In the field of rail transit,the UK Department of Transport stated that it will realize a comprehensive transformation of UK railways by 2050,abandoning traditional diesel trains and upgrading them to new environmenta...In the field of rail transit,the UK Department of Transport stated that it will realize a comprehensive transformation of UK railways by 2050,abandoning traditional diesel trains and upgrading them to new environmentally friendly trains.The current mainstream upgrade methods are electrification and hydrogen fuel cells.Comprehensive upgrades are costly,and choosing the optimal upgrade method for trams and mainline railways is critical.Without a sensitivity analysis,it is difficult for us to determine the influence relationship between each parameter and cost,resulting in a waste of cost when choosing a line reconstruction method.In addition,by analyzing the sensitivity of different parameters to the cost,the primary optimization direction can be determined to reduce the cost.Global higher-order sensitivity analysis enables quantification of parameter interactions,showing non-additive effects between parameters.This paper selects the main parameters that affect the retrofit cost and analyzes the retrofit cost of the two upgrade methods in the case of trams and mainline railways through local and global sensitivity analysis methods.The results of the analysis show that,given the current UK rail system,it is more economical to choose electric trams and hydrogen mainline trains.For trams,the speed at which the train travels has the greatest impact on the final cost.Through the sensitivity analysis,this paper provides an effective data reference for the current railway upgrading and reconstruction plan and provides a theoretical basis for the next step of train parameter optimization.展开更多
The phenomenology involved in severe accidents in nuclear reactors is highly complex.Currently,integrated analysis programs used for severe accident analysis heavily rely on custom empirical parameters,which introduce...The phenomenology involved in severe accidents in nuclear reactors is highly complex.Currently,integrated analysis programs used for severe accident analysis heavily rely on custom empirical parameters,which introduce considerable uncertainty.Therefore,in recent years,the field of severe accidents has shifted its focus toward applying uncertainty analysis methods to quantify uncertainty in safety assessment programs,known as“best estimate plus uncertainty(BEPU).”This approach aids in enhancing our comprehension of these programs and their further development and improvement.This study concentrates on a third-generation pressurized water reactor equipped with advanced active and passive mitigation strategies.Through an Integrated Severe Accident Analysis Program(ISAA),numerical modeling and uncertainty analysis were conducted on severe accidents resulting from large break loss of coolant accidents.Seventeen uncertainty parameters of the ISAA program were meticulously screened.Using Wilks'formula,the developed uncertainty program code,SAUP,was employed to carry out Latin hypercube sampling,while ISAA was employed to execute batch calculations.Statistical analysis was then conducted on two figures of merit,namely hydrogen generation and the release of fission products within the pressure vessel.Uncertainty calculations revealed that hydrogen production and the fraction of fission product released exhibited a normal distribution,ranging from 182.784 to 330.664 kg and from 15.6 to 84.3%,respectively.The ratio of hydrogen production to reactor thermal power fell within the range of 0.0578–0.105.A sensitivity analysis was performed for uncertain input parameters,revealing significant correlations between the failure temperature of the cladding oxide layer,maximum melt flow rate,size of the particulate debris,and porosity of the debris with both hydrogen generation and the release of fission products.展开更多
Estimating the oil-water temperatures in flowlines is challenging especially in deepwater and ultra-deepwater offshore applications where issues of flow assurance and dramatic heat transfer are likely to occur due to ...Estimating the oil-water temperatures in flowlines is challenging especially in deepwater and ultra-deepwater offshore applications where issues of flow assurance and dramatic heat transfer are likely to occur due to the temperature difference between the fluids and the surroundings. Heat transfer analysis is very important for the prediction and prevention of deposits in oil and water flowlines, which could impede the flow and give rise to huge financial losses. Therefore, a 3D mathematical model of oil-water Newtonian flow under non-isothermal conditions is established to explore the complex mechanisms of the two-phase oil-water transportation and heat transfer in different flowline inclinations. In this work, a non-isothermal two-phase flow model is first modified and then implemented in the InterFoam solver by introducing the energy equation using OpenFOAM® code. The Low Reynolds Number (LRN) k-ε turbulence model is utilized to resolve the turbulence phenomena within the oil and water mixtures. The flow patterns and the local heat transfer coefficients (HTC) for two-phase oil-water flow at different flowlines inclinations (0°, +4°, +7°) are validated by the experimental literature results and the relative errors are also compared. Global sensitivity analysis is then conducted to determine the effect of the different parameters on the performance of the produced two-phase hydrocarbon systems for effective subsea fluid transportation. Thereafter, HTC and flow patterns for oil-water flows at downward inclinations of 4°, and 7° can be predicted by the models. The velocity distribution, pressure gradient, liquid holdup, and temperature variation at the flowline cross-sections are simulated and analyzed in detail. Consequently, the numerical model can be generally applied to compute the global properties of the fluid and other operating parameters that are beneficial in the management of two-phase oil-water transportation.展开更多
