Monte Carlo simulation has become an important tool for estimating the reliability andavailability of dynamic system, since conventional numerical methods are no longer efficient whenthe size of the system to solve is...Monte Carlo simulation has become an important tool for estimating the reliability andavailability of dynamic system, since conventional numerical methods are no longer efficient whenthe size of the system to solve is large. However, evaluating by a simulation the probability of oc-currence of very rare events means playing a very large number of histories of the system, whichleads to unacceptable computing time. Highly efficient Monte Carlo should be worked out. In thispaper, based on the integral equation describing state transitions of Markov dynamic system, a u-niform Monte Carlo for estimating unavailability is presented. Using free-flight estimator, directstatistical estimation Monte Carlo is achieved. Using both free-flight estimator and biased proba-bility space of sampling, weighted statistical estimation Monte Carlo is also achieved. Five MonteCarlo schemes, including crude simulation, analog simulation, statistical estimation based oncrude and analog simulation, and weighted statistical estimation, are used for calculating the un-availability of a repairable Con/3/30 : F system. Their efficiencies are compared with each other.The results show the weighted statistical estimation Monte Carlo has the smallest variance and thehighest efficiency in very rare events simulation.展开更多
To improve the energy utilization efficiency of internal combustion （IC） engine, exergy analysis was conducted on a passenger car gasoline engine. According to the thermodynamic theory of IC engine, in-cylinder exer...To improve the energy utilization efficiency of internal combustion （IC） engine, exergy analysis was conducted on a passenger car gasoline engine. According to the thermodynamic theory of IC engine, in-cylinder exergy balance model was built. The working processes of gasoline engine were simulated by using the GT-power. In this way, the required parameters were calculated and then gasoline engine exergy balance was obtained by programming on computer. On this basis, the influences of various parameters on exergy balance were analyzed. Results show that, the proportions of various forms of exergy in gasoline engine from high to low are irreversible loss, effective work, exhaust gas exergy and heat transfer exergy. Effective exergy proportion fluctuates with cylinder volumetric efficiency at full load, while it always increases with break mean effective pressure （BMEP） at part load. Exhaust gas exergy proportion is more sensitive to speed, and it increases with speed increasing except at the highest speed. The lower proportion of heat transfer exergy appears at high speed and high load. Irreversible loss is mainly influenced by load. At part load, higher BMEP results in lower proportion of irreversible loss; at full load, the proportion of irreversible loss changes little except at the highest speed.展开更多
文摘Monte Carlo simulation has become an important tool for estimating the reliability andavailability of dynamic system, since conventional numerical methods are no longer efficient whenthe size of the system to solve is large. However, evaluating by a simulation the probability of oc-currence of very rare events means playing a very large number of histories of the system, whichleads to unacceptable computing time. Highly efficient Monte Carlo should be worked out. In thispaper, based on the integral equation describing state transitions of Markov dynamic system, a u-niform Monte Carlo for estimating unavailability is presented. Using free-flight estimator, directstatistical estimation Monte Carlo is achieved. Using both free-flight estimator and biased proba-bility space of sampling, weighted statistical estimation Monte Carlo is also achieved. Five MonteCarlo schemes, including crude simulation, analog simulation, statistical estimation based oncrude and analog simulation, and weighted statistical estimation, are used for calculating the un-availability of a repairable Con/3/30 : F system. Their efficiencies are compared with each other.The results show the weighted statistical estimation Monte Carlo has the smallest variance and thehighest efficiency in very rare events simulation.
基金Foundation item： Project（2011CB707201） supported by the National Basic Research Program of China Project（10JJ5058） supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province, China
文摘To improve the energy utilization efficiency of internal combustion （IC） engine, exergy analysis was conducted on a passenger car gasoline engine. According to the thermodynamic theory of IC engine, in-cylinder exergy balance model was built. The working processes of gasoline engine were simulated by using the GT-power. In this way, the required parameters were calculated and then gasoline engine exergy balance was obtained by programming on computer. On this basis, the influences of various parameters on exergy balance were analyzed. Results show that, the proportions of various forms of exergy in gasoline engine from high to low are irreversible loss, effective work, exhaust gas exergy and heat transfer exergy. Effective exergy proportion fluctuates with cylinder volumetric efficiency at full load, while it always increases with break mean effective pressure （BMEP） at part load. Exhaust gas exergy proportion is more sensitive to speed, and it increases with speed increasing except at the highest speed. The lower proportion of heat transfer exergy appears at high speed and high load. Irreversible loss is mainly influenced by load. At part load, higher BMEP results in lower proportion of irreversible loss; at full load, the proportion of irreversible loss changes little except at the highest speed.
