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我国未来城镇人口规模及人口结构变动预测 被引量:22
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作者 路锦非 王桂新 《西北人口》 CSSCI 2010年第4期1-6,11,共7页
对城镇人口规模和结构变动给予合理预测,有助于政府预估社会的劳动力供给和养老压力,进而制定合理高效的社会保障政策和进行相应政策调整。本文从规范的人口学角度,采用队列要素法通过年龄移算,在考虑城镇人口基数、出生率、死亡率、性... 对城镇人口规模和结构变动给予合理预测,有助于政府预估社会的劳动力供给和养老压力,进而制定合理高效的社会保障政策和进行相应政策调整。本文从规范的人口学角度,采用队列要素法通过年龄移算,在考虑城镇人口基数、出生率、死亡率、性别比以及城市化背景下乡城人口的净迁移率等多个参数的情况下,通过编制我国城镇人口生命表,对从现在起至未来2030年的时间内我国城镇人口的规模和结构进行动态预测,从而为我国制定合理而有针对性的城镇人口政策和经济政策提供参考。 展开更多
关键词 城镇人口 规模 结构 变动预测
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A novel method to predict static transmission error for spur gear pair based on accuracy grade 被引量:4
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作者 LIU Chang SHI Wan-kai +1 位作者 Francesca Maria CURÀ Andrea MURA 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2020年第11期3334-3349,共16页
This paper proposes a novel method to predict the spur gear pair’s static transmission error based on the accuracy grade,in which manufacturing errors(MEs),assembly errors(AEs),tooth deflections(TDs)and profile modif... This paper proposes a novel method to predict the spur gear pair’s static transmission error based on the accuracy grade,in which manufacturing errors(MEs),assembly errors(AEs),tooth deflections(TDs)and profile modifications(PMs)are considered.For the prediction,a discrete gear model for generating the error tooth profile based on the ISO accuracy grade is presented.Then,the gear model and a tooth deflection model for calculating the tooth compliance on gear meshing are coupled with the transmission error model to make the prediction by checking the interference status between gear and pinion.The prediction method is validated by comparison with the experimental results from the literature,and a set of cases are simulated to study the effects of MEs,AEs,TDs and PMs on the static transmission error.In addition,the time-varying backlash caused by both MEs and AEs,and the contact ratio under load conditions are also investigated.The results show that the novel method can effectively predict the range of the static transmission error under different accuracy grades.The prediction results can provide references for the selection of gear design parameters and the optimization of transmission performance in the design stage of gear systems. 展开更多
关键词 gear transmission error time-varying backlash prediction method accuracy grade
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Model of critical strain for dynamic recrystallization in 10%TiC/Cu-Al_2O_3 composite 被引量:4
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作者 杨志强 刘勇 +1 位作者 田保红 张毅 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2014年第11期4059-4065,共7页
Using the Gleeble-1500 D simulator, the hot deformation behavior and dynamic recrystallization critical conditions of the 10%Ti C/Cu-Al2O3(volume fraction) composite were investigated by compression tests at the tempe... Using the Gleeble-1500 D simulator, the hot deformation behavior and dynamic recrystallization critical conditions of the 10%Ti C/Cu-Al2O3(volume fraction) composite were investigated by compression tests at the temperatures from 450 °C to 850 °C with the strain rates from 0.001 s-1 to 1 s-1. The results show that the softening mechanism of the dynamic recrystallization is a feature of high-temperature flow true stress-strain curves of the composite, and the peak stress increases with the decreasing deformation temperature or the increasing strain rate. The thermal deformation activation energy was calculated as 170.732 k J/mol and the constitutive equation was established. The inflection point in the lnθ-ε curve appears and the minimum value of-(lnθ)/ε-ε curve is presented when the critical state is attained for this composite. The critical strain increases with the increasing strain rate or the decreasing deformation temperature. There is linear relationship between critical strain and peak strain, i.e., εc=0.572εp. The predicting model of critical strain is described by the function of εc=1.062×10-2Z0.0826. 展开更多
关键词 10%Ti C/Cu-Al2O3 composite hot deformation constitutive equation dynamic recrystallization critical condition
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