Background:Process-based models are widely used to simulate forest productivity,but complex parameterization and calibration challenge the application and development of these models.Sensitivity analysis of numerous p...Background:Process-based models are widely used to simulate forest productivity,but complex parameterization and calibration challenge the application and development of these models.Sensitivity analysis of numerous parameters is an essential step in model calibration and carbon flux simulation.However,parameters are not dependent on each other,and the results of sensitivity analysis usually vary due to different forest types and regions.Hence,global and representative sensitivity analysis would provide reliable information for simple calibration.Methods:To determine the contributions of input parameters to gross primary productivity(GPP)and net primary productivity(NPP),regression analysis and extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity testing(EFAST)were conducted for Biome-BGCMuSo to calculate the sensitivity index of the parameters at four observation sites under climate gradient from ChinaFLUX.Results:Generally,GPP and NPP were highly sensitive to C:Nleaf(C:N of leaves),Wint(canopy water interception coefficient),k(canopy light extinction coefficient),FLNR(fraction of leaf N in Rubisco),MRpern(coefficient of linear relationship between tissue N and maintenance respiration),VPDf(vapor pressure deficit complete conductance reduction),and SLA1(canopy average specific leaf area in phenological phase 1)at all observation sites.Various sensitive parameters occurred at four observation sites within different climate zones.GPP and NPP were particularly sensitive to FLNR,SLA1 and Wint,and C:Nleaf in temperate,alpine and subtropical zones,respectively.Conclusions:The results indicated that sensitivity parameters of China's forest ecosystems change with climate gradient.We found that parameter calibration should be performed according to plant functional type(PFT),and more attention needs to be paid to the differences in climate and environment.These findings contribute to determining the target parameters in field experiments and model calibration.展开更多
In order to analyze the stability of the underground rock structures,knowing the sensitivity of geomechanical parameters is important.To investigate the priority of these geomechanical properties in the stability of c...In order to analyze the stability of the underground rock structures,knowing the sensitivity of geomechanical parameters is important.To investigate the priority of these geomechanical properties in the stability of cavern,a sensitivity analysis has been performed on a single cavern in various rock mass qualities according to RMR using Phase 2.The stability of cavern has been studied by investigating the side wall deformation.Results showed that most sensitive properties are coefficient of lateral stress and modulus of deformation.Also parameters of Hoek-Brown criterion and r c have no sensitivity when cavern is in a perfect elastic state.But in an elasto-plastic state,parameters of Hoek-Brown criterion and r c affect the deformability;such effect becomes more remarkable with increasing plastic area.Other parameters have different sensitivities concerning rock mass quality(RMR).Results have been used to propose the best set of parameters for study on prediction of sidewall displacement.展开更多
Reservoir performance prediction is one of the main steps during a field development plan.Due to the complexity and time-consuming aspects of numerical simulators,it is helpful to develop analytical tools for a rapid ...Reservoir performance prediction is one of the main steps during a field development plan.Due to the complexity and time-consuming aspects of numerical simulators,it is helpful to develop analytical tools for a rapid primary analysis.The capacitance-resistance model(CRM)is a simple technique for reservoir management and optimization.This method is an advanced time-dependent material balance equation which is combined with a productivity equation.CRM uses production/injection data and bottom-hole pressure as inputs to build a reliable model,which is then combined with the oil-cut model and converted to a predictive tool.CRM has been studied thoroughly for water flooding projects.In this study,a modified model for gas flooding systems based on gas density and average reservoir pressure is developed.A detailed procedure is described in a synthetic reservoir model using a genetic algorithm.Then,a streamline simulation is implemented for validation of the results.The results show that the proposed model is able to calculate interwell connectivity parameters and oil production rates.Moreover,a sensitivity analysis is carried out to investigate effects of drawdown pressure and gas PVT properties on the new model.Finally,acceptable ranges of input data and limitations of the model are comprehensively discussed.展开更多
This paper presents an acoustic design sensitivity(ADS)analysis on sound radiation of structures by using the boundary element method(BEM).We calculated the velocity distribution of the thin plate by analytical method...This paper presents an acoustic design sensitivity(ADS)analysis on sound radiation of structures by using the boundary element method(BEM).We calculated the velocity distribution of the thin plate by analytical method and the surface sound pressure by Rayleigh integral,and expressed the sound radiation power of the structure in a positive definite quadratic form of the Hermitian with an impedance matrix.The ADS analysis of the plate was thus translated into the analysis of structure dynamic sensitivity and ...展开更多
In order to understand the effect of hardening ductility parameters and softening ductility parameters of the concrete damage plastic model in LS-DYNA,a sensitivity and reliability analysis of these parameters through...In order to understand the effect of hardening ductility parameters and softening ductility parameters of the concrete damage plastic model in LS-DYNA,a sensitivity and reliability analysis of these parameters through a convenient cube unit test was conducted. The results showed that the peak strength strain was independent of the hardening ductility parameter DH,but affected by AH,BH,and CH. The softening ductility was mainly related to the softening ductility parameter AS,but not affected by the damage ductility exponent BS. In case that the model with default parameters failed to match the AS-controlled damage softening phase,an optimized model with an AS correction was developed. The corrected model with the AS value of 2 matched well with the code model,and exhibited good feasibility in predicting the stress-strain curve of different grades of concrete. Moreover,the practicability of the corrected model was further validated by the conventional triaxial test. The simulated curve exhibited favorable consistence with the trial curve. Therefore,the model with parameter correction could provide a prospective reference for predicting the mechanical properties of concrete.展开更多
