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不确定性理论集对分析在预报模型建立中的应用研究 被引量:10
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作者 薛根元 王国强 《气象学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2003年第5期592-599,共8页
文中应用集对分析原理 ,在模型每次作出预报结论之前先对各预报因子的预报能力进行分析和判断 ,对一些预报能力不强 ,甚至可能干扰预报模型作出正确预报结论的所谓弱势因子 ,进行抑制、甚至消除其影响 ,而让其他预报能力较强的因子来决... 文中应用集对分析原理 ,在模型每次作出预报结论之前先对各预报因子的预报能力进行分析和判断 ,对一些预报能力不强 ,甚至可能干扰预报模型作出正确预报结论的所谓弱势因子 ,进行抑制、甚至消除其影响 ,而让其他预报能力较强的因子来决定预报结论。在每次预报中 ,模型中哪个因子为弱势是不固定的 ,而是随着预报环境的变化而变化 ,也就是说 ,随着环境的变化 ,会有不同因子的作用被抑制或取消 ,从而实现预报模型的因子结构动态优化 ,增强了模型预报机制的合理性 ,提高了模型的预报能力。大量的试验、多年的业务试用以及在数值预报产品释用中的应用例子表明 ,这一方法具有较好的效果。 展开更多
关键词 不确定性理论 对分析 因子势态 数值预报产品 模型
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阶梯式碳交易下考虑源荷不确定性的储能优化配置 被引量:32
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作者 郝婷 樊小朝 +4 位作者 王维庆 史瑞静 李笑竹 何山 常喜强 《电力系统保护与控制》 EI CSCD 北大核心 2023年第1期101-112,共12页
双碳愿景下,维持高比例新能源电力系统的稳定性和灵活性,配置储能是关键。建立了考虑阶梯式碳交易和分时电价的储能鲁棒模型。在模型中考虑了源荷双侧的不确定性影响,利用时间平滑约束和空间集群约束来缩小源荷不确定性集边界,降低模型... 双碳愿景下,维持高比例新能源电力系统的稳定性和灵活性,配置储能是关键。建立了考虑阶梯式碳交易和分时电价的储能鲁棒模型。在模型中考虑了源荷双侧的不确定性影响,利用时间平滑约束和空间集群约束来缩小源荷不确定性集边界,降低模型的保守性。通过拉格朗日推理把不确定性约束转换为确定性约束,并用改进的麻雀算法对模型进行求解。算例表明,时空耦合效应下系统经济性将得到显著提升,决策者可通过选择不确定性的置信概率来平衡系统经济性与鲁棒性。针对不同灵活性改造阶段提出了不同的储能规划方案,指出区域内火电存量低于43%时,系统开始具有碳收益。 展开更多
关键词 储能规划 鲁棒模型 不确定性集 阶梯式碳交易 灵活性改造
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基于σ-预算的主动配电网两阶段区间状态估计方法
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作者 陈中 倪纯奕 +3 位作者 蔡榕 潘俊迪 赵奇 罗玉春 《电力自动化设备》 北大核心 2025年第1期9-15,50,共8页
针对新型电力系统背景下主动配电网存在的实时量测数据少、量测不确定性强等问题,提出一种基于σ-预算的主动配电网两阶段区间状态估计方法。在第一阶段,构建混合整数线性规划模型,采用伪量测数据替代辨识出的量测不良数据,提高区间状... 针对新型电力系统背景下主动配电网存在的实时量测数据少、量测不确定性强等问题,提出一种基于σ-预算的主动配电网两阶段区间状态估计方法。在第一阶段,构建混合整数线性规划模型,采用伪量测数据替代辨识出的量测不良数据,提高区间状态估计算法的鲁棒性;在第二阶段,基于广义方和根误差合成理论建立基于σ-预算的量测不确定性集,作为区间状态估计模型的输入可行域,以克服区间估计算法高保守性的问题;结合稀疏矩阵构建区间状态估计线性优化迭代模型,从而更加高效地求解状态变量的区间上下界。通过修改的IEEE 33节点系统、IEEE 118节点系统和江苏某市26节点配电网仿真验证了所提方法的有效性。 展开更多
关键词 主动配电网 区间状态估计 不良数据辨识 不确定性集 σ-预算 误差合成
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考虑极端事件下的高比例可再生能源电力系统韧性增强策略 被引量:12
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作者 杜敏 刘绚 周元刚 《电力系统自动化》 EI CSCD 北大核心 2023年第12期19-27,共9页
近年来,极端事件与风电出力的不确定性给电力系统的安全运行带来了严峻挑战。文中提出一种考虑极端事件并以风电不确定性为导向的自适应鲁棒优化模型以增强电力系统的韧性能力。首先,考虑风电出力不确定性以构建自适应鲁棒多面体不确定... 近年来,极端事件与风电出力的不确定性给电力系统的安全运行带来了严峻挑战。文中提出一种考虑极端事件并以风电不确定性为导向的自适应鲁棒优化模型以增强电力系统的韧性能力。首先,考虑风电出力不确定性以构建自适应鲁棒多面体不确定性集合。其次,考虑极端事件对电力系统的威胁,提出了防御-攻击-防御框架下风电出力不确定性的电力系统韧性增强模型。最后,该模型在IEEE RTS-79和IEEE RTS-96测试系统上进行仿真验证,并采用列与约束生成算法进行求解,仿真结果验证了所提模型及求解方法的有效性。 展开更多
关键词 韧性 可再生能源 电力系统 极端事件 不确定性集 列与约束生成算法
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Improved direct power injection model of 16-bit microcontroller for electromagnetic immunity prediction 被引量:3
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作者 高雪莲 田聪颖 +2 位作者 落丽媛 陈银红 陈彦宇 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2011年第6期2031-2035,共5页
To promote the modeling standardization process of the integrated circuits, an improved electrical simulation model for a direct power injection (DPI) setup which was used to measure the conducted immunity of a 16-b... To promote the modeling standardization process of the integrated circuits, an improved electrical simulation model for a direct power injection (DPI) setup which was used to measure the conducted immunity of a 16-bit microcontroller to radio frequency aggression was investigated. Based on the existing model of the same microcontroller, the PDN module was modified by adding the core, PLL and MD network models, which could reflect the actual electric distribution situation within the microcontroller more accurately. By comparing the simulation results with the measurement results, the effectiveness of the modified model can be improved to 500 MHz, and its uncertainty is within +1.8 dB (+2 dB is acceptable). Then, to improve the simulation accuracy of the complete model in the high frequency range, the I/O model which contained the dynamic and nonlinear characteristics reflecting the variation of the internal impedance of the microcontroller with increasing the frequency of the external noise was introduced. By comparing the simulation results with the measurement results, the effectiveness of the second modified model can be improved up to 1.4 GHz with the uncertainty of ~1.8 dB. Thus, a conclusion can be reached that the proposed model can be applied to a much wider frequency range with a smaller uncertainty than the latest model of the similar type. Furthermore, associated with the electromagnetic emission testing platform model, the PDN module can also be used to predict the electromagnetic conducted and radiated emission characteristics. This modeling method can also be applied to other integrated circuits, which is very helpful to the standardization of the IC electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) modeling process. 展开更多
