According to the chaotic and non-linear characters of power load data,the time series matrix is established with the theory of phase-space reconstruction,and then Lyapunov exponents with chaotic time series are comput...According to the chaotic and non-linear characters of power load data,the time series matrix is established with the theory of phase-space reconstruction,and then Lyapunov exponents with chaotic time series are computed to determine the time delay and the embedding dimension.Due to different features of the data,data mining algorithm is conducted to classify the data into different groups.Redundant information is eliminated by the advantage of data mining technology,and the historical loads that have highly similar features with the forecasting day are searched by the system.As a result,the training data can be decreased and the computing speed can also be improved when constructing support vector machine(SVM) model.Then,SVM algorithm is used to predict power load with parameters that get in pretreatment.In order to prove the effectiveness of the new model,the calculation with data mining SVM algorithm is compared with that of single SVM and back propagation network.It can be seen that the new DSVM algorithm effectively improves the forecast accuracy by 0.75%,1.10% and 1.73% compared with SVM for two random dimensions of 11-dimension,14-dimension and BP network,respectively.This indicates that the DSVM gains perfect improvement effect in the short-term power load forecasting.展开更多
Firstly,general regression neural network(GRNN) was used for variable selection of key influencing factors of residential load(RL) forecasting.Secondly,the key influencing factors chosen by GRNN were used as the input...Firstly,general regression neural network(GRNN) was used for variable selection of key influencing factors of residential load(RL) forecasting.Secondly,the key influencing factors chosen by GRNN were used as the input and output terminals of urban and rural RL for simulating and learning.In addition,the suitable parameters of final model were obtained through applying the evidence theory to combine the optimization results which were calculated with the PSO method and the Bayes theory.Then,the model of PSO-Bayes least squares support vector machine(PSO-Bayes-LS-SVM) was established.A case study was then provided for the learning and testing.The empirical analysis results show that the mean square errors of urban and rural RL forecast are 0.02% and 0.04%,respectively.At last,taking a specific province RL in China as an example,the forecast results of RL from 2011 to 2015 were obtained.展开更多
During the Twelfth Five-Year plan,large-scale construction of smart grid with safe and stable operation requires a timely and accurate short-term load forecasting method.Moreover,along with the full-scale smart grid c...During the Twelfth Five-Year plan,large-scale construction of smart grid with safe and stable operation requires a timely and accurate short-term load forecasting method.Moreover,along with the full-scale smart grid construction,the power supply mode and consumption mode of the whole system can be optimized through the accurate short-term load forecasting;and the security,stability and cleanness of the system can be guaranteed.展开更多
By adopting the chaotic searching to improve the global searching performance of the particle swarm optimization (PSO), and using the improved PSO to optimize the key parameters of the support vector machine (SVM) for...By adopting the chaotic searching to improve the global searching performance of the particle swarm optimization (PSO), and using the improved PSO to optimize the key parameters of the support vector machine (SVM) forecasting model, an improved SVM model named CPSO-SVM model was proposed. The new model was applied to predicting the short term load, and the improved effect of the new model was proved. The simulation results of the South China Power Market’s actual data show that the new method can effectively improve the forecast accuracy by 2.23% and 3.87%, respectively, compared with the PSO-SVM and SVM methods. Compared with that of the PSO-SVM and SVM methods, the time cost of the new model is only increased by 3.15 and 4.61 s, respectively, which indicates that the CPSO-SVM model gains significant improved effects.展开更多
Short-term forecasting is a difficult problem because of the influence of non-linear factors and irregular events.A novel short-term forecasting method named TIK was proposed,in which ARMA forecasting model was used t...Short-term forecasting is a difficult problem because of the influence of non-linear factors and irregular events.A novel short-term forecasting method named TIK was proposed,in which ARMA forecasting model was used to consider the load time series trend forecasting,intelligence forecasting DESVR model was applied to estimate the non-linear influence,and knowledge mining methods were applied to correct the errors caused by irregular events.In order to prove the effectiveness of the proposed model,an application of the daily maximum load forecasting was evaluated.The experimental results show that the DESVR model improves the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) from 2.82% to 2.55%,and the knowledge rules can improve the MAPE from 2.55% to 2.30%.Compared with the single ARMA forecasting method and ARMA combined SVR forecasting method,it can be proved that TIK method gains the best performance in short-term load forecasting.展开更多