Many products always operate under various complex environment conditions. To describe the dynamic influence of environment factors on their reliability, a method of reliability sensitivity analysis is proposed. In th...Many products always operate under various complex environment conditions. To describe the dynamic influence of environment factors on their reliability, a method of reliability sensitivity analysis is proposed. In this method, the location parameter is assumed as a function of relevant environment variables while the scale parameter is assumed as an unknown positive constant. Then, the location parameter function is constructed by using the method of radial basis function. Using the varied environment test data, the log-likelihood function is transformed to a generalized linear expression by describing the indicator as Poisson variable. With the generalized linear model, the maximum likelihood estimations of the model coefficients are obtained. With the reliability model, the reliability sensitivity is obtained. An instance analysis shows that the method is feasible to analyze the dynamic variety characters of reliability along with environment factors and is straightforward for engineering application.展开更多
The structural response of a single-layer reticulated dome to external explosions is shaped by many variables,and the associated uncertainties imply non-deterministic results.Existing deterministic methods for predict...The structural response of a single-layer reticulated dome to external explosions is shaped by many variables,and the associated uncertainties imply non-deterministic results.Existing deterministic methods for predicting the consequences of specific explosions do not account for these uncertainties.Therefore,the impact of the uncertainties associated with these input variables on the structures’response needs to be studied and quantified.In this study,a parametric uncertainty analysis was conducted first.Then,local and global sensitivity analyses were carried out to identify the drivers of the structural dynamic response.A probabilistic structural response model was established based on sensitive variables and a reasonable sample size.Furthermore,some deterministic empirical methods for explosion-resistance design,including the plane blast load model of CONWEP,the curved blast load model under the 50%assurance level,and the 20%mass-increased method,were used for evaluating their reliability.The results of the analyses revealed that the structural response of a single-layer reticulated dome to an external blast loading is lognormally distributed.Evidently,the MB0.5 method based on the curved reflector load model yielded results with a relatively stable assurance rate and reliability,but CONWEP did not;thus,the 1.2MB0.5 method can be used for making high-confidence simple predictions.In addition,the results indicated that the structural response is very sensitive to the explosion parameters.Based on these results,it is suggested that for explosion proofing,setting up a defensive barrier is more effective than structural strengthening.展开更多
LHD's are expensive vehicles; therefore, it is important to accurately define the financial consequences associated with the investment of purchasing the mining equipment. This study concentrates on longterm incre...LHD's are expensive vehicles; therefore, it is important to accurately define the financial consequences associated with the investment of purchasing the mining equipment. This study concentrates on longterm incremental and sensitivity analysis to determine whether it is feasible to incorporate current battery technology into these machines. When revenue was taken into account, decreasing the amount of haulage in battery operated equipment by 5% or 200 kg per h amounts to a $4.0 × 10~4 loss of profit per year. On average it was found that using battery operated equipment generated $9.5 × 10~4 more in income annually, reducing the payback period from seven to two years to pay back the additional $1.0 × 10~5 investment of buying battery powered equipment over cheaper diesel equipment. Due to the estimated 5% increase in capital, it was observed that electric vehicles must possess a lifetime that is a minimum of one year longer than that of diesel equipment.展开更多
Sensitivity analysis is one of the effective methods in the dynamic modification. The sensitivity of the modal parameters such as the natural frequencies and mode shapes in undamped free vibration of mechanical transm...Sensitivity analysis is one of the effective methods in the dynamic modification. The sensitivity of the modal parameters such as the natural frequencies and mode shapes in undamped free vibration of mechanical transmission system is analyzed in this paper.In particular,the sensitivities of the modal parameters to physical parameters of shaft system such as the inertia and stiffness are given.A calculation formula for dynamic modification is presented based on the analysis of modal parameter.With a mechanical transmission system as an example, the sensitivities of natural frequencies and modes shape are calculated and analyzed. Furthermore, the dynamic modification is also carried out and a good result is obtained.展开更多
A fault sensitivity analysis（FSA）-resistance model based on time randomization is proposed.The randomization unit is composed of two parts,namely the configurable register array（R-A）and the decoder（chiefly random...A fault sensitivity analysis（FSA）-resistance model based on time randomization is proposed.The randomization unit is composed of two parts,namely the configurable register array（R-A）and the decoder（chiefly random number generator,RNG）.In this way,registers chosen can be either valid or invalid depending on the configuration information generated by the decoder.Thus,the fault sensitivity information can be confusing.Meanwhile,based on this model,a defensive scheme is designed to resist both fault sensitivity analysis（FSA）and differential power analysis（DPA）.This scheme is verified with our experiments.展开更多
A class of generalized parametric implicit quasi-variational inequalities is studied. Thereupon a new existence theorem of the solutions is proved and sensitivity of solutions for this kind of problems is analyzed.
