any impact on the product's performance.However,in some cases,the measurement process may exert extra stress on products being measured.To obtain trustful results in such a situation,a new degradation model was derived.Then,by fusing the prior information of product and its own on-line degradation data,the real-time reliability was evaluated on the basis of Bayesian formula.To make the proposed method more practical,a procedure based on expectation maximization (EM) algorithm was presented to estimate the unknown parameters.Finally,the performance of the proposed method was illustrated by a simulation study.The results show that ignoring the influence of the damaged measurement process can lead to biased evaluation results,if the damaged measurement process is involved.展开更多
Methodology for the reliability analysis of hydraulic gravity dam is the key technology in current hydropower construction.Reliability analysis for the dynamical dam safety should be divided into two phases:failure mo...Methodology for the reliability analysis of hydraulic gravity dam is the key technology in current hydropower construction.Reliability analysis for the dynamical dam safety should be divided into two phases:failure mode identification and the calculation of the failure probability.Both of them are studied based on the mathematical statistics and structure reliability theory considering two kinds of uncertainty characters(earthquake variability and material randomness).Firstly,failure mode identification method is established based on the dynamical limit state system and verified through example of Koyna Dam so that the statistical law of progressive failure process in dam body are revealed; Secondly,for the calculation of the failure probability,mathematical model and formula are established according to the characteristics of gravity dam,which include three levels,that is element failure,path failure and system failure.A case study is presented to show the practical application of theoretical method and results of these methods.展开更多
基金Project(60904002)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘A method was proposed to evaluate the real-time reliability for a single product based on damaged measurement degradation data.Most researches on degradation analysis often assumed that the measurement process did not have any impact on the product's performance.However,in some cases,the measurement process may exert extra stress on products being measured.To obtain trustful results in such a situation,a new degradation model was derived.Then,by fusing the prior information of product and its own on-line degradation data,the real-time reliability was evaluated on the basis of Bayesian formula.To make the proposed method more practical,a procedure based on expectation maximization (EM) algorithm was presented to estimate the unknown parameters.Finally,the performance of the proposed method was illustrated by a simulation study.The results show that ignoring the influence of the damaged measurement process can lead to biased evaluation results,if the damaged measurement process is involved.
基金Projects(51021004,51379141)supported by the Foundation for Innovative Research Groups of the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Methodology for the reliability analysis of hydraulic gravity dam is the key technology in current hydropower construction.Reliability analysis for the dynamical dam safety should be divided into two phases:failure mode identification and the calculation of the failure probability.Both of them are studied based on the mathematical statistics and structure reliability theory considering two kinds of uncertainty characters(earthquake variability and material randomness).Firstly,failure mode identification method is established based on the dynamical limit state system and verified through example of Koyna Dam so that the statistical law of progressive failure process in dam body are revealed; Secondly,for the calculation of the failure probability,mathematical model and formula are established according to the characteristics of gravity dam,which include three levels,that is element failure,path failure and system failure.A case study is presented to show the practical application of theoretical method and results of these methods.
