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中国债券市场债券风险溢酬的宏观因素影响分析 被引量:38
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作者 范龙振 张处 《管理科学学报》 CSSCI 北大核心 2009年第6期116-124,149,共10页
研究了从1997年8月至2005年12月,中国债券市场利率和债券的超额回报率与货币政策变量、宏观经济变量的关系.发现市场利率综合反映了官方利率、货币供应量的增长率、通货膨胀率和实际消费的增长率.根据金融理论,它们的不确定性变化可能... 研究了从1997年8月至2005年12月,中国债券市场利率和债券的超额回报率与货币政策变量、宏观经济变量的关系.发现市场利率综合反映了官方利率、货币供应量的增长率、通货膨胀率和实际消费的增长率.根据金融理论,它们的不确定性变化可能影响到债券的预期超额回报率.实证分析发现它们可以显著解释债券的超额回报率.市场短期利率或官方利率越大,债券的超额回报率越大;通货膨胀率越高,债券的超额回报率也越大;实际消费增长率越大,债券的超额回报率越小;货币供给量增加越快,债券的超额回报率越小.由于各个债券超额回报率的样本区间不同,还基于MCMC方法提出一种合适的参数估计方法. 展开更多
关键词 官方利率 债券回报率 价格指数 货币供应量 实际消费 久期
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积极债券投资策略实证研究 被引量:4
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作者 朱世武 陈健恒 《统计研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2006年第3期56-60,共5页
Investing in bonds is always a very important part of securities investment.In the foreign advanced financial markets,excellent bond investment strategies bring high returns to different kinds of bond investment funds... Investing in bonds is always a very important part of securities investment.In the foreign advanced financial markets,excellent bond investment strategies bring high returns to different kinds of bond investment funds.As China’s bond market is developing very fast,the type of bonds increased gradually and various bond investors are growing up day by day.Under this background,how to apply foreign mature bond investment strategies to China’s bond market has been a very hot topic discussed by different kinds of investment institutions.From the government’s aspect,utilizing the mature bond investment strategies will also help to normalize the bond investment behaviors and enhance the connection between domestic and overseas bond markets.This paper focuses on the active bond investment strategies based on interest rate term structure analysis.These active bond investment strategies include riding the yield curve and forecasting the bond excess returns.Using trading data of treasury bills and treasury bonds traded in Exchange,this paper validates all of these investment strategies and proves that they can be successfully applied to China’s bond market and make obvious profits.Different bond investors can use these investment strategies mentioned above according to their investment targets and restrictions. 展开更多
关键词 骑乘收益率曲线 利率期限结构 债券超额回报率
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