During the operational process of natural gas gathering and transmission pipelines,the formation of hydrates is highly probable,leading to uncontrolled movement and aggregation of hydrates.The continuous migration and...During the operational process of natural gas gathering and transmission pipelines,the formation of hydrates is highly probable,leading to uncontrolled movement and aggregation of hydrates.The continuous migration and accumulation of hydrates further contribute to the obstruction of natural gas pipelines,resulting in production reduction,shutdowns,and pressure build-ups.Consequently,a cascade of risks is prone to occur.To address this issue,this study focuses on the operational process of natural gas gathering and transmission pipelines,where a comprehensive framework is established.This framework includes theoretical models for pipeline temperature distribution,pipeline pressure distribution,multiphase flow within the pipeline,hydrate blockage,and numerical solution methods.By analyzing the influence of inlet temperature,inlet pressure,and terminal pressure on hydrate formation within the pipeline,the sensitivity patterns of hydrate blockage risks are derived.The research indicates that reducing inlet pressure and terminal pressure could lead to a decreased maximum hydrate formation rate,potentially mitigating pipeline blockage during natural gas transportation.Furthermore,an increase in inlet temperature and terminal pressure,and a decrease in inlet pressure,results in a displacement of the most probable location for hydrate blockage towards the terminal station.However,it is crucial to note that operating under low-pressure conditions significantly elevates energy consumption within the gathering system,contradicting the operational goal of energy efficiency and reduction of energy consumption.Consequently,for high-pressure gathering pipelines,measures such as raising the inlet temperature or employing inhibitors,electrical heat tracing,and thermal insulation should be adopted to prevent hydrate formation during natural gas transportation.Moreover,considering abnormal conditions such as gas well production and pipeline network shutdowns,which could potentially trigger hydrate formation,the installation of methanol injection connectors remains necessary to ensure production safety.展开更多
Understanding the steady mechanism of biomass smoldering plays a great role in the utilization of smoldering technology.In this study numerical analysis of steady smoldering of biomass rods was performed.A two-dimensi...Understanding the steady mechanism of biomass smoldering plays a great role in the utilization of smoldering technology.In this study numerical analysis of steady smoldering of biomass rods was performed.A two-dimensional(2D)steady model taking into account both char oxidation and pyrolysis was developed on the basis of a calculated propagation velocity according to empirical correlation.The model was validated against the smoldering experiment of biomass rods under natural conditions,and the maximum error was smaller than 31%.Parameter sensitivity analysis found that propagation velocity decreases significantly while oxidation area and pyrolysis zone increase significantly with the increasing diameter of rod fuel.展开更多
The combustion and explosion characteristics of lithium-ion battery vent gas is a key factor in determining the fire hazard of lithium-ion batteries.Investigating the combustion and explosion hazards of lithium-ion ba...The combustion and explosion characteristics of lithium-ion battery vent gas is a key factor in determining the fire hazard of lithium-ion batteries.Investigating the combustion and explosion hazards of lithium-ion batteries vent gas can provide guidance for rescue and protection in explosion accidents in energy storage stations and new energy vehicles,thereby promoting the application and development of lithium-ion batteries.Based on this understanding and combined with previous research on gas production from lithium-ion batteries,this article conducted a study on the combustion and explosion risks of vent gas from thermal runaway of 18650 LFP batteries with different states of charge(SOCs).The explosion limit of mixed gases affected by carbon dioxide inert gas is calculated through the“elimination”method,and the Chemkin-Pro software is used to numerically simulate the laminar flame speed and adiabatic flame temperature of the battery vent gas.And the concentration of free radicals and sensitivity coefficients of major elementary reactions in the system are analyzed to comprehensively evaluate the combustion explosion hazard of battery vent gas.The study found that the 100%SOC battery has the lowest explosion limit of the vent gas.The inhibitory elementary reaction sensitivity coefficient in the reaction system is lower and the concentration of free radicals is higher.Therefore,it has the maximum laminar flame speed and adiabatic flame temperature.The combustion and explosion hazard of battery vent gas increases with the increase of SOC,and the risk of explosion is the greatest and most harmful when SOC reaches 100%.However,the related hazards decrease to varying degrees with overcharging of the battery.This article provides a feasible method for analyzing the combustion mechanism of vent gas from lithium-ion batteries,revealing the impact of SOC on the hazardousness of battery vent gas.It provides references for the safety of storage and transportation of lithium-ion batteries,safety protection of energy storage stations,and the selection of related fire extinguishing agents.展开更多
In order to study the influence of parameters on durability of marine concrete structures, the parameter＇s sensitivity analysis was studied in this paper. With the Fick＇s 2nd law of diffusion and the deterministic s...In order to study the influence of parameters on durability of marine concrete structures, the parameter＇s sensitivity analysis was studied in this paper. With the Fick＇s 2nd law of diffusion and the deterministic sensitivity analysis method （DSA）, the sensitivity factors of apparent surface chloride content, apparent chloride diffusion coefficient and its time dependent attenuation factor were analyzed. The results of the analysis show that the impact of design variables on concrete durability was different. The values of sensitivity factor of chloride diffusion coefficient and its time dependent attenuation factor were higher than others. Relative less error in chloride diffusion coefficient and its time dependent attenuation coefficient induces a bigger error in concrete durability design and life prediction. According to probability sensitivity analysis （PSA）, the influence of mean value and variance of concrete durability design variables on the durability failure probability was studied. The results of the study provide quantitative measures of the importance of concrete durability design and life prediction variables. It was concluded that the chloride diffusion coefficient and its time dependent attenuation factor have more influence on the reliability of marine concrete structural durability. In durability design and life prediction of marine concrete structures, it was very important to reduce the measure and statistic error of durability design variables.展开更多