A new support vector machine （SVM） optimized by an improved particle swarm optimization （PSO） combined with simulated annealing algorithm （SA） was proposed. By incorporating with the simulated annealing method, ...A new support vector machine （SVM） optimized by an improved particle swarm optimization （PSO） combined with simulated annealing algorithm （SA） was proposed. By incorporating with the simulated annealing method, the global searching capacity of the particle swarm optimization（SAPSO） was enchanced, and the searching capacity of the particle swarm optimization was studied. Then, the improyed particle swarm optimization algorithm was used to optimize the parameters of SVM （c,σ and ε）. Based on the operational data provided by a regional power grid in north China, the method was used in the actual short term load forecasting. The results show that compared to the PSO-SVM and the traditional SVM, the average time of the proposed method in the experimental process reduces by 11.6 s and 31.1 s, and the precision of the proposed method increases by 1.24% and 3.18%, respectively. So, the improved method is better than the PSO-SVM and the traditional SVM.展开更多
Numerical simulation has been carried out to investigate the major factors affecting the time of composite regeneration due to coupling cerium-based additive and microwave for diesel particulate f3ilter(DPF). Effect o...Numerical simulation has been carried out to investigate the major factors affecting the time of composite regeneration due to coupling cerium-based additive and microwave for diesel particulate f3ilter(DPF). Effect on the composite regeneration time from various factors such as mass flow rate of exhaust gas, temperature of exhaust gas, oxygen concentration of exhaust gas, microwave power and amount of cerium-based additive are investigated. And a mathematical model based on fuzzy least squares support vector machines has been developed to forecast the endpoint of the composite regeneration. The results show that the relative error of endpoint forecasting model of composite regeneration is less than 3.5%, and the oxygen concentration of exhaust gas has the biggest effect on the endpoint of composite regeneration, followed by the mass flow rate of exhaust gas, the microwave power, the temperature of exhaust gas and the amount of cerium-based additive.展开更多
A support vector machine (SVM) forecasting model based on rough set (RS) data preprocess was proposed by combining the rough set attribute reduction and the support vector machine regression algorithm, because there a...A support vector machine (SVM) forecasting model based on rough set (RS) data preprocess was proposed by combining the rough set attribute reduction and the support vector machine regression algorithm, because there are strong complementarities between two models. Firstly, the rough set was used to reduce the condition attributes, then to eliminate the attributes that were redundant for the forecast, Secondly, it adopted the minimum condition attributes obtained by reduction and the corresponding original data to re-form a new training sample, which only kept the important attributes affecting the forecast accuracy. Finally, it studied and trained the SVM with the training samples after reduction, inputted the test samples re-formed by the minimum condition attributes and the corresponding original data, and then got the mapping relationship model between condition attributes and forecast variables after testing it. This model was used to forecast the power supply and demand. The results show that the average absolute error rate of power consumption of the whole society and yearly maximum load are 14.21% and 13.23%, respectively, which indicates that the RS-SVM forecast model has a higher degree of accuracy.展开更多
Accurate forecasting of wind velocity can improve the economic dispatch and safe operation of the power system. Support vector machine (SVM) has been proved to be an efficient approach for forecasting. According to th...Accurate forecasting of wind velocity can improve the economic dispatch and safe operation of the power system. Support vector machine (SVM) has been proved to be an efficient approach for forecasting. According to the analysis with support vector machine method, the drawback of determining the parameters only by experts' experience should be improved. After a detailed description of the methodology of SVM and simulated annealing, an improved algorithm was proposed for the automatic optimization of parameters using SVM method. An example has proved that the proposed method can efficiently select the parameters of the SVM method. And by optimizing the parameters, the forecasting accuracy of the max wind velocity increases by 34.45%, which indicates that the new SASVM model improves the forecasting accuracy.展开更多
A dynamic parallel forecasting model is proposed, which is based on the problem of current forecasting models and their combined model. According to the process of the model, the fuzzy C-means clustering algorithm is ...A dynamic parallel forecasting model is proposed, which is based on the problem of current forecasting models and their combined model. According to the process of the model, the fuzzy C-means clustering algorithm is improved in outliers operation and distance in the clusters and among the clusters. Firstly, the input data sets are optimized and their coherence is ensured, the region scale algorithm is modified and non-isometric multi scale region fuzzy time series model is built. At the same time, the particle swarm optimization algorithm about the particle speed, location and inertia weight value is improved, this method is used to optimize the parameters of support vector machine, construct the combined forecast model, build the dynamic parallel forecast model, and calculate the dynamic weight values and regard the product of the weight value and forecast value to be the final forecast values. At last, the example shows the improved forecast model is effective and accurate.展开更多
