目的系统分析我国出生预期寿命(life expectancy at birth,LE_(0))与出生健康预期寿命(healthy life expectancy at birth,HLE_(0))的长期变动趋势及其驱动力,进一步探讨HLE_(0)在社会经济发展和人口健康核心价值等方面的多维意涵,为我...目的系统分析我国出生预期寿命(life expectancy at birth,LE_(0))与出生健康预期寿命(healthy life expectancy at birth,HLE_(0))的长期变动趋势及其驱动力,进一步探讨HLE_(0)在社会经济发展和人口健康核心价值等方面的多维意涵,为我国人口健康的长期政策规划决策提供科学依据。方法基于联合国死亡率数据、全球疾病负担研究数据和全国残疾人抽样调查数据,使用寿命表方法和Sullivan方法计算LE_(0)及不同健康测度下的HLE_(0),在此基础上使用Arriaga分解法与连续变化分解法估计LE_(0)和HLE_(0)变动趋势下年龄别死亡和健康贡献,并创新性引入队列分析视角,探究死亡和健康贡献的队列效应与时期效应。结果我国LE_(0)的年均增幅自20世纪70年代中叶逐步放缓,老年人口对LE_(0)提升的贡献因年轻和中年人口贡献下降而相对凸显;HLE_(0)的变动中,除老年人群外,儿童青少年(5~14岁)中死亡、健康贡献同样明显,特别是近10年该年龄段伤残率、残疾率的上升阻碍了HLE_(0)的提高。通过对HLE_(0)趋势变动驱动力的队列维度重构,研究发现死亡贡献呈现显著的队列差异,而伤残贡献则体现明显的时期差异。结论我国LE_(0)与HLE_(0)的长期变动呈现由低龄向高龄主导的结构转变,其中死亡率下降仍是HLE_(0)提升的主要驱动力,但近年儿童青少年伤残负担上升已成为新的健康挑战。HLE_(0)作为健康中国战略下的复合性指标,具有识别重点干预群体、衡量健康公平、引导资源配置的多重战略价值。展开更多
In the last two decades, the capital profit rate had taken on a declined trend, while the total output was increasing in industry section. In this article, we proposed three assumptions to explain this phenomenon. The...In the last two decades, the capital profit rate had taken on a declined trend, while the total output was increasing in industry section. In this article, we proposed three assumptions to explain this phenomenon. The statistics studies which base on the data of 1963～2003 suggests that: the factors that affected the capital profit rate have large changed between the two different periods. The descent of capital efficiency in the period of economic reformed can be attributed to: the deviation of technology option, the increased of firms’ quantity and the accented of input material price.展开更多
文摘目的系统分析我国出生预期寿命(life expectancy at birth,LE_(0))与出生健康预期寿命(healthy life expectancy at birth,HLE_(0))的长期变动趋势及其驱动力,进一步探讨HLE_(0)在社会经济发展和人口健康核心价值等方面的多维意涵,为我国人口健康的长期政策规划决策提供科学依据。方法基于联合国死亡率数据、全球疾病负担研究数据和全国残疾人抽样调查数据,使用寿命表方法和Sullivan方法计算LE_(0)及不同健康测度下的HLE_(0),在此基础上使用Arriaga分解法与连续变化分解法估计LE_(0)和HLE_(0)变动趋势下年龄别死亡和健康贡献,并创新性引入队列分析视角,探究死亡和健康贡献的队列效应与时期效应。结果我国LE_(0)的年均增幅自20世纪70年代中叶逐步放缓,老年人口对LE_(0)提升的贡献因年轻和中年人口贡献下降而相对凸显;HLE_(0)的变动中,除老年人群外,儿童青少年(5~14岁)中死亡、健康贡献同样明显,特别是近10年该年龄段伤残率、残疾率的上升阻碍了HLE_(0)的提高。通过对HLE_(0)趋势变动驱动力的队列维度重构,研究发现死亡贡献呈现显著的队列差异,而伤残贡献则体现明显的时期差异。结论我国LE_(0)与HLE_(0)的长期变动呈现由低龄向高龄主导的结构转变,其中死亡率下降仍是HLE_(0)提升的主要驱动力,但近年儿童青少年伤残负担上升已成为新的健康挑战。HLE_(0)作为健康中国战略下的复合性指标,具有识别重点干预群体、衡量健康公平、引导资源配置的多重战略价值。
文摘In the last two decades, the capital profit rate had taken on a declined trend, while the total output was increasing in industry section. In this article, we proposed three assumptions to explain this phenomenon. The statistics studies which base on the data of 1963～2003 suggests that: the factors that affected the capital profit rate have large changed between the two different periods. The descent of capital efficiency in the period of economic reformed can be attributed to: the deviation of technology option, the increased of firms’ quantity and the accented of input material price.