A comparative study of Frequency Ratio(FR)and Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)models are performed for forest fire risk(FFR)mapping in Melghat Tiger Reserve forest,central India.Identification of FFR depends on various...A comparative study of Frequency Ratio(FR)and Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)models are performed for forest fire risk(FFR)mapping in Melghat Tiger Reserve forest,central India.Identification of FFR depends on various hydrometeorological parameters altitude,slope,aspect,topographic position index,normalized differential vegetation index,rainfall,air temperature,land surface temperature,wind speed,distance to settlements,and distance by road are integrated using a GIS platform.The results from FR and AHP show similar trends.The FR model was significantly higher accurate(overall accuracy of 81.3%,kappa statistic 0.78)than the AHP model(overall accuracy 79.3%,kappa statistic 0.75).The FR model total forest fire risk areas were classified into five classes:very low(7.1%),low(22.2%),moderate(32.3%),high(26.9%),and very high(11.5%).The AHP fire risk classes were very low(6.7%),low(21.7%),moderate(34.0%),high(26.7%),and very high(10.9%).Sensitivity analyses were performed for AHP and FR models.The results of the two different models are compared and justified concerning the forest fire sample points(Forest Survey of India)and burn images(2010-2016).These results help in designing more effective fire management plans to improve the allocation of resources across a landscape framework.展开更多
The paper introduces some findings about a sensitivity analysis conducted on every geometrical and mechanical parameters which characterize the use of a railway superstructure at the high velocity. This analysis was c...The paper introduces some findings about a sensitivity analysis conducted on every geometrical and mechanical parameters which characterize the use of a railway superstructure at the high velocity. This analysis was carried out by implementing a forecast model that is derived from the simplified Gazetas and Dobry one. This model turns out to be particularly appropriate in the explication of problems connected to high velocity, since it evaluates both inertial and viscous effects activated by the moving load speed. The model implementation requires the transfer function determination that represents the action occurred by the bed surfaces on the railway and it therefore contains information concerning the geometrical and the mechanical characteristics of the embankment, of the ballast and of the sub-ballast. The transfer function H has been evaluated with the finite elements method and particularly, by resorting the ANSYS code with a harmonic structural analysis in the frequencies field. The authors, from the critic examination of the system＇s dynamics response in its entirety, glean a series of observations both of a general and a specific character, finally attaining a propose of a design modification of the standard railway superstructure at the high velocity of train operation adopted today especially in Italy.展开更多
文摘In the field of rail transit,the UK Department of Transport stated that it will realize a comprehensive transformation of UK railways by 2050,abandoning traditional diesel trains and upgrading them to new environmentally friendly trains.The current mainstream upgrade methods are electrification and hydrogen fuel cells.Comprehensive upgrades are costly,and choosing the optimal upgrade method for trams and mainline railways is critical.Without a sensitivity analysis,it is difficult for us to determine the influence relationship between each parameter and cost,resulting in a waste of cost when choosing a line reconstruction method.In addition,by analyzing the sensitivity of different parameters to the cost,the primary optimization direction can be determined to reduce the cost.Global higher-order sensitivity analysis enables quantification of parameter interactions,showing non-additive effects between parameters.This paper selects the main parameters that affect the retrofit cost and analyzes the retrofit cost of the two upgrade methods in the case of trams and mainline railways through local and global sensitivity analysis methods.The results of the analysis show that,given the current UK rail system,it is more economical to choose electric trams and hydrogen mainline trains.For trams,the speed at which the train travels has the greatest impact on the final cost.Through the sensitivity analysis,this paper provides an effective data reference for the current railway upgrading and reconstruction plan and provides a theoretical basis for the next step of train parameter optimization.
基金This work was supported financially by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.12375176).
文摘The phenomenology involved in severe accidents in nuclear reactors is highly complex.Currently,integrated analysis programs used for severe accident analysis heavily rely on custom empirical parameters,which introduce considerable uncertainty.Therefore,in recent years,the field of severe accidents has shifted its focus toward applying uncertainty analysis methods to quantify uncertainty in safety assessment programs,known as“best estimate plus uncertainty(BEPU).”This approach aids in enhancing our comprehension of these programs and their further development and improvement.This study concentrates on a third-generation pressurized water reactor equipped with advanced active and passive mitigation strategies.Through an Integrated Severe Accident Analysis Program(ISAA),numerical modeling and uncertainty analysis were conducted on severe accidents resulting from large break loss of coolant accidents.Seventeen uncertainty parameters of the ISAA program were meticulously screened.Using Wilks'formula,the developed uncertainty program code,SAUP,was employed to carry out Latin hypercube sampling,while ISAA was employed to execute batch calculations.Statistical analysis was then conducted on two figures of merit,namely hydrogen generation and the release of fission products within the pressure vessel.Uncertainty calculations revealed that hydrogen production and the fraction of fission product released exhibited a normal distribution,ranging from 182.784 to 330.664 kg and from 15.6 to 84.3%,respectively.The ratio of hydrogen production to reactor thermal power fell within the range of 0.0578–0.105.A sensitivity analysis was performed for uncertain input parameters,revealing significant correlations between the failure temperature of the cladding oxide layer,maximum melt flow rate,size of the particulate debris,and porosity of the debris with both hydrogen generation and the release of fission products.
文摘Estimating the oil-water temperatures in flowlines is challenging especially in deepwater and ultra-deepwater offshore applications where issues of flow assurance and dramatic heat transfer are likely to occur due to the temperature difference between the fluids and the surroundings. Heat transfer analysis is very important for the prediction and prevention of deposits in oil and water flowlines, which could impede the flow and give rise to huge financial losses. Therefore, a 3D mathematical model of oil-water Newtonian flow under non-isothermal conditions is established to explore the complex mechanisms of the two-phase oil-water transportation and heat transfer in different flowline inclinations. In this work, a non-isothermal two-phase flow model is first modified and then implemented in the InterFoam solver by introducing the energy equation using OpenFOAM® code. The Low Reynolds Number (LRN) k-ε turbulence model is utilized to resolve the turbulence phenomena within the oil and water mixtures. The flow patterns and the local heat transfer coefficients (HTC) for two-phase oil-water flow at different flowlines inclinations (0°, +4°, +7°) are validated by the experimental literature results and the relative errors are also compared. Global sensitivity analysis is then conducted to determine the effect of the different parameters on the performance of the produced two-phase hydrocarbon systems for effective subsea fluid transportation. Thereafter, HTC and flow patterns for oil-water flows at downward inclinations of 4°, and 7° can be predicted by the models. The velocity distribution, pressure gradient, liquid holdup, and temperature variation at the flowline cross-sections are simulated and analyzed in detail. Consequently, the numerical model can be generally applied to compute the global properties of the fluid and other operating parameters that are beneficial in the management of two-phase oil-water transportation.
