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“不确定性原理”何以被误导?——对经济学“只谈概率,不谈因果”的溯源批判 被引量:5
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作者 赵晓磊 赵磊 《四川师范大学学报(社会科学版)》 CSSCI 北大核心 2020年第5期74-82,共9页
晚近以来,以“不确定性原理”否定认识对象的客观性,进而否定真理的客观性,已然成为流行的学术思潮。在此背景下,热衷于“只谈概率统计,不谈因果关系”的问题导向,竟然成了经济学衡量科学含金量的定性标准。造成这种状况的理论源头之一... 晚近以来,以“不确定性原理”否定认识对象的客观性,进而否定真理的客观性,已然成为流行的学术思潮。在此背景下,热衷于“只谈概率统计,不谈因果关系”的问题导向,竟然成了经济学衡量科学含金量的定性标准。造成这种状况的理论源头之一,就在于对“不确定性原理”的误读和误导。(1)爱因斯坦等人指出的“EPR佯谬”表明,“不确定性原理”仍有待进一步完善。新近的实验结果验证了新形式的海森堡不确定原理,从而对经典的“不确定性原理”提出了挑战。(2)量子世界的“不确定性”到底是“观测结果”的不确定,还是量子世界“自身性质”的不确定,这仍是一个有待探究的问题。(3)在辩证逻辑看来,所谓“不确定性”不过是事物存在的正常状态;然而在形式逻辑看来,“不确定性”却是事物存在的悖谬。(4)只有在辩证法的视域中,量子世界才能得到“确定的”认识;只有辩证逻辑“对立统一”的思维方式,才能全面准确地把握四维时空中的人类社会。(5)把“不确定性原理”解读成微观世界甚至宏观世界在本质上是“不可知”的,是一种“过度自信”的表现。 展开更多
关键词 “不确定性原理” 经济学范式 微观世界 不可知论 辩证逻辑 量子信息
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当前世界的重大不确定性
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作者 <学术前沿>编者 《学术前沿》 CSSCI 2017年第7期4-5,共2页
一切都是不确定的,这是唯一能够确定的事。当前,在各地报刊媒体的报告中、在各国政要精英的言辞里、在商界领袖的文件内,“不确定性”已成为出现频率最高的关键词之一,也成为观察国际政治经济事件和现象的常用语。
关键词 “不确定性” 世界 报刊媒体 商界领袖 出现频率 经济事件 国际政治 关键词
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Semi-analytical solution for mechanical analysis of tunnels crossing strike-slip fault zone considering nonuniform fault displacement and uncertain fault plane position
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作者 YANG Heng-hong WANG Ming-nian +1 位作者 YU Li ZHANG Xiao 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2024年第6期2116-2136,共21页
The tunnel subjected to strike-slip fault dislocation exhibits severe and catastrophic damage.The existing analysis models frequently assume uniform fault displacement and fixed fault plane position.In contrast,post-e... The tunnel subjected to strike-slip fault dislocation exhibits severe and catastrophic damage.The existing analysis models frequently assume uniform fault displacement and fixed fault plane position.In contrast,post-earthquake observations indicate that the displacement near the fault zone is typically nonuniform,and the fault plane position is uncertain.In this study,we first established a series of improved governing equations to analyze the mechanical response of tunnels under strike-slip fault dislocation.The proposed methodology incorporated key factors such as nonuniform fault displacement and uncertain fault plane position into the governing equations,thereby significantly enhancing the applicability range and accuracy of the model.In contrast to previous analytical models,the maximum computational error has decreased from 57.1%to 1.1%.Subsequently,we conducted a rigorous validation of the proposed methodology by undertaking a comparative analysis with a 3D finite element numerical model,and the results from both approaches exhibited a high degree of qualitative and quantitative agreement with a maximum error of 9.9%.Finally,the proposed methodology was utilized to perform a parametric analysis to explore the effects of various parameters,such as fault displacement,fault zone width,fault zone strength,the ratio of maximum fault displacement of the hanging wall to the footwall,and fault plane position,on the response of tunnels subjected to strike-slip fault dislocation.The findings indicate a progressive increase in the peak internal forces of the tunnel with the rise in fault displacement and fault zone strength.Conversely,an augmentation in fault zone width is found to contribute to a decrease in the peak internal forces.For example,for a fault zone width of 10 m,the peak values of bending moment,shear force,and axial force are approximately 46.9%,102.4%,and 28.7% higher,respectively,compared to those observed for a fault zone width of 50 m.Furthermore,the position of the peak internal forces is influenced by variations in the ratio of maximum fault displacement of the hanging wall to footwall and the fault plane location,while the peak values of shear force and axial force always align with the fault plane.The maximum peak internal forces are observed when the footwall exclusively bears the entirety of the fault displacement,corresponding to a ratio of 0:1.The peak values of bending moment,shear force,and axial force for the ratio of 0:1 amount to approximately 123.8%,148.6%,and 111.1% of those for the ratio of 0.5:0.5,respectively. 展开更多