A support vector machine time series forecasting model based on rough set data preprocessing was proposed by combining rough set attribute reduction and support vector machine regression algorithm. First, remove the r...A support vector machine time series forecasting model based on rough set data preprocessing was proposed by combining rough set attribute reduction and support vector machine regression algorithm. First, remove the redundant attribute for forecasting from condition attribute by rough set method; then use the minimum condition attribute set obtained after the reduction and the corresponding initial data, reform a new training sample set which only retain the important attributes influencing the forecasting accuracy; study and train the support vector machine with the training sample obtained after reduction, and then input the reformed testing sample set according to the minimum condition attribute and corresponding initial data. The model was tested and the mapping relation was got between the condition attribute and forecasting variable. Eventually, power supply and demand were forecasted in this model. The average absolute error rates of power consumption of the whole society and yearly maximum load are respectively 14.21% and 13.23%. It shows that RS-SVM time series forecasting model has high forecasting accuracy.展开更多
基金Project(70671039) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘According to the chaotic and non-linear characters of power load data,the time series matrix is established with the theory of phase-space reconstruction,and then Lyapunov exponents with chaotic time series are computed to determine the time delay and the embedding dimension.Due to different features of the data,data mining algorithm is conducted to classify the data into different groups.Redundant information is eliminated by the advantage of data mining technology,and the historical loads that have highly similar features with the forecasting day are searched by the system.As a result,the training data can be decreased and the computing speed can also be improved when constructing support vector machine(SVM) model.Then,SVM algorithm is used to predict power load with parameters that get in pretreatment.In order to prove the effectiveness of the new model,the calculation with data mining SVM algorithm is compared with that of single SVM and back propagation network.It can be seen that the new DSVM algorithm effectively improves the forecast accuracy by 0.75%,1.10% and 1.73% compared with SVM for two random dimensions of 11-dimension,14-dimension and BP network,respectively.This indicates that the DSVM gains perfect improvement effect in the short-term power load forecasting.
基金Project(07JA790092) supported by the Research Grants from Humanities and Social Science Program of Ministry of Education of ChinaProject(10MR44) supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities in China
文摘Firstly,general regression neural network(GRNN) was used for variable selection of key influencing factors of residential load(RL) forecasting.Secondly,the key influencing factors chosen by GRNN were used as the input and output terminals of urban and rural RL for simulating and learning.In addition,the suitable parameters of final model were obtained through applying the evidence theory to combine the optimization results which were calculated with the PSO method and the Bayes theory.Then,the model of PSO-Bayes least squares support vector machine(PSO-Bayes-LS-SVM) was established.A case study was then provided for the learning and testing.The empirical analysis results show that the mean square errors of urban and rural RL forecast are 0.02% and 0.04%,respectively.At last,taking a specific province RL in China as an example,the forecast results of RL from 2011 to 2015 were obtained.
文摘During the Twelfth Five-Year plan,large-scale construction of smart grid with safe and stable operation requires a timely and accurate short-term load forecasting method.Moreover,along with the full-scale smart grid construction,the power supply mode and consumption mode of the whole system can be optimized through the accurate short-term load forecasting;and the security,stability and cleanness of the system can be guaranteed.
基金Project(70572090) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘By adopting the chaotic searching to improve the global searching performance of the particle swarm optimization (PSO), and using the improved PSO to optimize the key parameters of the support vector machine (SVM) forecasting model, an improved SVM model named CPSO-SVM model was proposed. The new model was applied to predicting the short term load, and the improved effect of the new model was proved. The simulation results of the South China Power Market’s actual data show that the new method can effectively improve the forecast accuracy by 2.23% and 3.87%, respectively, compared with the PSO-SVM and SVM methods. Compared with that of the PSO-SVM and SVM methods, the time cost of the new model is only increased by 3.15 and 4.61 s, respectively, which indicates that the CPSO-SVM model gains significant improved effects.
基金Projects(70671039,71071052) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProjects(10QX44,09QX68) supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities in China
文摘Short-term forecasting is a difficult problem because of the influence of non-linear factors and irregular events.A novel short-term forecasting method named TIK was proposed,in which ARMA forecasting model was used to consider the load time series trend forecasting,intelligence forecasting DESVR model was applied to estimate the non-linear influence,and knowledge mining methods were applied to correct the errors caused by irregular events.In order to prove the effectiveness of the proposed model,an application of the daily maximum load forecasting was evaluated.The experimental results show that the DESVR model improves the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) from 2.82% to 2.55%,and the knowledge rules can improve the MAPE from 2.55% to 2.30%.Compared with the single ARMA forecasting method and ARMA combined SVR forecasting method,it can be proved that TIK method gains the best performance in short-term load forecasting.