基金This study was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(grant number 41871279 and 41901364).
文摘Background:Process-based models are widely used to simulate forest productivity,but complex parameterization and calibration challenge the application and development of these models.Sensitivity analysis of numerous parameters is an essential step in model calibration and carbon flux simulation.However,parameters are not dependent on each other,and the results of sensitivity analysis usually vary due to different forest types and regions.Hence,global and representative sensitivity analysis would provide reliable information for simple calibration.Methods:To determine the contributions of input parameters to gross primary productivity(GPP)and net primary productivity(NPP),regression analysis and extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity testing(EFAST)were conducted for Biome-BGCMuSo to calculate the sensitivity index of the parameters at four observation sites under climate gradient from ChinaFLUX.Results:Generally,GPP and NPP were highly sensitive to C:Nleaf(C:N of leaves),Wint(canopy water interception coefficient),k(canopy light extinction coefficient),FLNR(fraction of leaf N in Rubisco),MRpern(coefficient of linear relationship between tissue N and maintenance respiration),VPDf(vapor pressure deficit complete conductance reduction),and SLA1(canopy average specific leaf area in phenological phase 1)at all observation sites.Various sensitive parameters occurred at four observation sites within different climate zones.GPP and NPP were particularly sensitive to FLNR,SLA1 and Wint,and C:Nleaf in temperate,alpine and subtropical zones,respectively.Conclusions:The results indicated that sensitivity parameters of China's forest ecosystems change with climate gradient.We found that parameter calibration should be performed according to plant functional type(PFT),and more attention needs to be paid to the differences in climate and environment.These findings contribute to determining the target parameters in field experiments and model calibration.
文摘In order to analyze the stability of the underground rock structures,knowing the sensitivity of geomechanical parameters is important.To investigate the priority of these geomechanical properties in the stability of cavern,a sensitivity analysis has been performed on a single cavern in various rock mass qualities according to RMR using Phase 2.The stability of cavern has been studied by investigating the side wall deformation.Results showed that most sensitive properties are coefficient of lateral stress and modulus of deformation.Also parameters of Hoek-Brown criterion and r c have no sensitivity when cavern is in a perfect elastic state.But in an elasto-plastic state,parameters of Hoek-Brown criterion and r c affect the deformability;such effect becomes more remarkable with increasing plastic area.Other parameters have different sensitivities concerning rock mass quality(RMR).Results have been used to propose the best set of parameters for study on prediction of sidewall displacement.
文摘Reservoir performance prediction is one of the main steps during a field development plan.Due to the complexity and time-consuming aspects of numerical simulators,it is helpful to develop analytical tools for a rapid primary analysis.The capacitance-resistance model(CRM)is a simple technique for reservoir management and optimization.This method is an advanced time-dependent material balance equation which is combined with a productivity equation.CRM uses production/injection data and bottom-hole pressure as inputs to build a reliable model,which is then combined with the oil-cut model and converted to a predictive tool.CRM has been studied thoroughly for water flooding projects.In this study,a modified model for gas flooding systems based on gas density and average reservoir pressure is developed.A detailed procedure is described in a synthetic reservoir model using a genetic algorithm.Then,a streamline simulation is implemented for validation of the results.The results show that the proposed model is able to calculate interwell connectivity parameters and oil production rates.Moreover,a sensitivity analysis is carried out to investigate effects of drawdown pressure and gas PVT properties on the new model.Finally,acceptable ranges of input data and limitations of the model are comprehensively discussed.
基金Funded by Doctoral Program Foundation of Institutions of Higher Education of China(20070487403)Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province of China(2006ABA71)
文摘This paper presents an acoustic design sensitivity(ADS)analysis on sound radiation of structures by using the boundary element method(BEM).We calculated the velocity distribution of the thin plate by analytical method and the surface sound pressure by Rayleigh integral,and expressed the sound radiation power of the structure in a positive definite quadratic form of the Hermitian with an impedance matrix.The ADS analysis of the plate was thus translated into the analysis of structure dynamic sensitivity and ...
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(10272109)
文摘In order to understand the effect of hardening ductility parameters and softening ductility parameters of the concrete damage plastic model in LS-DYNA,a sensitivity and reliability analysis of these parameters through a convenient cube unit test was conducted. The results showed that the peak strength strain was independent of the hardening ductility parameter DH,but affected by AH,BH,and CH. The softening ductility was mainly related to the softening ductility parameter AS,but not affected by the damage ductility exponent BS. In case that the model with default parameters failed to match the AS-controlled damage softening phase,an optimized model with an AS correction was developed. The corrected model with the AS value of 2 matched well with the code model,and exhibited good feasibility in predicting the stress-strain curve of different grades of concrete. Moreover,the practicability of the corrected model was further validated by the conventional triaxial test. The simulated curve exhibited favorable consistence with the trial curve. Therefore,the model with parameter correction could provide a prospective reference for predicting the mechanical properties of concrete.
文摘Many products always operate under various complex environment conditions. To describe the dynamic influence of environment factors on their reliability, a method of reliability sensitivity analysis is proposed. In this method, the location parameter is assumed as a function of relevant environment variables while the scale parameter is assumed as an unknown positive constant. Then, the location parameter function is constructed by using the method of radial basis function. Using the varied environment test data, the log-likelihood function is transformed to a generalized linear expression by describing the indicator as Poisson variable. With the generalized linear model, the maximum likelihood estimations of the model coefficients are obtained. With the reliability model, the reliability sensitivity is obtained. An instance analysis shows that the method is feasible to analyze the dynamic variety characters of reliability along with environment factors and is straightforward for engineering application.