关键词 strike-slip fault tunnel engineering semi-analytical solution fault zone width nonuniform fault displacement uncertain fault plane position
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伊东丰雄的建筑思想研究 被引量:19
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作者 王发堂 徐宇甦 《东南大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》 CSSCI 北大核心 2009年第3期83-89,共7页
伊东丰雄的建筑思想自成体系。要研究其思想,首先要考察其产生的时代背景;其次,要反思建筑界在过去的几十年来,对时代精神"不确定性"的探讨历程;最后了解其建筑思想轮廓、建筑思想发展历程和建筑设计方法。研究其思想,可为人... 伊东丰雄的建筑思想自成体系。要研究其思想,首先要考察其产生的时代背景;其次,要反思建筑界在过去的几十年来,对时代精神"不确定性"的探讨历程;最后了解其建筑思想轮廓、建筑思想发展历程和建筑设计方法。研究其思想,可为人们把握新时代建筑发展趋势提供一个粗略的轮廓。 展开更多
关键词 伊东丰雄 “不确定性” 建筑思想 建筑设计方法
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权威、建构、平衡--论传统媒体如何应对微博传播风险 被引量:3
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作者 张燕 王丽婷 《现代传播(中国传媒大学学报)》 CSSCI 北大核心 2014年第1期155-156,共2页
现代社会风险有一个重要的特征,就是它与“媒介化社会”的互相叠加。风险的“不确定性”加剧了人们对媒介信息的渴望与依赖。传媒作为一种天然的信息采集与传播工具,在监测、预报和应对风险方面具有独一无二的优势。但是,媒介在促进... 现代社会风险有一个重要的特征,就是它与“媒介化社会”的互相叠加。风险的“不确定性”加剧了人们对媒介信息的渴望与依赖。传媒作为一种天然的信息采集与传播工具,在监测、预报和应对风险方面具有独一无二的优势。但是,媒介在促进公众对风险的认识以外,也参与了现代风险的构建与传播。 展开更多
关键词 社会风险 传播工具 传统媒体 权威 平衡 “不确定性” 媒介信息 信息采集
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读几位当代诗人 被引量:2
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作者 王家新 《当代作家评论》 CSSCI 北大核心 2007年第6期93-101,共9页
关键词 诗人 “不确定性” 麦城 诗歌 诗集
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角色距离:中小学教师角色转换之困 被引量:2
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作者 靖东阁 《教学与管理(中学版)》 北大核心 2011年第12期19-21,共3页
随着新课改的实施以及教师专业发展的进行,传统的教师角色受到挑战,这就需要教师不断适应甚至推进教师职业角色的转换与提升。“教师的角色转换问题是整个当代教育改革的核心问题,它既是教育教学改革的重要内容,又是教育教学改革的... 随着新课改的实施以及教师专业发展的进行,传统的教师角色受到挑战,这就需要教师不断适应甚至推进教师职业角色的转换与提升。“教师的角色转换问题是整个当代教育改革的核心问题,它既是教育教学改革的重要内容,又是教育教学改革的必要条件”。然而教师职业的“回归性”、“不确定性”和“无边界性”的特征制约着教师角色转换和专业成长。戈夫曼的角色距离理论为我们分析教师角色距离、缩短角色距离以促进教师成功扮演现代教师角色提供了依据。 展开更多
关键词 教师角色转换 角色距离 中小学 教师职业角色 教育教学改革 教师专业发展 “不确定性” 教师的角色
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Characterization of a Powertrain Test Bed in the Context of Virtual Validation of Drivability
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作者 Schmidt HENRIK Prokop GÜNTHER 《同济大学学报(自然科学版)》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2024年第S01期9-19,共11页
Technological trends in the automotive industry toward a software-defined and autonomous vehicle require a reassessment of today’s vehicle development process.The validation process soaringly shapes after starting wi... Technological trends in the automotive industry toward a software-defined and autonomous vehicle require a reassessment of today’s vehicle development process.The validation process soaringly shapes after starting with hardware-in-the-loop testing of control units and reproducing real-world maneuvers and physical interaction chains.Here,the road-to-rig approach offers a vast potential to reduce validation time and costs significantly.The present research study investigates the maneuver reproduction of drivability phenomena at a powertrain test bed.Although drivability phenomena occur in the frequency range of most up to 30∙Hz,the design and characteristics substantially impact the test setup’s validity.By utilization of modal analysis,the influence of the test bed on the mechanical characteristic is shown.Furthermore,the sensitivity of the natural modes of each component,from either specimen or test bed site,is determined.In contrast,the uncertainty of the deployed measurement equipment also affects the validity.Instead of an accuracy class indication,we apply the ISO/IEC Guide 98 to the measurement equipment and the test bed setup to increase the fidelity of the validation task.In conclusion,the present paper contributes to a traceable validity determination of the road-to-rig approach by providing objective metrics and methods. 展开更多
关键词 powertrain test bed virtual validation modal analysis powertrain-hardware-in-the-loop DRIVABILITY measurement uncertainty
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吕耀东:对华“两面下注”体现日本矛盾心态
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作者 吕耀东 《人民论坛》 北大核心 2012年第19期23-23,共1页
一直以来,日本对华战略就表现为,借重同盟国美国的力量增强与中国讨价还价的能力,谋求通过发展与中国周边国家的关系来抵消中国的国际影响力。进入21世纪以来,日本既期望从中国经济的快速增长中受益,又担心中国与其争夺地区主导权... 一直以来,日本对华战略就表现为,借重同盟国美国的力量增强与中国讨价还价的能力,谋求通过发展与中国周边国家的关系来抵消中国的国际影响力。进入21世纪以来,日本既期望从中国经济的快速增长中受益,又担心中国与其争夺地区主导权,认为中国未来有可能在军事上对其构成威胁。因而日本对华战略常常表现出“不确定性”特点。日本这样的对华矛盾心态,导致日本对华政策始终保持两手准备。 展开更多
