It is not reasonable that one can only use the adjoint of model in data assimilation. The simulated numerical experiment shows that for the tidal model, the result of the adjoint of equation is almost the same as that...It is not reasonable that one can only use the adjoint of model in data assimilation. The simulated numerical experiment shows that for the tidal model, the result of the adjoint of equation is almost the same as that of the adjoint of model: the averaged absolute difference of the amplitude between observations and simulation is less than 5.0 cm and that of the phase-lag is less than 5.0°. The results are both in good agreement with the observed M2 tide in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea. For comparison, the traditional methods also have been used to simulate M2 tide in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea. The initial guess values of the boundary conditions are given first, and then are adjusted to acquire the simulated results that are as close as possible to the observations. As the boundary conditions contain 72 values, which should be adjusted and how to adjust them can only be partially solved by adjusting them many times. The satisfied results are hard to acquire even gigantic efforts are done. Here, the automation of the treatment of the open boundary conditions is realized. The method is unique and superior to the traditional methods. It is emphasized that if the adjoint of equation is used, tedious and complicated mathematical deduction can be avoided. Therefore the adjoint of equation should attract much attention.展开更多
数值天气预报是天气预报业务和防灾减灾的核心科技。中国数值天气预报研究和业务应用一直受到高度重视,在基础理论研究、关键技术突破和业务系统研制方面取得了有广泛国际影响力的研究成果。在回顾中国数值天气预报技术及业务系统发展...数值天气预报是天气预报业务和防灾减灾的核心科技。中国数值天气预报研究和业务应用一直受到高度重视,在基础理论研究、关键技术突破和业务系统研制方面取得了有广泛国际影响力的研究成果。在回顾中国数值天气预报技术及业务系统发展基础上,重点综述中国自主发展的GRAPES(Global Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System)和YHGSM(YinHe Global Spectral Model)两大业务预报系统的重要科技进展。GRAPES在模式动力框架、四维变分资料同化、卫星资料同化技术、雷达资料同化应用、集合预报和云物理过程等方面实现了技术突破,建立了无缝隙的、包含确定性预报和集合预报系统的中国气象局数值天气预报业务体系。YHGSM持续走谱模式发展路线,突破了干空气质量守恒全球大气谱模式、集合四维变分资料同化、海-陆-气耦合集合预报等技术,建立了以高分辨率全球中期和月延伸数值预报系统为核心的数值预报体系。军队和地方自主研发的数值天气预报系统是长期坚持既定科学技术方向、学术研究和业务研制紧密结合的结果。展开更多
研究I的结果表明:线性平衡方程(LBE)在热带地区不适用,而进一步改进方向是削弱LBE在该区域的约束程度。本文以此为基础,在GRAPES(global/regional assimilation and prediction system)全球变分同化系统中引入动力与统计混合平衡约束方...研究I的结果表明:线性平衡方程(LBE)在热带地区不适用,而进一步改进方向是削弱LBE在该区域的约束程度。本文以此为基础,在GRAPES(global/regional assimilation and prediction system)全球变分同化系统中引入动力与统计混合平衡约束方案。新方案在逐层求解LBE的基础上增加垂直方向的线性回归,回归系数随纬度和高度变化。针对背景误差协方差的分析表明,新方案可以更好的保证独立分析变量间预报误差不相关的基本要求,并大幅度减小热带地区平衡气压预报误差方差的量值和占总方差的比例。单点试验结果表明,与LBE方案相比,新方案对中、高纬影响很小,但在热带地区成功实现了风、压场分析的解耦,两者分析更为独立。并且,虽未考虑具体波动模态,但新方案给出的风、压场协相关结构与研究I的理论分析结果相近。一个月的同化循环与预报结果表明,引入新方案后,赤道外地区的同化预报效果为中性偏正,而热带地区风场的同化预报效果显著提高,LBE方案中平流层低层的风场同化预报异常被基本消除。展开更多
文摘It is not reasonable that one can only use the adjoint of model in data assimilation. The simulated numerical experiment shows that for the tidal model, the result of the adjoint of equation is almost the same as that of the adjoint of model: the averaged absolute difference of the amplitude between observations and simulation is less than 5.0 cm and that of the phase-lag is less than 5.0°. The results are both in good agreement with the observed M2 tide in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea. For comparison, the traditional methods also have been used to simulate M2 tide in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea. The initial guess values of the boundary conditions are given first, and then are adjusted to acquire the simulated results that are as close as possible to the observations. As the boundary conditions contain 72 values, which should be adjusted and how to adjust them can only be partially solved by adjusting them many times. The satisfied results are hard to acquire even gigantic efforts are done. Here, the automation of the treatment of the open boundary conditions is realized. The method is unique and superior to the traditional methods. It is emphasized that if the adjoint of equation is used, tedious and complicated mathematical deduction can be avoided. Therefore the adjoint of equation should attract much attention.
文摘数值天气预报是天气预报业务和防灾减灾的核心科技。中国数值天气预报研究和业务应用一直受到高度重视,在基础理论研究、关键技术突破和业务系统研制方面取得了有广泛国际影响力的研究成果。在回顾中国数值天气预报技术及业务系统发展基础上,重点综述中国自主发展的GRAPES(Global Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System)和YHGSM(YinHe Global Spectral Model)两大业务预报系统的重要科技进展。GRAPES在模式动力框架、四维变分资料同化、卫星资料同化技术、雷达资料同化应用、集合预报和云物理过程等方面实现了技术突破,建立了无缝隙的、包含确定性预报和集合预报系统的中国气象局数值天气预报业务体系。YHGSM持续走谱模式发展路线,突破了干空气质量守恒全球大气谱模式、集合四维变分资料同化、海-陆-气耦合集合预报等技术,建立了以高分辨率全球中期和月延伸数值预报系统为核心的数值预报体系。军队和地方自主研发的数值天气预报系统是长期坚持既定科学技术方向、学术研究和业务研制紧密结合的结果。
文摘研究I的结果表明:线性平衡方程(LBE)在热带地区不适用,而进一步改进方向是削弱LBE在该区域的约束程度。本文以此为基础,在GRAPES(global/regional assimilation and prediction system)全球变分同化系统中引入动力与统计混合平衡约束方案。新方案在逐层求解LBE的基础上增加垂直方向的线性回归,回归系数随纬度和高度变化。针对背景误差协方差的分析表明,新方案可以更好的保证独立分析变量间预报误差不相关的基本要求,并大幅度减小热带地区平衡气压预报误差方差的量值和占总方差的比例。单点试验结果表明,与LBE方案相比,新方案对中、高纬影响很小,但在热带地区成功实现了风、压场分析的解耦,两者分析更为独立。并且,虽未考虑具体波动模态,但新方案给出的风、压场协相关结构与研究I的理论分析结果相近。一个月的同化循环与预报结果表明,引入新方案后,赤道外地区的同化预报效果为中性偏正,而热带地区风场的同化预报效果显著提高,LBE方案中平流层低层的风场同化预报异常被基本消除。