基金the financial support from the China Postdoctora Science Foundation (project No. 2021M690406)the financial supports from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (project Nos. 51708521, 51778183)
文摘The structural response of a single-layer reticulated dome to external explosions is shaped by many variables,and the associated uncertainties imply non-deterministic results.Existing deterministic methods for predicting the consequences of specific explosions do not account for these uncertainties.Therefore,the impact of the uncertainties associated with these input variables on the structures’response needs to be studied and quantified.In this study,a parametric uncertainty analysis was conducted first.Then,local and global sensitivity analyses were carried out to identify the drivers of the structural dynamic response.A probabilistic structural response model was established based on sensitive variables and a reasonable sample size.Furthermore,some deterministic empirical methods for explosion-resistance design,including the plane blast load model of CONWEP,the curved blast load model under the 50%assurance level,and the 20%mass-increased method,were used for evaluating their reliability.The results of the analyses revealed that the structural response of a single-layer reticulated dome to an external blast loading is lognormally distributed.Evidently,the MB0.5 method based on the curved reflector load model yielded results with a relatively stable assurance rate and reliability,but CONWEP did not;thus,the 1.2MB0.5 method can be used for making high-confidence simple predictions.In addition,the results indicated that the structural response is very sensitive to the explosion parameters.Based on these results,it is suggested that for explosion proofing,setting up a defensive barrier is more effective than structural strengthening.
文摘LHD's are expensive vehicles; therefore, it is important to accurately define the financial consequences associated with the investment of purchasing the mining equipment. This study concentrates on longterm incremental and sensitivity analysis to determine whether it is feasible to incorporate current battery technology into these machines. When revenue was taken into account, decreasing the amount of haulage in battery operated equipment by 5% or 200 kg per h amounts to a $4.0 × 10~4 loss of profit per year. On average it was found that using battery operated equipment generated $9.5 × 10~4 more in income annually, reducing the payback period from seven to two years to pay back the additional $1.0 × 10~5 investment of buying battery powered equipment over cheaper diesel equipment. Due to the estimated 5% increase in capital, it was observed that electric vehicles must possess a lifetime that is a minimum of one year longer than that of diesel equipment.
文摘Sensitivity analysis is one of the effective methods in the dynamic modification. The sensitivity of the modal parameters such as the natural frequencies and mode shapes in undamped free vibration of mechanical transmission system is analyzed in this paper.In particular,the sensitivities of the modal parameters to physical parameters of shaft system such as the inertia and stiffness are given.A calculation formula for dynamic modification is presented based on the analysis of modal parameter.With a mechanical transmission system as an example, the sensitivities of natural frequencies and modes shape are calculated and analyzed. Furthermore, the dynamic modification is also carried out and a good result is obtained.
文摘A fault sensitivity analysis（FSA）-resistance model based on time randomization is proposed.The randomization unit is composed of two parts,namely the configurable register array（R-A）and the decoder（chiefly random number generator,RNG）.In this way,registers chosen can be either valid or invalid depending on the configuration information generated by the decoder.Thus,the fault sensitivity information can be confusing.Meanwhile,based on this model,a defensive scheme is designed to resist both fault sensitivity analysis（FSA）and differential power analysis（DPA）.This scheme is verified with our experiments.
文摘A class of generalized parametric implicit quasi-variational inequalities is studied. Thereupon a new existence theorem of the solutions is proved and sensitivity of solutions for this kind of problems is analyzed.
基金supported by 111 Project (No.D21025)Open Fund Project of State Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Reservoir Geology and Exploitation (Nos.PLN2021-01,PLN2021-02,PLN2021-03)+2 种基金High-end Foreign Expert Introduction Program (No.G2021036005L)National Key Research and Development Program (No.2021YFC2800903)National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.U20B6005-05)。
文摘During the operational process of natural gas gathering and transmission pipelines,the formation of hydrates is highly probable,leading to uncontrolled movement and aggregation of hydrates.The continuous migration and accumulation of hydrates further contribute to the obstruction of natural gas pipelines,resulting in production reduction,shutdowns,and pressure build-ups.Consequently,a cascade of risks is prone to occur.To address this issue,this study focuses on the operational process of natural gas gathering and transmission pipelines,where a comprehensive framework is established.This framework includes theoretical models for pipeline temperature distribution,pipeline pressure distribution,multiphase flow within the pipeline,hydrate blockage,and numerical solution methods.By analyzing the influence of inlet temperature,inlet pressure,and terminal pressure on hydrate formation within the pipeline,the sensitivity patterns of hydrate blockage risks are derived.The research indicates that reducing inlet pressure and terminal pressure could lead to a decreased maximum hydrate formation rate,potentially mitigating pipeline blockage during natural gas transportation.Furthermore,an increase in inlet temperature and terminal pressure,and a decrease in inlet pressure,results in a displacement of the most probable location for hydrate blockage towards the terminal station.However,it is crucial to note that operating under low-pressure conditions significantly elevates energy consumption within the gathering system,contradicting the operational goal of energy efficiency and reduction of energy consumption.Consequently,for high-pressure gathering pipelines,measures such as raising the inlet temperature or employing inhibitors,electrical heat tracing,and thermal insulation should be adopted to prevent hydrate formation during natural gas transportation.Moreover,considering abnormal conditions such as gas well production and pipeline network shutdowns,which could potentially trigger hydrate formation,the installation of methanol injection connectors remains necessary to ensure production safety.