关键词 日本对华政策 矛盾心态 中国周边国家 “不确定性” 对华战略 国际影响力 讨价还价 21世纪
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论九十年代以来大陆青春题材影片的意义建构
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作者 张军 《电影评介》 2012年第2期14-16,共3页
二十世纪九十年代以来出现了一批以青年人的成长或者对时代的怀旧为主要题材的影片,该类青春题材电影具有多重的意义建构,成长和身份问题是青年群体无法回避的现实因素,在该类题材影片中有一定程度的表现。
关键词 青春电影 建构“不确定性” 身份
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中国作家如何向内心走——《康家村纪事》带来的启示
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作者 王研 《当代作家评论》 CSSCI 北大核心 2011年第1期49-52,共4页
《康家村纪事》,是一部在文体认定上没有取得共识的作品,作者高晖称它为“关于一个村庄的非结构主义文本”。不少阅读过这本书的批评家、作家,更愿意用“作品”、“文本”来称呼它,而不是使用“小说”、“散文”等确定性的称谓。也... 《康家村纪事》,是一部在文体认定上没有取得共识的作品,作者高晖称它为“关于一个村庄的非结构主义文本”。不少阅读过这本书的批评家、作家,更愿意用“作品”、“文本”来称呼它,而不是使用“小说”、“散文”等确定性的称谓。也许高晖本人并未料到《康家村纪事》出版后,会成为一部“让人无法定义”的作品,但,恰恰因为它的“不确定性”使它具有了某种范本式的意义。 展开更多
关键词 中国作家 纪事 “不确定性” 内心 “文本” 结构主义 作品 批评家
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Compensation for secondary uncertainty in electro-hydraulic servo system by gain adaptive sliding mode variable structure control 被引量:11
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作者 张友旺 桂卫华 《Journal of Central South University of Technology》 EI 2008年第2期256-263,共8页
Based on consideration of the differential relations between the immeasurable variables and measurable variables in electro-hydraulic servo system,adaptive dynamic recurrent fuzzy neural networks(ADRFNNs) were employe... Based on consideration of the differential relations between the immeasurable variables and measurable variables in electro-hydraulic servo system,adaptive dynamic recurrent fuzzy neural networks(ADRFNNs) were employed to identify the primary uncertainty and the mathematic model of the system was turned into an equivalent linear model with terms of secondary uncertainty.At the same time,gain adaptive sliding mode variable structure control(GASMVSC) was employed to synthesize the control effort.The results show that the unrealization problem caused by some system's immeasurable state variables in traditional fuzzy neural networks(TFNN) taking all state variables as its inputs is overcome.On the other hand,the identification by the ADRFNNs online with high accuracy and the adaptive function of the correction term's gain in the GASMVSC make the system possess strong robustness and improved steady accuracy,and the chattering phenomenon of the control effort is also suppressed effectively. 展开更多
关键词 electro-hydraulic servo system adaptive dynamic recurrent fuzzy neural network(ADRFNN) gain adaptive slidingmode variable structure control(GASMVSC) secondary uncertainty
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Application of reliability-centered maintenance for productivity improvement of open pit mining equipment:Case study of Sungun Copper Mine 被引量:5
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作者 Amin Moniri Morad Mohammad Pourgol-Mohammad Javad Sattarvand 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2014年第6期2372-2382,共11页
Equipment plays an important role in open pit mining industry and its cost competence at efficient operation and maintenance techniques centered on reliability can lead to significant cost reduction.The application of... Equipment plays an important role in open pit mining industry and its cost competence at efficient operation and maintenance techniques centered on reliability can lead to significant cost reduction.The application of optimal maintenance process was investigated for minimizing the equipment breakdowns and downtimes in Sungun Copper Mine.It results in the improved efficiency and productivity of the equipment and lowered expenses as well as the increased profit margin.The field operating data of 10 trucks are used to estimate the failure and maintenance profile for each component,and modeling and simulation are accomplished by using reliability block diagram method.Trend analysis was then conducted to select proper probabilistic model for maintenance profile.Then reliability of the system was evaluated and importance of each component was computed by weighted importance measure method.This analysis led to identify the items with critical impact on availability of overall equipment in order to prioritize improvement decisions.Later,the availability of trucks was evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation and it is revealed that the uptime of the trucks is around 11000 h at 12000 operation hours.Finally,uncertainty analysis was performed to account for the uncertainty sources in data and models. 展开更多