关键词 electromagnetic immunity MICROCONTROLLER direct power injection passive distribution network
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Passive target tracking with intermittent measurement based on random finite set 被引量:4
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作者 罗小波 范红旗 +1 位作者 宋志勇 付强 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2014年第6期2282-2291,共10页
In the tracking problem for the maritime radiation source by a passive sensor,there are three main difficulties,i.e.,the poor observability of the radiation source,the detection uncertainty(false and missed detections... In the tracking problem for the maritime radiation source by a passive sensor,there are three main difficulties,i.e.,the poor observability of the radiation source,the detection uncertainty(false and missed detections)and the uncertainty of the target appearing/disappearing in the field of view.These difficulties can make the establishment or maintenance of the radiation source target track invalid.By incorporating the elevation information of the passive sensor into the automatic bearings-only tracking(BOT)and consolidating these uncertainties under the framework of random finite set(RFS),a novel approach for tracking maritime radiation source target with intermittent measurement was proposed.Under the RFS framework,the target state was represented as a set that can take on either an empty set or a singleton; meanwhile,the measurement uncertainty was modeled as a Bernoulli random finite set.Moreover,the elevation information of the sensor platform was introduced to ensure observability of passive measurements and obtain the unique target localization.Simulation experiments verify the validity of the proposed approach for tracking maritime radiation source and demonstrate the superiority of the proposed approach in comparison with the traditional integrated probabilistic data association(IPDA)method.The tracking performance under different conditions,particularly involving different existence probabilities and different appearance durations of the target,indicates that the method to solve our problem is robust and effective. 展开更多
关键词 passive target tracking maritime target joint detection and tracking intermittent measurement random finite set poor observability
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Similarity measure design on overlapped and non-overlapped data
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作者 LEE Sang-hyuk SHIN Seung-soo 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2013年第9期2440-2446,共7页
Similarity measure design on non-overlapped data was carried out and compared with the case of overlapped data.Unconsistant feature of similarity on overlapped data to non-overlapped data was provided by example.By th... Similarity measure design on non-overlapped data was carried out and compared with the case of overlapped data.Unconsistant feature of similarity on overlapped data to non-overlapped data was provided by example.By the artificial data illustration,it was proved that the conventional similarity measure was not proper to calculate the similarity measure of the non-overlapped case.To overcome the unbalance problem,similarity measure on non-overlapped data was obtained by considering neighbor information.Hence,different approaches to design similarity measure were proposed and proved by consideration of neighbor information.With the example of artificial data,similarity measure calculation was carried out.Similarity measure extension to intuitionistic fuzzy sets(IFSs)containing uncertainty named hesitance was also followed. 展开更多
关键词 similarity measure overlapped data non-overlapped data intuitionistic data
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