文摘Understanding the steady mechanism of biomass smoldering plays a great role in the utilization of smoldering technology.In this study numerical analysis of steady smoldering of biomass rods was performed.A two-dimensional(2D)steady model taking into account both char oxidation and pyrolysis was developed on the basis of a calculated propagation velocity according to empirical correlation.The model was validated against the smoldering experiment of biomass rods under natural conditions,and the maximum error was smaller than 31%.Parameter sensitivity analysis found that propagation velocity decreases significantly while oxidation area and pyrolysis zone increase significantly with the increasing diameter of rod fuel.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(52106284)the Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province(B2021507001)support of Project to Promote Innovation in Doctoral Research at CPPU(BSKY202302).
文摘The combustion and explosion characteristics of lithium-ion battery vent gas is a key factor in determining the fire hazard of lithium-ion batteries.Investigating the combustion and explosion hazards of lithium-ion batteries vent gas can provide guidance for rescue and protection in explosion accidents in energy storage stations and new energy vehicles,thereby promoting the application and development of lithium-ion batteries.Based on this understanding and combined with previous research on gas production from lithium-ion batteries,this article conducted a study on the combustion and explosion risks of vent gas from thermal runaway of 18650 LFP batteries with different states of charge(SOCs).The explosion limit of mixed gases affected by carbon dioxide inert gas is calculated through the“elimination”method,and the Chemkin-Pro software is used to numerically simulate the laminar flame speed and adiabatic flame temperature of the battery vent gas.And the concentration of free radicals and sensitivity coefficients of major elementary reactions in the system are analyzed to comprehensively evaluate the combustion explosion hazard of battery vent gas.The study found that the 100%SOC battery has the lowest explosion limit of the vent gas.The inhibitory elementary reaction sensitivity coefficient in the reaction system is lower and the concentration of free radicals is higher.Therefore,it has the maximum laminar flame speed and adiabatic flame temperature.The combustion and explosion hazard of battery vent gas increases with the increase of SOC,and the risk of explosion is the greatest and most harmful when SOC reaches 100%.However,the related hazards decrease to varying degrees with overcharging of the battery.This article provides a feasible method for analyzing the combustion mechanism of vent gas from lithium-ion batteries,revealing the impact of SOC on the hazardousness of battery vent gas.It provides references for the safety of storage and transportation of lithium-ion batteries,safety protection of energy storage stations,and the selection of related fire extinguishing agents.
文摘In order to study the influence of parameters on durability of marine concrete structures, the parameter＇s sensitivity analysis was studied in this paper. With the Fick＇s 2nd law of diffusion and the deterministic sensitivity analysis method （DSA）, the sensitivity factors of apparent surface chloride content, apparent chloride diffusion coefficient and its time dependent attenuation factor were analyzed. The results of the analysis show that the impact of design variables on concrete durability was different. The values of sensitivity factor of chloride diffusion coefficient and its time dependent attenuation factor were higher than others. Relative less error in chloride diffusion coefficient and its time dependent attenuation coefficient induces a bigger error in concrete durability design and life prediction. According to probability sensitivity analysis （PSA）, the influence of mean value and variance of concrete durability design variables on the durability failure probability was studied. The results of the study provide quantitative measures of the importance of concrete durability design and life prediction variables. It was concluded that the chloride diffusion coefficient and its time dependent attenuation factor have more influence on the reliability of marine concrete structural durability. In durability design and life prediction of marine concrete structures, it was very important to reduce the measure and statistic error of durability design variables.
文摘A comparative study of Frequency Ratio(FR)and Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)models are performed for forest fire risk(FFR)mapping in Melghat Tiger Reserve forest,central India.Identification of FFR depends on various hydrometeorological parameters altitude,slope,aspect,topographic position index,normalized differential vegetation index,rainfall,air temperature,land surface temperature,wind speed,distance to settlements,and distance by road are integrated using a GIS platform.The results from FR and AHP show similar trends.The FR model was significantly higher accurate(overall accuracy of 81.3%,kappa statistic 0.78)than the AHP model(overall accuracy 79.3%,kappa statistic 0.75).The FR model total forest fire risk areas were classified into five classes:very low(7.1%),low(22.2%),moderate(32.3%),high(26.9%),and very high(11.5%).The AHP fire risk classes were very low(6.7%),low(21.7%),moderate(34.0%),high(26.7%),and very high(10.9%).Sensitivity analyses were performed for AHP and FR models.The results of the two different models are compared and justified concerning the forest fire sample points(Forest Survey of India)and burn images(2010-2016).These results help in designing more effective fire management plans to improve the allocation of resources across a landscape framework.
文摘The paper introduces some findings about a sensitivity analysis conducted on every geometrical and mechanical parameters which characterize the use of a railway superstructure at the high velocity. This analysis was carried out by implementing a forecast model that is derived from the simplified Gazetas and Dobry one. This model turns out to be particularly appropriate in the explication of problems connected to high velocity, since it evaluates both inertial and viscous effects activated by the moving load speed. The model implementation requires the transfer function determination that represents the action occurred by the bed surfaces on the railway and it therefore contains information concerning the geometrical and the mechanical characteristics of the embankment, of the ballast and of the sub-ballast. The transfer function H has been evaluated with the finite elements method and particularly, by resorting the ANSYS code with a harmonic structural analysis in the frequencies field. The authors, from the critic examination of the system＇s dynamics response in its entirety, glean a series of observations both of a general and a specific character, finally attaining a propose of a design modification of the standard railway superstructure at the high velocity of train operation adopted today especially in Italy.