关键词 operating costs maintenance mining dump truck RELIABILITY AVAILABILITY UNCERTAINTY
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Integrating unascertained measurement and information entropy theory to assess blastability of rock mass 被引量:15
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作者 周健 李夕兵 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2012年第7期1953-1960,共8页
Due to the complex features of rock mass blastability assessment systems, an evaluation model of rock mass blastability was established on the basis of the unascertained measurement (UM) theory and the actual charac... Due to the complex features of rock mass blastability assessment systems, an evaluation model of rock mass blastability was established on the basis of the unascertained measurement (UM) theory and the actual characteristics of the project. Considering a comprehensive range of intact rock properties and discontinuous structures of rock mass, twelve main factors influencing the evaluation blastability of rock mass were taken into account in the UM model, and the blastability evaluation index system of rock mass was constructed. The unascertained evaluation indices corresponding to the selected factors for the actual situation were solved both qualitatively and quantitatively. Then, the UM function of each evaluation index was obtained based on the initial data for the analysis of the blastability of six rock mass at a highway improvement cutting site in North Wales. The index weights of the factors were calculated by entropy theory, and credible degree identification (CDI) criteria were established according to the UM theory. The results of rock mass blastability evaluation were obtained by the CDI criteria. The results show that the UM model assessment results agree well with the actual records, and are consistent with those of the fuzzy sets evaluation method. Meanwhile, the unascertained superiority degree of rock mass blastability of samples S1-$6 which can be calculated by scoring criteria are 3.428 5, 3.453 3, 4.058 7, 3.675 9, 3.516 7 and 3.289 7, respectively. Furthermore, the proposed method can take into account large amount of uncertain information in blastability evaluation, which can provide an effective, credible and feasible way for estimating the blastability of rock mass. Engineering practices show that it can complete the blastability assessment systematically and scientifically without any assumption by the proposed model, which can be applied to practical engineering. 展开更多
关键词 rock mass BLASTABILITY unascertained measurement (UM) model information entropy PREDICTION
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Robust sliding mode control for uncertain networked control system with two-channel packet dropouts 被引量:5
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作者 ZHANG Yu REN Li-tong +2 位作者 XIE Shou-sheng ZHANG Le-di ZHOU Bin 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2019年第4期881-892,共12页
A robust sliding mode control algorithm is developed for a class of networked control system with packet dropouts in both sensor-controller channel and controller-actuator channel,and at the same time mismatched param... A robust sliding mode control algorithm is developed for a class of networked control system with packet dropouts in both sensor-controller channel and controller-actuator channel,and at the same time mismatched parametric uncertainty and external disturbance are also taken into consideration.A two-level Bernoulli process has been used to describe the packet dropouts existing in both channels.A novel integral sliding surface is proposed,based on which the H∞performance of system sliding mode motion is analyzed.Then the sufficient condition for system stability and robustness is derived in the form of linear matrix inequality(LMI).A sliding mode controller is designed which can guarantee a relatively ideal system dynamic performance and has certain robustness against unknown parameter perturbations and external disturbances.The results from numerical simulations are presented to corroborate the validity of the proposed controller. 展开更多
关键词 networked control system sliding mode control packet dropout UNCERTAINTY
