针对城市轨道交通OD客流量短时预测问题,提出基于向量自回归(Vector Auto Regression,VAR)和动态模式分解(Dynamic Mode Decomposition,DMD)的VAR-DMD组合预测模型.首先,以北京市范围内的地铁站点为例,基于自动售检票系统数据(Auto Fare...针对城市轨道交通OD客流量短时预测问题,提出基于向量自回归(Vector Auto Regression,VAR)和动态模式分解(Dynamic Mode Decomposition,DMD)的VAR-DMD组合预测模型.首先,以北京市范围内的地铁站点为例,基于自动售检票系统数据(Auto Fare Collection,AFC),对地铁OD客流进行时空特征分析;其次,构建高阶加权向量自回归模型捕获OD客流数据的时空关联性,利用动态模式分解算法估算模型的参数,提取OD客流数据动态特征,实现数据的降维和降噪,利用实时更新算法更新模型的参数,实现长期连续预测;最后,以北京地铁AFC数据为算例,对模型进行验证.研究结果表明:相较于基准模型,VAR-DMD模型的运行时间减少96.67%,预测误差减少2.6%,具有较高的预测速度和预测精度,为城市轨道交通运营管理部门提供了可靠又及时的决策依据.展开更多
In order to maintain vibration performances within the limits of the design, a vibration-based feature extraction method for dynamic characteristic using empirical mode decomposition （EMD） and wavelet analysis was p...In order to maintain vibration performances within the limits of the design, a vibration-based feature extraction method for dynamic characteristic using empirical mode decomposition （EMD） and wavelet analysis was proposed. The proposed method was verified experimentally and numerically by implementing the scheme on engine block. In the implementation process, the following steps were identified to be important： 1） EMD technique in order to solve the feature extraction of vibration signals; 2） Vibration measurement for the purpose of confirming the structural weak regions of engine block in experiment; 3） Finite element modeling for the purpose of determining dynamic characteristic in time region and frequency region to affirm the comparability of response character corresponding to improvement schemes; 4） Adopting a feature index oflMF for structural improvement based on EMD and wavelet analysis. The obtained results show that IMF of signal is more sensitive to response character corresponding to improvement schemes. Finally, examination of the results confirms that the proposed vibration-based feature extraction method is very robust, and focuses on the relative merits of modification and full-scale structural optimization of engine, together with the creation of new low-vibration designs.展开更多
文摘针对城市轨道交通OD客流量短时预测问题,提出基于向量自回归(Vector Auto Regression,VAR)和动态模式分解(Dynamic Mode Decomposition,DMD)的VAR-DMD组合预测模型.首先,以北京市范围内的地铁站点为例,基于自动售检票系统数据(Auto Fare Collection,AFC),对地铁OD客流进行时空特征分析;其次,构建高阶加权向量自回归模型捕获OD客流数据的时空关联性,利用动态模式分解算法估算模型的参数,提取OD客流数据动态特征,实现数据的降维和降噪,利用实时更新算法更新模型的参数,实现长期连续预测;最后,以北京地铁AFC数据为算例,对模型进行验证.研究结果表明:相较于基准模型,VAR-DMD模型的运行时间减少96.67%,预测误差减少2.6%,具有较高的预测速度和预测精度,为城市轨道交通运营管理部门提供了可靠又及时的决策依据.
基金Project(50975192) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(10YFJZJC14100) supported by Tianjin Municipal Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘In order to maintain vibration performances within the limits of the design, a vibration-based feature extraction method for dynamic characteristic using empirical mode decomposition （EMD） and wavelet analysis was proposed. The proposed method was verified experimentally and numerically by implementing the scheme on engine block. In the implementation process, the following steps were identified to be important： 1） EMD technique in order to solve the feature extraction of vibration signals; 2） Vibration measurement for the purpose of confirming the structural weak regions of engine block in experiment; 3） Finite element modeling for the purpose of determining dynamic characteristic in time region and frequency region to affirm the comparability of response character corresponding to improvement schemes; 4） Adopting a feature index oflMF for structural improvement based on EMD and wavelet analysis. The obtained results show that IMF of signal is more sensitive to response character corresponding to improvement schemes. Finally, examination of the results confirms that the proposed vibration-based feature extraction method is very robust, and focuses on the relative merits of modification and full-scale structural optimization of engine, together with the creation of new low-vibration designs.
