目的:注意缺陷多动障碍(attention deficit hyperactivity disorder,ADHD)对个人健康及社会存在显著影响。本研究旨在分析1990至2019年中国ADHD的疾病负担情况并进行预测,为国家制定相应的防控策略提供依据。方法:利用2019年全球疾病负...目的:注意缺陷多动障碍(attention deficit hyperactivity disorder,ADHD)对个人健康及社会存在显著影响。本研究旨在分析1990至2019年中国ADHD的疾病负担情况并进行预测,为国家制定相应的防控策略提供依据。方法:利用2019年全球疾病负担(the Global Burden of Diseases,GBD)数据库数据,描述1990至2019年中国ADHD的发病率、患病率、伤残调整寿命年(disability-adjusted life years,DALY)等指标的变化情况,并使用整合移动平均自回归模型(autoregressive integrated moving average model,ARIMA)预测其2020至2029年的疾病负担情况。结果:1990至2019年ADHD的发病率、患病率、DALY率均呈上升趋势,男性各标化率均远高于女性,5~9岁为发病率较高的年龄段。患病率和DALY率均在10~14岁达到高峰,之后随着年龄增加逐渐降低,成年后ADHD仍然会给患者带来一定的疾病负担。预测结果提示中国2020至2029年ADHD标化发病率呈缓慢下降趋势,标化患病率和标化DALY率在2020至2025年缓慢上升,随后有所下降,2029年可能分别达到112.28/10万、2070.03/10万、25.41/10万。结论:ADHD是一种贯穿整个生命周期的疾病,但目前对成人ADHD的认知、诊断和治疗的重视程度依然不足。建议在现有疾病监测的基础上,关注成年ADHD的早诊断和早治疗,以减轻疾病对患者及社会造成的影响。展开更多
Objective:Near vision loss(NVL)is one of the leading causes of visual impairment worldwide,exerting a profound impact on individual quality of life and socio-economic development.This study aims to analyze the burden ...Objective:Near vision loss(NVL)is one of the leading causes of visual impairment worldwide,exerting a profound impact on individual quality of life and socio-economic development.This study aims to analyze the burden of NVL in China by sex and age groups from 1990 to 2021 and to project trends over the next 15 years.Methods:Using data from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2021 database,we conducted descriptive analyses of NVL prevalence in China,calculated age-standardized prevalence rates(ASPR)and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rates(ASDR)to compare burden differences between sexes and age groups,and applied an autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model to predict NVL trends for the next 15 years.The model selection was based on best-fit criteria to ensure reliable projections.Results:From 1990 to 2021,China’s ASPR of NVL rose from 10096.24/100000 to 15624.54/100000,and ASDR increased from 101.75/100000 to 158.75/100000.In 2021,ASPR(16551.70/100000)and ASDR(167.69/100000)were higher among females than males(14686.21/100000 and 149.76/100000,respectively).China ranked highest globally in both NVL cases and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs),with female burden significantly exceeding male burden.Projections indicated this trend and sex gap will persist until 2036.Compared with 1990,the prevalence cases and DALYs increased by 239.20%and 238.82%,respectively in 2021,with the highest burden among females and the 55−59 age group.The ARIMA model predicted continued increases in prevalence and DALYs by 2036,with females maintaining a higher burden than males.Conclusion:This study reveals a marked increase in the NVL burden in China and predicts continued growth in the coming years.Public health policies should prioritize NVL prevention and control,with special attention to women and middle-aged populations to mitigate long-term societal and health impacts.展开更多
文摘目的:注意缺陷多动障碍(attention deficit hyperactivity disorder,ADHD)对个人健康及社会存在显著影响。本研究旨在分析1990至2019年中国ADHD的疾病负担情况并进行预测,为国家制定相应的防控策略提供依据。方法:利用2019年全球疾病负担(the Global Burden of Diseases,GBD)数据库数据,描述1990至2019年中国ADHD的发病率、患病率、伤残调整寿命年(disability-adjusted life years,DALY)等指标的变化情况,并使用整合移动平均自回归模型(autoregressive integrated moving average model,ARIMA)预测其2020至2029年的疾病负担情况。结果:1990至2019年ADHD的发病率、患病率、DALY率均呈上升趋势,男性各标化率均远高于女性,5~9岁为发病率较高的年龄段。患病率和DALY率均在10~14岁达到高峰,之后随着年龄增加逐渐降低,成年后ADHD仍然会给患者带来一定的疾病负担。预测结果提示中国2020至2029年ADHD标化发病率呈缓慢下降趋势,标化患病率和标化DALY率在2020至2025年缓慢上升,随后有所下降,2029年可能分别达到112.28/10万、2070.03/10万、25.41/10万。结论:ADHD是一种贯穿整个生命周期的疾病,但目前对成人ADHD的认知、诊断和治疗的重视程度依然不足。建议在现有疾病监测的基础上,关注成年ADHD的早诊断和早治疗,以减轻疾病对患者及社会造成的影响。
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province(2023JJ30817)Hunan Provincial Natural Science Foundation-Hengyang City Joint Fund Project(2025JJ70129)+1 种基金Changsha Natural Science Foundation(kq2403057)China。
文摘Objective:Near vision loss(NVL)is one of the leading causes of visual impairment worldwide,exerting a profound impact on individual quality of life and socio-economic development.This study aims to analyze the burden of NVL in China by sex and age groups from 1990 to 2021 and to project trends over the next 15 years.Methods:Using data from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2021 database,we conducted descriptive analyses of NVL prevalence in China,calculated age-standardized prevalence rates(ASPR)and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rates(ASDR)to compare burden differences between sexes and age groups,and applied an autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model to predict NVL trends for the next 15 years.The model selection was based on best-fit criteria to ensure reliable projections.Results:From 1990 to 2021,China’s ASPR of NVL rose from 10096.24/100000 to 15624.54/100000,and ASDR increased from 101.75/100000 to 158.75/100000.In 2021,ASPR(16551.70/100000)and ASDR(167.69/100000)were higher among females than males(14686.21/100000 and 149.76/100000,respectively).China ranked highest globally in both NVL cases and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs),with female burden significantly exceeding male burden.Projections indicated this trend and sex gap will persist until 2036.Compared with 1990,the prevalence cases and DALYs increased by 239.20%and 238.82%,respectively in 2021,with the highest burden among females and the 55−59 age group.The ARIMA model predicted continued increases in prevalence and DALYs by 2036,with females maintaining a higher burden than males.Conclusion:This study reveals a marked increase in the NVL burden in China and predicts continued growth in the coming years.Public health policies should prioritize NVL prevention and control,with special attention to women and middle-aged populations to mitigate long-term societal and health impacts.