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Probabilistic model and analysis of coupled train-ballasted track-subgrade system with uncertain structural parameters 被引量:7
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作者 MAO Jian-feng XIAO Yuan-jie +2 位作者 YU Zhi-wu Erol TUTUMLUER ZHU Zhi-hui 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2021年第7期2238-2256,共19页
Random dynamic responses caused by the uncertainty of structural parameters of the coupled train-ballasted track-subgrade system under train loading can pose safety concerns to the train operation.This paper introduce... Random dynamic responses caused by the uncertainty of structural parameters of the coupled train-ballasted track-subgrade system under train loading can pose safety concerns to the train operation.This paper introduced a computational model for analyzing probabilistic dynamic responses of three-dimensional(3D)coupled train-ballasted track-subgrade system(TBTSS),where the coupling effects of uncertain rail irregularities,stiffness and damping properties of ballast and subgrade layers were simultaneously considered.The number theoretical method(NTM)was employed to design discrete points for the multi-dimensional stochastic parameters.The time-histories of stochastic dynamic vibrations of the TBSS with systematically uncertain structural parameters were calculated accurately and efficiently by employing the probability density evolution method(PDEM).The model-predicted results were consistent with those by the Monte Carlo simulation method.A sensitivity study was performed to assess the relative importance of those uncertain structural parameters,based on which a case study was presented to explore the stochastic probability evolution mechanism of such train-ballasted track-subgrade system. 展开更多
关键词 coupled train-ballast-subgrade system structural parameter uncertainty stochastic dynamic analysis probability density evolution method wheel-rail interaction
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Similarity measure on intuitionistic fuzzy sets 被引量:5
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作者 PARK Jean-Ho HWANG Jai-Hyuk +2 位作者 PARK Wook-Je 魏荷 LEE Sang-Hyuk 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2013年第8期2233-2238,共6页
Study of fuzzy entropy and similarity measure on intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IFSs) was proposed and analyzed. Unlike fuzzy set, IFSs contain uncertainty named hesitance, which is contained in fuzzy membership function ... Study of fuzzy entropy and similarity measure on intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IFSs) was proposed and analyzed. Unlike fuzzy set, IFSs contain uncertainty named hesitance, which is contained in fuzzy membership function itself. Hence, designing fuzzy entropy is not easy because of many entropy definitions. By considering different fuzzy entropy definitions, fuzzy entropy on IFSs is designed and discussed. Similarity measure was also presented and its usefulness was verified to evaluate degree of similarity. 展开更多
关键词 similarity measure MULTI-DIMENSION discrete data relative degree power interconnected system
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Passive target tracking with intermittent measurement based on random finite set 被引量:4
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作者 罗小波 范红旗 +1 位作者 宋志勇 付强 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2014年第6期2282-2291,共10页
In the tracking problem for the maritime radiation source by a passive sensor,there are three main difficulties,i.e.,the poor observability of the radiation source,the detection uncertainty(false and missed detections... In the tracking problem for the maritime radiation source by a passive sensor,there are three main difficulties,i.e.,the poor observability of the radiation source,the detection uncertainty(false and missed detections)and the uncertainty of the target appearing/disappearing in the field of view.These difficulties can make the establishment or maintenance of the radiation source target track invalid.By incorporating the elevation information of the passive sensor into the automatic bearings-only tracking(BOT)and consolidating these uncertainties under the framework of random finite set(RFS),a novel approach for tracking maritime radiation source target with intermittent measurement