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用于短时交通流预测的多项式分布滞后模型 被引量:16
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作者 谢军 吴伟 杨晓光 《同济大学学报(自然科学版)》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2011年第9期1297-1302,共6页
提出了用于短时交通流预测的多项式分布滞后模型.其建模思想是交通状态时间序列同时受自身滞后项之外的多个因素影响,并且影响分布到了多个时段.通过与ARIMA模型(自回归整数移动平均模型)的预测精度对比分析,表明PDL(多项式分布滞后)模... 提出了用于短时交通流预测的多项式分布滞后模型.其建模思想是交通状态时间序列同时受自身滞后项之外的多个因素影响,并且影响分布到了多个时段.通过与ARIMA模型(自回归整数移动平均模型)的预测精度对比分析,表明PDL(多项式分布滞后)模型具有与ARIMA相同的预测精度,而在模型可移植性、算法复杂性和实现方面更具优势.研究结果为短时交通流预测理论提供一种新的研究思路. 展开更多
关键词 短时交通流预测 PDL模型 ARIMA模型 先进的出行信息系统
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A mixed stochastic user equilibrium model considering influence of advanced traveller information systems in degradable transport network 被引量:4
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作者 程琳 楼小明 +1 位作者 周静 马捷 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2018年第5期1182-1194,共13页
Advanced traveler information systems (ATIS) can not only improve drivers' accessibility to the more accurate route travel time information, but also can improve drivers' adaptability to the stochastic network cap... Advanced traveler information systems (ATIS) can not only improve drivers' accessibility to the more accurate route travel time information, but also can improve drivers' adaptability to the stochastic network capacity degradations. In this paper, a mixed stochastic user equilibrium model was proposed to describe the interactive route choice behaviors between ATIS equipped and unequipped drivers on a degradable transport network. In the proposed model the information accessibility of equipped drivers was reflected by lower degree of uncertainty in their stochastic equilibrium flow distributions, and their behavioral adaptability was captured by multiple equilibrium behaviors over the stochastic network state set. The mixed equilibrium model was formulated as a fixed point problem defined in the mixed route flows, and its solution was achieved by executing an iterative algorithm. Numerical experiments were provided to verify the properties of the mixed network equilibrium model and the efficiency of the iterative algorithm. 展开更多
关键词 mixed stochastic user equilibrium model degradable transport network advanced traveler information systems (ATIS) drivers' behavioral adaptability multiple equilibrium behaviors fixed point problem
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Day-to-day traffic user equilibrium model considering influence of intelligent highways and advanced traveler information systems 被引量:1
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作者 SUN Chao CHU Zhao-ming +1 位作者 ZHANG Peng CHANG Yu-lin 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2022年第4期1376-1388,共13页
To explore the influence of intelligent highways and advanced traveler information systems(ATIS)on path choice behavior,a day-to-day(DTD)traffic flow evolution model with information from intelligent highways and ATIS... To explore the influence of intelligent highways and advanced traveler information systems(ATIS)on path choice behavior,a day-to-day(DTD)traffic flow evolution model with information from intelligent highways and ATIS is proposed,whereby the network reliability and experiential learning theory are introduced into the decision process for the travelers’route choice.The intelligent highway serves all the travelers who drive on it,whereas ATIS serves vehicles equipped with information systems.Travelers who drive on intelligent highways or vehicles equipped with ATIS determine their trip routes based on real-time traffic information,whereas other travelers use both the road network conditions from the previous day and historical travel experience to choose a route.Both roadway capacity degradation and travel demand fluctuations are considered to demonstrate the uncertainties in the network.The theory of traffic network flow is developed to build a DTD model considering information from intelligent highway and ATIS.The fixed point theorem is adopted to investigate the equivalence,existence and stability of the proposed DTD model.Numerical examples illustrate that using a high confidence level and weight parameter for the traffic flow reduces the stability of the proposed model.The traffic flow reaches a steady state as travelers’routes shift with repetitive learning of road conditions.The proposed model can be used to formulate scientific traffic organization and diversion schemes during road expansion or reconstruction. 展开更多
关键词 day-to-day model intelligent highway advanced traveler information systems UNCERTAINTY
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