基于黄河流域101个气象站点的实测气象数据和国际耦合模式比较计划第5阶段(coupled model intercomparison project phase 5,CMIP5)3种排放情景下的6个模型1961—2099年的降水和气温数据,采用等距离累积分布函数法(equidistant cumulati...基于黄河流域101个气象站点的实测气象数据和国际耦合模式比较计划第5阶段(coupled model intercomparison project phase 5,CMIP5)3种排放情景下的6个模型1961—2099年的降水和气温数据,采用等距离累积分布函数法(equidistant cumulative distribution function matching method,EDCDFm)进行统计降尺度;通过历史阶段(1961—2005年)实测站点数据对降尺度后的降水和气温进行精度评估;在此基础上,通过标准化降水指数(standardprecipitation index,SPI)对黄河流域气象干旱进行预估。结果表明,EDCDFm的降尺度方法能够明显提高气候模式所模拟的气温和降水精度,尤其对极值的模拟精度;黄河流域气象干旱的预估显示,3种气候情景下21世纪初的干旱情况相对于基准期均变得比较严重,但是世纪末的干旱程度均明显减轻,近期黄河流域的防旱工作形势仍然严峻。展开更多
The assumption widely used in the user equilibrium model for stochastic network was that the probability distributions of the travel time were known explicitly by travelers. However, this distribution may be unavailab...The assumption widely used in the user equilibrium model for stochastic network was that the probability distributions of the travel time were known explicitly by travelers. However, this distribution may be unavailable in reality. By relaxing the restrictive assumption, a robust user equilibrium model based on cumulative prospect theory under distribution-free travel time was presented. In the absence of the cumulative distribution function of the travel time, the exact cumulative prospect value(CPV) for each route cannot be obtained. However, the upper and lower bounds on the CPV can be calculated by probability inequalities.Travelers were assumed to choose the routes with the best worst-case CPVs. The proposed model was formulated as a variational inequality problem and solved via a heuristic solution algorithm. A numerical example was also provided to illustrate the application of the proposed model and the efficiency of the solution algorithm.展开更多
The influence of heterogeneity on mechanical and acoustic emission characteristics of rock specimen under uniaxial compress was studied with numerical simulation methods.Weibull distribution function was adopted to de...The influence of heterogeneity on mechanical and acoustic emission characteristics of rock specimen under uniaxial compress was studied with numerical simulation methods.Weibull distribution function was adopted to describe the mesoscopic heterogeneity of rocks.The failure process of heterogeneous rock specimen under uniaxial loading was simulated using FLAC 3D software.Five schemes were adopted to investigate the influence of heterogeneity.The results demonstrate that as the homogeneity increases,the peak strength and brittleness of rocks increase,and the macro elastic modulus improves as well.Heterogeneity has great influence on macro elastic modulus and strength when the homogeneity coefficient is less than 20.0.The volume expansion is not so obvious when the homogeneity increases.As the homogeneity coefficient increases the acoustic emissions modes change from swarm shock to main shock.When the homogeneity coefficient is high,the cumulative acoustic emission events-axial strain curve is gentle before the rock failure.The numerical results agree with the previously numerical results and earlier experimental measurements.展开更多
文摘基于黄河流域101个气象站点的实测气象数据和国际耦合模式比较计划第5阶段(coupled model intercomparison project phase 5,CMIP5)3种排放情景下的6个模型1961—2099年的降水和气温数据,采用等距离累积分布函数法(equidistant cumulative distribution function matching method,EDCDFm)进行统计降尺度;通过历史阶段(1961—2005年)实测站点数据对降尺度后的降水和气温进行精度评估;在此基础上,通过标准化降水指数(standardprecipitation index,SPI)对黄河流域气象干旱进行预估。结果表明,EDCDFm的降尺度方法能够明显提高气候模式所模拟的气温和降水精度,尤其对极值的模拟精度;黄河流域气象干旱的预估显示,3种气候情景下21世纪初的干旱情况相对于基准期均变得比较严重,但是世纪末的干旱程度均明显减轻,近期黄河流域的防旱工作形势仍然严峻。
基金Project(2012CB725400)supported by the National Basic Research Program of ChinaProjects(71271023,71322102,7121001)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘The assumption widely used in the user equilibrium model for stochastic network was that the probability distributions of the travel time were known explicitly by travelers. However, this distribution may be unavailable in reality. By relaxing the restrictive assumption, a robust user equilibrium model based on cumulative prospect theory under distribution-free travel time was presented. In the absence of the cumulative distribution function of the travel time, the exact cumulative prospect value(CPV) for each route cannot be obtained. However, the upper and lower bounds on the CPV can be calculated by probability inequalities.Travelers were assumed to choose the routes with the best worst-case CPVs. The proposed model was formulated as a variational inequality problem and solved via a heuristic solution algorithm. A numerical example was also provided to illustrate the application of the proposed model and the efficiency of the solution algorithm.
基金Project(2007CB209407) supported by the National Basic Research Program of ChinaProject(50729904) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘The influence of heterogeneity on mechanical and acoustic emission characteristics of rock specimen under uniaxial compress was studied with numerical simulation methods.Weibull distribution function was adopted to describe the mesoscopic heterogeneity of rocks.The failure process of heterogeneous rock specimen under uniaxial loading was simulated using FLAC 3D software.Five schemes were adopted to investigate the influence of heterogeneity.The results demonstrate that as the homogeneity increases,the peak strength and brittleness of rocks increase,and the macro elastic modulus improves as well.Heterogeneity has great influence on macro elastic modulus and strength when the homogeneity coefficient is less than 20.0.The volume expansion is not so obvious when the homogeneity increases.As the homogeneity coefficient increases the acoustic emissions modes change from swarm shock to main shock.When the homogeneity coefficient is high,the cumulative acoustic emission events-axial strain curve is gentle before the rock failure.The numerical results agree with the previously numerical results and earlier experimental measurements.