was proposed.Under the RFS framework,the target state was represented as a set that can take on either an empty set or a singleton; meanwhile,the measurement uncertainty was modeled as a Bernoulli random finite set.Moreover,the elevation information of the sensor platform was introduced to ensure observability of passive measurements and obtain the unique target localization.Simulation experiments verify the validity of the proposed approach for tracking maritime radiation source and demonstrate the superiority of the proposed approach in comparison with the traditional integrated probabilistic data association(IPDA)method.The tracking performance under different conditions,particularly involving different existence probabilities and different appearance durations of the target,indicates that the method to solve our problem is robust and effective. 展开更多
关键词 passive target tracking maritime target joint detection and tracking intermittent measurement random finite set poor observability
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Disturbance observer based position tracking of electro-hydraulic actuator 被引量:4
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作者 国凯 魏建华 田启岩 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2015年第6期2158-2165,共8页
A nonlinear controller based on an extended second-order disturbance observer is presented to track desired position for an electro-hydraulic single-rod actuator in the presence of both external disturbances and param... A nonlinear controller based on an extended second-order disturbance observer is presented to track desired position for an electro-hydraulic single-rod actuator in the presence of both external disturbances and parameter uncertainties. The proposed extended second-order disturbance observer deals with not only the external perturbations, but also parameter uncertainties which are commonly regarded as lumped disturbances in previous researches. Besides, the outer position tracking loop is designed with cylinder load pressure as output; and the inner pressure control loop provides the hydraulic actuator the characteristic of a force generator. The stability of the closed-loop system is provided based on Lyapunov theory. The performance of the controller is verified through simulations and experiments. The results demonstrate that the proposed nonlinear position tracking controller, together with the extended second-order disturbance observer, gives an excellent tracking performance in the presence of parameter uncertainties and external disturbance. 展开更多
关键词 electro-hydraulic system single-rod actuator disturbance observer external disturbance parameter uncertainty
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Adaptive neural network based sliding mode altitude control for a quadrotor UAV 被引量:4
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作者 Hadi RAZMI 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2018年第11期2654-2663,共10页
Reasons and realities such as being non-linear of dynamical equations,being lightweight and unstable nature of quadrotor,along with internal and external disturbances and parametric uncertainties,have caused that the ... Reasons and realities such as being non-linear of dynamical equations,being lightweight and unstable nature of quadrotor,along with internal and external disturbances and parametric uncertainties,have caused that the controller design for these quadrotors is considered the challenging issue of the day.In this work,an adaptive sliding mode controller based on neural network is proposed to control the altitude of a quadrotor.The error and error derivative of the altitude of a quadrotor are the inputs of neural network and altitude sliding surface variable is its output.Neural network estimates the sliding surface variable adaptively according to the conditions of quadrotor and sets the altitude of a quadrotor equal to the desired value.The proposed controller stability has been proven by Lyapunov theory and it is shown that all system states reach to sliding surface and are remaining in it.The superiority of the proposed control method has been proven by comparison and simulation results. 展开更多
关键词 adaptive sliding mode controller analog neural network(ANN) altitude control of quadrotor parametric uncertainty
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