基金Project(50579101) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘A new support vector machine （SVM） optimized by an improved particle swarm optimization （PSO） combined with simulated annealing algorithm （SA） was proposed. By incorporating with the simulated annealing method, the global searching capacity of the particle swarm optimization（SAPSO） was enchanced, and the searching capacity of the particle swarm optimization was studied. Then, the improyed particle swarm optimization algorithm was used to optimize the parameters of SVM （c,σ and ε）. Based on the operational data provided by a regional power grid in north China, the method was used in the actual short term load forecasting. The results show that compared to the PSO-SVM and the traditional SVM, the average time of the proposed method in the experimental process reduces by 11.6 s and 31.1 s, and the precision of the proposed method increases by 1.24% and 3.18%, respectively. So, the improved method is better than the PSO-SVM and the traditional SVM.
基金Projects(51176045,51276056)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(201208430262)supported by the National Studying Abroad Foundation Project of China
文摘Numerical simulation has been carried out to investigate the major factors affecting the time of composite regeneration due to coupling cerium-based additive and microwave for diesel particulate f3ilter(DPF). Effect on the composite regeneration time from various factors such as mass flow rate of exhaust gas, temperature of exhaust gas, oxygen concentration of exhaust gas, microwave power and amount of cerium-based additive are investigated. And a mathematical model based on fuzzy least squares support vector machines has been developed to forecast the endpoint of the composite regeneration. The results show that the relative error of endpoint forecasting model of composite regeneration is less than 3.5%, and the oxygen concentration of exhaust gas has the biggest effect on the endpoint of composite regeneration, followed by the mass flow rate of exhaust gas, the microwave power, the temperature of exhaust gas and the amount of cerium-based additive.
基金Project(70901025) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘A support vector machine (SVM) forecasting model based on rough set (RS) data preprocess was proposed by combining the rough set attribute reduction and the support vector machine regression algorithm, because there are strong complementarities between two models. Firstly, the rough set was used to reduce the condition attributes, then to eliminate the attributes that were redundant for the forecast, Secondly, it adopted the minimum condition attributes obtained by reduction and the corresponding original data to re-form a new training sample, which only kept the important attributes affecting the forecast accuracy. Finally, it studied and trained the SVM with the training samples after reduction, inputted the test samples re-formed by the minimum condition attributes and the corresponding original data, and then got the mapping relationship model between condition attributes and forecast variables after testing it. This model was used to forecast the power supply and demand. The results show that the average absolute error rate of power consumption of the whole society and yearly maximum load are 14.21% and 13.23%, respectively, which indicates that the RS-SVM forecast model has a higher degree of accuracy.
基金Project(71071052) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(JB2011097) supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China
文摘Accurate forecasting of wind velocity can improve the economic dispatch and safe operation of the power system. Support vector machine (SVM) has been proved to be an efficient approach for forecasting. According to the analysis with support vector machine method, the drawback of determining the parameters only by experts' experience should be improved. After a detailed description of the methodology of SVM and simulated annealing, an improved algorithm was proposed for the automatic optimization of parameters using SVM method. An example has proved that the proposed method can efficiently select the parameters of the SVM method. And by optimizing the parameters, the forecasting accuracy of the max wind velocity increases by 34.45%, which indicates that the new SASVM model improves the forecasting accuracy.
基金supported by the National Defense Preliminary Research Program of China(A157167)the National Defense Fundamental of China(9140A19030314JB35275)
文摘A dynamic parallel forecasting model is proposed, which is based on the problem of current forecasting models and their combined model. According to the process of the model, the fuzzy C-means clustering algorithm is improved in outliers operation and distance in the clusters and among the clusters. Firstly, the input data sets are optimized and their coherence is ensured, the region scale algorithm is modified and non-isometric multi scale region fuzzy time series model is built. At the same time, the particle swarm optimization algorithm about the particle speed, location and inertia weight value is improved, this method is used to optimize the parameters of support vector machine, construct the combined forecast model, build the dynamic parallel forecast model, and calculate the dynamic weight values and regard the product of the weight value and forecast value to be the final forecast values. At last, the example shows the improved forecast model is effective and accurate.
基金Project(70373017) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘A support vector machine time series forecasting model based on rough set data preprocessing was proposed by combining rough set attribute reduction and support vector machine regression algorithm. First, remove the redundant attribute for forecasting from condition attribute by rough set method; then use the minimum condition attribute set obtained after the reduction and the corresponding initial data, reform a new training sample set which only retain the important attributes influencing the forecasting accuracy; study and train the support vector machine with the training sample obtained after reduction, and then input the reformed testing sample set according to the minimum condition attribute and corresponding initial data. The model was tested and the mapping relation was got between the condition attribute and forecasting variable. Eventually, power supply and demand were forecasted in this model. The average absolute error rates of power consumption of the whole society and yearly maximum load are respectively 14.21% and 13.23%. It shows that RS-SVM time series forecasting model has high forecasting accuracy.
